The Betfair Insider: VRC Derby Day – Flemington Saturday 31 October

Posted: October 29, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Flemington, Saturday 31 October 2015

 

Track

Good 3

Rail True

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 30th – Max 27. Sunny morning with 20% chance of rain in the evening.

Saturday 31st – Max 27. Cloudy. 60% chance of showers. 1-8mm Rain.

 

R4 Coolmore Stud Stakes G1 1200m

Speed Map:

coolmore stud

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners won G2 Roman Consul in lead up (2014 & 2013)
  • 3 of past 5 winners last start winners at G2 level
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been 2nd up

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Brazen Beau – SP $8 56.5kg BR 15 – 3rd up, Freshened 4 weeks 1st Roman Consul G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Delectation – SP $51 56.5kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th BR Crowley Listed 1200m Randwick

3rd – Kuro – SP $6.50 56.5kg BR 16 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st BR Crowley Listed 1200m Randwick

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Zoustar – SP $2 fav 56.5kg BR 10 – 4th up, Freshened 4 weeks 1st Roman Consul G2 1200m Randwick

2nd – Not Listenin’ To Me – SP $11 56.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd Red Anchor G3 1200m MV

3rd – Lion Of Belfort – SP $15 56.5kg BR 4 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Blue Sapphire Listed 1200m Caulfield 

 

2012 Rail, True Good 4

1st – Nechita – SP $5 54.5kg BR 3 – 3rd up, Freshened 7 weeks 6th Golden Rose G1 1400m Rosehill

2nd – Jolie Bay – SP $7.50 54.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Brian Crowley Listed 1200m Randwick

3rd – Shamexpress – SP $51 56.5kg BR 11 – Freshened 5 weeks 5th Guineas Prelude G3 1400m Caulfield

 

2011 – Sepoy – SP $1.30 fav 56.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Caulfield Sprint G2 1100m Caulfield

2010 – Star Witness – SP $5 fav 55.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Schillaci Stakes G2 1000m Caulfield

 

Major Players:

Exosphere – Won 5 from 7 career starts and looks unstoppable between 1200-1400m. Comes to Flemington for the first time which will suit him down to the ground. Won the G2 Roman Consul last start with consummate ease clocking a huge final splits off a moderate tempo, his last 600 33.28 400 22.16 200 11.44. Hard to see him starting bigger than $1.33 with ‘whale’ punters playing.

Super One – Ex Singaporean colt who won his first 4 starts with authority including a G2 and G3 over 1200m. Drifted heavily first up and needed the run when beaten 0.8 lengths to General Jackson. I’m treating that run as a barrier trial and his trackwork has been very sharp since his 1st up run. Place chance.

Keen Array – Has come back a very smart horse this time in winning 4 from 5 starts this preparation. Toughed it out well last start in the Listed Blue Sapphire 1200m at Caulfield running his final 400 in 22.24 200 11.20 to hold off Mogador. Place chance.

Counterattack – Won 2 of 3 starts this time. His last start win in the Brian Crowley terrific overall time with fast closing sectionals his last 600 33.72 400 22.48 200 11.76. Waller has a strong record in the race and has jumped out nicely since his last win. Profiles strongly but runs into Exosphere again.

Sebring Sun – Underrated Colt. Gets back in his races and has electric turn of foot. His 3rd in the G1 Golden Rose was huge clocking the fastest last 400 in 22.32 200 11.52. Surprised he wasn’t aimed at the Caulfield Guineas on the back of that run being a Sebring colt. He will be very strong late of a freshen up. Flemington a plus.

Mogador – Started $1.50 favourite on Debut against Exosphere. Has been a slow maturing horse but his two starts this preparation have been eye catching. Last start 2nd in the Blue Sapphire sat off the speed and was beaten under half a length with a final 600 in 33.92 400 22.08 200 11.08. Place Chance.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Exosphere – Confident big punters will be all over him. $1.50 early with a SP of $1.33.

BACK – PLACE – Sebring Sun – have marked him clear 2nd favourite. Keen to back anything $3+.

