UK HORSE RACING TIPS
What is the ratings model?
Welcome to Betfair’s new UK Ratings Model which provides rated prices for every runner at selected thoroughbred meetings across the United Kingdom, offering data driven horse racing predictions.
Using horse racing data, the model is able to calculate its prediction of each runner’s percentage chance of winning that race, before then converting it to what it believes that runner’s most accurate odds should be, a.k.a. that runner’s rated price.
Using these rated prices, Betfair customers can then compare the model’s price to that of the price on offer on the Exchange to see which horses the horse racing predictor model believes is a good tip and which are bad value.
How do I get tips from the ratings?
Ratings are numerical measures that are an expected rating for each horse for the upcoming meeting. Prices are formulated by multiple factors including past performance, upcoming race conditions, trainer and jockey statistics and a range of other variables considered by our Data Scientists.
NB: The Data Scientists’ best-profiled runner is highlighted in grey. The ‘Value’ % is calculated looking at the difference in win probability based on the Analysts rated price v current Exchange market price.
Ie. 20% win rated chance vs 12.5% win chance in the market is a 7.5% difference in winning chance. This is calculated by: (1 / model odds) – (1 / price).
In other words, the horse with the highest percentage value is the model’s best value back tip and the horse with the lowest negative percentage value is model’s best value lay tip (based on the current market prices).
