The Betfair Insider: Crown Oaks

Posted: November 4, 2015 at 10:23 am

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THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Flemington, Thursday 5 September 2015

 

Track

Soft 5

Rail +2

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 5th – Max 24. Cloudy 90% chance of rain 3-8mm

 

R8 Crown Oaks G1 2500m

Speed Map:

Oaks Speed Map

 

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 3 of past 5 winners have used Wakeful as their lead up run
  • 3 of past 5 winners have won at their last start
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 Rail + 4, Good 3

1st – Set Square – SP $7.50 55.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 4 weeks 1st Ethereal Stakes Listed 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Thunder Lady – SP $10 55.5kg BR 8 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

3rd – Golconda – $21 55.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 1 week 4th Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

 

2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Kirramosa – SP $2.70 fav 55.5kg BR 10 – 5th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

2nd – Zanbagh – SP $7 55.5kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st F&M 0 – 64 Handicap 2000m Ballarat

3rd – Solicit – SP $11 55.5kg BR 4 – 6th up, 1 week 3rd Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

 

2012 Rail + 5, Good 3

1st – Dear Demi – SP $5 55.5kg BR 12 – 7th up, 1 week 4th Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

2nd – Zydeco – SP $2.40 fav 55.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

3rd – Summerbliss – SP $9 55.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 2nd Ethereal Stakes Listed 2000m Caulfield

 

2011 – Mosheen – SP $5 55.5kg BR 2 – 7th up, 4 days 6th Myer Classic G1 1600m Flemington

2010 – Brazilian Pulse – SP $3 fav 55.5kg BR 7 – 6th up, 1 week 1st Wakeful G2 2000m Flemington

 

Major Players:

Pasadena Girl – Only beaten 1.8 lengths to Jameka in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley when pattern was heavily against horses well off the speed. Only Tarzino & Jameka recorded faster last 200m splits in that event. She’s bred to run 2500m, has the right barrier and jockey and although she’s been disappointing this time in I won’t be laying her at early market price of $10-11.

Jameka – Last start winner of the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley over 2040m. Win was flattered by track bias which heavily favoured horses up on the speed, nearest to the fence. The third placed runner Tarzino has since won the VRC Derby so you must respect that form. She’s bred to handle wet conditions so only query I could have is the rise to 2500m. Expecting her to drift from $4.20 in early markets.

Sacred Eye – High class filly with genuine X-factor. Has dropped fast closing sectionals at every career start to date showing the ability to accelerate off a fast or slow tempo. A dominant last start winner of the G3 Caulfield Classic over 2000m. She ran the fastest last 600 of the race in 35.74 her final 400 23.80 200 12.08. That form has held up with the third placed horse Etymology a runner up in the VRC Derby to Tarzino. This filly is bred to handle the rise to 2500m and only needs cover and a patient Ryan Moore ride to win. $3.50 looks rock bottom, expect her to drift then firm late.

Ambience – Runaway winner of the G2 Wakeful Stakes which is generally the best profile for this race. Had a dream run in transit and with cut out of the ground recorded OK closing sectionals, her last 400 24.61 200 12.56. This filly is well suited to Flemington and clearly relishes ‘big tracks’. She only beat the ‘B’ graders last Saturday but has improved dramatically over the past few weeks.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – SACRED EYE – Don’t take $3.50 early. They will bet at least $4.50.

LAY – E/W – HONESTA – Not sure there’s much improvement left in her.

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.

Good Luck Backing & Laying!

The Betfair Insider