FEATURE PREVIEWS: AUSTRALIAN DERBY
AUSTRALIAN DERBY
Group 1 | SW, 3YO | $2,000,000 | Rail: True | Track Conditions: Good 4
After three weeks at Rosehill we are back at Randwick for Day 1 of The Championships. One of the great meetings. Rail in the True and the weather looks absolutely perfect.
The New Zealanders have had strong claims on this race in the past, winning 6 of the last 16. They have a couple of live hopes entered again.
Fillies have only won this race 4 times in the last 70 years. Doesn’t fill those keen on the market fancy AELIANA with a lot of confidence.
Historical Profiling (last 12 years)
- 2nd up (1/1), 3rd up (0/8), 4th up (3/52), 5th up (6/53), 6th up+ (2/60)
- 7-day break (5/55), 14-day break (3/74), 16-day break (1/4), 28-29-day break (3/9)
- Settled 1st-3rd (4), Settled 5th-9th (5), Settled 12th-15th (3)
- Colts (8/70), Geldings (4/101), Fillies (0/3)
- Barrier 1-9 (10/108), Barrier 10-18 (2/66)
- Betfair Exchange SP Rank 1-4 (7/48), 5-8 (4/48), 9+ (1/78)
- Jockey same as last start Yes (8/76), No (3/80)
- Gear Changes (0/34)
- Last Start Finishing Position 1 (7/33), 2 (3/30), 3-6 (2/71), 7+ (0/40)
- Same Jockey Last Start No (3/91), Yes (9/83)
- Starts at today’s distance 0 (8/136), 1 (4/38)
Starts at Randwick 0 (9/107), 1+ (3/67)
PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY
Riff Rocket delivered the goods as favourite in 2024 with a price on parity with best tote.
Major Beel definitely wasn’t favourite in 2023 though, with a huge result for betfair punters.
A $53.63 BSP and a post commission price advantage of 37.5% on best tote was remarkable.
It equates to $136 extra in the pocket for a $10 outlay.
Hitotsu’s victory at $3.60 in 2022 was 1.3% better than corporate average.
SPEED MAPÂ
Doesn’t look to be a lot of tempo on paper and expecting an evenly run race. #1 WILLYDOIT was a dominant winner of the NZ Derby after sitting on speed and we may see him press forward again from gate 10. #4 SHANWAH likely to race on speed with #5 PLYMOUTH and #14 TSISTIPAS. #18 AELIANA looks to get a perfect run from barrier 2 and #8 KING OF THUNDER should settle closer from the inside draw.
AUSTRALIAN DERBY | RACE PREVIEW
The win of #1 WILLYDOIT in the New Zealand Derby was enormous. He was wide early and working out 3 wide before eventually ending up outside the leader, hitting the front before turning and having every right to fold up. Instead, he found another gear and put a space on his rivals to win by 2.3L in a dominant display. He has the 2400m run under his belt, M. Dee sticks and he has options from gate 10. Must be a leading contender. #3 THEDOCTOROFLOVE was a good winner of the Avondale Guineas prior to running 2nd in the NZ Derby. Would have to improve to turn the tables on the winner but must be included in exotics.
The key piece of lead up form for this is generally the Rosehill Guineas, with #2 GOLDRUSH GURU, #5 PLYMOUTH and #18 AELIANA those coming through that race that appear chances here. AELIANA probably should have won there. Copped interference at around the 150m and once she balanced up, she really savaged the line to only go down narrowly to Broadsiding. We liked her chances there and noted we might see her best as she got out over 2000m and beyond, and the way she raced there suggested the step to 2400m will only benefit her further. Worth noting that she was fence in run on that occasion which was worth lengths. Draws to get a sweet run from gate 2 and the booking of D. Lane is a big tick. Looks a major player. GOLDRUSH GURU led in the Rosehill Guineas and went too keenly, dropping out to finish midfield. He was flying prior to that effort and ridden more conservatively he can bounce back. He was a dominant VRC Derby in the Spring when out to this trip. #5 PLYMOUTH finished right on the heels of the placegetters and will get every chance from 3 for M. Zahra. Blinkers off is an interesting move given he has performed so well since they went on.
#4 SHANWAH brings different form lines into this through the Autumn Classic and Alistair Clark in Melbourne. He would need to improve to win this, but he is in the right camp, fit and looks as through 2400m will suit. Should get a good run on speed.
We really liked the run of #8 KING OF THUNDER in the Tulloch on Tuesday. He can settle much closer from the inside gate and if he backs up on the 5-day turnaround, he will run a big race. He did SP $6 in the VRC Derby, and he looks to be peaking for this. Very interesting race this year.
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
#18 AELIANA
#1 WILLYDOIT
#8 KING OF THUNDER
#2 GOLDRUSH GURU
BETTING STRATEGIES
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) #18 Aeliana for 2 units
While we are scared of #1 WILLYDOIT we are happy to back #18 AELIANA (win) 2 Units.
Australian Derby Betting Tips
The Australian Derby is one of the true staying tests for three-year-olds on the Australian racing calendar. Held at Royal Randwick over 2400 metres under set weights conditions, this iconic Group 1 event is a highlight of Day 1 of The Championships and a must-watch for racing fans and punters alike. With a rich history of producing champions and a competitive, often unpredictable field, solid Australian Derby tips are essential for anyone looking to take a smart approach to Derby Day betting.
The race regularly brings together top colts and geldings from around the country and sometimes even internationally, all vying for Group 1 glory and a place in racing history. With key lead-up races like the Rosehill Guineas and the Tulloch Stakes providing strong form references, reading the race correctly requires a blend of data, form study, and race-day insight — and that’s exactly what our expert analysts at Betfair Hub deliver.
Our Australian Derby tips are built around comprehensive form analysis, including sectional times, distance progression, tempo expectations, and track bias. The Derby distance can be a major question mark for many runners, making it crucial to understand not just current form, but also breeding and staying potential. Our team considers it all to provide you with informed predictions on which horses are best suited to run out a strong 2400 metres at Randwick.
When it comes to identifying the best bets, our tips go beyond just the favourites. We focus on value, looking for horses that are peaking at the right time in their preparation, stepping up in trip with purpose, or showing signs they’ll improve with added distance. Whether you’re betting for a win, place, or looking at market movement, our racing tips give you a clear picture of who to follow — and why.
Randwick’s testing straight and sometimes rain-affected autumn track can turn the Derby into a genuine staying contest, often suiting those with tactical versatility and proven endurance. Our expert team closely monitors weather conditions, track ratings, and late changes such as gear switches or jockey bookings to ensure our tips are current and reliable right up to race time.
If you’re placing your bets today, Betfair Hub’s up-to-date analysis and previews offer exactly what you need to approach the Australian Derby with confidence. Whether you’re looking to support a short-priced favourite or back a roughie with upside, our insights are designed to help you bet smarter, not just harder.
The Australian Derby is a race where champions are made — and where punters can find real value if they’re armed with the right information. Visit this page throughout the lead-up for detailed racing tips, analysis, and betting previews from the experts at Betfair.
