Best Bets

Rory Flanagan
BACK: 9. Big Evs (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.75)
Big Evs as a 3yo met Asfoora at level weights in the King’s Stand and did most of the hard yakka to drag the field along despite being drawn the wrong side. He was still there at the finish having been something of a yardstick for Asfoora to run down at the uphill final furlong.
Big Evs now gets 2kg advantage and a downhill track to boost his chances after making all here last season which makes him a hugely backable prospect.
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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD TIPS AND PREVIEW
TRACK: Good To Firm
Cutaway was removed yesterday so now it’s almost impossible to try and slip up the fence in the straight as a few jockeys found out. Low draws on backmarkers and high draws on pace horses are brutal.
2. Al Aasy
1. Aimeric
3. Lion’s Pride
4. Phantom Flight
Betting Strategy
BACK: 2. Al Aasy (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.00)
I feel like Al Aasy should be a lot shorter and he came back this prep with a solid 2nd at Newbury. Back up to 2400m where he’s done most of his best work and he can bounce back with a win.
Phantom Flight beat him first up but this is a different race with different track dimensions and an extra 400m.
10. Align The Stars
14. Dancing In Paris
2. Fairbanks
7. Ayyab
Betting Strategy
BACK: 10. Align The Stars (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $3.00)
Could be a big half an hour for the family with full brother Al Aasy running in the previous race. Keen on both brothers. Pulled from the G3 the other day and saved for this where he is likely to start a heavy favourite if he runs. He does prefer some cut in the ground which he may get and they likely won’t run him if he doesn’t so I’m backing him early in the expectation that he’s either going to be scratched or shorten drastically with some juice. There’s a 5.5kg advantage over Fairbanks and over 2800m that could prove substantial as he’s a grinding type who relishes a battle.
BACK: 14. Dancing In Paris (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.00)
Dancing In Paris looked strong at 2800m at Ascot winning well from Tactician. He then stepped up to 3300m and just peaked at the 300 before getting a late second wind in the final 100. Back down in trip at a track he’s run well at before will suit and brings a formline that was well supported in the stayers’ race yesterday.
BACK: 7. Ayyab (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)
Scorched home here two back and has been finding the line consistently (rarely ever beaten more than half a length). Held up in traffic at Pontefract at Listed level which cost him key momentum and the main players pinched lengths on him when he was about to motor. If he can build the revs here, he’ll be powering late on over the top. Marquand booked is a key jockey upgrade.
4. Free Wind
1. Caius Chorister
12. Oxford Comma
8. Sumo Sam
Betting Strategy
BACK: 4. Free Wind (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $2.50)
Free Wind was 8L behind the leader with 200m to go in this last year but was moving so well that she traded long odds-on. The mud got her that day and she just stopped like she’d run into a brick wall. We won’t see ground like that this year bar divine intervention and I’m forgiving her with full trust she bounces back. Bluestocking put 6L on her first-up but that was 2000m and this is a different ball game at 2800m (Bluestocking has spruced that form with a 2nd in the King George at Ascot)
Very confident she wins here and there’s a price to attack.
BACK: 8. Sumo Sam (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)
Sumo Sam ran away with the lead in this last year and I’m trading in plan with the expectation the tactics are repeated. $26 is a nice enough price to set stall on, then lay off at much shorter prices in single digits when she trades shorter if Marquand attempts to break the sound barrier at halfway.
LAY: 8. Sumo Sam (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00)
Set KEEP IN PLAY and lay Sumo Sam. Liabilities of 2u at $4, $2, $1.50, $1.20. 8u liability total.
6. Seven Questions
23. Dream Composer
2. Dark Trooper
3. Fivethousandtoone
Betting Strategy
Not betting unless rain arrives substantially to downgrade track for Seven Questions who is a mudlark and bender missed the top three from 6 wet track runs 211331 and steps down from the G1 King’s Stand.
8. Qirat
6. Mission To Moon
2. Ballymount Boy
10. Arctic Thunder
Betting Strategy
Waiting on weather and race is wide open.
1. Angelo Buonarotti
6. Consolidation
10. Sir Peter Fossick
11. Spell master
Betting Strategy
BACK: 1. Angelo Buonarotti (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.00)
Angelo Buonarotti was a physical standout at Royal Ascot and was in the Coventry a long way especially considering it was his debut and he copped pretty hefty interference. He’s been touted as one of the star 2yos for connections and this is a substantial drop off from a 22-horse G2 for the son of Justify.
9. Native Warrior
11. Magic Memories
7. Dutch Decoy
4. Rowayeh
Betting Strategy
BACK: 9. Native Warrior (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.40)
Native Warrior ran a cracker in the Britannia when 3rd of 29 but 1st of the 10 on the stand’s side. He’s got bags of upside and hasn’t yet hit his true mark. If Doyle is able to extricate away from the rail and avoid a repeat of last night’s stinker on Wafei then Native Warrior selects himself. The rain is no issue and if it doesn’t come, he handled Ascot fine on good to firm.