FEATURE PREVIEWS: EPSOM HANDICAP

Epsom Handicap tips are provided by Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments. Dean provides an extensive preview of the Group 1 race at Randwick, with historical data, speed map, race analysis, key selections and betting strategies.

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Dean Evans

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EPSOM HANDICAP

Always a great race over the Randwick mile, won lately by some topliners including Winx, Private Eye, Top Ranked, Kolding, and Probabeel.

Historical Profiling (last 13 years)

 2nd up (3/28), 3rd up (8/90), 4th up (2/61), 5th up+ (1/22)
 7-day break (3/30), 14-day break (8/95), 21-day break (3/30), Other (0/46)
 8/84 winners have drawn barrier 10 or worse, all in fields of 13+. Only 4/65 winners have
drawn barriers 1-5, and 3 were in small 10 horse fields.
 9/124 geldings and 3/41 mares (including Winx) have won, although 2 other mares were 2nd
beaten a nose. Entires 2/36 deadheated in 2022.
 Tab Number 1-12 (13/146), 13-22 (1/55)
 Weight 50-51 (2/50), 52 (5/57), 53-55 (1/61), 56-58 (6/33)
 Gear Change (0/21)
 Randwick Wins 0 (1/92), 1-2 (12/90), 3-5 (1/19)
 Last Start Saturday (14/168), Other (0/33)
 Last Start G1 (2/48), G2/G3 (12/134), Other (0/19)
 Last Start QLTY (6/44), HCP (5/83), WFA (3/60), SWP (0/14)
 Last Start Settling Position 1-3 (3/65), 4-7 (9/78), 8+ (2/58)
 Last Start Odds $1-$4 (9/58), $5-$10 (5/105), $20+ (0/38)
 Last Start Randwick (8/96), Rosehill (5/53), Other (1/52)
 4yo (8/72), 5yo (2/54), 6yo (1/38), 7yo+ (3/37)
 Career Starts 7-21 (12/127), 22-55 (2/74)
 Career Wins 1-3 (1/36), 4-10 (13/165)
 Has been a mix of leadup races (George Main & Bill Ritchie most common), but the key constant
has been strong performances in the last leadup. Out of form horses struggle.
 Last Start Winner (7/45), 2nd-4th (7/91), 5 th + (0/65)
 Last Start Beaten Margin 1L or less (13/119), 2L+ (1/82)
 Chris Waller has won 5 of the last 11, and run 2nd another 5 times
 Last Start Distance 1200-1300 (1/20), 1400 (6/62), 1500 (3/51), 1600 (3/60), 1800-2000 (1/8)
 Exchange Rank 1-4 (11/52), 5-7 (3/39), 8+ (0/110)
 Official Handicap Rating 0-90 (1/68), 100 (9/110), 110 (4/23)

SPEED MAP

Royal Patronage rates clearly on top and looks the one to beat.
Tom Kitten, My Oberon, Mchale, Kovalica and Ceolwulf all chances.
Berkshire Shadow, Molly Bloom, Kintyre and Chrysaor could surprise at odds.

KEY CHANCES

1. My Oberon – Ran 2nd beaten a nose in the Doncaster on a heavy track 18 months ago. Ran 3rd in the King Charles last prep, and 2nd in the 7 Stakes last start. High class, and positive rider change. Drawn the carpark.
2. Royal Patronage – Import who trialled nicely before impressive first up win in the G2 Tramway Stakes. Was slow away, and raced back and wide in the 7 Stakes but finished home strongly for 3rd. Rates clearly on top here.
3. Detonator Jack – Usually thereabouts. Ran a solid 4th last start in the 7 Stakes. Maps to be around the mark here.
4. Kovalica – Classy horse on his day and ran a good 3rd first up. Ran 2nd beaten a nose in this race last year. J Mac aboard but will he get too far back stuck on the fence?
7. Ceolwulf – Ran 2nd in the Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby last prep. Won nicely second up and then a very good 2nd in the Kingston Town Stakes last start. On form rates highly. Negative rider change here.
9. Tom Kitten – G1 Spring Champion winner as a 3yo. Gelded and won nicely first up, then a solid 5th last start when back and wide on a day suiting the fence. Can win.
10. Berkshire Shadow – Had no luck first up when held up in a forgive run, then no luck next start in the G3 Cameron when caught 3 wide no cover but stuck on for 3rd. Could surprise at odds.
13. Chrysaor – Ran excellent closing sectionals in first up win at Flemington. Smokey.
14. Molly Bloom – Was disappointing first up. If brought G1 NZ form here could win at a big price.
16. Mchale – Won the Bill Ritchie first up. That profile has won this race the past two years.
18. Kintyre – Sat 3 wide no cover last start but ran well, and drops sharply in weight here.

TOP 4 SELECTIONS

2. Royal Patronage
1. My Oberon
9. Tom Kitten
16. Mchale

BETTING STRATEGY

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Royal Patronage (WIN) for 2 units

Import who trialed nicely before impressive first up win in the G2 Tramway Stakes. Was slow away, and raced back and wide in the 7 Stakes but finished home strongly for 3rd. Rates clearly on top here.

Dean Evans

BACK: 1. My Oberon (WIN) for 2 units

Ran 2nd beaten a nose in the Doncaster on a heavy track 18 months ago. Ran 3rd in the King Charles last prep, and 2nd in the 7 Stakes last start. High class, and positive rider change. Drawn the carpark.

Dean Evans

BACK: 9. Tom Kitten (WIN) for 0.5 units

G1 Spring Champion winner as a 3yo. Gelded and won nicely first up, then a solid 5th last start when back and wide on a day suiting the fence. Can win.

Dean Evans