EPSOM PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY JUNE 7TH 2025
TRACK: Soft
First properly muddy Derby in an age looks to be on the cards and it’ll likely prove crucial to play the wings and get to either rail as opposed to being trapped in No Man’s Land dead centre.
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Best Bets
Rory Flanagan
BACK: 3. Delacroix (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $3.00)
Don’t see any reason to jump off Delacroix now that the rain has arrived. G1 placed in the mud, and has returned a fully furnished type who won both his prep runs with ease and a great deal of professionalism. The race will unfold for him how Coolmore decide it should unfold, but my guess is the Lion In Winter leads, Lambourn out the back and Delacroix sitting forward of midfield.
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Rory Flanagan
BACK: 7. Eye Of Dubai (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $2.80)
If this plays out how I expect it, EYE OF DUBAI should be able to romp this. If you price him off his run two starts ago he’d be a clear favourite for this, and simply ignore last time when drawn 20 and the action unfolded on the complete opposite flank on ground way too fast. He gets his toe in here and the ground should be fully chopped up for those drawn the fence, allowing him to storm over the top down the outside. The price must be attacked.
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8. Sparks Fly
5. Royal Dress
7. Skellet
6. Sirona
Betting Strategy
BACK: 8. Sparks Fly (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $4.50)
SPARKS FLY has an outstanding record in the wet and is almost undefeated when leading. 9 wins from 12 starts in rain-affected going should see her a lot shorter in the market than she is, especially if the track continues to favour those on-speed.
BACK: 5. Royal Dress (WIN) for 2 units
Royal Dress didn’t enjoy the hike in distance last time and stepping back down suits. Was given a howler in this race previously and should have bolted in 12 months ago but now has to be considered a clear favourite if the rain keeps falling.
3. Persica
4. Cairo
5. Docklands
2. Geography
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. Persica (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.75)
Persica should be favourite and seems to go much better with cut in the ground. It all went terribly wrong last time when pitched into a hot Lockinge with a leader bias on fast ground so this should suit much better. His course win, his liking for soft ground, his ability to corner better than Docklands should offset the weight he has to concede to him.
8. Convo
5. Mademoiselle
13. Rajeteriat
16. Cape Sovereign
Betting Strategy
BACK: 8. Convo (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)
He’s going to need luck but that’s probably why there’s something of a price about CONVO who is the only true mudlark in the field. They’ll go like mad downhill here and the speed will be on so if able to get a gap he’s going to be the one arriving hardest late on under the pumping drive of Marquand.
BACK: 5. Mademoiselle (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.00)
Killed by the bias at Goodwood last time vs Ruby’s Profit, and there’s every chance she’s going to cop the same here again but if they shift over to the far side she might be able to take up the running and she’s a better horse than her rival who is half the price.
BACK: 16. Cape Sovereign (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)
Cape Sovereign ran a blinder last time, missing the start and coming past 18 rivals in a field of 22 for 4th. The start prior there was enough early toe to bounce out and lead, collared late on for a game 2nd. If able to ping the lids here and fly downhill it’s probably the horse with the longest-lasting top gear in the field and remarkable consistency despite being a maiden.
9. The Bell Conductor
4. Spartan Arrow
6. Tees Spirit
10. Fair Wind
Betting Strategy
BACK: 9. The Bell Conductor (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)
The Bell Conductor ran a cracker in this last year considering he tried to live with Democracy Dilemma’s unsustainable pace along the fence. That horse won’t get the rail this time and if he’s able to dictate terms along the grandstand he should be the one they have to catch.
BACK: 4. Spartan Arrow (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.50)
Spartan Arrow was very good here a month ago, riding the pace and pulling well clear of the field. A repeat of that would almost be enough to take this out and having the stand’s rail to help will make life easier provided he’s away cleanly.
BACK: 10. Fair Wind (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)
Fair Wind has been in the forgive file his last two. Drawn the carpark at a biased Chester and stayed in the gates after pre-race chaos at Goodwood. The last time he actually got a fair crack he bolted in at Ascot. If he jumps, he’s a live chance.
3. Delacroix
5. Lambourn
16. Tennessee Stud
7. Midak
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. Delacroix (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $3.00)
Don’t see any reason to jump off Delacroix now that the rain has arrived. G1 placed in the mud, and has returned a fully furnished type who won both his prep runs with ease and a great deal of professionalism. The race will unfold for him how Coolmore decide it should unfold, but my guess is the Lion In Winter leads, Lambourn out the back and Delacroix sitting forward of midfield.
BACK: 16. Tennessee Stud (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)
Tennessee Stud had similar 2yo form to Delacroix and it culminated in a G1 success albeit in a paltry field. He’s on par with Lambourn for mine and should be a similar price. He gets his soggy ground preference and a genuine staying test that will sap a lot of the field and he could shock at odds.
BACK: 5. Lambourn + 7. Midak (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)
Backing both Midak and Lambourn as the two most dour types on stride pattern data who have proven themselves on soft ground. Midak will lob forward, Lambourn likely out the back. Both look bred for the job and will likely get even further. The wetter the better for them.
2. Valvano
14. Small Fry
8. Sam Hawkens
6. Candyman Stan
Betting Strategy
Pass
5. Warhawk
7. Chartwell Jock
2. The Trickster
3. Hornsea Bay
Betting Strategy
Another one I’m not strong on
7. Eye Of Dubai
6. Circe
8. Orne
1. Get It
Betting Strategy
BACK: 7. Eye Of Dubai (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $2.80)
If this plays out how I expect it, EYE OF DUBAI should be able to romp this. If you price him off his run two starts ago he’d be a clear favourite for this, and simply ignore last time when drawn 20 and the action unfolded on the complete opposite flank on ground way too fast. He gets his toe in here and the ground should be fully chopped up for those drawn the fence, allowing him to storm over the top down the outside. The price must be attacked.
EPSOM TIPS
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