BREEDERS CUP CARNIVAL
Track Conditions: Fast
Expected advantage: On speed
The Breeders’ Cup weekend concludes with a blockbuster 12 race card with a paltry nine group ones on offer for punters and enthusiasts alike. Santa Anita is one of the fairer courses in the US and I don’t expect it to play 85% leaderish like most American tracks. If they go hard, the back markers win and if they go slow, the leaders win. The culmination of American, Japanese, English, Irish, French, Canadian and Argentine form should make great viewing.
1. TIME FOR TROUBLE
6. KISS TODAY GOODBYE
BACK: #3 Siskany (WIN) for 5 units
Siskany is the best horse in the race and should account for this lot with minimal fuss. If not for vet rules, he’d be in Melbourne contesting the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.
12. SILVER KNOTT
7. SEAL TEAM
BACK: #3 Reincarnate (WIN) for 1 unit
Reincarnate didn’t handle the mud at Parx last time, but is poised to bounce back on the firmer footing from a good gate and should have much more luck in running than the favourite. Looks the value.
Silver Knott seems to save his best for America, having been sub-par back in the UK as a 3YO. Charlie Appleby knows how to pick the right horses and he will likely come storming down the outside late, but it is a question of whether or not his main dangers are off and gone.
BACK: #6 Webslinger (WIN) for 2 units
Webslinger is extremely consistent and only just missed by a head in the Saratoga Derby in August, but has been freshened and set for this and looks a winnable assignment.
3. CODY’S WISH
1. STAGE RAIDER
Cody’s Wish is a winning machine and should add another G1 to his collection. There’s no real price to take, but there is also no reason to oppose him.
Zozos is a consistent horse, but is not yet in G1 quality.
2. WARM HEART
1. IN ITALIAN
BACK: #2 Warm Heart (WIN) for 3.5 units
Warm Heart is proven at this distance on this kind of going and draws well to get a soft run all the way around. She has won two G1’s at her last two starts and Ryan Moore will likely make use of her ability to run 2400m and attempt to stretch the stamina of the fillies who are stepping up beyond a mile to 2000m for the first time.
Inspiral is a multiple G1 winner and tackles this new trip for the first time. She got all the favours at Newmarket last start, but still won well. Frankie Dettori will likely ride her out the back and try and finish over the top of them. For this reason, I am siding with Warm Heart who shouldn’t need luck in running.
In Italian is a consistent type and was a gallant 2nd in this race last year. Drawn the rail and likely attempt to make all.
1. GOODNIGHT OLIVE
2. CLEARLY UNHINGED
BACK: #3 EDA (WIN) for 0.5 units
Not over keen to bet into this race, and the rail might be a dangerous place to be by this time of the meeting. Happy to sit this one out, but will mention EDA who looks massive overs in the first time blinkers.
14. MASTER OF THE SEAS
2. GINA ROMANTICA
BACK: #6 Mawj (WIN) for 4.5 units
Mawj will have to do a bit of work to find the lead, but she is capable of producing at both ends. She easily made all at Keeneland 3 weeks ago over 1800m, and now drops back to a mile which should suit better. She’s at her best when she is in control of the race, and barrier 6 is good enough to aid her in finding the front.
Songline and Master of the Seas will be rattling home late, but hopefully Mawj is off and gone by then.
Money will come for Gina Romantica if In Italian wins Race 4.
5. ADARE MANOR
3. PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS
BACK: #5 Adare Manor (WIN) for 2.5 units
Looks a match race between Idiomatic and Adare Manor. I am leaning to Adare Manor, as she has won four starts here in her last five runs. Her price is much more appealing and she will stalk the favourite. Both are drawn ideally.
5. AUGUSTE RODIN
11. KING OF STEEL
4. BOLSHOI BALLET
BACK: #5 Auguste Rodin (WIN) for 3 units
Auguste Rodin has lost his pacemaker with vets scratching Bolshoi Ballet yesterday. Broome will have to take up the running, or they will have to position the Derby winning colt much closer than usual to make best use of him.
King of Steel comes through the aforementioned Champion Stakes, where he came from last to finally break his G1 duck. The question will be how much has that run taken out of him on a back up that is considered short by European standards.
BACK: #9 Mostahdaf (WIN) for 4 units
Mostahdaf brings Equinox form which is the best on the planet and was further franked on Sunday. Barrier 7 isn’t the worst, and by Race 8 they may be swooping down the middle. He thrashed Paddington who was one of Europe’s best 3YO colts and was saved for this by missing the Champion Stakes on a heavy track.
5. DERMA SOTOGAKE
3. WHITE ABARRIO
8. USHBA TESORO
12. ARABIAN KNIGHT
BACK: #5 Derma Sotogake (WIN) for 1 unit
Derma Sotogake won the UAE Derby in good style from the front and was a respectable 6th in the Kentucky Derby. Didn’t unfold according to plan that day and has been given a lengthy break and set for this. Should roll forward from Gate 4 and will put the pace on.
Arabian Knight looks unders and will have a wide trip, which would be no issue against lesser horses but this is harder.
BACK: #3 White Abarrio (WIN) for 1.5 units
White Abarrio won here last start in the Whitney Stakes. Three month spell should be no issue as has previously won off similar spells and draws to get a soft run from Gate 2.
BACK: #8 Ushba Tesoro (WIN) for 1.5 units
Ushba Tesoro won the Dubai World Cup, storming home from the rear. He will need his comrade to force a similar pace to be best suited here, but can’t knock the picket fence and has to be a bet.
16. TWILIGHT GLEAMING
BACK: #3 Caravel (WIN) for 1.5 units
Caravel is a surprising price and has won 15 races, so she knows where the post is. Not sure what happened last two starts, but looked airborne before that. Drawn for an easy run behind the speed and looks a value option.
BACK: #12 Arzak (WIN) for 1 unit
Arzak picked off two weaker races including rolling the favourite for this, so his price is somewhat surprising and as a result, I couldn’t have the favourite here.
BACK: #10 Motorious (WIN) for 1 unit
Motorious has shown some good form of late but is probably better suited to 1200m although if they go quite hard here he looks best suited coming from off the pace.
8. ELITE POWER
2. DR. SCHIVEL
7. SPEED BOAT BEACH
BACK: #8 Elite Power (WIN) for 4.5 units
Elite Power’s win in Saudi Arabia was astonishing and a repeat of that performance wins this with ease. Missed the boat last time but his previous win here over this trip in July was slick. The horse that beat him, Gunite, was drawn barrier 2 and had a cushy run that day, but has now drawn gate 9 which should hand the advantage to the favourite.
BACK: #2 Dr Shivel (WIN) for 1.5 units
Dr. Schivel has had four runs at Santa Anita over this trip and won all four of them, especially from low draws. He thrashed Speed Boat Beach and I can’t see why that horse is shorter in the market than the Dr.