FEATURE PREVIEWS: DONCASTER MILE

Group 1 | Handicap, Minimum Weight 49kg, 3YO+ | $4,000,000 | Rail: True | Track Conditions: Good 4

After three weeks at Rosehill we are back at Randwick for Day 1 of The Championships. One of the great meetings. Rail in the True and the weather looks absolutely perfect.

The Doncaster Mile, or the Doncaster Handicap, is one of the richest Mile races in the world and one of the best races of the year.

Chris Waller has won 6 of the last 15 Doncaster Miles but hasn’t won since Winx got the job done in 2016. He has 5 runners in this years’ edition including ANISETTE and MOIRA for Yu Long who we have not seen in race conditions here in Australia as yet.

Last year we saw the 3YO Celestial Legend win with 49kg. He became the tenth 3YO to win the race in the last 29 years, famously running the trifecta with Sacred Falls, Pierro and Norzita back in 2013. Will LINEBACKER become the 11^th in the last 30?

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

• 1st up/2nd up (1/27), 3rd up (5/73), 4th up (5/72), 5th up+ (1/55)
• 7-day break (0/26), 14-day break (10/109), 21-day break (2/60), 23+day break (0/32)
• Leader (2), Settled 3rd-6th (3), Settled 13th-20th (6)
• 3yo (3/28), 4yo (3/76), 5yo (2/54), 6yo (3/41), 7yo+ (1/28)
• Colts (3/19), Fillies (0/5), Geldings (5/118), Mares (3/50), Entires (1/35)
• 49kg-54kg (6/172), 55kg-57.5kg (6/55)
• Career Wins 0-4 (2/63), 5-10 (10/164)
• Win Percentage 0-40% (7/199), 50%+ (5/28)
• Gear Change (0/33)
• Last Start Class G1 (9/128), SC (2/19), Other (1/80)
• Last Start Track Rosehill (10/159), Vic Metro (2/39), Other (0/29)
• Is a good form horse’s race. Last 12 winners have all finished 1st-4th at their last start, and 10 out of 12 finished in the first 5 at their 2nd and 3rd last starts.

The key price advantage of the last three years came in 2022, when Mr Brightside won the race for the first time. (He would win again in 2023).

The $23.92 BSP ended up 8.8% better than best tote post commission. It’s remarkable to see a price like that given what Mr B would become.

JUST FOLK on the back up from Tuesday looks likely to cross to the front. ROYAL PATRONAGE can work across and be right up there also. PERICLES has to be positive from the barrier while ANOTHER WIL and IOWNA MERC will be looking to find a position. GRINGOTTS kicks up and has a nice run from barrier 6. If RISE AT DAWN gains a start which might be unlikely, he adds more pressure from an inside barrier.

What a fantastic race as it always is. Let’s start at the top. Hard for top weights to win, and harder from barrier 18 but #1 ANOTHER WIL is a classy horse. Ties in to #3 TOM KITTEN through the All-Star Mile where many thought he should have won. #3 TOM KITTEN did win that and does meet ANOTHER WIL 1kg better and draws barrier 1. Not sure whether we would rather barrier 1 or barrier 18 in a Doncaster, but inside barriers (1-4) have won three of the last four. #3 TOM KITTEN has since run in the George Ryder and he was simply enormous there, charging late when against a massive bias. Last campaign her ran 2^nd in an Epsom behind Ceolwulf and 4^th in a King Charles, charging from well back. Think he’s going even better this campaign and is a key winning chance.

Let’s dissect that George Ryder where 8 of these come through. #7 ROYAL PATRONAGE led and went too slowly, some 7.8 lengths slower than class average to the 600m. He would have performed better if they went faster but he did seemingly have his chance, fence in run. The winner, #2 GRINGOTTS also found the fence and had a saloon passage. Others meet him better at the weights, and while he’s a chance here from a perfect barrier, he looks short enough. #8 STEFI MAGNETICA was off fence and stuck on. Think #3 TOM KITTEN was a better run and tipping he is the one to take out of that race.

As mentioned above, the 3YO’s have a fantastic record in this race and #20 LINEBACKER can’t be ignored with 49kg. He won the Randwick Guineas in very smart fashion, beating Broadsiding and Swiftfalcon who came out and franked the form in the Rosehill Guineas. Query is how intertwined that form is and how it does stack up against older horses. #22 SWIFTFALCON a player too if he gains a start.

#19 FIRESTORM savaged the line in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic, running the fastest final 1000m of the day there, and clearly race fastest late sectionals. Drawn well and suited up to a mile now with three weeks and a trial between runs.

Now to the internationals who deserve respect. Always hold Japanese runners in high regard and definitely not ruling out #4 GEOGLYPH, especially with Lane on. Beaten 2.6 lengths two back in the Breeders Cup Mile is scary form. No shock to see this horse win. Speaking of the Breeders Cup, #10 MOIRA won the Fillies and Mares race there. Purton on is a positive jockey booking. Another with claims and a backable price.

#3 TOM KITTEN
#20 LINEBACKER
#10 MOIRA
#4 GEOGLYPH