fbpx
Skip to content

EXPERT RACING TIPS: BREEDERS CUP

DEL MAR PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SUNDAY NOVEMBER 3RD 2024

  TRACK: Firm/Fast

Leaders on dirt are massively advantaged as the Del Mar kickback is harsh. Sweeping down the outside on the turf course later on in the card is also not the worst.

RACE 4 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

3. Pleasant
9. Ways And Means
6. Society
10. Scylla

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Pleasant (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

Nice draw here for Pleasant who can put herself in a good position compared to those drawn wide hard up in the market. If she’s right up there on speed at the turn she’ll play a part at a very generous price. Clean jump is essential.

BACK: 3. Pleasant (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

Nice draw here for Pleasant who can put herself in a good position compared to those drawn wide hard up in the market. If she’s right up there on speed at the turn she’ll play a part at a very generous price. Clean jump is essential.

RACE 5 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

11. Big Evs
1. Believing
6. Star Of Mystery
12. Bradsell

Betting Strategy

BACK: 11. Big Evs (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)

Big Evs has shown he loves a bend and won at last year’s Breeders’ Cup meeting. He’s definitely got the visitors’ draw in 11 here but has plenty of early toe if Marquand can boot up and cross. He’s a smiliar level to Bradsell (drawn 12 and more than half the price) and that horse got the faster lane at York whereas Big Evs had to run via the quicksand.

BACK: 1. Believing (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.00)

If there is a race where Believing might finally break through, it’s probably this. Coming home in fastest splits of so many of her races when they’re all over already, she might finally get an F1 tempo to aim at and storm down the middle of the track or miraculously up the rail. There are plenty of leaders involved here and they’re all mainly drawn wide so this may just set up for a swooper.

BACK: 6. Star Of Mystery (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

Star Of Mystery’s best runs are all on rock solid firm ground in either Dubai or America and the harder they go the better. I’m hopeful that Cogburn gets snagged and has nowhere to go and Buick can produce a better ride than last time.

RACE 6 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

2. Thorpedo Anna
6. Raging Sea
9. Awesome Result
1. Candied

Betting Strategy

Japanese picket fence vs superstar American. No good prices here, sit out.

RACE 7 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

11. Rebel’s Romance
5. Jayarebe
3. Shahryar
6. Far Bridge

Betting Strategy

BACK: 11. Rebel’s Romance (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $2.70)

Rebel’s Romance is a previous Breeders Cup Turf winner, and is one of the world’s best horses. There should be tempo here and Far Bridge won’t be allowed to get away with murder. Really he should be undefeated this year and he wiped the floor with everyone in Dubai when drawn also in 11. He then scalped an easy G1 in Hong Kong before getting driven mad by Coolmore at Ascot sending out two pacemakers to disrupt him. He stuck on superbly and the two horses in front look good – Bluestocking won the Arc and Goliath won again last time out.
his turf form reads: 111117U411131. He is a strong bet at this price and I expect it to evaporate.

RACE 8 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

1. Forever Young
7. Ushba Tesoro
2. Highland Falls
9. Fierceness

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Ushba Tesoro (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)

He just savages the line every start no matter the tempo. I’m hopeful they go ham in front with City Of Troy desperate to lead and not face kickback but Ushba loves it. He can sit behind them all and storm over the top on his day, he just can’t afford to be too far back on a track like Del Mar but gate 7 will help.

BACK: 1. Forever Young (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $4.00)

Forever Young is a freak in my opinion. He’s unbeaten except for a three way photo when clobbered in the final 100m in the Kentucky Derby after having to do so much work in the run. The key here is the jump – if he can get out and settle behind the leader or prominently then he should look the winner at some stage. His Dubai and Saudi wins were outstanding, and that form has proved good enough to translate here with Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro going well last year.

RACE 9 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

3. Cinderella’s Dream
7. Content
4. War Like Goddess
12. Soprano

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Cinderella’s Dream (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $1.80)

In my opinion she’s still the best 3yo filly in training by some space. She came 7th in the 1000 Guineas but finished best of those who ran in the slow lane on her side of the track. She’s since gone to America and bolted in twice before the weather curtailed her most recent run and was instead kept fresh for this. She famously won by half the track despite the jockey losing the irons at Meydan, and turning tracks seem to be her caper. I expect her to obliterate this mediocre bunch with clear running.

RACE 10 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

9. Remake
5. Don Frankie
1. Raging Torrent
3. Federal Judge

Betting Strategy

Too much pace but also too small a track. No bet.

RACE 11 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

6. Notable Speech
7. Porta Fortuna
9. Johannes
12. Carl Spackler

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. Notable Speech (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.50)

Notable Speech showed his class at Goodwood when bursting clear with a punishing turn of foot. That was much more his caper than Ascot and Longchamp, and he’s going to get a chance to do that here on his preferred firm footing. There have been some insane fluctuations all week as rumours of him failing the vet swirled but he is the best horse in this field and should get his chance to show it. Porta Fortuna should be the only danger and she is versatile and tough as nails. She’ll likely win if Notable Speech doesn’t.

RACE 12 | TOP 4 SELECTIONS

10. Muth
3. Full Serrano
1. Saudi Crown
9. Domestic Product

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. Muth (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $4.50)

This reeks of a Bob Baffert special where Muth will just pounce on some leaders overdoing it. Four wins from last 6 runs and always seems to show up for the big races. Enjoys Del Mar too and will be sitting out from the kickback.

BACK: 3. Full Serrano (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)

The Argentine has run superbly here in both runs, runner up in G1 company last time and very game despite plenty of knocks coming on the strength of his Argentine form. He’s drawn better than most here and if able to find the lead they’ll have a tough time catching him.

Watchlist
Go To Betfair App