PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: BETTING TIPS

Welcome to Betfair’s home for betting tips and analysis for the PGA Championship 2022 at Southern Hills Country Club, Georgia.

Read our Golf Analyst’s preview and best bets for the PGA Championship 2022, including outright picks and a range of prop bets from First Round Leader to Head-to-Head markets.

You’ll find the PGA Championship 2022 betting tips and analysis right here on the Betfair Hub!

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PGA Championship 2022: Expert Betting Tips

Best Bets

Justin Thomas

There is so much to love about Justin Thomas tackling Southern Hills this week that if he can overcome what seems to be a mental hurdle in Majors, then he is on the precipice of his second PGA Championship.

Thomas just profiles perfectly for Southern Hills, where you need length from the tee, a tremendous approach game, deft touch around the greens and consistent form on the greens. Thomas ranks 14th in Driving Distance while he ranks Top 5 in the key stats of Putting Average, Strokes Gained: Approach, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, Sand Saves, Par 4: 450-500 Yards and Proximity Under 100 Yards. His form at The Players, Valspar and Phoenix suggest Southern Hills will be well to his liking.

BACK — Justin Thomas at $14.0+

Shane Lowry

2019 Open Champion Shane Lowry is well in the mix for his second Major and has already shortened up this week.

He will be well suited by the length of the course and the smallish greens, which will highlight his outstanding short game that sees him rank 2nd in Scrambling and 7th in Sand Saves. Lowry ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach while he ranks Top 3 in Par 4: 450-500 Yards and approaches from north of 200 yards. Top 13 finishes at the last two Players are a good guide that Southern Hills will suit the Irishman’s eye.

BACK — Shane Lowry at $26.0+


Best Lays

Dustin Johnson

Since winning the 2020 November Masters, it has not been a great major return for Dustin Johnson, with two missed cuts and just a single Top 10 in the 2021 Open Championship. His form this season has been well below par including MC-59 in his last two starts. While he was a dominant winner at the Gil Hanse redesign in the 2020 Northern Trust, his form is not strong enough to show up here.

LAY — Dustin Johnson at < $31.0

Daniel Berger

The PGA Championship is typically a test of length and Southern Hills in 2022 will be no exception, particularly with Kiawah not the normal stern test of length. PGA Championship winners nearly exclusively average over 300 yards from the tee. Berger ranks 175th in Driving Distance on Tour averaging just 289.3 yards. He lacks the distance to contend.

LAY — Daniel Berger at < $71.0


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Top 5

Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama is winding up nicely for the PGA Championship and can absolutely contend a year on from his famous Masters win. Matsuyama has a game that will suit Southern Hills nicely ranking 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 3rd in Ball Striking and 2nd in Proximity from 200+ Yards. He has finished Top 35 in 18 of his last 20 majors with five Top 11 finishes.

BACK — Hideki Matsuyama at $4.50+


Top 10

Collin Morikawa

The 2020 PGA Championship winner has built a remarkable major record in his young career with two wins and three further Top 10s in his nine majors to date. Morikawa’s form has dipped this year but he is the best pure ball striker in the field. It is hard to see him not in the mix.

BACK — Collin Morikawa at $2.70+


First Round Leader

Jason Day

Australian Jason Day is typically a fast starter and he goes very well on long courses. Day ranks 12th in the field in strokes gained in the opening round on courses north of 7400 yards. He led the Wells Fargo with a 63 in the first round and four of his last six first rounds on the PGA Tour have been in the 60s.

BACK — Jason Day at $51.0+


Top Continental European

Alex Noren

Swede Alex Noren profiles nicely for the PGA Championship. He ranks 4th in the field in putting on bentgrass. He is a Top 12 scrambler on Tour while he goes very well on long Par 4s. Strong form on key correlation courses makes him a quality player to be with this week.

BACK — Alex Noren at $10.0+


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Top South African

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Christian Bezuidenhout does not contend all that often but he does not play poor tournaments. He has played seven times over the last 12 weeks and has made the cut each time. He has also made the cut in six straight majors. There is a big South African contingent but Bezuidenhout has the game best suited.

BACK — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $4.0+


To Make Cut

Keith Mitchell

Southern Hills is the perfect course for Keith Mitchell, a bomber from the tee who has an excellent long approach game. He has made the cut in two of six majors with one of those in a PGA Championship.

BACK — Keith Mitchell at $1.70+


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PGA Championship 2022: What You Need to Know

Course Analysis

Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma does not hold the reputation of an Augusta, a Torrey Pines or a Pebble Beach, but it has long been regarded as one of the jewels of the south, with seven Majors already on its resume dating back to Tommy Bolt’s 1958 US Open win.

The course has hosted three US Opens, most recently the 2001 US Open won by Retief Goosen, and four PGA Championships, most recently the 2007 PGA Championship won by Tiger Woods.

The course was not originally scheduled to host the 2022 PGA Championship, but was given the honour after Trump National Golf Club was stripped of the honours.

Southern Hills is a parkland track recently re-designed by Gil Hanse. It is a long course that will test distance and features bentgrass greens.

It is an undulating course that will require plenty of thinking. There is water everywhere, featuring on 15 holes. One of the key abilities to succeed here is an ability to handle windy conditions.

