LONGCHAMP | PRIX DE L’ARC DETRIOMPHE
Rail: True, with cutaway in straight revealing fresh ground
Track Conditions: Good
Expected advantage: Leading, close to fence, or 10 lanes off in home straight. 1000m course hard against rail.
We’ve reached the summit of the French racing season, culminating in the $8m Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday night accompanied by a bagful of Group 1s and 2s to complement it.
It’s the fastest ground we’ve seen for some time and it might expose some of the recent soft track form we’ve seen. I’m expecting the rail to play advantageously and the speeds to be even tempo as most jockeys look to find an advantageous position on the rail.
RACE 1 | #4 BEAUVATIER
Looks arguably one of the top if not the top colts in France and now has to face the overseas invasion. Hasn’t looked like losing at any point in his career thus far and should loom up and look the winner once more.
5. HENRY ADAMS
BEAUVATIER looks arguably one of the top if not the top colts in France and now has to face the overseas invasion. Hasn’t looked like losing at any point in his career thus far and should loom up and look the winner once more.
HENRY ADAMS will lob on speed and attempt to make all, and I feel there is a price to take based on the fact Moore is on the stablemate when there isn’t all that much between them.
ROSALLION didn’t like the soft ground at Doncaster last time and now gets the ideal conditions to bounce back. Al Musmak ran a decent race at Newmarket last night to give the form some credibility.
UNQUESTIONABLE has probably needed 1400m for a while and now gets it.
BACK (WIN): BEAUVATIER 4u
BACK (WIN): HENRY ADAMS 1u
4. LES PAVOTS
9. OPERA SINGER
3. ROSE BLOOM
JULICA has looked top class in her career to date, winning by wide margins and travelling powerfully. She’s fetched a big price this week and connections will be seeking immediate success and she might be a star in the making.
LES PAVOTS has looked better at 1400m than at sprinting trips so stepping up to the mile should be okay. Her form through Ramatuelle is some of the best in europe.
OPERA SINGER will be ridden to the front i imagine and make use of the moved rail and fresh ground. It’s not uncommon to see leaders win here in the early races on Arc day.
ROSE BLOOM was slick in the Arqana sales race on debut and backed it up as no fluke when bolting in as fav at Chantilly. She could be anything and will love the ground.
BACK (WIN): JULICA 2u
BACK (WIN): LES PAVOTS 1u
BACK (WIN): ROSE BLOOM 1u
RACE 4 | PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE
13. ACE IMPACT
12. FEED THE FLAME
9. THROUGH SEVEN SEAS
It may well be that the Arc is decided by the barriers this year and the three year olds look advantageously positioned.
ACE IMPACT has burned off all challengers thus far and enjoyed the good tempos set by Big Rock. He should be getting clear air down the outside when it’s go time and will look the winner at some point. The acceleration he possesses is unlike anything else in this field.
FEED THE FLAME cannot afford to be tardy from stall 2 and needs to make use of it as the rail should prove hot. If buried far back on the fence he’ll have nowhere to go. That said, he’s shown some serious turn of foot to win his races and the GPDP win was explosive.
If it’s a paradise for those on-speed then WESTOVER might just be the map bet. He holds Equinox form which is the best on earth, and only got touched off by Hukum in the King George who had Crowley breach the whip rules. The ground will be no issue and that reopposing rival is drawn the carpark so a soft run along the rail will be a boost provided the entire settles.
If I am to stick with the loyalty to Equinox form then THROUGH SEVEN SEAS must be included. He ran a luckless 2nd to the world’s best last start and gets the most Japanese-like going for the Arc in recent years. This is their best chance to take home the biggest prize in Europe and he’s drawn to play a part.
BACK (WIN): ACE IMPACT 4.5u
BACK (WIN): WESTOVER 2u
BACK (WIN): FEED THE FLAME 2u
BACK (WIN): THROUGH SEVEN SEAS 1.5u
12. BLUE ROSE CEN
6. JANNAH ROSE
3. AL HUSN
BLUE ROSE CEN has been given two stinkers at her last two runs but connections have kept faith with Lemaitre. She’ll be ridden to he front or lead once again and grind all the way to the line, and gate 1 is the perfect draw for her.
JANNAH ROSE has shown a powerful finishing burst in all her runs to date but had too many lengths to find when 6th in the Diane behind Blue Rose Cen. She bounced back with a G2 success over Lumiere Rock who franked the form by winning next time out.
AL HUSN would be shorter in price if she never contested the Yorkshire Oaks when failing to get the trip. Back down to 2000m she’s suited here and drawn well.
German raider MUSKOKA is seriously talented but it’s hard to align the form.
BACK (WIN) BLUE ROSE CEN 4u
BACK (WIN) JANNAH ROSE 1.5u
BACK (WIN) AL HUSN 1.5u
1. TUDO BEM
Simply this is a draw bias strategy. You don’t win this race from wide gates and badly out of form 50-1 shots can often fill the placings. Highfield Princess and co have it all to do from out wide on fast ground.
BACK (E/W) PERDIKA 0.5u ew
BACK (E/W) TUDO BEM 0.5u ew
BACK (E/W) PONNTOS 1u ew
5. KING GOLD
7. BREIZH SKY
KINROSS has been a best bet for me at his last two and he’s got almost everything in his favour again. Drawn behind decent pace he’ll be bang there at the finish but I just feel the ground might be a little jarring for him so I’m going to save on him and back KING GOLD and BREIZH SKY to upset the apple cart.
KING GOLD has won three of his last four at this track and looked impressive winning the Prix De Gheest. He’s yet to miss a place at this trip.
BREIZH SKY will have company for the lead but hopefully Murphy lands 4th the fence here if he does get crossed by the likes of Fang and Pogo. He’s threatened to win a G1 and is an honest trier who just falls short each time. Today might be the day on ground he likes at a track he likes.
SAUTERNE should enjoy being off the speed if they go way too hard in from battling to control the race. Expect her flying down the outside late on if she hasn’t missed the boat.
BACK (WIN) KINROSS 3u
BACK (E/W) KING GOLD 0.75u ew
BACK (E/W) BREIZH SKY 0.75u ew