Greyhound Racing Tips: Expert Previews

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Golden Easter Egg Final | Wentworth Park | Saturday 10 April

Wentworth Park Race 8

Distance: 520m

Track Record: Shakey Jakey 29.07 seconds (6/4/14)


Field and Stats

Farmor Beach
No best winning time.

Ran 30.05 in heat third placing and followed up with second in semi final in 29.81 (PB). Ran 5.53 1st split in heat and 5.50 1st split in semi final. 31 career starts for 16 wins and 8 placings. 4 starts over this trip for 1 second and 1 third. Only missed a placing once in 5 starts from this draw.

He showed great courage from Box 4 in the semi final to barge through and he lost some momentum at a key point. He has a much better draw this time around in the cherry it is simply a case if he has the class to win the most prestigious greyhound race in NSW.

Box draws can win these big races and I have always considered him to be a much better dog from an inside draw so I think he is worth a small saver here.

Vicki’s Queen
Best 29.66.

Ran this time in semi final win with a 5.47 PB. Ran a PB when running second in heat the week prior in 29.62. 20 career starts for 9 wins and 3 placings. 12 starts over this trip for 7 wins and 2 seconds. 3 wins from this draw in 4 attempts.

She is very versatile and can race in a forward position from any draw. When she draws wide she races like she is suited to wide draws but when she starts from the rails she will still push hard to the rails and be prominent.

She starts here for dual Million Dollar Chase winning trainer Peter Lagogiane so how can you say she can’t win? If you follow the kennel religiously you would be well in front and with Wow likely to push off the track I think she can run a cheeky race here and should be able to finish in the Top 4.

Wow
Best 29.38 (27/3/21)

Won his heat in 29.38 and then led all the way in semi final in 29.45 with a 1st split of 5.41. Has a PB 1st split of 5.37 (16/1/21). 30 career starts for 19 wins and 8 placings. 8 wins and 1 second from 11 starts at this venue. Only 2 starts from this draw for 1 win & 1 second. Group 1 Temlee winner over 525m at The Meadows.

Unfortunately I took him on last start as I thought he might get held up off an inside draw, but he came out firing and exploded to a big lead and gave nothing else a chance. Whilst I still prefer him from a wide draw, he is becoming more experienced and versatile.

Box 3 should be able to suit him here, right in line with the lure and both Farmor Beach and Vicki’s Queen should be going left at box rise. Baroque Knight doesn’t come out humming either and takes a slight step to the right when the lids open which adds to my confidence Wow can be leading all the way here.

Baroque Knight
Best 30.05 (27/2/21)

Ran second in both heat and semi final in times of 29.96 (PB) and 30.02 respectively. Has a 5.50 PB 1st split (27/2/21). 22 career starts for 11 wins and 5 placings. 1 win and 2 placings from 5 attempts over this trip and has the same stats from starts from Box 4. This is his first Group race final.

He did benefit from some trouble in his semi final run but having said that he showed great mid race acceleration and chased his heart out. I don’t think he has the class to win this but he is a greyhound to follow over the coming months.

Devil Sixteen
Best 29.54

Ran this time in semi final win with a 1st split of 5.45 (PB). 41 career starts for 7 wins and 15 placings. Has yet to miss a placing over this trip in 3 attempts. 4 starts from this draw for 2 wins and 2 placings. This is her first Group race final.

This is probably a fairly simple equation, if she gained a soft lead she could run a fantastic race here but if she doesn’t lead I am not sure where she lands here and may be making up the numbers. Another squeeze draw is no help either and Fire and Ice will also be charging across. I don’t think she can win.

Fire And Ice
Best 29.64 (5/8/20)

Ran second in heat in 29.74 and then won semi final in 29.65 with respective 1st splits of 5.52 and 5.39 (quickest of semi finals). Has a PB 1st split of 5.32 (16/1/21). 56 career starts for 20 wins and 18 placings. 19 starts over this trip for 7 wins and 6 placings. 5 wins and 1 second from 9 attempts this draw.

She has been racing in some of the best races New South Wales has to offer for well over a year. She is normally a great betting commodity because she shows a great forward pattern in her races and you know where you stand with her.

Box 6 isn’t the worst draw for her either as she tends to mid-track in her races. If there was some trouble behind her early I could see her being in the finish but absolutely everything would need to go right. She may also make or break Tommy Shelby’s winning chances as if she explodes out it may be difficult for Tommy to cross her.

Zipping Krygios
Best 29.37 (20/1/21)

Won his heat in 29.47 and runner up in semi final in 29.75 with respective first splits of 5.44 and 5.50. Youngest chaser in field with 19 career starts for 9 wins and 7 placings. 13 starts over this trip for 7 wins and 5 placings. Only 1 start from this draw for 1 second. This is his first Group race final.

