FEATURE PREVIEWS: AUSTRALIAN DERBY

The Australian Derby in-depth preview from The Trial Files including Australian Derby tips, speed map and historical data. Won in recent years by Quick Thinker, Jon Snow, Tavago, Mongolian Khan, Criterion, It’s A Dundeel and Ethiopia.

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AUSTRALIAN DERBY

Group 1 | SW, 3YO | $2,000,000 | Rail: True | Track Conditions: Good 4

After three weeks at Rosehill we are back at Randwick for Day 1 of The Championships. One of the great meetings. Rail in the True and the weather looks absolutely perfect.

The New Zealanders have had strong claims on this race in the past, winning 6 of the last 16. They have a couple of live hopes entered again.

Fillies have only won this race 4 times in the last 70 years. Doesn’t fill those keen on the market fancy AELIANA with a lot of confidence.

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

2^nd up (1/1), 3^rd up (0/8), 4^th up (3/52), 5^th up (6/53), 6^th up+ (2/60)
7-day break (5/55), 14-day break (3/74), 16-day break (1/4), 28-29-day break (3/9)
Settled 1st-3rd (4), Settled 5^th-9^th (5), Settled 12^th-15^th (3)
Colts (8/70), Geldings (4/101), Fillies (0/3)
Barrier 1-9 (10/108), Barrier 10-18 (2/66)
Betfair Exchange SP Rank 1-4 (7/48), 5-8 (4/48), 9+ (1/78)
Jockey same as last start Yes (8/76), No (3/80)
Gear Changes (0/34)
Last Start Finishing Position 1 (7/33), 2 (3/30), 3-6 (2/71), 7+ (0/40)
Same Jockey Last Start No (3/91), Yes (9/83)
Starts at today’s distance 0 (8/136), 1 (4/38)

Starts at Randwick 0 (9/107), 1+ (3/67)

PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY

Riff Rocket delivered the goods as favourite in 2024 with a price on parity with best tote.

Major Beel definitely wasn’t favourite in 2023 though, with a huge result for betfair punters.

A $53.63 BSP and a post commission price advantage of 37.5% on best tote was remarkable.

It equates to $136 extra in the pocket for a $10 outlay.

Hitotsu’s victory at $3.60 in 2022 was 1.3% better than corporate average.

SPEED MAP

Doesn’t look to be a lot of tempo on paper and expecting an evenly run race. #1 WILLYDOIT was a dominant winner of the NZ Derby after sitting on speed and we may see him press forward again from gate 10. #4 SHANWAH likely to race on speed with #5 PLYMOUTH and #14 TSISTIPAS. #18 AELIANA looks to get a perfect run from barrier 2 and #8 KING OF THUNDER should settle closer from the inside draw.

AUSTRALIAN DERBY | RACE PREVIEW

The win of #1 WILLYDOIT in the New Zealand Derby was enormous. He was wide early and working out 3 wide before eventually ending up outside the leader, hitting the front before turning and having every right to fold up. Instead, he found another gear and put a space on his rivals to win by 2.3L in a dominant display. He has the 2400m run under his belt, M. Dee sticks and he has options from gate 10. Must be a leading contender. #3 THEDOCTOROFLOVE was a good winner of the Avondale Guineas prior to running 2^nd in the NZ Derby. Would have to improve to turn the tables on the winner but must be included in exotics.

The key piece of lead up form for this is generally the Rosehill Guineas, with #2 GOLDRUSH GURU, #5 PLYMOUTH and #18 AELIANA those coming through that race that appear chances here. AELIANA probably should have won there. Copped interference at around the 150m and once she balanced up, she really savaged the line to only go down narrowly to Broadsiding. We liked her chances there and noted we might see her best as she got out over 2000m and beyond, and the way she raced there suggested the step to 2400m will only benefit her further. Worth noting that she was fence in run on that occasion which was worth lengths. Draws to get a sweet run from gate 2 and the booking of D. Lane is a big tick. Looks a major player. GOLDRUSH GURU led in the Rosehill Guineas and went too keenly, dropping out to finish midfield. He was flying prior to that effort and ridden more conservatively he can bounce back. He was a dominant VRC Derby in the Spring when out to this trip. #5 PLYMOUTH finished right on the heels of the placegetters and will get every chance from 3 for M. Zahra. Blinkers off is an interesting move given he has performed so well since they went on.

#4 SHANWAH brings different form lines into this through the Autumn Classic and Alistair Clark in Melbourne. He would need to improve to win this, but he is in the right camp, fit and looks as through 2400m will suit. Should get a good run on speed.

We really liked the run of #8 KING OF THUNDER in the Tulloch on Tuesday. He can settle much closer from the inside gate and if he backs up on the 5-day turnaround, he will run a big race. He did SP $6 in the VRC Derby, and he looks to be peaking for this. Very interesting race this year.