FEATURE PREVIEWS: COX PLATE

Cox Plate tips and betting strategy are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategies for the Cox Plate at The Valley.

AUTHOR

Dean Evans

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COX PLATE OVERVIEW

Rail: True | Current Track Conditions: Good 4 | Predicted Track Conditions: Good 4

One of the premier G1 races on the Australian and World Racing calendar. In recent years Winx won it 4 years in a row, whilst overseas imports Romantic Warrior, Lys Gracieux, Sir Dragonet, State Of Rest and Adelaide are also recent winners. In fact, take Winx out of the equation and imports have won 5 of the past 6 years.

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COX PLATE BETTER ODDS HISTORY

Last year’s winner Romantic Warrior came with a 12% post commission edge over the corporate average, at the $4 BSP.

A year ealier, Anamoe had netted a 9% price advantage over the corporate average.

Historical Profiling (last 13 years)

1st up (3/13), 2nd up (1/8), 3rd up (2/20), 4th up (4/51), 5th up (3/52), 6th+ up (0/12)
7-day break (0/8), 14-day break (4/71), 21-day break (5/43), 40-125 day break (4/18)
3yo (1/17), 4yo (6/36), 5yo (2/38), 6yo (3/34), 7yo (1/16), 8yo+ (0/15)
Career Starts 4-15 (8/62), 16-20 (2/34), 21-29 (1/34), 30+ (2/26)
59kg (2/86), 47kg to 57kg (11/70)
Geldings (1/65), Entires (5/50), Mares (6/26), Colts (1/14), Fillies (0/1)
Last Start Finishing Position 1 (8/47), 2-4 (5/66), 5+ (0/43)
Second Last Start Finishing Position 1 (7/49), 2-3 (6/50), 4+ (0/57)
Last Start Positions Gained -10 to 0 (0/41), 1 to 13 (12/112)

Speed Map

Pride Of Jenni will lead comfortably.
Royal Patronage and Mr Brightside will do the chasing.
Evaporate and Broadsiding will sit handy with their light weights.
Via Sistina & Kovalica worse than midfield.
Prognosis & Docklands out the back.

Final Field- Key Chances

1. Mr Brightside – Ran 2nd beaten a nose in this race last year. Since then has been beaten 5L and 9L in two strongly run 2000m races containing Pride Of Jenni.

2. Prognosis – High class entire who has run 2nd at G1 level over 2000m in Hong Kong twice to last year’s Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior. Multiple G2 2000m winner and G1 2000m placegetter in Japan. Imports have an excellent record in this race. The one to beat.

5. Docklands – Ran 2nd at G1 level at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne, then 7th in the very strong G1 Juddmonte International. 4th horse won the Prix De L’arc De Triomphe. Can win.

6. Pride Of Jenni – Last prep ran 2nd in the Australian Cup then won the Queen Elizabeth by 7L. Won the G2 Feehan by 1.6L then 2nd in the King Charles last start. Question mark over whether she is going quite as well this prep.

7. Via Sistina – High class mare who has won 3 G1s from 5 starts in Australia. But in the two races containing Pride Of Jenni she has been beaten by 7L both times.

8. Broadsiding – 3-time G1 winner. Won the Golden Rose first up, then a good 4th against the bias in the Caulfield Guineas last start. Capable of figuring.

Top 4 Selections

2.Prognosis
5.Docklands
8.Broadsiding
6.Pride Of Jenni

Summary

Prognosis is a high-quality horse, and imports have a great record in this race. Clearly the one to beat.
Docklands is another import with decent credentials who can surprise.
Respecting Broadsiding with the light weight.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2.Prognosis (WIN) for 3 units

Dean Evans

BACK: 5.Docklands (WIN) for 1 units

Dean Evans

BACK: 8.Broadsiding (WIN) for 1 unit

Dean Evans

SUMMARY

The W.S. Cox Plate is regarded as Australasia’s weight-for-age championship, attracting some of the best horses from Australia, New Zealand and further afield to The Valley each October to compete in the $5 million showpiece. First run in 1922, the 2040m contest is named in honour of the Moonee Valley Racing Club’s founder, William Samuel Cox. The final field, which has a limit of 14 runners, is determined each year by the club’s committee. For the best Cox Plate tips and predictions, head to the Betfair Hub where our team of experts analyse the chances of every runner.

NOTABLE WINNERS

In 2021, Joseph O’Brien’s State Of Rest became the third internationally-trained galloper – after Adelaide (trained by Joseph’s famous father Aidan) in 2014 and Lys Gracieux (Yoshito Yahagi) in 2019 – to win the Cox Plate. State of Rest, who was ridden by John Allen, was only awarded the win after surviving a protest lodged by connections of the runner-up Anamoe.

Prior to Japanese raider Lys Gracieux’s emphatic win as the hot favourite, the Cox Plate had been dominated by Winx. Chris Waller’s mighty mare became the first horse in history to win the Cox Plate on four occasions, as she swept to victory between 2015-2018 to surpass the feats of three-time winner Kingston Town (1980-82). Winx set a new track record on two occasions, first in 2015 before breaking her own record two years later, when she completed the course in 2m 2.94s.

Other notable winners include Rising Fast, who in 1954 became the first – and so far only – horse in history to complete the clean sweep of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. To help you find the winner this year, check out the Cox Plate 2022 tips section on the Betfair Hub where our team of experts study the form of each and every runner.

FAST FACTS

Favourites have an overall win rate of $41 in the Cox Plate.
The win rate increases to 70% for favourites which started at less than even money.
The shortest favourite in the history of the Cox Plate was Phar Lap, who jumped at odds of $1.07 when successfully defending his crown in 1931.
In the modern era, Winx survived a sustained challenge from Humidor to salute at the starting price of $1.10 in 2017, before creating history in 2018 as the $1.20 favourite.
The last favourite to win the Cox Plate was Lys Gracieux, who prevailed at the starting price of $2.50 in 2019.

With our team of tipsters dissecting the formlines from home and overseas, look no further than the Betfair Hub for your Cox Plate best bets. The Valley is a horses for course type of track, with some gallopers struggling to adapt to the tight turns, so the race can be a tricky proposition but you can rely on Betfair to deliver expert Cox Plate betting tips.