This dog just has so much ability but it may be a case of too much too soon here. The box draw looks very problematic with so much speed either side of him. In a field of this depth I can see him finding some trouble at the first turn and I prefer others.

Tommy Shelby
Best 29.40 (27/3/21)

Ran this time in heat win and then followed up with running second in 29.79 in semi final. Ran a 5.34 1st split in heat win. 43 career starts for 28 wins and 11 placings. Never missed a placing here in 6 attempts. 4 wins and 2 placings from 7 starts this draw.  Multiple Group race winner including the Group 1 Australian Cup at The Meadows and the Hobart Thousand (from this draw).

‘The People’s Dog’ doesn’t seem to have much luck with Box draws in Group race finals. In his last four big race Group finals his box draws have been 4,6,6,8. The outside draw here is no help to his chances although to negate that, he does love racing at this venue. I think he will need a career-best beginning here and run 5.34 or quicker early to cross these rivals cleanly.

Fire And Ice I could see pesting him at the first turn. It is not the worst draw for him based on the map and data, however, I just think there are other dogs in this race with more favourable box draws and maps and I am leaning to the inside brigade.

Faithy Bale (1st emergency)
No best winning time

Ran third in semi final in 29.87. 1st split PB of 5.54. 65 career starts for 21 wins and 22 placings. Has yet to win over this trip in 4 starts but has placed 3 times. Will be most experienced chaser in field if she gains a start.

Her best hopes to win this would be an inside draw and a speedy beginning. She would need to fly the lids to be a chance to win this and then may need some trouble behind her. I wouldn’t be knocked over with a feather if she won but I prefer others.

Ritza Coen (2nd emergency)
Best 29.49 (1/7/20)

Ran third in semi final in 29.89 with a 1st split of 5.59. Has had 35 starts over this track and trip for 10 wins and 13 placings. Has finished 3rd or 4th in his last 7 starts.

He is an enigmatic type who is an absolute flying machine at his best but can also produce some disappointing runs. He would need a rails draw to be any chance to win this but you would be a brave person to suggest he couldn’t win.


Selections

1st – Wow (3)

2nd – Farmor Beach (1)

3rd – Vicki’s Queen (2)

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Wow at $3.00+ for 3 units

BACK (WIN) — Farmor Beach at $11+ for 0.5 units

Race 1 – 520m

Aston Reward whilst being costly in recent starts hasn’t had much luck at the same time. Last start she was in a hot heat of the New Sensation and even though it was a 5 dog field there were some speedy commodities involved. Box 8 was definitely a negative for her and just when she looked like finding a forward position she was pushed wide by Pablo Mouse.

Even though she found some trouble she was still able to run 30.05. Ritza Daniel’s best time over track and distance is 30.06 and he can be only moderately away in his races. He needs to contend with a full field and inside draw here so I am hoping this field is more to Aston Reward’s liking to kick off the night with a winner.

BACK (WIN) — Aston Reward for 1.5 units at $3+


Race 2 – 520m – Ultra Sense Final

In what looks like an even race with some sticky box draws Papi Go Fast should be able to improve on the clock here with his second look at the venue, and he would need to. But, the way the draws have panned out here I think he can find the early lead and give them something to chase. He has impeccable box manners and he is getting stronger as his career goes on.  Bit Flash and Redshift Seven have much trickier draws this time around, both had Box 8 last start and I think these draws are a lot more awkward for them.

Whilst I think he is the best dog in the race, Bit Flash received a lovely cart into the race and a stack of early space from Papi Go fast in their heat run. I think the tables could be turned this time.

BACK (WIN) — Papi Go Fast for 2 units at $5.00+


Race 3 – 520m

Loui Wonton is never far away over this trick and trip and has finished in the money in 5 of his 8 starts here. He was first up from a spell at Dapto recently and despite uncharacteristically missing the start he barged through at the first turn and held on to win. It was a gutsy win. He could strip better fitness-wise second up and I think he has been forgotten about in early markets and I don’t think he should be the outsider of the field. Simply Smudge should hold its line early so he should avoid him early.

Dip It in will need everything to go right from the outside draw. He can absolutely still win this but he represents no value whatsoever at close to red figures.

BACK (EW) — Loui Wonton for 1 unit each way at $20+/$5+


Race 4 – 520m

Chrissie Banner exploded out of the lids in a lovely pipe opener at Maitland over 400 metres on Monday night in a best of the night time of 22.18. Whilst her first sectional times of 5.50 and 5.51 in her last two starts at this venue look problematic, the way she exploded the lids at Maitland suggests to me she may be back on top of her game in regards to her box manners.

