The Betfair Insider: Cox Plate Day, Saturday 24 October

Posted: October 23, 2015

540x240_v4

THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Moonee Valley, Saturday 24th October

 

Track – Good 3

Rail – +3m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 23rd – Max 19, Partly Cloudy 10% chance of rain.

Saturday 24th – Max 23. Mostly sunny.

 

R6 Moonee Valley Cup 4yo+ SWP 2500m

Speed Map

Profiling the race we learn the following: 

  • of past 5 winner have been Horses or Geldings
  • of past 5 winners have carried 56kg or more
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • of past 5 winners 4th or 5th up

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Prince Of Penzance SP $10 56kg BR 9 – 5th up, 1 week 2nd Moe Cup 2050m Moe

2nd – Le Roi SP $8 56kg BR 1 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

3rd – Au Revior SP $4.8 56.5 kg BR 6 – 6 week freshen 4th Prix Foy G2 2400m Longchamp FR


2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Precedence – SP $7.50 56kg BR 2 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 2nd Benalla Gold Cup 2046m Benalla

2nd – Shoreham – SP $5 54kg BR 6 – 5th up, 2 weeks 6th Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

3rd – Gotta Take Care – SP $7 55kg BR 4 – 16th up, 3 weeks 3rd Bart Cummings Listed 2520m Flem


2012 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Vatuvei – SP $ 13 54kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 8th Cranbourne Cup Listed 2025m Cranbourne

2nd – Reuben Percival – SP $9.50 56kg BR 8 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 9th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

3rd – Ironstein – SP $5 56.6kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield


2011- Amercain – SP $3.50 fav 58kg BR 3 – Let up, 9 weeks 10th Kergorlay G2 3000m Deauville FR


2010 – Precedence – SP $2.05 fav 56.5kg BR 10 – 5th up, 3 wks 3rd Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

 

Major Players

Big Memory – Was impressive 1st up in G2 PB Lawrence beaten only 1.85 lengths to Mourinho. Suffered a setback with ankle injury and was 57 days between runs into the Cranbourne Cup. He was unwanted in betting but ran OK beaten only 3.35 lengths to Digitalism. In need of the hit out with strong 1000m-400m splits, knocking up in the run home with 3rd slowest last 400m of the race. Won G2 Herbert Power 2400m this time last year and runner up in G3 Lexus 2500m to Signoff (Melbourne Cup 4th). 2400m-2500m is Big Memory’s sweet spot and will get every chance to win from barrier 3 stalking Bohemian Lily. Has won 2 of 4 starts 3rd up.

Prince Of Penzance – Has a strong record at the track and distance as 2014 Moonee Valley Cup winner. Was enormous 1st up in G1 Memsie Stakes but has disappointed a little since that run. His last start 8th in the G2 Herbert Power average although the race was run at a muddling tempo and was further back then he needed to be. He’ll improve back to Moonee Valley but will be buried along the fence in what’s likely to be another strange tempo race. Will trade big odds ‘In Play’.

The United States – Hype runner who failed at his two recent attempts at 2000m. He’s also yet to win beyond 2000m or be tried at this distance. Races best with strong tempo on and it’s unlikely that he gets those conditions here. Was the fastest home for the last 600m of the JRA Cup most recently and meets similar grade here. $4.20 looks short enough stepping up in distance and think he’ll be a better horse next preparation. Prefer to watch.

Bondeiger – Lightly raced stayer who boasts a 2nd placing to Preferment in the Victoria Derby. Is building nicely towards a win and his last start 4th in the Herbert Power profiles well for this. He meets 3rd place getter Bohemian Lily 3kgs better this time in, beaten less than a length. Drawn barrier 2, mapping to get a soft run in transit this is D-Day.

Bohemian Lily – Has always looked a run behind until her last start 3rd in the G2 Herbert Power when run down by Amralah and the fast finishing Excess Knowledge. Both of those runners look to have serious upside and despite meeting Bondieger 3kgs worse of at the weights, she’ll give this a shake off a wide barrier with an in form Kerrin McEvoy aboard. She got a big breather between the 800-400m mark last start so expect similar tactics here but executed a lot earlier in the race.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – E/W – Big Memory – Marked him $9, and keen to back e/w given the ideal map position and likely soft tempo.

