TRB Race Assessment: Free Horse Racing Tips

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4:50 19 Sep20 Caulfield Race 8 1400m 3YO+ Gp1 HCP

Weather — Late rain – N-NE winds 25c

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail +3m

Track Pattern — History mixed – Work on even

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 101+ is usually required to win this race.

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

1Behemoth 4.4It's normally very tough for a top weight with 60kg in a G1 Hcp to figure as a serious chance unless they're truly elite, but this is a weak edition of the race. That gives Behemoth strong claims to back up his G1 WFA Memsie win with another G1 win here. He ran 101.7 in the Memsie, which is the best recent figure coming into this race. He may not get the dream run he had that day, but the map still looks okay for him. It's impossible to knock him here. He's the horse to beat, but there's no edge in the market.
16Banquo 6He looks the best value in the race to me. In 11 starts so far he's built a very consistent rating profile with some signs he may not be finished improving. He ran figures of 97-99 last Spring, before returning in the Autumn with peaks of 100.4 and 99.3. In two runs this Spring he's gone ahead slightly again, running 99.3 first up and 101 second up over 1200m at Flemington. In previous preps he was running peaks over 1400m-1600m, so this distance is no concern and he maps well here. He only needs to run up to his last sart to be somewhere around the finish of this race, but also brings a pattern and profile that suggests he mights still have new peaks to come. Any type of improvement in this race will make him hard to beat. A good value gamble in a very tough race.
11Age Of Chivalry 9A very consistent performer, running 100.2 first up and 99.2 second up, both over 1200m. He has peaks of 102 and 101.6 in his history and both came at 1400m. If he can get across and find a good run in transit, he's certainly capable of winning or at least being in the finish.
15Tagaloa 10Only ran 94.8 first-up, but I expect he can be a big improver here, especially up to 1400m and most likely ridden more conservatively. It's a tough ask with 54kg as an early 3YO, but I thought as a 2YO he'd be better at this trip, so this is our chance to see if he can deliver.
3Begood Toya Mother 17He's not the same horse we saw last Spring, where he ran peaks of 102.3 x 2 and 101.8, which would put him in the finish of this race. He ran 97.8 last start which isn't hopeless, but he definitely needs to improve. We do know the potential is there though and he looks to lead, so I'm giving him some respect.
4Cascadian 19Has run 98.6 and 98.3 in his last two - forever running on at the finish. They're never my type of horses, especially when they need to improve to reach a level that can win.
5Superstorm 19An even return first up, rating 96. Last prep he ran 101 and 102.5 over 1600m and I think he wants that trip or further to show his best. I expect him to improve for this, but happy to risk him running 101+ over 1400m.
6Dollar For Dollar 19Perhaps not quite good enough, but a last start 99.5 over 1200m at Flemington and past peaks at the 101 level, two of them at 1400m and 1500m suggests he's not the worst, especially off a good map
13Pretty Brazen 19A good winner last week over 1400m at Flemington with a 99 rating, which was a slight new peak. She need to go at least a length better again this week to get in the finish.
18I Am Superman (Em2) 26A great return firstup, winning with a 100.5 new peak. The problem he that he faces a much tougher draw / map here so the chance of regressing off that figure is high.
10Achernar Star 41He has plenty of past ratings in the 101-102 range that say he can be very competitive here. The problem is that he was poor first up at MV, running just 88.6
8Mandela Effect 51His best is in the 97-98.5 range which isn't good enough and he only ran 92.8 first-up
9Reykjavik 5197-98 is about his mark, with some rare peaks of 100-101, but they've come at 1600m when well suited.
7Madam Rouge 67Can improve off her 92 first-up, but happy to risk given she'll get back and needs to improve so much.
2Streets Of Avalon 81I don't like him at all here. He ran 99 at MV last start over 1600m but that was off a soft run from an inside draw. This map is much tougher. He last five ratings when draw wide have been between 89 and 95, which is nowhere near good enough.
12Debt Agent 81Lacks early speed and is first-up off a long break.
20Runson (Em4) 81He has some terrific figures in this history, but they're in the 1000-1200m range. I can't see him running anywhere near those levels over 1400m, especially from a tough draw (if he gets a run.)
17Harlech (Em1) 151NZ form has him around the 94.5 level with a one off peak of 98.7. Doesn't look good enough, especially first-up.
19Gold Fields (Em3) 151His very best is not hopeless here, but he didn't do enough first-up

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Poor

A very competitive race with a number of potential winners

BACK (WIN) — Banquo (stake 0.5% of your bank)

3:15 19 Sep 20 Randwick Race 6 1600m 3YO+ Gp1 WFA

Weather — Partly cloudy 22c

Track Condition — Good 3-4 — Rail True

Track Pattern — EVEN — possible off-fence if showers

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 101.5+ is usually required to win this race.

