FEATURE PREVIEWS: GOLDEN SLIPPER

Group 1 | Set Weights, Two-Years-Old, Apprentices cannot claim | $5,000,000 | Rail: +3m | Track Conditions: Good 4

30 Fillies have won the Golden Slipper with Lady Of Camelot achieving that feat last year and Fireburn winning in 2022.

5 Blue Diamond winners have gone on to win the Slipper with Sepoy the most recent back in 2011. Manikato did the double in 1978.

The winners have been spread amazingly evenly through the lead up races with the Silver Silver and Reisling producing 7 winners apiece, and the Todman and Magic Night producing 6 winners.

Barriers:

From 67 Golden Slippers the most prolific winning barrier is Barrier 1 with 10 wins.
• Barriers 1 to 4 have won 26 times
• 5-8 have won 16 times
• 9-12 have won 16 times
• 13-16 have won 9 times

Position In Running

There is an incredible piece of insight gleaned when you watch the replays of the past 20 Golden Slippers (wet tracks in red):
• 2004: Dance Hero from gate two led all the way on the rail
• 2005: Stratum from gate six led all the way on the rail
• 2006: Miss Finland from gate seven was at the back: well back and hugged the rail
• 2007: Forensics went from gate one: stayed on the rail
• 2008: Sebring from gate five settled well back and hugged the rail
• 2009: Phelan Ready from gate fifteen: dropped right back to last but hugged the rail
• 2010: Crystal Lily from gate one was on the rail
• 2011: Sepoy from gate eight was 3rd on the rail
• 2012: Pierro from gate one hugged the rail
• 2013: Overreach from gate one was third on the rail
• 2014: Mossfun missed the start from gate 11 and hugged the rail the whole way to win
• 2015: Vancouver sat 3 wide with cover and won
• 2016: Capitalist sat 3 back on the rails and came out in the straight to win
• 2017: She Will Reign made a beeline for the rails after a slow getaway and wins
• 2018: Estijaab led all the way on the rails
• 2019: Kiamichi led all the way on the rails, coming out in the straight
• 2020: Farnan led on the rails, coming out in the straight, placegetters both on the rails
• 2021: Stay inside sat in the 1×1 and won comfortably. Anamoe was last on the fence and ran 2nd
• 2022: Fireburn settled back from gate 1 and hugged the rails to the turn to win
• 2023: Shinzo settled midfield on the fence and hugged the rails to win

18 of the past 20 Golden Slipper winners were on the rails before the turn.

All 9 wet track Slippers were won by horses who stayed on the fence.

This is a remarkable insight for jockeys, jockey managers, trainers & owners to be aware of when forming their race day plans. For punters the challenge is finding those horses, given a lot comes down to luck in running and the intent, intelligence and/or instructions of the jockeys on board.

You can see a remarkably clear pattern there of recent Slipper winners over the last 20 years. You want to be on the fence. I have made this point for many years, and yet Fireburn got out to 300/1 in running in 2022 on Betfair despite being one of only 5 horses on the fence in the race and a $12 chance

• 8 winners had last start 14 days before the Slipper. 1 was 21 days because the races were pushed back 1 week.
  2. 7 winners had never run worse than 2nd in their life. 5 had only run out of the quinella once in their career.
  3. 11 winners had either 3 or 4 starts prior to the Golden Slipper (one had 5 runs prior to the Golden Slipper).
• Barriers 1-3 (6/36), Barriers 4-10 (0/84), Barriers 11-16 (6/70)
• Days since last start 7 (2/29), 14 (8/69), 21 (2/48), Other (0/44)
• Gear Changes (0/49)
• Career Starts 1-2 (0/27), 3-4 (11/133), 5+ (1/30)
• Career Wins 0-1 (1/76), 2 (4/76), 3 (6/27), 4+ (1/11)
• 1st up (0/8), 2nd up (2/28), 3rd up (6/71), 4th up (4/57), 5th up+ (0/26)
• Last Start 1200m (12/174), Last Start Under 1200m (0/16)
• 2nd last start 1100m (9/90), 1200m (3/72), Other (0/26)
• Colts (6/93), Fillies (6/93), Geldings (0/4)
• Same Jockey As Last Start Y (9/95), N (3/93)
• Trainer Waterhouse/Bott (4), Portelli (2), Hawkes (2)
• Won at Rosehill Y (8/65), N (4/125)
• Won at 1200 Y (9/94), N (3/96)
• Last Start Finishing Position 1 (8/83), 2 (3/83), 3+ (1/69)
• 2nd Last Start Finishing Position 1 (9/89), 2 (2/45), 3+ (1/54)
• Last start class G1 (0/33), G2/3 (12/144), Other (0/14)
• 2nd Last Start class G1 (0/14), G2 (7/46), G3/LR/OPN/SC (4/104), Other (0/24)
• Last start track Randwick/Rosehill (12/130), Other (0/60)
• Trained at Randwick/Rosehill/Warwick Farm (12/127), Other (0/61)

