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EXPERT RACING TIPS: NEWMARKET

NEWMARKET OVERVIEW

Rail: True

Track Conditions: Good

8. WINTER SNOWFALL
4. KALPANA
2. FRIENDLY SOUL
6. LUNAR ECLIPSE

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) #8 WINTER SNOWFALL for 3 units (Rated at: $2.50)

I thought WINTER SNOWFALL would start favourite but it seems the market is framed around the 10L win by KALPANA here a fortnight ago. I think the strength of Winter Snowfall’s form is vastly superior to that of Kalpana, who only beat average types in that 10L win.
Winter Snowfall had too much class for Danielle, and that horse went and won a maiden by 12L next time. Winter Snowfall just needs to answer the synth to turf question to be a winning chance.

6. RUNNING LION
1. SILVER LADY
2. ASTRAL BEAU
3. CAERNARFON

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) #6 RUNNING LION for 2.5 units (Rated at: $2.50)

RUNNING LION seems to enjoy this track more than others and she’s better suited at this trip than the Oaks distances she was running last season. Should make her own luck up on speed and be hard to get past with the main danger coming from SILVER LADY down the centre of the course. She was pulled up here last season but bounced back with a good win in Dubai.

10. BAGUE D’OR
8. ADJUVANT
1. NEW LONDON
3. HMS PRESIDENT

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) #8 ADJUVANT for 1.5 units (Rated at: $5.00)

ADJUVANT ran a cracking race here last year and gets a nice gap at the weights (6kg) with New London. Should be capable of making a long, sustained run uphill once more especially if freshness from New London forces him to commit early.

BACK (WIN) #10 BAGUE D’OR for 1.5 units (Rated at: $5.00)

This horse flies fresh and has good form on tough tracks. He’s only missed the top two on one occasion from 9 starts on good surfaces, and only missed the top two once from 5 fresh runs. He’s going to be thereabouts and Barzalona takes the ride when normally he’d only really be interested in feature races.

1. CINDERELLA’S DREAM
2. DANCE SEQUENCE
16. YLANG YLANG
6. PORTA FORTUNA

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) #1 CINDERELLA’S DREAM for 1.5 units (Rated at: $6.00)

CINDERELLA’S DREAM was ridiculous when she won in Dubai with no irons. Yes, the depth of that form is pathetic but the manner she won in was something only a supremely talented horse is capable of. If the race unfolds on her flank, I think she’s a massive price. They’ve changed course with her late entry as she’s shocked everyone with how much progress she’s made.

BACK (WIN) #2 DANCE SEQUENCE for 2 units (Rated at: $4.00)

DANCE SEQUENCE should have won here last year, her rivals that finished 1st, 3rd and 4th were all drawn low, whilst she had stall 8. The barrier simply beat her that day but she only went down a narrow margin which tells me there’s more to come from her if things go her way this time. I’ve adopted the Coroebus strategy again this year and opted to back the two Godolphin runners drawn opposing flanks and hope the slow lane is in the middle once more.

7. MOUNTAIN BREEZE
4. LUCKY GIFT
2. BALLET SHOW
5. MADEMOISELLE

Betting Strategy

No Bet. Unseen debutants, no thanks.

1. AL QUDRA
4. SYMBOL OF HONOUR
5. THE ACTOR
7. YAROOGH

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

Tough maiden. Leave me out.

2. BLACK RUN
5. MAI DUBAI
4. SEA THE THUNDER
3. CYNOSURE

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) #2 BLACK RUN for 1.5 units (Rated at: $4.00)

This horse impressed me as a 2yo and I’m completely ignoring the Longchamp run. He was $7 out to $16 in 10min before the race and that tells me something was off. This is so much easier than being thrown in the deep end with French classic colts. Just needs to handle the dip and he can bounce back with Aussie Tom giving him the kitchen sink.

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