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

6Verry Elleegant 2.1Returned with an outstanding 102 rating win in the Winx stakes first-up, that had a stack of extra merit after travelling wide without cover for the entire race, with a very fast pace up front. She also started to make her run forward from the 800m mark without cover, which is never easy to do. She brings the best run / rating in the lead up and started much shorter than all of those she meets again. She does likes the sting out of the ground, but unlike some of the others she met in the Winx Stakes, Verry Elleegant does have some strong ratings on Good ground. Second up in the Autumn she was second to Te Akau Shark in the G1 WFA Chipping Norton at this T&D with a 103.4 and ran a 104 when she won the Oaks as a 3YO on Good ground. With the merit in that first up run and that second up 103.4 last prep, it looks more than reasonable to forecast her somewhere in the 103-105 range for this race. She ticks all of the boxes to be a rightful dominant favourite.
2Dreamforce 6Did some work early to lead in the Tramway, ran along at a genuine speed and still showed a a slight kick in the straight, which helped him set up a winning break that he was able to hold onto over the final stages. That win returned a 100 rating, but had some extra merit and he does has five ratings in the 101.5 to 102.7 range over the past 18 months, two of them at a mile. His absolute best is 103.4, which came over 1400m. WIth a soft lead here on his own terms, it's more than reasonable to think he can repeat his last start 100 rating, with a decent chance of improving into his 101.5 to 102.5 best rating range. If he does that he's going to be hard to beat.
1Avilius 8.5Ran excellent sectionals first-up from a mile back in the Chelmsford, which showed he's come back well. The smaller field is an assistance here, but the lack of pace isn't. He ran a 98 first-up and does have a pattern of improving 2up up, the query is whether he can improve enough to run 101.5+ that could win this? His two best last prep were 100.9 and 100.5 and as a 7YO he's not getting any younger. He'll also very likely be giving others with a better last start rating a head start in the run, which is always a negative for me, especially in a race that lacks early pressure. I expect he can run a competitive race and it wouldn't surprise me if he won, but I have to prefer others.
3Kolding 10His close 2nd to Dreamforce in the Tramway returned a 99.6 rating, which was better than any of his five runs in the Autumn. That's a sign that he might have returned in better shape and can perhaps get back to his form of last spring, where he ran 101.5 to win the Epsom and then 103 to win the Golden Eagle. Tactics will be interesting. He was ridden with more purpose to settle closer last start and ended up 2 to 2.5L back from the lead. He raced in similar positions last Spring when he ran those two peak ratings and although drawn in barrier 7, this map looks to give him an opportunity to be a little poisitive early and settle handy. I thought in the Tramway he was a little one-paced in the ealry part of the straight and really only made an impression over the final 60m when the race was over, but counteracting that is the step up from 1400m to 1600m, which suits. I certainly respect his winning chance here.
4Imaging 14Ran a big new peak 101 in the Winx Stakes behind Verry Elleegant. He didn't have any luck at all in the early part of the straight finding clear running, but did save plenty of ground staying close to the inside compared to other runners in the race. That figure is competitive here and he will find a steadier run 1600m where he can settle closer without being run off his legs early a much better scenario. I do have to consider though that he was 30/1 that day and it was a sudden spike rating. It wouldn't surprise me if he was in the finish, but I have to prefer those with a better history of ratings at the 100+ level.
5Star Of The Seas 14He resumed first-up with a big new 101.8 peak in the Winx Stakes, hitting the front after getting a nice trail into the race behind Verry Elleegant, before the mare fought back to beat him on the line. It's a very encouraging return, which obviously says he has the talent to fight out the finish of this race. The query that I have to make some allowance for is that the Winx Stakes was on Soft 6 ground and his four best career ratings are on Soft 6 to Heavy 8. He was also 30/1 in that race. His best on dry ground is 97.8 and if the showers don't arrive at Randwick, this track will end up on the firm side.
7Colette 61Ran 96 in the Tramway behind Dreamforce, which was a sound return for a staying Mare. She'll be better suited over 1600m but the lack of pace doesn't look in her favour. She's talented, but looking for further and a genuine outsider.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Good

BACK (WIN) — Verry Elleegant (stake 1.8% of your bank)

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 84.45

Total Units Returned: 83.56

ROI: -1.05%

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