Lady of Camelot’s impressive victory last year at the $7.51 was 4.1% better than the corporate average after commission.

Shinzo was a relative upset in 2023 with a $16.10 price ($14.49 after commission).

Fireburn took the cake in 2022, hitting an enormous price in the run, but also opening at $18.60 which was a staggering 40% better than the corporate average.

Dare say the speed is strong in this years Slipper with #11 FARCITED and #15 BELLAZAINE from the Gai/Bott team likely to press forward and take up the running. #2 DEVIL NIGHT will want to replicate his on-speed Blue Diamond win and should go forward from 11 with #9 NORTH ENGLAND from 9. #7 SKYHOOK led and won the Pago Pago and #16 MARHOONA sat behind the leader last time out in the Reisling. #13 TEMPTED must hold a spot from the inside barrier. #2 WODETON draws 2 alongside #3 RIVELLINO and they will both want to be within striking distance of the leaders. All signs point to an above average tempo.

This looks a very even, and may we say, moderate edition of the Golden Slipper. Even since the first 2YO trials at Kensington back in September, we have been waiting for something to put their hand up and win a 2YO race by a big margin and stamp themselves as the horse to beat. We thought it may have been the highly spruiked #8 WODETON when he trounced his rivals on debut at a short price at Rosehill but he definitely has not set the world alight since. Nevertheless, here he is, as favourite yet again after being beaten his last couple.

#8 WODETON appeared to have every chance in the Todman, getting the dream run in transit and hitting the front before being trounced late by Tentyris. Waller is a master, and once this horse lost fresh and he didn’t need to worry about keeping Wodeton’s unbeaten record intact, we suggest everything was geared towards getting this horse to peak for this race. Barrier 2 & James McDonald are big advantages, and we are expecting him to be fighting out the finish.

#1 RIVELLINO has done nothing wrong, winning 3 from 3 and showing versatility in doing so. His win from the back in the Inglis Millenium was that of a good horse and he followed that up with a solid win in the Skyline against key rivals. He gets a chance to settle closer from barrier 3 and with Hugh Bowman taking the ride he looks a key chance.

The Blue Diamond looked a low rating race on paper, but the form has continued to stack up out of the race. #2 DEVIL NIGHT was the winner of that race at only his 2^nd race start, doing it tough from the front and fighting off all challengers. His debut run was super in the wrong part of the track, and he must be a chance. #4 TYCOON STAR also came through the Diamond and ran a brave 4^th in the Todman after being 3-wide throughout. From gate 5 he should get a much softer run and will run well. Think he looks value in the market. #13 TEMPTED is the other with the Diamond lead up form, coming from well back to be beaten 3.9L int 7^th there before a dominant win in the Resiling. Provided she gets the right breaks from barrier 1, she is a key player.

#7 SKYHOOK was a dominant winner of the Pago Pago when leading throughout on a day where it wasn’t easy to do so. He was desperately unlucky the start prior, and if he backs up, he is yet another winning chance. #12 WITHIN THE LAW has won down the straight, from 1000-1200m and shown a great will to win and chase hard. She has done nothing wrong and is in the hottest stable in the land in Bjorn Baker. With the predicted hot tempo, she seems to draw to get a perfect cart into the race and she must be a major winning hope.

Of the roughies, if #18 NEPOTISM gets a run, he will run a super race. He went very well on debut in the Todman without a lot of luck and few can win a slipper at start 2, but he is loaded with talent and must be included in exotics. The other one at a good price is #15 MILITARY TYCOON. We loved the trial before the dominant straight track win at Flemington last time out. The Maher camp wouldn’t bring him here if he couldn’t run a big race, and he is one we have a god opinion of. Think he is the best hope at odds and a genuine winning chance.

#12 WITHIN THE LAW
#15 MILITARY TYCOON
#4 TYCOON STAR
#8 WODETON