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Blamey StakesAustralian Guineas

 3:25 27 Feb 21 Flemington Race 6 1600m 3YO+ Gp2 SWP

Weather — Mostly sunny 24c

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail +2m

Track Pattern — Expecting EVEN

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 101+

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

TabHorsesPriceComment
11Buffalo River$2.60He was narrowly beaten by Regardsmaree last start (strong form), but did give that horse 5kg so there's no doubt he ran particularly well. With the 4kg weight drop for this, he brings a 103 rating and that's clearly the mark to beat. That's his best performance so far on Good ground and within a length of his 104.6 and 104.7 career peaks that came on wet. To me that's a positive sign that he's come back in great shape this preparation. The strength of that last start figure and the prospect of an easy lead makes him clearly the one to beat.
5Best Of Days$4.50He's racing in great form with 100, 101.6 and 100.9 in his last three. After winning last start when going forward to lead at a slow pace, I expect another positive ride in this. He won't get the front with Buffalo River to hold him out, but should enjoy another good run up near the lead. He looks set to be somewhere in the finish again.
7Star Of The Seas$6.50Ran 97.5 first-up over an unsuitable 1200m and will be much better suited up to 1600m here. He's an inconsistent type, but did run 104 when second to Kolding over 1600m on dry ground last prep with the likes of Imaging, Verry Elleegant and Colette behind him. That form wins this, but it is a one-off, around a stack of other runs in the 98-100 range. He's a competitive chance, but I don't see any appeal at current prices.
6Mystic Journey$11.00She's not the same horse we saw in the Autumn of 2019 or even Spring of that year where she ran peaks in the 104 to 106 range. She was inconsistent last Spring (2020), rating 94, 92.5 and 100 in three runs and hasn't done enough this prep to think she can turn it around, rating 96.9 and 90.3 in two Tasmanian runs. Her career best would blow this field away, but that's two years old now and I have to assess her more on what we've seen in the last 12 months.
1Fifty Stars$13.00With 59kg his very best form of 101 to 101.8 is only just above the 101+ standard and he was nowhere near that first-up, running 88 in Sydney with every chance late to do more. The factor that has to keep him somewhere in the mix is his Flemington record. He's had 5 runs at Flemington 1600m and has rated between 99 and 101.2 in each, with an average of 100. Every one of those however has been off a rating base at least 3L better than he ran first-up, so he's not for me in this race, but I certainly respect that he could run very well.
2Mirage Dancer$41.00First-up. He ran 98.7 over 1700m FUP at Caulfield during the Spring and if he could re-produce that then he wouldn't finish too far away in this. It would be a shock if he won though.
4Irish Flame$41.00Ran 95.7 first-up and should be fitter for that, plus a little more suited up to 1600m. He still looks outclassed though in a race where 101+ will be needed to win.
10Vassilator$41.00Ran 95.9 last start and prior to that had two runs over 1400m at this track rating around the 99 level, which are career peaks. He needs to go to a new level to win this.
9Mahamedeis$61.00Ran 94.5 first-up over 1400m and ideally needs 2000m to show his best. He can improve on last start at 1600m here, but I'd be surprised if it was enough to put him somewhere in the finish.
3Neufbosc$151.00He needs further to show his best and even that isn't good enough with 58kg in this race. He's outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Buffalo River (stake 1.50% of your bank)

