TRB Race Assessment: Free Horse Racing Tips

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Geelong Cup

Geelong | Race 7 | 4.00pm
2400m G3 Hcp

Weather: Sunny 22c
Track Condition: Good 4 | True entire circuit
Track Pattern: History – within 2L a betting ADV – back to 4L OK – further than 4L a big betting DISADV

Speed & Assessed Price Summary

Winning Standard

A rating standard of 99.5+

Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

NumberHorsesPriceComment
8Tralee Rose1.9She's the clear standout in this race. She's been progressing nicely this campaign, running 96.9, 98 and 99.6 in three runs so far. That's a strong rating platform leading into to this race and perhaps even more appealing is that she ran two big peaks of 104.7 (2800m) and 104.2 (2600m) deeper into last prep, really springboarding off an initial run over 2530m at Flemington. She has a similar set up this prep with her first lead-up run over the longer trip likely to bring her on nicely, which gives her terrific prospects to improve on that 99.6, at least to something like 101, 102 or even better. A favourable map only strengthens her overall profile.
2Defibrillate11He's racing well enough (unsuited LS) and does have peaks of 100.4 and 100.3. However his consistent get back style is proving costly now that he's racing in slightly better grade than we saw him last preparation. If Knights Order really ramps up the tempo with the blinkers back on, then he could find himself giving away a big start. It wouldn't surprise me if he won and on balance I think he's the second best chance in this race, but he's not the style of horse I'm ever looking to find.
14Hasta La War12He's racing as well as he ever has, coming off a new peak 99.5 last start behind Delphi in the Herbert Power and a 97 rating prior to that. He's recpatured form of the Spring in 2019 when he was running to those levels and winning easily in Adelaide. That last start 99.5 stacks right up and deserves respect, but the potential for a well above average pace here is a lot different to what he encountered last start and that's something he hasn't been exposed to before. His four best career ratings in the 97 to 99.5 range have all come in races run at well below average speed with a sprint home. Maybe he'll relish a stronger speed, but many horses crack under the extra pressure, especially if not established in these better class races. That query with nothing else particularly positive in his profile means I have to risk him.
6Le Don De Vie13He ran 103.4 when a narrow second in a strong edition of this race last year (first run in Aust) and then 104 when he won the Warrnambool Cup in May, so there's no doubt he has the talent. A 98.3 first-up over 2040m at MV was promising for this prep, but he then failed in the G1 Metropolitan, allbeit after having a tough run. Last prep he ran 98.7 first-up, then failed second up, before rebounding with that big 104 to easily win the Warrnambool Cup. With the prospect of getting a perfect run handy to the speed in this race, I'm not ruling out the idea that he could repeat that pattern. He's the best double figure odds chance in this race.
4Knights Order15Good first-up behind Nonconformist give he was caught wide and then pushed up outside a fast pace (95.9 rating), but he was then gone on the turn last start at Flemington. Blinkers back on here is an interesting gear change given he's such a free running on-pacer that consistently sets a strong speed. I can't imagine that's going to see him go any slower, so he could really run them along here and turn it into a serious staying test. A 103 rating in a big 4.8L win over 3200m at Eagle Farm (with blinkers off) during the winter deserves respect, but his other 18 career runs are short of what will be needed to win this.
1Mirage Dancer26Plain LS after every chance handy to a moderate pace. Prior 98.3 behind Nonconformist is not hopless and he did run 101.4 to win the G1 Metropolitan last preparation. That prevents him getting too far out in my market, but he has to rate a longshot.
12Bartholomeu Dias26His rating peak of 98.3 is short of the standard in this and he only rated 96.3 last start when every chance in the Benalla Cup. However, I suspect he's still building to peak fitness and is likely to find a genuine to solidly run 2400m to his liking here. He's a potential improver, but still has to rate down the list of chances.
5Amade41Solid first-up, but then disappointing last start in the Bart Cummings at Flemington without an obvious excuse. Impossible to find him off that.
7Dr Drill51Peaks in the 99 to 100.5 range are very competitive, but I have a massive query if he can run to that level in a strongly run 2400m staying test.
10Rostropovich51Good two starts ago, but then failed horribly behind Delphi in the Herbert Power LS without an obvious excuse. That's the nature of his form though. He's also likely to get a mile back from that barrier.
13Long Arm67Okay first-up with a 94 rating, but then poor last start in the Bart Cummings, like a few others were. The prospect of a similar strong pace over 2400m makes it impossible to like him.
3Johnny Get Angry151He's weighted like a 3YO G1 Derby winner, but the problem is that performance last Spring was nowhere near Group 1 level. He profiles like a benchmark grade horse that is terribly outclassed in stakes races against older horses.
11Weekender201He has good overseas ratings, but is an 8YO now and his first run in Aust off a 568 day break was terrible.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Good

BACK (WIN) — Tralee Rose for 2 units

BACK (WIN) — Le Don De Vie for 0.3 units

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 183.35

Total Units Returned: 177.73

ROI: -3.06%

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