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EXPERT RACING TIPS: NEWMARKET

NEWMARKET OVERVIEW | Newmarket Future Champions Festival, Cesarewitch/Dewhurst Day

Rail: true

Track Conditions: soft

Expected advantage: Stand’s side rail should be a tavellator at this point. Anything drawn the fence or able to cross and hold the rail should be going close and get every advantage in the run.

Newmakert’s season concludes tonight with the G1 Dewhurst for the 2yos complemented by the marathon that is the Cesarewitch Handicap with a handful of black type races to boot.

RACE 1

6. PER CONTRA
2. ANCIENT WISDOM
3. ARABIC LEGEND
4. CHIEF LITTLE ROCK

RORY FLANAGAN’S ANALYSIS

PER CONTRA looked a raw, unrefined talent at his first two runs and there may still be more to come. He beat very little but still did it in a manner where other horses could easily have thrown the race away. I think he’s definite value in this and worth an each way play around the $13 mark.
ANCIENT WISDOM was one on of my top picks as 2yos to follow and whilst he disappointed last start, the winner of that race has gone on to win the Lagardere G1 in France so the form is outstanding.
ARABIC LEGEND has a bit to find on the former and CHIEF LITTLE ROCK next best.

Betting Strategy

Back PER CONTRA 1.25u ew

Back ANCIENT WISDOM 3.5u

RACE 2

3. CITY OF TROY
2. ARRAY
1. ALYANAABI
7. IBERIAN

RORY FLANAGAN’S ANALYSIS

CITY OF TROY may not run here if the ground doesn’t dry out. Coolmore chickened out in controversial fashion, scratching him from the G1 National half an hour before the jump so he needs to add a G1 to the stallion page with a win here. His quote looks prohibitive for a trainer who thinks he doesn’t go a yard in the wet so I’d rather not take him on and just bet without fav. ARRAY improves with racing and might find some more once again to take a silver medal here. Should be half the price he currently is.
ALYANAABI came rattling home to win here last start and might be the next big thing to come from Shadwell. Not sure what ground suits best at this stage, but his fnishing burst is mightily impressive.
IBERIAN a shout if it rains more and doesn’t dry.

Betting Strategy

Back ARRAY 1.5u without fav

Back ALYANAABI 2.5u without fav

RACE 3

11. LOT OF JOY
7. THE VERY MAN
3. JACKFINBAR
21. GOSHEN
12. THE SHUNTER

RORY FLANAGAN’S ANALYSIS

Quite often you see winners of this race come via one of the rails. I’m leaning towards the near-side rail being the place to be in the field of 30+ and if they all shift over, the widest draws are likely to be advantageous. I’ve gone for a few value selections on either flank, with solid soft ground form and hope one of them gets up.
As always, playing into the bigger places market you get on betfair than the corps.

Betting Strategy

0.5u EACH WAY on #11 #7 #3 #21 #12

0.5u EACH WAY on #11 #7 #3 #21 #12

0.5u EACH WAY on #11 #7 #3 #21 #12

0.5u EACH WAY on #11 #7 #3 #21 #12

0.5u EACH WAY on #11 #7 #3 #21 #12

RACE 4

1. ARABIAN CROWN
4. GASPER DE LEMOS
3. DAMBUSTER
5. MERIBELLA

RORY FLANAGAN’S ANALYSIS

We’ll get an indication of the form for this race in R1 so expect to see ARABIAN CROWN’s price be dictated by what Arabic Legend does. He ran out a convincing winner at Salisbury and if that form stacks up there’s every chance the money will come.
GASPER DE LEMOS steps up sharply in trip and the way Justify progeny are going he could hack up here. Softer going shouldn’t be an issue and he’s definitely one to watch for next year, I expect him to see this out strongly.
DAMBUSTER AND MERIBELLA both solid on debut winning well, next best.

Betting Strategy

Back ARABIAN CROWN 4u

RACE 5

2. DUBAI FUTURE
10. SILVER SWORD
5. SIR BUSKER
9. REAL GAIN

RORY’S ANALYSIS

Not keen to bet here, absolute mess of a race with dry trackers galore and the wet trackers badly out of form on soft ground. It’s a lottery.

Betting Strategy


RACE 6

2. JAMES’S DELIGHT
5. BLUE PRINCE
6. WELCOME DREAM
12. FAIR ANGELLICA

 

RORY’S ANALYSIS

JAMES’S DELIGHT looked a handy type on debut and ran crediabtly in big fields at his next two starts. Could be more to come and I feel like the step up in distance will benefit. R Moore booking is eye catching.
BLUE PRINCE has been to the well quite a few times now as a 2yo and you’ll get a run for your money with how consistent he is. I imagine he’ll look like getting involved at some point, the question is the 1400m uphill.
WELCOME DREAM is a map bet for me, as I expect them to come near side. If they’re not doing that on the day, don’t bet.
FAIR ANGELLICA needs to transfer synthetic form to soft ground turf and it’s rare to see that occur.

Betting Strategy

Back JAMES’S DELIGHT 1.5u


Back WELCOME DREAM 1.5u

RACE 7

7. MINNETONKA
12. UNEQUAL LOVE
1. PERDIKA
5. FRANKNESS

RORY FLANAGAN’S ANALYSIS

MINNETONKA has been running much, much better than a 40-1 chance should be in this race. In the first two at her last 4 runs, she’s finally finding some consistency and should have bolted in here behind Kinta two starts ago. The jockey sat motionless with her having nowhere to go for a long time and she got out when the winner was off and gone. She was also nabbed for a turn of foot at Wolves next time. Soft ground with some of the speedy types blunted could suit here, big value.
UNEQUAL LOVE beat Minnetonka at Ponte so if I’m trusting that form I have to have her onside here. She’s been super consistent, the one blip coming with lameness.
PERDIKA ran a blinder at Longchamp but had the track bias to assist so she’s unders for this.
FRANKNESS is a barrier rogue but talented.

Betting Strategy

Back MINNETONKA 1u ew


Back UNEQUAL LOVE

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