The Betfair Insider: Manikato Stakes, Friday 23 September

Posted: October 22, 2015

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Moonee Valley, Friday 23 September

 

Track – Good 4

Rail – True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 22nd – Max 18, Cloudy 40% chance of showers. 0-1mm.

Friday 23rd – Max 19, Partly Cloudy 10% chance of showers.

 

R7 Manikato Stakes WFA G1 1200m

Speed Map

Profiling the race we learn the following: 

  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners 2nd or 3rd up
  • 2 of past 5 winners last start winners
  • 1 of past 5 winners a Mare

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

2014 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Lankan Rupee – SP $3.90 fav 58.5kg BR 9 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 2nd Moir Stakes G1 1200m M Valley

2nd – Angelic Light – SP $13 56.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 4 weeks 4th Moir Stakes G1 1200m M Valley

3rd – Famous Seamus – SP $18 58.5kg BR 5 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Premiere Stakes G2 1200m Rand


2013 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Buffering – SP $7.5 58.5kg BR10 – 2nd up,  4 weeks 2nd Moir Stakes G1 1200m MV

2nd – Lucky Nine – SP $11 58.5kg BR 5 – 1st up, 23 weeks 1st International Sprint G1 1200m Singapore

3rd – Sessions – SP $20 58.5kg BR 5 – 5th up 3 weeks 4th Gilgai Stakes G2 1200m Flemington


2012 Rail True, Good 4

1st – Sea Siren – SP $5.5 56.5kg BR 5 – 1st up, 16 weeks 9th Stradbroke Hcp G1 1400m Eagle Farm

2nd – Mental – SP $14 58.5kg BR 9 – 1st up,  16 weeks 1st Daybreak Lover Listed 1600m Eagle Farm

3rd – We’re Gonna Rock – SP $10 58.5kg BR 10 – 3rd up 4 wks 2nd Rupert Clarke G1 1400m M Valley


2011 – Sepoy – SP $1.80 fav 52kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Danehill Stakes G2 1200m Flemington


2010 – Hay List – SP $1.50 fav 58.5kg BR 1 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 1st McEwen G3 1000m Moonee Valley

 

Major Players

Buffering – Last start winner of G1 Moir Stakes 1st up over 1000m 3 weeks ago. Runner up Ball Of Muscle has failed since then but suspect he’d come to the end of his preparation more than anything.  He’s drawn a similar gate and he’ll sit outside Rich Enuff on speed. His Moonee Valley record is impressive 10 starts 5 wins 1 second 1 third. Won 11 and Placed 11 times of 31 starts at 1200m. Ran Lankan Rupee to 0.6 lengths in this race last year, $8-9 in early markets looks close to his right price.

Chautauqua – Unbeaten this preparation winning the G2 McEwen Stakes at Moonee Valley 1st up and G2 Gilgai Stakes at Flemington 2nd up. His splits in the Gilgai suggest he’s close to career best form running home his last 600 32.85 400 21.96 200 11.40. Without doubt he’s more suited to a straight track given his running pattern but his first up win here was enough to suggest only bad luck will beat him here. Should trade $2.50 but will firm late.

Terravista – Trialled well before his 1st up win in the G2 Premiere Stakes at Randwick defeating Rebel Dane by 0.3 lengths. Seemed to peak on his run 50m from home but closing sectionals good, last 600 33.55 400 22.44 200 11.84. Has drawn barrier 1 so expecting James McDonald to hold the fence and box seat. Beaten under half a length in this race last year and don’t think there’s much between him and Chautauqua.

Rebel Dane – Strong win 1st up in the G2 Shorts over 1100m at Randwick. Followed up with a brave 2nd to Terravista in the Premiere stakes when taking ground of the winner late last 600 33.84 400 22.60 200 11.64. Has placed once in four starts at the valley. Needs everything to go right to win but will be hitting the line strongly.

Srikandi – Lightly raced mare that has overcome hoof issues to become a dual G1 winner. Has been set for this since the Brisbane winter carnival and her two trials suggest she’s on track to be competitive here. Barrier 10 is a big concern and she’s likely to drift heavily early markets from $7.00 to a likely SP of $10+.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – WIN – Terravista – I’ve rated him closer to $4. $6 in early markets represents good value. I expect him to trade odds on ‘In Play’ opening up a Back to Lay opportunity.

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.

 

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