LAY – WIN – Prince Of Penzance – Expecting another negative ride and have rated closer to $7.

 

R7 Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase G2 3YO SW 2040m

Speed Map:

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 5 of past 5 winners have been colts or geldings
  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through Caufield Guineas
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 8 or closer
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 5th up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Moonovermanhattan SP $6 57kg BR 11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 7th Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

2nd – Atmosphere SP $4.8 57kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 2nd UCI Stakes Listed 1800m Flemington

3rd – Go Indy Go SP $ 6.5 55kg BR 8 – 4th up, 2 weeks 7th Thousand Guineas G1 Caulfield


2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Savvy Nature – SP $1.80 fav 57kg BR 8 – 5th up 2 weeks 3rd Champions Stakes Group 1 2000m Randwick

2nd – All Rigged Up – SP $201 57kg BR 4- 3rd up 1 week 2nd 2nd 0 – 58 Handicap 1860m Avoca

3rd – Pinstripe Lane – SP $17 57kg BR 6 – 2nd up 2 weeks 4th Super Impose Listed 1800 m Flemington


2012 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Super Cool – SP $9 57kg BR 4 – 4th up, 10 days 2nd 3YO 0-82 80k 1600m Caulfield

2nd – It’s A Dundeel – SP $1.30 fav 57kg BR 5 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Spring Champion G1 2000m Randwick

3rd – Viking Star – SP $14 57kg BR 7 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd BMW Handicap 1600m Caulfield


2011 – Manawanui – SP $ 1.22 fav 57kg BR 4 – 5th up, 2 weeks 2nd Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield


2010 – Rekindled Interest – SP $5 57kg BR 7 – 5th up, 2 weeks 5th Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

 

Major Players

 

Shards – Went back in the Guineas and was checked at the 1200m mark. He didn’t have much impact from that point on beaten 9.1 lengths 13th. Is likely to be in the first two pairs from barrier 3 and if he can find his old form he’s a knockout.

Sovereign Nation – Has impressed at each career start. Strong winner of G2 Stutt Stakes 1600m at The Valley two starts ago sweeping four wide around the bend to win by a length. Held form last start in the Caulfield Guineas running 4th beaten only 2.35 lengths. Had a dream run from barrier 1 and thought he was entitled to hit the line stronger. 2000m+ suits and no reason why he can’t be in the finish if he’s continued to improve.

Tarzino – Profile standout. Was heavily backed at his 3rd career start $17 into $6.50 when winning 3YO Hcp at Caulfield over 1600m making his run from 1000m to win with authority. His last start 7th in the Caulfield Guineas a great trial for this given he suffered interference at various stages of the race. He was quickest home in the Guineas running his last 400 in 22.72 & 200 11.48. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 10, Newitt will have a decision to make, given he pulled in stages of the Guineas he may settle closer to the speed. Either way he has the foundation and stamina to win.

Hierachal – Hampered at the start then tracked Vanbrugh into the race last start 4th beaten 1.6 lengths in the G1 Spring Champion. Just lacked the turn of foot to win but gives the indication that 2500m of the VRC Derby will suit him. Prefer him at Flemington.

Tally – Not suited by the profile here but is a progressive stayer that looks suited the further they step him up in distance. Will get race run to suit but can’t entertain him at the early market price of $8 given how steep the rise in class.

Pasdena Girl – Trapped three wide the entire last start in the 1000 Guineas finishing 4th after being set alight 600m from home. Jameka stalked her and went straight past her at the 300m mark. I Thought she was entitled to knock up but loved her last 100m, she ran her last 200 in 11.88. Despite the profile suggesting fillies have little chance the extra distance will suit and barrier 1 will give her every chance.

