The Betfair Insider: 2015 Melbourne Cup

540x240_v4

THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Flemington, Tuesday 3 November 2015

 

Track – Good 3, Rail +2m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Tuesday 3rd – Max 20. Partly Cloudy. Light Winds.               

 

R7 15:00 Emirates Melbourne Cup G1 3200m

Speed Map:

2015 Melbourne Cup speedmap

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners 6yo Horses
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried < 56.5kg, 4 of past 5 winners 55kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have had a lead up run of 2000m or further in Australia
  • 4 of past 4 winners have been 5th or 6th up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 10 or wider
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP favourites

 

Previous race winners & Lead up result:

2014 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Protectionist 5 yo Horse – SP $8

56.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

 

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $21

57kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 8 week (let up) 7th September Stakes G3 2400 K Park UK

 

3rd – Who Shot Thebarman – SP $21

55kg BR 12 – 6th up, 2 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Fiorente 6 yo Horse – SP $7 fav

55kg BR 14 – 5th up, 10 days 3rd Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

 

2nd – Red CadeauxSP $61

56.5kg BR 23 – 8th up, 7 wk freshen 4th Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

 

3rd – Mount Athos – SP $13

54 kg BR 22 – 5th up, 10 week (let up) 2nd March Stks Listed 2800m Goodwood

 

2012 Rail +2m, Good 3

1st – Green Moon 6 yo Horse – SP $20

54.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, 10 days 7th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

 

2nd – Fiorente – SP $31

53.5kg BR 2 – 6th up, 7 week freshen 4th Prix Foy G2 2400m Longchamp

 

3rd – JakkalberrySP $81

55.5kg BR 19 – 6th up, 3 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2011 Rail +3m Good 3

1st – Dunaden 6 yo Horse – SP $8.50 fav

54.5kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong

 

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $31

53.5kg BR 15 – 9th up, 7 week freshen 3rd Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

 

3rd – Lucas Cranach – SP $13

53.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 5th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2010 Rail +3m, Soft 6

1st – Americain 6 yo Horse – SP $13

54.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2406m Geelong

 

2nd – Maluckyday – SP $9

51kg BR 5 – 6th up, 3 days 1st Lexus G3 2500m Flemington

 

3rd – So You Think – SP $3.00 fav

56kg – 6th up, 3 days 1st Mackinnon G1 2000m Flemington

 

Major Players:

 

snow sky silks

Heavily backed 2nd favourite in the Caulfield Cup and despite having a soft run in transit failed to quicken when required beaten 4.8 lengths 5th to finish alongside Fame Game. His sectionals over the final 1000m of that Caulfield Cup Performance indicate to me that he needed the run so I can’t completely rule him out. Prior to his well-documented Hardwicke Stakes 2414m win in June, he won the G2 Yorkshire Stakes over 2816m defeating Brown Panther & Havana Beat. It’s hard to think he will beat Fame Game home off his last run but given his class he’s OK value for Top 5 & Top 10 markets. Profile is against him with 58kg.

 

criterion silks

Simply flying. Beat home Mongolian Khan in the G1 Caulfield Stakes 2000m in his first run back on home soil producing fast closing sectionals. Hit the running rail around 550m from the winning post in the Cox Plate to chase home Winx in race record time. He follows the 2013 Fiorente & 2012 Green Moon path into the race and it’s fair to say he’s going as good, if not better than both of those gallopers. He performs well at Flemington, has the turn of foot required to win but has been weighted up to his best with 57.5kg.

 

fame game silks

Favourite since markets first opened and all the hype is warranted. His G1 Tenno Sho 3200m performance in May was a glimpse of what we can expect on Tuesday. He beat all except the highly talented Gold Ship savaging the line to be beaten 0.3 of a length. He’s proved he’s acclimatised well with a fast finishing 6th in the Caulfield Cup beaten only 4.85 lengths. He was last on the home turn and had little to no momentum but managed to record the fastest last 400m of the race in 23.13, final 200m in 11.51. He’s better suited at 3200m, profiles like the winner despite carrying 0.5 more than the most recent winners.  I’m confident that if he gets a trouble free run with cover he’ll win. $4 looks the right price.