Box 8 looks perfect for her to explode out with space to her outside. Fence Lady can begin speedily and she may be able to hold up some of the inside brigade as she crosses over to the rails.  Maldini looks a superb saver here. He can be slow away but he had no luck whatsoever in the run here last start against some quality dogs. He could be coming home like a freight train if there was any trouble upfront.

BACK (WIN) — Chrissie Banner for 2 units at $2.50+

BACK (WIN) — Maldini for 0.5 units at $8+


Race 5 – 520m – New Sensation Final

Louis Rumble is going to take a power of beating here in this New Sensation final from the cherry. He hasn’t been defeated from this draw yet in 2 starts and the way he destroyed his rivals from Box 4 in his heat run, the inside draw looks like a huge positive for him.

In addition, Teddy The Bear likes to shift off the track in his races so he should give Louis Rumble plenty of room. Looking at the map and with Irinka Riley and Jungle Deuce having tricky draws this looks to be the best-drawn dog all night and I am very keen to play here.

BACK (WIN) — Louis Rumble for 4 units at $2.50+


Race 6 – 720m – Association Cup Final

Stanley Road should be able to add another Group 1 to his resume here with even luck. Whilst he patterns like a railer in his races and with Box 7 here some would see it as a negative. However, one thing I have noticed with the Allen Deed progeny is that they prefer to be drawn out wide, at least early in the races. They need room to move early and to click into gear. He has been racing like a real dour stayer of late but these rivals he has dealt with all before.

Burn Time looks to be his main rival based on current form but his draw from Box 2 looks trickier this week. He is a wide runner and also has to avoid Fernando Cazz who could be scorching along early and looks the obvious leader. Stanley Road will need to stay within a cricket pitch of her at the winning post the first time around. Prim and Proper and Let’s See must be respected but at face value, I think Stanley Road flies by them late.

BACK (WIN) — #7 Stanley Road for 2 units at $2.25+


Race 7 – 520m – The Ambrosoli

With Fire Legend having a tricky draw in Box 5 and with Zulu Warlord being at rock bottom odds I think there is some great value here in The Ambrosoli.

Whilst there is a chance speedy beginner Zulu Warlord could lead all the way I think he has come up too short in early markets. Shima Jake needs to begin better than what he did in his Golden Easter Egg semi-final but he had no luck when forced wide at the first turn and he kept coming late. He doesn’t have the best draw again here but with some luck this time around at the first turn he is right in this.

Ritza Coen is an enigmatic type but on his night he is one of the fastest dogs in New South Wales. I could see him minding his own business along the fence here, staying out of trouble and flashing home late along the rails. At $15 plus on the Exchange, he is worth a round of drinks on.

BACK (EW) — Shima Jake for 1.5 units each way at $16+/$4+

BACK (EW) — Ritza Coen for 1 unit each way at $16+/$4+


Race 8 – Golden Easter Egg Final

See first tab on page for Golden Easter Egg Final preview and tips.


Race 9 – 520m

Sarita may find this easier than recent starts. She needs to slightly improve at box rise but just as she was accelerating into a forward position she was cut off and was up against it from then on but she still finished hard along the paint.

This race sets up for some backmarkers to launch late as I could see Sizzle Fly leading early but falling into a hole by the home turn. Impress Troy has won 4 starts in a row and must be respected but I thought he was lucky to win a weaker race at Maitland on Monday night and is rock bottom odds here.

BACK (WIN) — Sarita for 1.5 units at $6.00+


Race 10 – 520m

Sunburnt Highway is one of the most honest dogs in Australia but may be racing a rung or two below his best at the moment. Last start at Dapto he was deep into red figures on the exchange and even though he had a stack of early room he still couldn’t get the job done. Given he is likely to start well into red figures here again and at start number 124 I am happy to take him on. If Buck’s Future can stay within striking distance he may be the one to finish over the top of Sunburnt Highway late.

LAY (WIN) — Sunburnt Highway for 1.5 units at up to $1.60


Race 11 – 520m

Fascinating race to end the night here. Ebby Jet Power has been flying of late including a slick 29.40 win here on Wednesday night. On paper, he really should be marching straight to the front and leading all the way here. However, Pablo Mouse can show lightning early speed and even though Pablo Mouse only went 5.44 early last start I think she can go considerably quicker based on her form over Richmond and Maitland over 400 metres.

If Pablo Mouse and Ebby come together early then this may set the race up for Lakeview Cruiser who will be minding his own business along the rails and flashing home late.

It is very likely Lakeview Cruiser will be completely forgotten in betting having never raced at Wentworth Park before. This dog can really run and has a 29.74 win at The Meadows on his resume. His odds will be too tempting to play for a very small bet to end the night.

BACK (WIN) — Lakeview Cruiser for 1 unit at $5.00+ 


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Current Results

Total Units Staked: 546.00

Total Units Returned: 503.42

ROI: -7.80%


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