 

R6 Mackinnon Stakes G1 2000m

Speed Map:

Mackinnon Stakes

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners have come through the G1 Cox Plate
  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been Mares

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Happy Trails – SP $7 59kg BR 12 – 6th up, 1 week 6th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – He’s Your Man – SP $6 59kg BR 5 – Freshened 4 weeks 1st Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Farraaj – SP $12 59kg BR 14 – Let up, 10 weeks 4th Strensall Stakes G3 1800m York

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Side Glance – SP $12 59kg BR 6 – 2nd up, 1 week 6th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Dear Demi – SP $11 56.5kg BR 8 – 5th up, 2 weeks 3rd Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Moriarty – SP $17 50kg BR 9 – 5th up, 2 weeks 10th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail, True Good 4

1st – Alcopop – SP $6 59kg BR 5 – 7th up, 2 weeks 2nd Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

2nd – Glass Harmonium – SP $14 59kg BR 2 – 4th up, 1 week 13th Cox Plate G1 2040m MV

3rd – Ocean Park – SP $1.70 fav 58.5kg BR 4 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Cox Plate G1 2040m MV

 

2011 – Glass Harmonium – SP $7 59kg BR 2 – 5th up, 1 week 10th Cox Plate G1 2040m MV

2010 – So You Think – SP $1.60 fav 58kg BR 8 – 5th up, 1 week 1st Cox Plate G1 2040m MV

 

Major Players:

Fawkner – SCR – will run in Zipping Classic next week.

Happy Trails – Holding his form well, beaten by Criterion only in the Caulfield Stakes by 0.5 of a length. In his last start in the Cox Plate given no hope after going back of a wide gate then forced to fan 9-10 deep around the turn where few runners made ground all day. He’s won twice here at 2000m and after drawing barrier 6 he’ll get a soft run in transit. He profiles like the winner. I’ve marked him $7 favourite.

Pornichet – Another runner profiling well for the race. I’ve been heavily against him all preparation but loved his effort in the Cox Plate when ridden cold. At his first ever start in Australia on Derby Day last year he ran a slashing 4th beaten 1.15 lengths to Hucklebuck in a G2 over 1400m. Flemington suits and maps well from barrier 4. I’ve marked him $9 and expect him to box seat.

Gailo Chop – Happy to forgive his Cox Plate performance when 8th beaten 12.55 lengths, he clearly wanted to settle closer and over raced in stages. Expecting Flemington to suit and he excels on a wet track winning his Cox Plate lead up race (G3 in France) by 4 lengths on a heavy track after some impressive performances in a much tougher grade. With 1-8mm forecast it’s unlikely to get to the heavy range but any cut out will enhance his chances. $21 looks over the odds if wet.

Magic Hurricane – Keeps on raising the bar. Nosed out by Preferment under WFA conditions in the G2 Hill Stakes over 2000m two starts ago. Then won The Metropolitan by 2 lengths with 55.5kg with Beaten up and Havana Cooler in the minor placings. Not convinced he has the acceleration to beat the G1 horses here dropping back in trip. He’s 7th up here, trialling back in early May then was 1st up in a BM94 in the first week of June. The profile is against him heavily and at $5.50 in early markets he looks a great Lay.

Magic Artist – G1 placed in Rome 3 starts ago at 2000m. Since then travelled to USA to contest G1 Manhattan Stakes 2012m at Belmont beaten 3.5 lengths with 52.5kg. He positioned midfield 3wide with cover, off the bit 500m from home but toughed it out to the line. Last start in the Bayerisches G1 2000m in Munich was 3w to the first bend but found cover shortly after. Carrying 60kg he failed to quicken in the home straight when required but ground away to the line beaten close to 3 lengths. He’s drawn to get a soft run from barrier 2 but from what I’ve seen I couldn’t back him at the current market price of $15. He’s now 1st up for Andreas Wohler, it’s possible he’s improved whilst in his care.

Stratum Star – G1 winner 3rd up in the Sir Rupert Clarke over 1400m. Since then 3rd in the G1 Toorak Handicap and most recently a convincing winner of the G3 David Jones Cup 2000m. Ran 23.02 between the 600m and 200m mark in that event after running 11 lengths above the benchmark to the 600m mark. Despite a wide gate is a knockout but will drift in early markets from $7.50.

Rising Romance – Blinkers on for the first time may sharpen her up, she needs too. Dropping back from the Caulfield cup where seemed to get every favour but race flat. Starting to think she’s now a 1600m horse who likes to be kept on the fresh side. If she was ‘in season’ as reported for her Caulfield Cup failure, maybe she’s ready for the breeding barn. Wouldn’t shock but expecting her to drift from $21.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Happy Trails – I’ve marked him $7 favourite. A small overlay with $10 on The Exchange.