 

our ivanhoe silks

Is in the profile sweet spot for the race with a tick in almost every box. His last two runs have been full of merit with the Melbourne Cup always intended to be his grand final. Beaten only 1.8 lengths 3rd in the Caulfield Cup which proved to me he’s absolutely flying.

He took off 600m from home and couldn’t quicken as well as Mongolian Khan. He was coming again at the line and that run will have him primed for Flemington which will be a more suitable track. Not sure he’s as fast as Fame Game but confident he can run top 3. Expect him to shorten from $25 on The Exchange.

 

big orange silks

Winner of the Goodwood Cup 3219m in July 2015 defeating Quest For More and Trip To Paris. He meets Trip To Paris 2kg worse at the weights off that performance. His last start failure at York was put down to losing a shoe and previous performances taking a toll. He does his best racing on Good surfaces, is a big horse so will be suited to Flemington. He sits within the profile of a possible winner and has been $120 into $70 on The Exchange he’s definitely not the worst roughie given how well Trip To Paris performed in the Caulfield Cup.

 

hartnell silks

Has been kept fresh this campaign with only three runs this time in. 1st up Chelmsford, 2nd up Turnbull & 3rd up Cox Plate. His Turnbull run convinced me he’s a Flemington horse finishing only 1.3 lengths behind Preferment.  Loved his effort in the Cox Plate when fast away but beaten for position by Highland Reel. He travelled throughout the race well but needed to make his run much earlier than the 600m mark, that’s when an opportunity genuinely presented for him. He was left flat footed, but boxed on well for 5th. He drops 3.5kg from WFA to Handicap conditions into the Cup and is primed to run a big race. He won the Queens Vase at Listed level over 3219m in June 2014. He was well beaten 6.25 lengths at G1 level in the St Leger later that year over 2937m. James McDonald will take the ride but I think he’s most effective between 2000m-2400m and in hindsight maybe the Caulfield Cup was his best chance to win a big one?

 

max dynamite silks

I expect him to map further back in running then most having him somewhere near Trip To Paris. Impressive winner of the G2 Lonsdale Cup by 4.5 lengths at his last start defeating Big Orange 14 lengths and Trip to Paris 11.5 lengths on a soft track. That was his 3rd career win and prior to that he’d only won a 2200m Maiden and a 3219m Maiden Hurdle. The key point is that all wins have come on rain affected ground. He worked the house down in a track gallop at Flemington last week but I feel he’s under the odds at $14.

 

trip to paris silks

Placed in the Goodwood Cup 3 starts back conceding weight to Big Orange and Quest For More. Suffered interference between the 600-400m mark of the Caulfield Cup but regrouped to run the fastest last 400 splits of the race home in 22.80 with a final 200 of 11.60. The only horse home faster over the final 200m was Fame Game. Sits in the profile sweet spot with a winning weight and has that crucial lead up run in Australia box ticked. Hard to see him moving from the $9-10 mark.

 

 

sky hunter silks

Last start runner up in the G3 Legacy Cup over 2213m at Newbury in September. He carried 61kgs on that occasion beating Eagle Top (58.5kgs). Eagle Top finished 2nd to Snow Sky at level weights in the Hardwicke Stakes over 2414m so it’s not that difficult to make a case for Sky Hunter with only 54kgs here. Two starts ago in March he won the G2 City Of Gold at Meydan. He ran 3rd in the G1 French Derby as a 3yo but is yet to win beyond 2418m. He’s won 6 times from 11 starts with William Buick booked to ride, I have him top pick of the Internationals yet to race in Australia. I expect him to shorten from $50 on The Exchange.

