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3:05 17 Apr 21 Randwick Race 7 3200m 3YO+ Gp1 HCP

Weather: 50% chance showers up to 5mm
Track Condition: Good 4 – Soft 5 | Rail +3m
Track Pattern: Poss EVEN – look for off-fence ADV


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 105+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
13Realm Of Flowers4.4She was outstanding when narrowly beaten by Favourite Moon in the Manion Cup last start. Caught wide without cover for most of the trip, she was still surging late and just failed to get there. No doubt that with a more economical trip, she wins the race. Her 104.2 rating had merit in the 106 to 107 range for me, which is extremely hard to beat in this race. Last spring she ran over 3200m (only time at the trip) and made a long sustained run to finish a close second, rating 105.3, a clear career peak. What that told me is that this mare is a genuine stayer and after just 15 career starts, there's every chance that he best is still to come.That last start effort was only 3rd up, off a 28 day break, so getting up to 3200m fourth up in this race looks perfect. It's an ideal scenario which her history says could see her improve further. Everything points to a 105+ performance and potentially 107+. It's a competitive race, but she's the horse to beat!
10Favorite Moon6.5William Haggas trained UK visitor. Ran 104.3 beating the unlucky Realm Of Flowers in his first run off the plane last start. He looks a strong stayer that after 9 starts is potentially still on the up in his career. That gives him good prospects to improve on last start and run the 105+ needed to be a potential winner. He's right among the top chances in a competitive race.
12Shes Ideel6.5She was a well backed longshot in the G1 Tancred at WFA last start and justified that by running a new career peak, beaten 2.3L by Sir Dragonet. She drops 7kg on that run, bringing a 106.1 rating. Anywhere around that level of form is going to be very hard to beat in this race. In the past she has finished off in above average L200m sectionals over 2400m and 2600m, so there's no reason to think she can't get 3200m here. Drawn to get a soft run no more than a few lengths off the lead, she's certainly capable of winning.
11Rondinella7She looks the big value in the race to me. She finished off well when narrowly beaten by Quick Thinker last week in a brutally run 2600m, with 6 lengths to the 3rd horse. With 50kg here, that run sees her bring a 106.5 rating, which is a strong level of form for this race. It was a sudden improvement when most of her form is well below that level, but it certainly wasn't a fluke. Last Spring she ran 105.8 to end her prep and in the autumn she ran a 104.5 in NZ. Going back two years ago she ran a 108 and then 106.2 when fourth in this race, so the 3200m is no concern. On a 7 day back up off such a strong last start rating that is consistent with her past peaks, she has to figure right among the main chances. Double figures odds is an appealing price.
7Miami Bound14Finished of well at the end of the 2400m in the Tancred last start, running 103.5 on Good 4 ground. She has a 107 from last Spring and 105 as a 3YO that say she's capable of improving on that last start as well. Her two runs over 3200m in the Spring were inconclusive, so I can't knock her at the trip.
8Spirit Ridge16His 105.3 in the Tancred last start is up to the 105+ standard for this race, but there has to be a query if he can repear that at 3200m?
15Good Idea18He drop 3kg on his dominant 3.5L 3200m Adelaide Cup win two starts ago and that 106.7 rating deserves plenty of respect. The only other time he ran over 3200m was in the 2020 Adelaide Cup where he ran 2nd with a 104.4 rating. He only rated 100.3 last start, but that was likely a tune up race to get back to this 3200m target. Coming to Sydney and doing the same is a different challenge, but these types of races are very much about who can run the distance and he's one that is well proven.
2Southern France23Well backed $7 in early markets, but he can win without me. He has a 105.6 overseas, but his best Aust form is 103.7 and he ran 100.7 in the Tancred last start, when others finished better. He's fitter for that and maps better, so he's cerainly not hopeless, but with a bit of depth around the 105 winning standard in this race, I can't have him up there.
5Chapada26Ran 100.8 LS in the Tancred, which is below his normal consistent best. In 6 of his last 10 starts he's rated between 104 and 106.4, with an average of 104.7. It's not ideal coming off his LS effort and 3200m may stretch him, but multiple ratings around that 105 standard have to give him some prospects of running well.
1The Chosen One41The 3200m suits, but he failed in the Tancred last start and despite there being some excuses, they don't account for 10 lengths. With 56kg he'll need to be right up to his career best form and then perhaps a touch better to win.
16Selino51A UK import for Waller. His best here so far is 101.3, which is nowhere near good enough. Even allowing for possible improvement up to the longer trip, he still has to rate a longshot.
14Sacramento61Failed last start after prior consistent ratings around the 104.5 level. He needs to rebound and then improve even further on those recent runs.
9Hush Writer101A good track will help, but even on his good form I couldn't forecast him more than 102-103 and then there's the added concern about whether he can be that good at 3200m.
3Sound201Failed in the Tancred LS and his best form is in the 102-104 range, which isn't good enough. Needs a strong new career peak.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

It’s a very competitive race, but a few appeal as value.

