FEATURE PREVIEW: CAULFIELD CUP
CAULFIELD CUP OVERVIEW
Rail: 3m Predicted | Track Conditions: Soft 6
The richest 2400m turf handicap in the world. Imports have a great record in this race including Dunaden, Admire Rakti, Best Solution & Mer De Glace in the past 13 years. Good local winners have included Incentivise, Verry Elleegant, Without A Fight & Jameka.
CAULFIELD CUP HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 13 YEARS)
- 1st up (4/36), 2nd up (1/9), 3rd up (1/33), 4th up (3/88), 5th up (2/45), 6th up (2/15), 7th+ up (0/5)
- 7 Day break (2/35), 13-14 day break (6/130), 15-22 day break (0/13), 28+ day break (5/49)
- Mix of winning weights from 51.5kg to 58kg
- Even mix of on pacers and backmarkers
- 4-5YO Mare – 3 winners, 4-7YO Entire – 6 winners, 5-7YO Gelding – 3 winners
- 4yo (3/44), 5yo (4/67), 6yo (2/54), 7yo (4/45), 8yo+ (0/21)
- Geldings (4/120), Entires (6/76), Mares (3/35)
- 4 imports have won – 2 from Europe, 2 from Japan. They have all been at odds between $8-$14. They’ve also run 4 2nds and 5 3rds, making up 13 of the 39 1st 3 home.
- Locally trained horses generally need to be 4th up, 5th up or 6th up. European/overseas style trained horses can be 1st up/2nd up.
CAULFIELD CUP SPEED MAP
Above average tempo expected here with Deny Knowledge, Eliyass, Duke De Sessa & Young Werther pushing forward. Sayedaty Sadaty, Positivity, Valiant King, Muramasa, Warp Speed, Zardozi & Coco Sun jostle for handy/midfield positions.. Land Legend, Kalapour, Circle Of Fire & Knights Choice settle worse than midfield. Buckaroo, Warmonger & Huetor out the back.
CAULFIELD CUP KEY RUNNERS
2. Buckaroo – Won the Underwood comfortably then backed it up with a close 2nd in the Turnbull. Racing in career best form. 2400m is a query.
4. Warp Speed – The Japanese came to the Melbourne Spring Carnival in 2019 when Mer De Glace won the Caulfield Cup and Lys Gracieux won the Cox Plate. The likes of Delta Blues, Pop Rock and Admire Rakti have also dominated Australian staying G1 races. Warp Speed has the ratings to measure up here. But is being set for the Melbourne Cup where he will be better suited. Wet track will be a query.
6. Warmonger – Bolted in to win the QLD Derby last prep by 11L. Ran well first up in the Makybe Diva, then disappointed in the Turnbull Stakes. Can bounce back from that and win here.
7. Eliyass – Import who won 4 from 4 in Sydney before a close 3rd in the Turnbull. On pacer and in the mix.
8. Land Legend – Won the Metropolitan for us last start. Inside gate may not be ideal here but he rates highly, is fitter with a champion jockey aboard.
10. Duke De Sessa – Keeps improving each run and comes out of a good Turnbull run when he set a strong tempo up front and stuck on for 4th.
13. Zardozi – Ran 2nd in the Metropolitan last start after racing wide no cover. VRC Oaks winner and going very well.
14. Coco Sun – QLD Derby winner over Warmonger last prep. Has been slowly working her way into form and has been set for this. Can figure.
17. Positivity – NZ Oaks winner who has been racing consistently this prep. Not out if it.
18. Sayedaty Sadaty – Young import having first Australian run. Has some solid European form.
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
8.Land Legend
13.Zardozi
6.Warmonger
4.Warp Speed
SUMMARY
Land Legend was a big win in the Metropolitan and is fitter here. Zardozi was a close 2nd in the Metropolitan and rates highly again here. Warmonger was strong first up and can bounce back from below par second up run here. Warp Speed and Seyadaty Sadaty are imports that must be respected.
Betting Strategy
BACK: 8. Land Legend (WIN) for 1 unit
Land Legend was a big win in the Metropolitan and is fitter here.
BACK: 13. Zardozi (WIN) for 1 unit
Zardozi was a close 2nd in the Metropolitan and rates highly again here.
BACK: 6. Warmonger (WIN) for 1 unit
Warmonger was strong first up and can bounce back from below par second up run here.
BACK: 4. Warp Speed (WIN) for 0.5 units
Warp Speed is an import that must be respected.
BACK: 18. Sayedaty Sadaty (WIN) for 0.5 units
Seyadaty Sadaty is an import that must be respected.
DEAN EVANS’ RESULTS
Units Outlayed: 454.9
Units Returned: 469.4
Profit On Turnover: 3.2%
G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)
2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69
2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18
2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00
2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32
2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24
CAULFIELD CUP
SUMMARY
The Caulfield Cup, one of the four crown jewels of Australian racing, is run at Caulfield each October. It is the climax of the Caulfield Cup Carnival, with three meetings spread across the week starting with Caulfield Guineas Day. First run in 1879, the Caulfield Cup is now worth $5 million in prizemoney and, as such, is the world’s richest mile-and-a-half handicap race. Some of the greats of Australasian racing have won the race, including Let’s Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might and Power (1997), Northerly (2002) and, in more recent years, Verry Elleegant (2020).
Since British trainer Lady Herries saddled Taufan’s Melody to victory in 1998, a further five overseas horses have won the Caulfield Cup: All the Good (2008), Dunaden (2012), Admire Rakti (2014), Best Solution (2018) and Mer De Glace (2019). With several international trainers now targeting the Caulfield Cup, smart punters rely on our form experts to provide their Caulfield Cup tips on the Betfair Hub.
FAST FACTS
- A total of 11 horses in history have achieved the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double in the same year. They are: Poseidon (1906), The Trump (1937), Rivette (1939), Rising Fast (1954), Even Stevens (1962), Galilee (1966), Gurners Lane (1982), Let’s Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might and Power (1997) and Ethereal (2001).
- The Caulfield Cup was awarded Group 1 status in 1979, when Mighty Kingdom won the race.
- Scobie Breasley is the most successful jockey in Caulfield Cup history, winning the race on five occasions. Legendary trainer Bart Cummings won seven Caulfield Cups in his career, between 1966 (Galilee) and Viewed (2009).
- Topweights have an impressive recent record in the Caulfield Cup, with Best Solution – who shouldered 57.5kg in 2018 – joining Admire Rakti (58kg), Viewed (57kg), Northerly (58kg) and Sky Heights (56.5kg) as the horses to carry the top weight to victory in their respective years.
With 18 starters lining up on a notoriously quirky course, the race can be a very tricky betting proposition which is why the smart money is on the Betfair tipsters to deliver their Caulfield Cup predictions. Barriers can also play a big part, with horses drawn wide often struggling to win – the joint most successful barriers in Caulfield Cup history (producing eight winners apiece) are gates seven and nine. With the insight provided by Betfair’s form analysts on our Caulfield Cup tips page, you can bet with more confidence.
