TRB Race Assessment: Free Horse Racing Tips

 3:53 21 June 12 Eagle Farm Race 8 1400m 3YO+ Gp1 HCP

Weather: Sunny 22c
Track Condition: Good 4 | Rail +4m
Track Pattern: EVEN, but 1-2 wide to the turn best

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Speed & Assessed Price Summary

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Winning Standard

A rating standard of 105+

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Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#	Horses	Price	Comment
11	Vega One	5	He sets up very well for this race. He was excellent winning the G1 Kingsford Smith last start and with the drop to 53kg, he brings a 106.3 rating to this race, the best last start figure in the field. He did get one of the best rides ever to win, but he has various other runs in his form history between 104 and 107.5, so there was no fluke in that last start and there's every reason to expect he can hold or even improve slightly for what has no doubt been a target race all preparation. The other big thing I see in his favour is the draw / map. He looks to get a very economical run around midfield and assuming even luck, he'll be able to pick his way between runners in the early part of the straight, before emerging in the last 150m to stake his winning claim. That's the ideal type of run for an off-pace horse at this track when the rail is out 4m. It's obviously a competitive race with plenty of potential winners, but he has to be on top for me.
12	The Harrovian	8	He was first-up off a 63 day break into the Doomben 10,000 and his 104.1 rating from that run looks a terrific platform to bring to this race. He has been set to peak for this and does have a 105.8 from last Spring over 1350m. It's more than reasonable to think that with even luck he can at least go close to reaching that level again. He's right among the genuine chances, although looks at his right price in the market at the moment.
18	Apache Chase	8	He looks a great value chance to me. A narrow 1400m win in the Fred Best doesn't standout as strong form, but he ran good overall time with 57kg and dropping to 50.5kg here gives him a 105.6 performance rating that is hard to beat. It's worth pointing out that after settling a good pace early in that race, he went very fast between the 800m and 400m so his effort to still win had plenty of merit. While there are four clear go forward horses in this race that could create some early pressure, virtually every other runner is a mid-filed / get back type. Once positions are found in this race, it wouldn't surprise me if the speed just backed off slightly for 200-300m. If that happens and Apache chase can get a little bit more of a break than he had last start, then he's capable of giving a big kick with no weight on his back and proving very hard to run down.
20	Amish Boy	10	He still needs another scratching to get a run, but if he can squeeze into the field, I expect him to be a genuine winning chance. He was a close up 3rd behind Apache Chase and Ayrton in the Fred Best, but clocked some seriously fast sectionals to get there after still being 11 lengths off the lead from a wide draw at the 600m mark. That type of sprint with his 104.6 rating and a much better draw to settle around midfield presents as an appealing scenario. He's a great value longshot (if he gets a run.)
7	Wild Planet	12	He ran a new peak of 103.8 FUP in the Doomben 10,000 behind Eduardo, hitting the line powerfully. In the past he's been better at 1400m, which gives him good prospects to improve again up to that trip in this race. He no doubt brings competitive credentials and is capable of winning, but a few others rate slightly better on their lead up runs and he has been done no favours by the map. I have to bet around him.
16	Subpoenaed	12	A 104.4 last start in the G1 Sangster at WFA in Adelaide is very competitive form for this race. One notable thing in her profile is that three of her last six runs represent the three best ratings she's run in her career so far and two of those have been in this calendar year. That tells me that she's a mare just who is now fulfilling her potential under Chris Waller and that she may still have new peaks to come. The stable had the option to aim her at the Dane Ripper, but chose this race, so she must be pleasing them. A 104.4 at 1200m last start (clearly her best at that trip) and now stepping to a much more preferred 1400m is a scenario that could see her improve again. The challenge of course is that barrier and the type of trip she gets. That's really the only concern though. Everything else says to me that she fits among the genuine chances in this race and is capable of winning.
2	Savatoxl	21	A 105.8 spike in his Goodwood win is super competitive, but he regressed to 102.2 last start, although with some excuse pulling up slightly lame. It wouldn't be a shock if he won, but I have to prefer others specifically set for this race and coming into it on the up.
3	Tofane	21	Her 106.5 and 105 in the Autumn of 2020 could win, but she doesn’t appear quite the same horse now. She closed off well behind Emerald Kingdom LS, but was entitled do after doing no work early. Her 101.5 from that run is close to 2L short of what's needed here.
10	Victorem	21	He's come back well this prep and brings a 103.4 from his lead up run in the G1 Kingsford Smith. That's competitive, but 102 to 103.5 seems to be his range of top form, so he'll need to find a new peak.
8	Niccanova	23	His 101.5 last start and 103 first up says he's going well this prep and he has no doubt been set for this race. He ran 103 in this last year, but is yet to go any better than that. He'll need at least a +1 length new peak if he's to win.
1	Mr Quickie	26	His 106.5 in the G1 Toorak last Spring could win this, but all of his other form / ratings is a couple of lengths short. He'll also need a stack of luck after settling no better than midfield on the rail.
13	Signore Fox	26	He ran 105.7 in the Kingsford Smithen when just 0.6L behind Vega One and that's a very competitive performance in this race. The big query is that he was 50/1 that day and all of his form prior doesn't get close to winning this.
14	Emerald Kingdom	26	His last start 102.6 is safely short of winning this, but he comes into this 3rd up and does have a one off 106.6 spike rating from March 2020 when he won a race by 4.3 lengths at this track and distance in very fast time. He's a rightful longshot, but wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world if he went close.
4	Imaging	34	Fresh and at 1400m is the scenario he ran 105.1 in the CF Orr during the early Autumn and he has a similar rating over 1600m from last Spring. He's certainly capable on those efforts, but the rest of his form is safely short of winning and he's going to be well back and / or wide and chasing from a fair way out.
6	So Si Bon	51	His typical range is 102-103 with a number of runs below that level. He's a little outlcassed in a race like this.
9	I Am Superman	51	His 102.5 peak is only about 1.5 lengths off what's needed, but there's plenty of horses around that mark or better in this race.
19	Outback Barbie	67	Looks a little outclassed on her peak form and she tends to run her best away from Eagle Farm
21	Blazejowski	151	Looks well and truly outclassed.
5	Olmedo	201	His best is not good enough and he's been terribly inconsistent so far in Australia.
17	Master Jamie	501	Looks totally outclassed.

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Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Vega One (stake for 0.8% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Apache Chase (stake for 0.5% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Subpoenaed (stake for 0.3% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Amish Boy (stake for 0.4% of your bank (needs a scratching to gain a start))