BACK (WIN) — Realm of Flowers (stake for 0.8% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Rondinella (stake for 0.5% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — She’s Ideel (stake for 0.5% of your bank)

3:50 17 Apr21 Randwick Race 8 2000m 3YO+ Gp1 WFA

Weather: 50% chance showers up to 5mm
Track Condition: Good 4 – Soft 5 | Rail +3m
Track Pattern: Poss EVEN – look for off-fence ADV


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 104+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
7Verry Elleegant2.8She's come back as well as ever this prep, building her ratings nicely with a 100.1, 102.5 and then 105.3 last start when winning the G1 Ranvet on Soft 7 ground. She's a top class mare in every sense of the word and is naturally the one to beat here, especially with a query over Addeybb on dry ground. However, it is worth noting that Verry Elleegant has so far also produced her best on Soft tracks. Her 5 best career ratings in the 104.5 to 107 range (avg 105.5) have all come on Soft to Heavy. He best on Good is 104 in the Oaks two years ago, following by a 103.4 over 1600m. Those ratings say she doesn't need it soft to run well and it certainly doesn't mean that she can't run a new peak on Good ground in this race. However, it does mean I can't automatically assume she's going to reproduct a 105+ performance. On balance she is rightfully a clear cut favourite for this race, but $2.40 in the market is too short to provide any betting value.
1Addeybb4He ran 103.8 when second to Verry Elleegant last start, which was just off the 105 he ran in the same race last year. Back in 2020 he then improved to a 108 when a dominant winner of this race and repeated that form when he went back to the UK. There a good chance he's made improvement for this race, but the big query is that he's very much a soft track horse. In 21 career starts he's only raced on Good ground 3 times with a peak of 102 (vs 108-109 on wet). The trainer William Haggas has regularly pointed out that he's not the same horse on dry ground and that if it wasn't for travelling so far away, he perhaps wouldn't run in this race. Those comments might be a little smoke and mirrors to reduce expectations, but when supported by the horses record it deserves attention. The one big thing in his favour could be leading in what looks a very tactical race and If the showers came making the track a Soft 5 or worse, that would be a blessing for him. As it stands though, the track is likely going to be a Good 4. With that query and the fact he only ran 103.8 last start on Soft ground, I have to be a little negative on him here.
2Sir Dragonet5Ran 102 when beaten by VE and Addeybb in the Ranvet two starts ago, but was then impressive running 103.5 to win the Tancred last start. Was it the 2400m that helped him there? Or was / is he still on the up this preparation and that run was a natural improvement? If it was the latter he is a good chance of holding that level of form or even improving again, especially given he ran 106 in the Cox Plate last Spring. He showed last start that he doesn't need it wet and even allowing for some uncertainty about dropping back to 2000m, he has to be given a decent chance in this race.
3Mugatoo6He ran 104.1 to win the All Start Mile two runs ago and then 103 last week in the Doncaster. They're both peak runs for him, so although beaten in the Doncaster, I can't consider it a disappointing performance. He's only fourth up here, getting to 2000m and it's worth pointing out that his peak ratings of 102 prior to this prep all came over 2040m to 2400m. Anything around 104 is going to be extremely competitive and he looks more than capable of running to that level.
4Think It Over61Missed the Doncaster last week due to a travel incident. He does come in career peak form with a 101.8, but he'll need to be better again to win this. That's hard to see happening given he was set to run over 1600m last week and now turns up in a 2000m race.
6Dalasan61Ran a great race in the Doncaster last week with 53kg, but this is WFA and an entirely different challenge. His 101.5 is safely short of the standard.
8MoUnga67Failed in the Doncaster last week and only has a peak of 99. It's very rare for a horse with his profile to rebound AND run a 5+ points new peak, which he needs to get into the finish of this race.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Poor

I think Sir Dragonet and Mugatoo are technically over the odds, but with plenty of queries in the race it’s far from a high confidence assessment.

BACK (WIN) — Sir Dragonet (stake for 0.3% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Sky Lab (stake for 0.3% of your bank)


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 146.65

Total Units Returned: 135.77

ROI: -7.42%


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