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 3:13 21 June 12 Eagle Farm Race 7 1600m 2YO Gp1 SW

Weather: Sunny 22c
Track Condition: Good 4 | Rail +4m
Track Pattern: EVEN, but 1-2 wide to the turn best


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 88.5+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
2Converge3Ridden much further back than we've seen in the past due to the wide draw, he was terrific when flying home late for second to Tiger Of Malay in the SIres. A very fast last 400m by 2YO standards adds some good support to his 89.6 rating. We've seen in Sydney that he has no issue with 1600m (he ran 89.3 winning in April) and the big key is here that from a good drawn he should settle much closer. I think that's a significant angle in this race, especially given he comes off a last start performance capable of winning this race. He's the one to beat.
1Tiger Of Malay5.5He ran 89.8 to win the G2 Sires with good merit after being a little slow into stride, racing wide and then making a slightly early move. That's only the second time this horse has been on Good ground in his career, with the only other run an 89 rating when a close second in the Pago Pago. He gets those conditions again in this race and was still very solid through the line at the end of 1400m, so 1600m looks no issue. He will however he will need a good ride from that barrier and early tactics will be interesting. If he can find a decent run in transit, then I expect him to be hard to beat.
5Port Louis7He ran on strongly from the back in the Sires and looked like he'd potentially win, but then just peaked on his run. I felt Tiger Of Malay was holding him through the line and that horse did much more work early. His 88.7 rating fits right among the top three chances and we saw him run 88 in the G1 Champagne over 1600m in Sydney, but the question is whether he can improve off that? He could be fitter for that last start run at 1400m and capable of running a new peak here... or the fact that he peaked on his run and did a similar thing in the Champagne might show where his limits are at the moment? I'm not sure either way, but given he's likely to be a long way back in the run again, I have to rank him behind the two that finished in front of him in the SIres.
6Volcanic Rock14He's on the seven day backup off his 1500m win at this track last start, which returned an 84.3 rating. That's safely short of winning this so he is a longshot, but the way he kept kicking in the straight after appearing vulnerable showed some good stamina traits for a young horse. If he gets rolling in front and can enter the straight at his top, then his ability to keep sticking on could see him give some cheek.
7Ranch Hand14His 83.8 first up and 79.6 when disappointing in the Sires last week don't read as particularly good form, but there are a few indicators in his sectionals and other runs that suggest he's better than that. 3rd up over 1600m from a good draw with J McDonald riding looks a scenario that could see him significantly improve.
4Overpass18His 88 rating win at Gosford two starts ago had a stack of merit, but he was then a little disappointing last start in the Sires, rating just 83.9. I think this horse has the talent to be very competitive, but he's hard to like off that last start, especially when this is his 6th run in his first preparation.
9Overmann34His 83.8 win last start at Rosehill was sound, but a clear level below this, without any obvious signs of the potential to improve.
3Subterranean34He had no luck in the Sires LS when wide and does map much better here, but his prior best of 84.1 is still safely short of winning this. He needs a big new peak.
8Blushing Tycoon41A best of 84 and 83.8 is safely short of winning this. This is her 5th run in her first prep, so it's hard to see where significant improvement might come from?
10Cape Breton41He won in Sydney last week, but the race was particularly weak on the clock, leaving him with an 82.3 rating. I'd be surprised if he could measure up to this race 7 days later.
11Giannis41He looks well suited by the step up from 1400m in the Sires to 1600m in this race, but needs to improve sharply on his 83.3 best.
14Invinsible Tears51Had some excuses in the 1400m Sires last start and her 83.3 prior over 1200m with some potential to improve is not the worst profile in the race. She does need to lift significantly though and the map doesn't look to make it easy.
12Dark Rebel101Looks outclassed
13Three Wise Men101Looks outclassed

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Converge (stake for 1.4% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Tiger Of Malay (stake for 0.5% of your bank)

 3:53 21 June 12 Eagle Farm Race 8 1400m 3YO+ Gp1 HCP

Weather: Sunny 22c
Track Condition: Good 4 | Rail +4m
Track Pattern: EVEN, but 1-2 wide to the turn best