Jameka – Went back off a wide gate last start, tracking Pasadena Girl into the race from the 600m mark in the 1000 Guineas beaten only 1.75 lengths to Stay With Me. Not convinced the step up to 2000m will suit as much as Pasadena Girl based on their final (400 23.32 200 11.76) splits given their runs in transit.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – WIN – Tarzino – $4 looks a fair price given how well he profiles.

LAY – WIN – Jameka – Have rated her closer to $9 and have a really query with her running 2000m.

LAY – PLACE – Tally – Have rated him double his early price $7.00-8.00.

 

R8 Schweppes Crystal Mile WFA 1600m

Speed Map:

 

Profiling the race we learn the following

  • of past 5 winners have been 4th up or deeper into preparation
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 6 or closer
  • of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through Epsom.

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Hooked – SP $5 58.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 3 weeks 3rd Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Bull Point – SP $8 58.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks 6th Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield

3rd – Desert Jeuney – SP $26 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield


2013 Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Toydini – SP $3.30 fav 58.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 3 weeks 3rd Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Speediness – SP $5 59kg BR 2 – 4th up, 2 weeks 4th Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield

3rd – Sacred Falls – SP $6 58.5kg BR 3 – 4th up, 8th Epsom Group 1 1600m Randwick


2012 Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Silent Achiever – SP $6 56.5kg BR 2 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Handicap 1400m Te Rapa NZ

2nd – Rangirangdoo – SP $ 3.10 fav 59kg BR 3 – 4th up, 3 weeks 12th Epsom G1 1600m Randwick

3rd – Solzhenitsyn – SP $ 5.5 58kg BR 1 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Toorak Handicap G1 1600m Caulfield


2011 – Testa My Patience – SP $6 53.5kg BR 6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Handicap 1400m Caulfield


2010 – Sound Journey – SP $ 14 56.5kg BR 9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 4th Handicap 1400m Caulfield

 

Major Players

 

Lucky Hussler – Last start winner of G1 Toorak Handicap rubber stamping his 1600m credentials. Had speed to suit in the Toorak and ran home his last 400 22.96 200 11.51 after being held up between 600-400m. A strong tempo here will suit and profiles like the winner. Won the G1 William Reid over 1200m at The Valley in march this year so has no problems handling the circuit. Early Exchange layers offering $2.60. Best early corporate $2.40. Likely to touch $3.00.

Strawberry Boy – Has been superb in all three starts this preparation. 1st up beaten 0.6 lengths to Winx in G2 Theo Marks, 2nd up beaten 0.6 lengths in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes to Stratum Star from barrier 14. Most recently a fading 8th beaten 4.45 lengths in the G1 Toorak after setting a blistering speed 15+ lengths above the benchmark for the first 600m gifting the race to the backmarkers. If they go slow up front he’s a knockout at $21.

Bow Creek – International with genuine ability starting an $8.50 chance when beaten 22 lengths by Arod in the G2 Summer Mile last start in July. Is a two time G2 winner at the mile, his most recent victory in the G2 Boomerang at Leopardstown 1609m defeating Gordon Lord Bryon by 2 lengths. Has drawn to get a soft run in transit and John O’shea has a knack for producing horses first up. He faces some rock hard fit gallopers here and I assume his grand final would be the Emirates Stakes at Flemington. Is well found at $5.50-6.00 in early markets given a few unknowns.

Sons Of John – Simply flying. Great performance 1st up in G2 Theo Marks beaten only 0.2 lengths to Winx when he didn’t have the clearest passage. Solid again 2nd up in G1 Epsom at his first attempt at that level beaten only 2.4 to Winx yet again. That form is as good as any over 1600m and from barrier 2 will get run of the race behind the leaders. Has proven he can sprint off a slow or fast tempo, his win in the Hawkesbury Gold Cup very sharp. Unbeaten 3rd up and profiles well for the race. Expect an avalanche of support for him after galloping well at The Valley on Tuesday.

Turn Me Loose – Dictated terms up front in his 2nd Australian start in the Seymour Cup last Sunday. Presume he needed the run after thriving in condition. Is a G1 winner over 16000m in NZ so will be hard to run down. I expect him to drift from $5 in early markets.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – E/W – Sons Of John – I’ve rated him closer to $7. $17-19 early looks an error.