From a course design point of view, other Gil Hanse renovations include

  • Winged Foot (2020 US Open)
  • Aronimink Golf Club (2019 BMW PGA Championship)
  • TPC Boston (2018 Dell Technologies / 2020 Northern Trust)
  • Ridgewood Country Club (2018 Northern Trust)
  • Trump National Doral (2016 WGC Cadillac Championship)

Other correlation courses include

  • Pebble Beach (2019 US Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
  • TPC Scottsdale (Phoenix Open)
  • Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
  • Copperhead (Valspar)
  • TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship)
  • St. Andrews (2010 & 2015 Open Championship)

The most important statistics to follow on the course are

  • Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Proximity
  • Greens in Regulation
  • Par 4 Performance
  • Scrambling
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Driving Distance
  • Putting Average

Which golfers fit the Southern Hills Country Club course profile?

Jon Rahm: When looking for an outstanding ball striker who can bomb it from the tee, look no further than Jon Rahm, who leads the Tour in ball striking while he ranks third in Driving Distance.

Sungjae Im: Tremendous iron player who ranks fourth in ball striking on Tour. Sungjae Im averages 301 yards from the tee. A ranking of fourth in Scrambling only adds to his fit for Southern Hills.

Hideki Matsuyama: The 2021 Masters Champion ranks 8th in Ball Striking and 47th in Driving Distance, so has the right profile to thrive here. Ranks 12th in GIR and finding the small greens is going to be critical.

Xander Schauffele: Ranks 12th in Ball Striking and 29th in Driving Distance, one of just four players to go Top 12 and Top 30 in Ball Striking / Driving Distance.


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Tournament Winners’ History

Looking at recent PGA Championships, it is clear that despite Phil Mickelson winning last year at the age of 51, it is a tournament for young players. Of the last 11 winners, eight have been in their 20s.

This is another major, much like The Masters, where the elite of the elite win. Of the last 11 winners of the PGA Championship, eight have ranked inside the Top 25.

No tournament has been more inclined to crown a maiden major winner, with eight of the last 11 PGA Championship winners claiming their first major.

Incoming form has tended to be a strong guide. Since 2006, three players won at their previous start, while seven finished Top 5 and 13 finished Top 20. Only Martin Kaymer in 2010, Justin Thomas in 2017 and Mickelson last year finished outside the Top 20 at their prior start.

Distance from the tee has tended to be critical. No player since 2010 has averaged under 297 yards from the tee for that season. Collin Morikawa was the only player to average under 300 in 2020.

There are 81 players on Tour with an average of 300-plus yards this year, but that does not include the like of Morikawa, Louis Oosthuizen, Tyrell Hatton, Cameron Smith, Webb Simpson, Matt Fitzpatrick, Abraham Ancer or Billy Horschel.

The perfect profile is a big hitter in their 20s who ranks among the Top 25 in the world, who comes into the PGA Championship off a good final hitout.

Which golfers fit the past winners’ history profile?

Scottie Scheffler: The astonishing rise of Scheffler shows no signs of abating with the world No.1 the perfect profile fit for success here given his age, rank, current form and prowess off the tee.

Viktor Hovland: Oklahoma resident who has seen more of Southern Hills than arguably any other player this week. The Norwegian ranks Top 50 in Driving Distance and is No. 6 in the world with a bullet.

Sam Burns: Louisiana native who has made the cut in just three of eight Majors, Burns has won three times in the last 13 months and risen to No. 10 in the world. Sits Top 30 in Driving Distance.


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Five Players in the Spotlight

Rory McIlroy: It is astonishing that it has been eight years since Rory won a Major, but here we are. Southern Hills is a course that suits his big-hitting, ball-striking game, and he comes in playing quality golf, having contended in the Wells Fargo.

Justin Thomas: With each passing major that Justin Thomas does not win, the pressure mounts on a player that should be a multiple Major champion. He has a game that should thrive at Southern Hills and is of course among the favourites.

Brooks Koepka: Four-time Major winner including claiming the PGA Championship twice, Koepka won both in archetypical fashion by blasting the field away off the tee. Form has been mixed this year and it has been a while since his last big win but looks a positive course fit.

Bryson DeChambeau: Huge hitter who has played precious little. The PGA Championship is a tournament that should suit him better than any other and back to a traditional course he should be well in the mix but there are plenty of question marks over him.

Tiger Woods: The greatest of all-time returns to the course he won his 13th Major at, claiming the 2007 PGA Championship by two shots over Woody Austin, with Ernie Els a short further back. He overachieved in his return to tournament golf at The Masters and while a win is unlikely, every eye will be on Tiger.

Aussies to Watch

Eight Australians will compete at Southern Hills Country Club, looking to become the sixth Australian to win the PGA Championship.

2015 winner Jason Day heads the contingent that includes Players’ Championship winner Cameron Smith and former Masters winner Adam Scott, along with Marc Leishman, Cameron Davis, Matt Jones, Lucas Herbert and Min Woo Lee.

Marc Leishman is the only Australian to rank Top 50 in Ball Striking this season, while Leishman, Scott, Davis and Jones are the four Australians to average over 300 yards off the tee.


PGA Championship 2022: Winner Market & Betting Tips


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