LAY – E/W – Magic Hurricane – He looks at least half his correct price. Lay E/W up to $10.

LAY – PLACE – Flamingo Star – Loved his Toorak run, but keen to lay him up to $5 place this grade.

 

R7 AAMI Victoria Derby G1 2500m

Speed Map:

VRC Derby

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 0 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 7 or closer
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 5th or 6th up with 2 weeks between runs
  • 4 of past 5 winners have finished 1st or 2nd in their lead up run

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Preferment – SP $8.50 55.5kg BR 6 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Geelong Classic Listed 2200m Geelong

2nd – Bondeiger – SP $11 55.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 1 week 7th Moonee Valley Vase G2 2040m M Valley

3rd – Nozomi – SP $41 55.5kg BR 16 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Classic Listed 2200m Geelong

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Polanski – SP $5.50 55.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Norm Robinson G3 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Complacent – SP $7 55.5kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Champion Stakes G1 2000m Randwick

3rd – Thunder Fantasy – SP $31 55.5kg BR 7 – 5th up, 3 weeks 9th Champion Stks G1 2000m Randwick

 

2012 Rail, True Good 4

1st – Fiveandahalfstar – SP $41 55.5kg BR 5 – 7th up, 1 week 1st BM72 1800m Rosehill

2nd – Super Cool – SP $6 55.5kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st MV Vase G2 2040m Moonee Valley

3rd – Rawnaq – SP $101 55.5kg BR 4 – Freshened 4 weeks 12th UCI Listed 1800m Flemington

 

2011 – Sangster – SP $13 55.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd Norm Robinson G3 2000m Caulfield

2010 – Lion Tamer – SP $13 55.5kg BR 14 – 6th up, 1 week 2nd AAMI Vase G2 2040m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players:

Lizard Island – Hit the line strongly to be beaten only 1.75 lengths 2nd to Press Statement in the G1 Caulfield Guineas 1600m. His last start as impressive in the G3 Caulfield Classic 2000m. He was forced to work early, going forward off a wide draw. He was the first to challenge the leader and stuck on to be beaten by a length to the promising filly Sacred Eye. He’s drawn barrier 3 and will box seat. $12-14 in early markets won’t last.

Kia Ora Koutou – Undefeated Perth gelding that has overcome interference in his races to win. That’s generally a characteristic of a pretty smart horse. He can sprint off a slow tempo recording strong closing sectionals in every start to date. His last win in a BM72 over 2200m against older horses holds him in good stead for this, home his last 400 23.68 200 11.92. There’s no stars amongst these 3yo’s on what I’ve seen to date. I’ve conservatively marked him a $6 chance with the only query 4 weeks between runs, despite a good trial since his last start.

Tarzino – Has been building towards this race nicely, with a more positive ride last start he would have won the Vase. The race time in the Vase overall was slow, but his closing splits indicate he’s right on target for this,  his last 400 23.81 200 12.08. Thankfully Mick Price has indicated the horse will go forward. Has drawn barrier 10 which gives him options and I can’t see him being trapped 3 wide. His breeding suggests he’ll relish 2500m and I have no issue with him on the back up. $2.50-2.70 early looks well under the odds. I expect him to reach $4, then shorten. Hard to beat.

Get The Picture – Gets a mile out of his ground in races and keeps grinding away indicating that the rise to 2500m will suit. Last start 4th in the G3 Caulfield Classic was Ok given he didn’t appear to handle the turn at all, running the fastest last 200m split in 11.75. He’ll be best suited to Flemington but without tempo on will need to get rolling earlier in the race. Has Oliver from barrier 5 and rates a $13 chance.

Etymology – Looks a genuine stayer in the making and has had excuses at his last two starts. Most recently beaten 1.2 lengths to Sacred Eye in the G3 Caulfield Classic. He was held up between the 300m to 200m mark entitled to finish much closer. Love that he’s drawn off the fence and expecting James McDonald to find the back of Tarzino to make his move. Can’t wait to see him at Flemington over the extended trip, everything points to 2500m+.

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – Kia Ora Koutou – Small overlay and is the new form.  $8 a fair price.

BACK- WIN – Etymology – I’ve marked him $9 making the $17-21 in early markets good odds.

LAY – WIN – Tarzino – $2.5-2.70 is poison odds. Chase him out to $3.50-4.00 with confidence.