 4:05 27 Feb 21 Flemington Race 7 1600m 3YO Gp1 SW

Weather — Mostly sunny 24c

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail +2m

Track Pattern — Expecting EVEN

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 99+

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

TabHorsesPriceComment
2Tagaloa$3.00His CS Hayes win was outstanding. He gave weight to the entire field, sat right up near the fast pace and still ran the best last 200m in the field to comfortably hold them all at bay. Not only was his last 200m the best, but he was stronger than anything at the time they were running through the line. That's rare to see from an on-pace runner in a Group class race that has endured a fast early speed. Back to set weights in this, his 101.3 rating is clearly the mark to beat and that late strength is a good positive sign stepping up to 1600m. While drawn wide, he looks capable of working across the field, with the good early speed likely to see some gaps open up. I'd prefer that scenario to one where they might go slower early. Tagaloa has built a profile that says he enjoys strong speed in his races. His three peak performanes of 101.3, 101.2 and 98.8 (wide all the way) have come in solid to fast run races. He's seemed less effective when the pace has been more even early. WIth such strong credentials, it's impossible to get away from him as clearly the one to beat in this race. This type of profile has been extremely successful for me over many years, so he's an easy bet to make.
16Zou Dancer$6.50She's the fresh horse on the scene with a different formline to the other chances in this race and it's hard not to be impressed with her first-up win over 1400m at this track a fortnight ago. She trailed a strong pace and then still accelerated quickly to put the race away, winning by 4.8 lengths with a 98.8 rating. It's worth noting though that on the same day she still ran slower time with a slower last 600m and last 200m compared to Tagaloa in the CS Hayes. What she does bring though is an element of untapped potential about her. After just five starts she may still have more to offer and with a very competitive rating base, that has to represent a threat.
3Aysar$7.50He had every chance to beat Tagaloa last start and seems to be developing a knack of not wanting to win. A 3.5kg weight swing against him gives him a 96.3 rating off last start, but he did run 98-99 in the Spring, so he does have a little more to offer that can see him threaten. Despite his potential fear of crossing the winning post first, he still has to figure right among the leading chances.
1Ole Kirk$10.00I'm not yet sure what to make of him this prep? His 96.2 first up over 1200m on wet ground in Sydney was sound enough and he looked likely to be fitter for that, but his Futurity run last week was plain. There's no doubt he was in the worst ground and never really a winning chance, but he was under pressure a fair way out, beaten 6.5 lengths and I didn't like the way he gave ground over the final 75m. He ran on in the early part of the straight to get a length in front of Cross Haven (who did all the work up on the lead in the worst part of the track), but by the finish Ole Kirk had given ground to finish back level with that horse. So Si Bon was down on the inside right near Ole Kirk with 100m to go and ended up putting just over 2.5 lengths on him by the finish. That late weakness has to be a red flag coming into this race. We know that on his best he can win, but off what we saw last week and given the map which is likely to see him give a big head start, I can't possibly like him. His overall talent has to keep him somewhere in the pricing, but there's noting at all that makes me want to back him, even if he drifted in price.
4Cherry Tortoni$17.00A 95.1 when beaten 2.7L behind Tagaloa last start was a solid return. The draw / map presents a big challenge here, but he'll be fitter for that first-up run and better suited up to 1600m.
8Poland$18.00He ran a clear new peak of 94.7 when he won first-up, chasing a fast speed and proving too strong at the end of 1400m. There was plenty of merit in that performance and he's clearly come back a better horse. That potential to keep improving to run new peaks is a positive, but he still needs to run at least 2L better again to get himself in the finish of this.
13Cambourne$23.00He was heavily backed in early markets the morning of the CS Hayes, but ran poorly, beaten 6.7L. That first-up confidence and the fact he was a 94-95 horse last prep with potential to improve makes him one to watch in this race, but I couldn't possibly like him as a potential winner.
5Dom To Shoot$26.00He ran on well in the CS Hayes behind Tagaloa before peaking late to be beaten 3.5L. Fitter for that and better suited up to 1600m from a more favourable draw are all positives, but he does have that 3.5L to make up and a 3.5kg weight swing against him under the SW scale. With a career peak of just 96, he needs to find an entire new level to run the 99+ that will be needed to figure in the finish.
12Jet Propulsion$26.00Ran OK when beaten 2.6L behind Poland first-up (89.6 rating). Back in the Spring he established himself at the 95-96 level and that was only his first prep, providing some indicators that he could be even better than that with more time. He has to be a longshot here, but is one that could show significant improvement.
11It'sourtime$67.00A peak so far of 92.5 says he's outlassed at this level.
9Beltoro$81.00Beaten 5.5L behind Tagaloa last start at 30/1. He could improve, but so far only has a peak of 94.2
7Grandslam$101.00Aside from a one-off 95.6 rating spike at 60/1 when beaten 2.5L in the Caulfield Guineas, the rest of his form is ordinary, including his first-up run behind Tagaloa.
10Embolism$101.00Ran poorly first-up in the CS Hayes behind Tagaloa at 20/1. His best so far is only 92.
15Here To Shock$151.00Pulled up with Mucous and slow recovery out of the CS Hayes after starting $11 so there is some reason to forgive. Still, his peak prio is only 90, so he needs to massive improvement.
14Ironedge$251.00Comes off a Ballarat Maiden win (83) and was soundly beaten in easier stakes class races during the Spring.
17Lofty Star$251.00First emergency. He was beaten in a Sandown Class 1 last start. He's well and truly outclassed.
6Lunar Fox$501.00Did nothing at 150/1 first-up in the CS Hayes behind Tagaloa. Outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Good

BACK (WIN) — Tagaloa (stake 1.50 % of your bank)

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 128.75

Total Units Returned: 126.48

ROI: -1.77%

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