 

R9 Cox Plate WFA 2040m

Speed Map

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • of past 5 winners 4yo’s ( 3 x Horses & 1 x Mare)
  • of past 5 winners have been 4th or 5th up
  • of past 5 winner have drawn inside barrier 9
  • of past 5 winners have started over 2000m+ in their lead up run
  • 5 of past 5 winners have finished no further back than 3rd in their lead up run

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead up result

 

2014 – Rail +3m, Good 3

1st – Adelaide 4yo Horse – SP $8 56kg BR 13 – 6 week freshen, 3rd Prix Niel G2 2400m Longchamp

2nd – Fawkner – SP $4.4 fav 59kg BR 4 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 1st Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

3rd – Silent Achiever – SP $26 59kg BR 11 – 4th up, 3 weeks 9th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington


2013 – Rail +3, Good 4

1st – Shamus Award 3yo Colt – SP $21 49.5kg BR 3 – 5th up, 2 wks 3rd Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

2nd – Happy Trails – SP $12 59kg BR 2 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

3rd – Fiorente – SP $8 59kg BR 14 – 4th up, 3weeks 4th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington


2012 – Rail +3m, Good 4

1st – Ocean Park 4yo Horse – SP $6 57.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

2nd – All Too Hard – SP $9 49.5kg BR 3 – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield

3rd – Pierro – SP $5.5 49.5kg BR 7 – 4th up – 2 weeks 2nd Caulfield Guineas G1 1600m Caulfield


2011 – Rail True, Good 4 

1st – Pinker Pinker 4yo Mare – SP $26 55.5kg BR 11 – 5th up, 3 weeks 2nd Epsom Hcp G1 1600m Randwick

2nd – Jimmy Choux – SP $6.5 57.5kg BR 9 – 4th up, 3 weeks 1st Spring ClassicG1 2040m Hastings NZ

3rd – Rekindled Interest – SP $10 57.5kg BR 3 – 5th up, 3 weeks 5th Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington


2010 – Rail True, Good 4 

1st – So You Think 4yo Horse – SP $1.50 57.5kg BR 5 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

2nd – Zipping – SP $17 59kg BR 6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks 1st Turnbull Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

3rd – Whobegotyou – SP $15 59 kg BR 10 – 4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

 

Major Players

 

Criterion – Profiles well for the race as last start winner of the G1 Caulfield Stakes home his last 400 22.24 200 11.28. He won the Caulfield Stakes off a 7 week break after a slightly disappointing international campaign, beaten 5.6 lengths in the G1 Juddmonte International to Arabian Queen & Golden Horn (2015 Arc winner). In last year’s Cox Plate he half missed the start, but travelled nicely in the run, he loomed strongly to win but hit a big flat spot between the 400-200m. I’m not convinced he’s a Moonee Valley horse and his tendency to lay in the Melbourne way of going is enough for me to be against him.

Fawkner – Huge run in the 2014 Cox Plate when slipping at the gates. Great win 1st up in the G1 Makybe Diva 1600m, then hit a flat spot 2nd up in the G1 Underwood 1800m when beaten 0.1 lengths to Mourinho.  Had his colours well and truly lowered in the G1 Caulfield Stakes beaten 6.1 lengths to Criterion. His last two performances were not ‘Fawkner like’ and signal to me that he could be past his best. From an awkward draw I’m not sure where he’ll end up in the run and he could only be backed on sentiment which is a quick way of going broke.

Hartnell – Has been kept fresh for this and only had 2 lead up runs coming into the race. His first up performance was good beaten only 2.9 lengths in the G2 Chelmsford 1600m to Royal Descent. A month later beaten only 1.35 lengths in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at 2000m, where he clocked 3 of the fastest 200m splits of the race. He was ridden well back off his wide draw (against his normal pattern) that start and with barrier 3 here he’ll sit a few pairs back on the fence tracking Highland Reel into the race. He’s the forgotten horse of the race and looks a big overlay at $21 in early markets.

