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FEATURE PREVIEWS: EPSOM HANDICAP

EPSOM HANDICAP

Track: Randwick | Distance: 1600m | Type: G1 Handicap | Rail Position: True | Condition: Good 4 | Prizemoney: $1,500,000

Always a great race over the Randwick mile, won lately by some topliners including Winx, Private Eye, Top Ranked, Kolding, and Probabeel.

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

• 2nd up (1.5), 3rd up (7.5), 4th up (2), 5th up (1)
• 7-day break (2.5), 14-day break (6.5), 21-day break (3)
• 8 winners have drawn barrier 10 or worse, all in fields of 13+. Only two winners have drawn barriers 1-5, and both were in small 10 horse fields.
• 8 geldings and 3 mares (including Winx) have won, although 2 other mares were 2nd beaten a nose. Entires deadheated in 2022.
• Mix of weights from 50.5kg to 57kg
• 4yo (7/53), 5yo (2/49), 6yo (1/30), 7yo+ (1/21)
• Career Starts 7-21 (All)
• Has been a mix of leadup races (George Main & Bill Ritchie most common), but the key constant has been strong performances in the last leadup. Out of form horses struggle.
• Chris Waller has won 4 of the last 10, and run 2nd another 4 times
• SP Rank 1-3 (8), 4-5 (2), 6-7 (1)
• Official Handicap Rating 100+ (10)
• IR Rating Rank 1-5 (10)

SPEED MAP

Above average speed expected here. Going Global should lead comfortably.
Rediener can get the box seat, with Kirwan’s Lane, Communist, Pounding, Barbie’s Fox, Golden Mile, Williamsburg, Nugget, Political Debate and Converge all pushing forward of midfield.
Diamil, Kovalica, My Oberon, Hope In Your Heart, The Inevitable all back of midfield.
Duke De Sessa, Madame Pommery, Olentia, Waterford, Democracy Manifest at the rear.

KEY CHANCES

1. My Oberon – Ran 2nd beaten a nose in the Doncaster last prep. Only beaten 2L by Think It Over last start and drops 3kg here. Would be keen if the track was wet.
3. The Inevitable – Was the run of the race when 2nd beaten a long neck in the Theo Marks second up with 59kg. Is second up here, an 8yo, with a big weight. Tough ask.
4. Going Global – Big weight to carry for a mare, but has a good record overseas and was only beaten 3L by Think It Over last start. Should get a comfortable lead here.
5. Converge – Randwick Guineas winner who has mixed form since but prefers it dry and has placed twice at G1 level in past 5 starts. Solid 4th first up.
6. Golden Mile – Caulfield Guineas winner as a 3yo. Has certainly mixed form since then, but won the Theo Marks last start and ticks a few boxes here.
10. Kovalica – Derby winner as a 3yo, and ran a good 3rd in the Doomben Cup. Disappointing first up but track very firm and step up to 1600m much more suitable here with a positive rider change. Can win
11. Nugget – Was a close 3rd in the Doncaster last prep. Solid 4th first up. In the mix.
12. Pounding – is always around the mark and is another who can figure.
14. Duke De Sessa – Was heavily backed in the Doncaster last prep and only beaten 3.5L. Was ok first up in the Memsie. Randwick mile will suit better. Does he want more rain?
19. Waterford – Was a strong finish last start in the Shannon running +11.7 last 800m the quickest of 108 runners on the day. Light weight and top jockey aboard. Flies at Rosehill. Only query is whether he races well at Randwick.

TOP 5 SELECTIONS

#19 – Waterford
#10 – Kovalica
#14 – Duke De Sessa
#11 – Nugget
#1 – My Oberon

BETTING STRATEGY

Waterford looks very well placed. Only query is two poor Randwick runs, but he profiles perfectly outside of that.
Kovalica can improve sharply on his first up run, as can Duke De Sessa.
Nugget & My Oberon have the class to give this a shake.

BACK: #19 – Waterford 1.0w

BACK: #10 – Kovalica 0.6w

BACK: #14 – Duke De Sessa 0.3w

BACK: #11 – Nugget 0.3w

BACK: #1 – My Oberon 0.3w

DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 429.0

Units Returned: 466.8

Profit On Turnover: 8.8%

G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)

2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63

2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60

2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26

2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23

2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50

2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95

2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50

2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55

2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80

2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69

2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18

2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00

2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32

2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24

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