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 105+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
11Vega One5He sets up very well for this race. He was excellent winning the G1 Kingsford Smith last start and with the drop to 53kg, he brings a 106.3 rating to this race, the best last start figure in the field. He did get one of the best rides ever to win, but he has various other runs in his form history between 104 and 107.5, so there was no fluke in that last start and there's every reason to expect he can hold or even improve slightly for what has no doubt been a target race all preparation. The other big thing I see in his favour is the draw / map. He looks to get a very economical run around midfield and assuming even luck, he'll be able to pick his way between runners in the early part of the straight, before emerging in the last 150m to stake his winning claim. That's the ideal type of run for an off-pace horse at this track when the rail is out 4m. It's obviously a competitive race with plenty of potential winners, but he has to be on top for me.
12The Harrovian8He was first-up off a 63 day break into the Doomben 10,000 and his 104.1 rating from that run looks a terrific platform to bring to this race. He has been set to peak for this and does have a 105.8 from last Spring over 1350m. It's more than reasonable to think that with even luck he can at least go close to reaching that level again. He's right among the genuine chances, although looks at his right price in the market at the moment.
18Apache Chase8He looks a great value chance to me. A narrow 1400m win in the Fred Best doesn't standout as strong form, but he ran good overall time with 57kg and dropping to 50.5kg here gives him a 105.6 performance rating that is hard to beat. It's worth pointing out that after settling a good pace early in that race, he went very fast between the 800m and 400m so his effort to still win had plenty of merit. While there are four clear go forward horses in this race that could create some early pressure, virtually every other runner is a mid-filed / get back type. Once positions are found in this race, it wouldn't surprise me if the speed just backed off slightly for 200-300m. If that happens and Apache chase can get a little bit more of a break than he had last start, then he's capable of giving a big kick with no weight on his back and proving very hard to run down.
20Amish Boy10He still needs another scratching to get a run, but if he can squeeze into the field, I expect him to be a genuine winning chance. He was a close up 3rd behind Apache Chase and Ayrton in the Fred Best, but clocked some seriously fast sectionals to get there after still being 11 lengths off the lead from a wide draw at the 600m mark. That type of sprint with his 104.6 rating and a much better draw to settle around midfield presents as an appealing scenario. He's a great value longshot (if he gets a run.)
7Wild Planet12He ran a new peak of 103.8 FUP in the Doomben 10,000 behind Eduardo, hitting the line powerfully. In the past he's been better at 1400m, which gives him good prospects to improve again up to that trip in this race. He no doubt brings competitive credentials and is capable of winning, but a few others rate slightly better on their lead up runs and he has been done no favours by the map. I have to bet around him.
16Subpoenaed12A 104.4 last start in the G1 Sangster at WFA in Adelaide is very competitive form for this race. One notable thing in her profile is that three of her last six runs represent the three best ratings she's run in her career so far and two of those have been in this calendar year. That tells me that she's a mare just who is now fulfilling her potential under Chris Waller and that she may still have new peaks to come. The stable had the option to aim her at the Dane Ripper, but chose this race, so she must be pleasing them. A 104.4 at 1200m last start (clearly her best at that trip) and now stepping to a much more preferred 1400m is a scenario that could see her improve again. The challenge of course is that barrier and the type of trip she gets. That's really the only concern though. Everything else says to me that she fits among the genuine chances in this race and is capable of winning.
2Savatoxl21A 105.8 spike in his Goodwood win is super competitive, but he regressed to 102.2 last start, although with some excuse pulling up slightly lame. It wouldn't be a shock if he won, but I have to prefer others specifically set for this race and coming into it on the up.
3Tofane21Her 106.5 and 105 in the Autumn of 2020 could win, but she doesn’t appear quite the same horse now. She closed off well behind Emerald Kingdom LS, but was entitled do after doing no work early. Her 101.5 from that run is close to 2L short of what's needed here.
10Victorem21He's come back well this prep and brings a 103.4 from his lead up run in the G1 Kingsford Smith. That's competitive, but 102 to 103.5 seems to be his range of top form, so he'll need to find a new peak.
8Niccanova23His 101.5 last start and 103 first up says he's going well this prep and he has no doubt been set for this race. He ran 103 in this last year, but is yet to go any better than that. He'll need at least a +1 length new peak if he's to win.
1Mr Quickie26His 106.5 in the G1 Toorak last Spring could win this, but all of his other form / ratings is a couple of lengths short. He'll also need a stack of luck after settling no better than midfield on the rail.
13Signore Fox26He ran 105.7 in the Kingsford Smithen when just 0.6L behind Vega One and that's a very competitive performance in this race. The big query is that he was 50/1 that day and all of his form prior doesn't get close to winning this.
14Emerald Kingdom26His last start 102.6 is safely short of winning this, but he comes into this 3rd up and does have a one off 106.6 spike rating from March 2020 when he won a race by 4.3 lengths at this track and distance in very fast time. He's a rightful longshot, but wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world if he went close.
4Imaging34Fresh and at 1400m is the scenario he ran 105.1 in the CF Orr during the early Autumn and he has a similar rating over 1600m from last Spring. He's certainly capable on those efforts, but the rest of his form is safely short of winning and he's going to be well back and / or wide and chasing from a fair way out.
6So Si Bon51His typical range is 102-103 with a number of runs below that level. He's a little outlcassed in a race like this.
9I Am Superman51His 102.5 peak is only about 1.5 lengths off what's needed, but there's plenty of horses around that mark or better in this race.
19Outback Barbie67Looks a little outclassed on her peak form and she tends to run her best away from Eagle Farm
21Blazejowski151Looks well and truly outclassed.
5Olmedo201His best is not good enough and he's been terribly inconsistent so far in Australia.
17Master Jamie501Looks totally outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Vega One (stake for 0.8% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Apache Chase (stake for 0.5% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Subpoenaed (stake for 0.3% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Amish Boy (stake for 0.4% of your bank (needs a scratching to gain a start))


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 163.15

Total Units Returned: 163.02

ROI: -0.08%


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