 

grand marshal silks

I expected a much more positive ride in the Caulfield Cup but he was clearly not out there to win. Winner of the Sydney Cup in April so no issue with 3200m. Needs to be in the first half of the field, but not convinced he can run the 3200m quick enough to win. Chris Waller couldn’t have him any better and will keep hitting the line. Genuine top 10 chance.

 

 

preferment silks

Unexpected winner of the Hill Stakes & Turnbull Stakes at 2000m this time in. Thought his run in the Cox Plate was a pass, the horse looked dour, ready for 3200m. He’s undefeated at Flemington relishing the 2500m Derby trip in his win as a 3yo. The biggest plus is the 4.5kg drop from WFA to Handicap conditions coming into this race from the Cox Plate. Stable opted to bypass the Caulfield Cup for this and he looks the standout runner of the locals. Expect his price to remain steady around the $13 mark.

 

 

almoonqith silks

Looked a good setup for him in the G3 Geelong Cup over 2400m and had the race won a long way out his last 400 23.55 200 12.08. He only received a 1kg penalty for his 1.75 length win to Dandino with 5 lengths back to third. He won over 2800 in Meydan in the G2 Nad Al Sheeba but then failed 4 weeks later in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup over 3200m. He profiles strongly for the race and with only 53.5kg and is peaking at the right time. Has drawn perfectly in barrier 10 and profiles well for the race. $17 looks rock bottom and expect him to drift.

 

kingfisher silks

Runner up to Trip To Paris in the G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4023m in June at level weights. Well beaten at his next start in the St Leger Trial 2816m by 16 lengths to Order Of St George as a $3.50 SP favourite. No Better in his most recent outing beaten 43 lengths in the St Leger 2816m won by the same horse (OOST).  Was as short as $25 in early markets but has now drifted to $44. Lloyd Williams is the new owner and it would be a remarkable training performance to turn him around here.

 

 

bondi beach silks

Faces a tough task as a 4yo with only 5 career starts to his name. Winner of the G3 Curragh Cup over 2816m. Runner up at his latest start in the G1 St Leger 2917m at Doncaster. Carries a feather weight with 52.5kg and commands respect trained by Aidan O’Brien. The profile is against him favouring internationals that have had at least one start in Australia leading into the Cup. It’s only a matter of time before an international wins first up into the race with the runner’s up in the last 3 years all coming off a let up from UK racing. This runner is 6th up in his first preparation off a let up. He needs to break all modern day records and logic to win and has been $24 out to $30 over the past week.

 

excess knowledge silks

Profiles well for the race being a 6yo horse on the minimum weight. His performance on Saturday when three wide in the G3 Lexus Stakes over 2500m indicates 3200m will be no issue for him. Drops 5.5 kg here but fear barrier 24 might have put an end to his winning chance. Needs a miracle ride and most likely outcome would be top five. Expect him to shorten slightly from $31.

 

gust of wind silks

Mapped well but outsprinted over 2400m in the Caulfield Cup, still broke 12 seconds for her final 200 (11.96). Confident that she’ll be better suited to Flemington and out to 3200m. The last 10 years of profiles for the race are against her with no mare winning since Makybe Diva in 2005. Ethereal was the last 4yo mare to win in 2001. Has the right form but suspect only superstar mares win the race from now on. Expecting her to drift from $38 on the Exchange.

 

Betting Activity:

BACK – WIN – FAME GAME – Despite only $4 it’s impossible to not have a winning result given his class.

BACK – WIN – OUR IVANHOWE – Have marked him 3rd favourite at $13

BACK – E/W – SKY HUNTER – Best International Roughie. Marked 4th favourite $15

LAY – E/W – MAX DYNAMITE – Have rated him double his current market price.

LAY – E/W – CRITERION – Looks weighted out of the race.

LAY – PLACE – THE UNITED STATES – Has inferior form and 3200m a query.

 

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying!

The Betfair Insider

 

 

*Speed Maps courtesy of Racing & Sports.

 

insider cup header