 

R8 Myer Classic G1 1600m

Speed Map:

myer classic

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been 3yo fillies
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through G2 Tristarc Stakes
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 57kgs
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 3rd up or deeper into their preparation

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Bonaria – SP $26 57kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 7th Ladies Day Vase 1600m Caulfield

2nd – Sweet Idea – SP $6.50 57kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Catkins – SP $7.50 57kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

 

2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Red Tracer – SP $3.10 fav 57kg BR 10 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Catkins – SP $8 57kg BR 11 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Tesio Stakes G3 1600m Moonee Valley

3rd – Fire Up Fifi – SP $6.50 57kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

 

2012 Rail, True Good 4

1st – Appearance – SP $41 57kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 7th Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

2nd – Soft Sand – SP $10 57kg BR 12 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Tristarc G2 1400m Caulfield

3rd – Secret Admirer – SP $8 57kg BR 2 – 6th up, 2 weeks 11th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2011 – Hurtle Myrtle – SP $16 57kg BR 13 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 5th Moonga Stakes G3 1400m Caulfield

2010 – Sacred Choice – SP $21 57kg BR 6 – 5th up, Freshened 4 wks 3rd Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

 

Major Players:

Royal Descent – Has been in impeccable form all preparation despite a last start failure in the Caulfield Cup when posted wide early from barrier 22. She was beaten 29.6 lengths in the Cup and if you removed that blemish she’d rate close to a $3 favourite for this. Her work at Flemington on Tuesday looked sharp over 1000m, home her last 400 in 23.09. With blinkers on for the first time she’ll get every chance from barrier 5 mapping best.

Solicit – Huge performance 1st up almost winning the G2 Tristarc against the profile which suggested 2nd up horses were best suited. She worked across from barrier 11 and gave a big kick off the turn running her final 400 in 23.06 200 11.88. Her final 200 was 7th fastest and looking at her replay she was a touch fresh and looked to blow out her last 50m. She profiles well coming through that race and her 2nd up record is strong. Despite not winning beyond 1400m she’s been competitive up to 2000m. Beaten 1.6 lengths in this race last year she’s a mile over the odds at $26.

May’s Dream – Not won since SA Oaks in April 2014. Has been close all 3 starts this preparation, maps and profiles well for this. No concern with 4 weeks between runs as she runs her best races on the fresher side. Her recent sectionals indicate to me she’s most effective between 1200-1400m. Looks likely to drift in early markets.

Abidewithme – G2 winner in NZ over 2000m and flying this preparation. Didn’t have the clearest passage last start in the G1 Toorak 1600m when she had more to give. Still home her last 400 23.64 200 11.92. Flemington a plus as is any rain. If they go too hard in front she’s a big chance. I’ve marked her $9 making her a slight overlay. Small concern buried on the fence so late in the day.

Azkadellia – On the back up from a fast finishing 2nd in the G3 Tesio Stakes, a similar route to 2013 runner up of the Myer in Catkins. One of few horses to make up ground against a significant bias on the day recoding the fastest last 600m of the day. Did SP $3.80 in last year’s G3 Carbine Club Stakes this day last year. Maps well, any rain a plus and more speed on the better. Will shorten from $8.50 in early markets.

Slightly Sweet – Is in the profile sweet spot for the race coming here 4th up with a strong run in the G2 Tristarc 1400m off a 21 day break. She was held up but hit the line strongly home her last 400 22.64 200 11.48. She’s only won at G3 level to date but will handle the rise to 1600m without issue. She needs everything to go right to win but she’s a knockout.

Stay With Me – Winner of the 1000 Guineas last start when given a peach ride from Dwayne Dunn. She ran the fastest last 800 and 400 splits of the race. Runner up Jameka has since won the Dilmah Vase at Moonee Valley against the boys, although the Vase was run to suit her. No 3yo filly has won the Myer Classic but with 49kg under WFA conditions she’ll have supporters. Barrier 15 makes the task difficult and I’m happy to be against her at $4-4.20.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – E/W – Solicit – Keen to play at $26 win and $7.50 the place

BACK – WIN – Azkadellia – Confident she’s best of the closers and will take anything >$6.50.

LAY – E/W – Stay With Me – Rock bottom at $4.-4.40. Would confidently lay her up to $7.

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying!

The Betfair Insider

 

 

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