FEATURE PREVIEW: COX PLATE

Cox Plate tips and betting strategy are online now. Preview, speed map, race analysis, racing tips & betting strategies for the Cox Plate at The Valley.

AUTHOR

Dean Evans

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COX PLATE OVERVIEW

Rail: True | Current Track Conditions: Good 4 | Predicted Track Conditions: Good 4

Potentially 5mm of rain on Wednesday/Thursday but the track should be in good condition.

One of the premier G1 races on the Australian and World Racing calendar. In recent years, Winx won it 4 years in a row, whilst overseas imports Lys Gracieux, Sir Dragonet, State Of Rest and Adelaide are also recent winners.

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Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

1^st up – 3 winners, 3rd up – 2 winners, 4th up – 4 winners, 5th up – 3 winners
14 Day break – 4 winners, 21 day break – 4 winners, 41 day break – 1 winner, 77-125 day break – 3 winners
Mares have won 6 of the last 12 editions (Winx 4 of those). A 3yo colt, four 4yo entires and a 5yo entire were the other winners.
59kg – 79 starters for 1 winner, 47kg to 57kg – 65 starters for 11 winner

Speed Map

Zaaki likely pushes up to lead from the outside gate, with Alligator Blood inside him.

Romantic Warrior, King Colorado and Mr Brightside likely push forward.

My Oberon, Militarize and Victoria Road should be midfield.

Duais, Fangirl, Pinstriped & Gold Trip out the back.

Final Field- Key Chances

1. Romantic Warrior – Hong Kong superstar with 10 wins and 3 seconds from 15 starts. J Mac has ridden him 3 times for 4 wins, two at G1 level over this distance in Hong Kong before 4^th in the Turnbull. Stuck on despite a strong speed up front and not being fit. Will strip much fitter for this and has been working well.\

3. Mr Brightside – Won 5 in a row before 2^nd in the King Charles last start beaten 2.8L by Fangirl. A strong 2040m is a big query.

4. Alligator Blood – Has been strong winning the Underwood and Might & Power its past two starts. Was beaten 2.25L in this race last year, but going better this year. Different race shape the Cox Plate and will need to run a very strong 2040m here.

5. Gold Trip – Outstanding closing sectionals first up with a big weight then super impressive winning the Turnbull by 1.9L. Was unlucky in this race last year beaten 3.1L. Can’t discount.

8. Fangirl – Absolutely flying coming off a 2.8L demolition job winning the King Charles Stakes when heavily backed. Won a G1 over 1850m and Z Purton aboard. Can win.

9. Duais – Has hit the line impressively this prep and 3rds in the Underwood & Might & Power were good enough to figure in the placings here.

10. Victoria Road – Northern Hemisphere 3yo colt trained by Aiden O’Brien. Similar profile to Adelaide & State Of Rest who both won Cox Plates as Northern Hemisphere 3yos for the O’Brien family. Victoria Road won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile over 1760m at Keeneland as a 2yo. Ran 3rd in Ireland at G2 level beaten 1.5L last start.

11. Militarize – Only had 8 starts and has already won 3 G1 races. Ran excellent closing sectionals winning the Golden Rose, and then again when 5^th in the Caulfield Guineas running the quickest last 800m of the day. Drawn well and looks a big chance.

12. King Colorado – Myself and 47 Winning Edge Investments members are blessed simply to have a runner in the race. Won the $1M G1 JJ Atkins last prep as a 2yo. Had no luck first up in the Winx Stakes. Was disappointing on face value when 7^th beaten 2.1L in the Golden Rose as second favourite but was kept fresh, the race was stop start and the track very hard. Was trapped out 3 wide no cover in the Caulfield Guineas and stuck on well for 4^th. Keeps improving, fitter here and the 2040m should suit. Looks the knockout hope.

Top 5 Selections

10 – Victoria Road
8 – Fangirl
11 – Militarize
12 – King Colorado
1 – Romantic Warrior

Summary

Over the past 12 years mares, colts and young entires below topweight have dominated this race.

Victoria Road brings a similar overseas profile to recent winners Adelaide and State Of Rest.

Fangirl is absolutely flying and mares have a great record in this race, including those not known as 2040m runners such as Dane Ripper and Pinker Pinker.

Militarize and King Colorado can both measure up.

Romantic Warrior and Alligator Blood can figure.

Betting Strategy

BACK: #10 Victoria Road (WIN) for 1.5 units

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BACK: #8 Fangirl (WIN) for 1 unit

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BACK: #11 Militarize (WIN) for 1 unit

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BACK: #12 King Colorado (WIN) for 0.5 units

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SUMMARY

The W.S. Cox Plate is regarded as Australasia’s weight-for-age championship, attracting some of the best horses from Australia, New Zealand and further afield to The Valley each October to compete in the $5 million showpiece. First run in 1922, the 2040m contest is named in honour of the Moonee Valley Racing Club’s founder, William Samuel Cox. The final field, which has a limit of 14 runners, is determined each year by the club’s committee. For the best Cox Plate tips and predictions, head to the Betfair Hub where our team of experts analyse the chances of every runner.

NOTABLE WINNERS

In 2021, Joseph O’Brien’s State Of Rest became the third internationally-trained galloper – after Adelaide (trained by Joseph’s famous father Aidan) in 2014 and Lys Gracieux (Yoshito Yahagi) in 2019 – to win the Cox Plate. State of Rest, who was ridden by John Allen, was only awarded the win after surviving a protest lodged by connections of the runner-up Anamoe.

Prior to Japanese raider Lys Gracieux’s emphatic win as the hot favourite, the Cox Plate had been dominated by Winx. Chris Waller’s mighty mare became the first horse in history to win the Cox Plate on four occasions, as she swept to victory between 2015-2018 to surpass the feats of three-time winner Kingston Town (1980-82). Winx set a new track record on two occasions, first in 2015 before breaking her own record two years later, when she completed the course in 2m 2.94s.

Other notable winners include Rising Fast, who in 1954 became the first – and so far only – horse in history to complete the clean sweep of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. To help you find the winner this year, check out the Cox Plate 2022 tips section on the Betfair Hub where our team of experts study the form of each and every runner.

FAST FACTS

Favourites have an overall win rate of $41 in the Cox Plate.
The win rate increases to 70% for favourites which started at less than even money.
The shortest favourite in the history of the Cox Plate was Phar Lap, who jumped at odds of $1.07 when successfully defending his crown in 1931.
In the modern era, Winx survived a sustained challenge from Humidor to salute at the starting price of $1.10 in 2017, before creating history in 2018 as the $1.20 favourite.
The last favourite to win the Cox Plate was Lys Gracieux, who prevailed at the starting price of $2.50 in 2019.

With our team of tipsters dissecting the formlines from home and overseas, look no further than the Betfair Hub for your Cox Plate best bets. The Valley is a horses for course type of track, with some gallopers struggling to adapt to the tight turns, so the race can be a tricky proposition but you can rely on Betfair to deliver expert Cox Plate betting tips.