Happy Trails – Loomed up to win the Caulfield Stakes last start to be run down in the last 100m by Criterion. That form is good enough to make him a knockout chance here but from barrier 13 Mark Zahra will be forced to get back and ride for luck.

The Cleaner – Leader. Confident the horse is better this time in but race shape looks against him with international presence. Expecting Callow to slow the tempo between the 1400m-1000m mark then try and run them into the ground. Not sure it’s warranted but he’ll be the hunted which narrows his chances down dramatically.

Arod – Commands respect after his last start 2nd to Solow in the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. That’s arguably the best mile form in the world.  He’s yet to win at 2000m, his best performance over this distance 2nd to The Grey Gatsby in May of 2014 in the G2 Dante Stakes at York (2112m) beaten only 0.8 lengths. Since then he failed in the G1 Juddmonte over 2092m in August of 2014. He’s yet to be tested beyond 1800m in 2015 which is a big concern. Another on pace runner who’s likely to be found wanting late.

Gailo Chop – Front runner. Beaten only 1.5 lengths to Solow over 1838m in the G1 Prix D’Ispahan at Longchamp three starts back on a good surface. Followed up beaten 5.5 lengths in the G1 Prince Of Wales to Free Eagle which is OK for this (Criterion beaten 3.75 lengths). He’s a genuine wet tracker and won his final lead up to the Cox Plate by 4 lengths on a heavy track in a G3 at Maison in France. He won’t get a soft-heavy track and now finds himself toe-to-toe with The Cleaner. In a year billed as medium-high pressure race, I’m against him.

Kermadec – Profiles the strong for the race based on recent history and can forgive his Caulfield Stakes 4th beaten only 1.35 lengths to Criterion. Glen Boss had minimal intent to put the horse in a winning position last start and expect him to bounce of that performance. He looked considerably fitter in his Tuesday gallop at the valley and if he can get cover from a wide alley can win.  I couldn’t back him early at $7.50-8.00, expecting him to reach $10 but firm late in betting.

Preferment – Victoria Derby winner as a 3yo and flying this time in. Profiles well for the race 4th up as a 4yo through the Turnbull stakes proving his class. I expect him to drop well back and come with a sweeping run late and is likely to finish in the placings at best. Of the three Waller trained runners looked to handle The Valley the poorest, albeit OK. He’ll grow another leg at Flemington on Cup day and that’s where I’d prefer to back him.  Likely to drift from $13 in early markets.

Highland Reel – World Class international galloper with rock solid form, most recently beaten only 3.8 lengths to (eventual G1 Arc winner) Golden Horn in the G1 Irish Champion over 2012m. The start prior he bolted in the G1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington USA, the same race won by 2014 Cox Plate winner Adelaide. He’s proven on firm or soft and has drawn barrier 4 box seating in behind the cleaner. Ryan Moore takes the ride, but suspect he drifts from $5 in early markets.

Winx – Last start winner of G1 Epsom Handicap over 1600m. She didn’t have the clearest running at the top of the straight and still produced blistering late sectionals, her last 400 22.23 200 11.33. Looking back at her ATC Oaks performance (2nd), I’m confident she can run a strong 2040m at G1 level. They went 10+ lengths above the benchmark for the first 600m in the ATC Oaks and they finished the race off near that same level. ATC winner Gust Of Wind was gallant in the Caulfield Cup 4th beaten only 3.75 lengths albeit carrying 51kgs under handicap conditions. Chris Waller has kept Winx fresh with her runs spaced, her final two gallops at The Valley have been nothing short of exceptional. Her inside draw is an advantage with Highland Reel & Hartnell taking her into the race. I’m confident she’s taken the next step this preparation and will win or run top 3.

 

Betting Activity

BACK – WIN – Winx – I’ve rated her equal favourite with Highland Reel at $5.50.

BACK – WIN – Hartnell – I’ve rated him $11. Keen to take $17-$21 in early markets.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying!

The Betfair Insider.

*Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Related Articles

Betfair Insider Manikato Stakes Analysis 

The Rating Bureau Cox Plate Analysis