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5:15 17 Oct 20 Caulfield Race 9 2400m 3YO+ Gp1 HCP

Weather — 90% chance showers: 15-25mm

Track Condition — Soft 7 – Heavy 8 | Rail True

Track Pattern — Off-fence best as meeting goes on


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 106+ is usually required to win this race.


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

TabHorsesPriceComment
7Verry Elleegant5.5She ran 103.6 to win the G1 Turnbull over 2000m on Good ground last start, which is over a length off the 106+ standard for this, but the big key is that she gets to 2400m and almost certainly a wet track, which is ideal for her. Her two runs at 2400m in the past 18 months have rated 108.6 and 105.6. Her last 6 runs on soft ground or worse have rated 105.4, 105.6, 106.3, 103.6, 108.6 and 106.1. We know she's been set for a tilt at the Caulfield & Melbourne Cups so Chris Waller has likely timed her to start peaking now, so it's reasonable to forecast that she's going to improve to something like those best figures. WIth a standout peak of 108.6 the last time she raced over 2400m on wet (in the Autumn) I have to consider her the one to beat.
9Finche7He ran 102.9 in the G1 Turnbul last start, but his run at plenty more merit than that. From barrier 15 he was wide without cover, back in the field, racing into the stiff head wind at Flemington that day and still had the audacity to run on in the straight and was only just beaten in a very tight finish with Verry Elleegant and others. He was the one that gave Verry Elleegant cover and the perfect trail into the race, so there's no doubt in my mind that his run was superior. I have to give that run merit of at least 105-106 and that's consistent with his form last Spring where he ran ratings of 105.1 (second up) 105.4, 105 when beaten just 1.6L in this race last year after racing wide and then 106.4 when beaten just 1.4L in the Melbourne Cup. The step up to 2400m is in his favour, a wet track is no concern (his two best are 106.4 and 106.1 on soft in the last two Melbourne Cup) and the way the map looks, I'm hopefully he can finally get a good run in transit. If he does that then I expect him to run a terrific race and be right in the finish as a potential winner. He's the best betting value in the race.
1Anthony Van Dyck8.5He brings impressive form lines here from Europe, defeating Stradivarius over 2400m at WFA last start (106.4 rating) and three starts ago he was 2.5L second (106.5 rating) at level weights behind Ghaiyyath, regarded by many as the best horse in the world. That last run at Longchamp in September was in a ridiculously slowly run race that was nothing more than a sprint home, but his second to Ghaiyyath was in fast time and I especially liked the way he sustained a strong run from a long way out, still wanting to find the line late. Those two 106.5 ratings are both career peaks, bettering his 105.4 Epsom Derby win in June 2019 and have come in his last three starts, suggesting that he's an improving horse. He does take some time to wind up and his biggest asset is that he has the engine to sustain his speed, so I don't mind that he's drawn very wide. Wherever Hugh Bowman decides to settle him, he's likely to be able to get out in the clear at the right time and build up his speed, rather than being cluttered up among horses and needing to sprint off the bend. Well rated Internationals have a good record in this race, even at the top of the weights - Dunaden won with 58kg, Admire Rakti won with 58kg and Best Solution won with 57.5kg, all inside the past 10 years. The big query for me is a genuine wet track. His form stats do show two wins on soft ground, but for me, his five best career ratings in Europe have come on good to firm ground. His last two runs on softer ground have been ordinary (perhaps coincidental) and his wins on soft have been in much lower grade races with ratings that can’t win this. That query takes away potential betting appeal, but his overall talent must still see him rated among the top chances.
11Master Of Wine11Last October he ran 105.9 bolting in over 2400m at Randwick (on dry ground) and then returned in the Autumn with ratings of 106.4 at 1400m, then 108.4 and 105.2 over 2000m on wet. There's no doubt on that form he's capable of winning this race. He ran 103.3 second-up this prep and then 104.4 last start in the Turnbull to suggest he's building his form, but I would have liked to see a little stronger through the line and past the post, so I’m not totally convinced that he’s going as well as we saw in the Autumn. Is the wet track a big positive for him? The market is likely to see it that way. There’s no doubt he’s very effective on wet, but he did run 105.9 on dry last Spring, which was a standout new peak at the time, so it’s not clear cut that he’s genuinely better on wet. We didn’t see him on dry ground in the Autumn to compare. They’re only very minor queries that I have and he can definitely win, but at single figure odds he’s certainly not being underestimated by the market.
17Toffee Tongue11She was the surprise in the Turnbull, finishing a very narrow second to Verry Elleegant at $67. That SP is normally a big drag next start, but she is a lightly raced staying mare and that run may well be a genuine indicator that she has improved. A perfect run in transit certainly helped, but her 104.8 rating is competitive here and she did reach her peak as a 3YO when she got to 2400m in the ATC Oaks, running a 102. That was also on Heavy ground, so the prospect of those two factors being even more suitable than the Turnbull is a scenario that could see her improve again put herself in the mix as a potential winner.
4Buckhurst13International with a number of peak ratings in the 105 to 106.2 range, but his last two have only been in the 98-99 range. I'm not reading too much into that though, the Lloyd Williams camp is astute and would have had this trip planned for a number of months, mindful of managing the handicap weight he'd get for both this race and the Melbourne Cup. He'll turn up here ready to run well. The big thing in his favour is the map, he'll race handy in a race that doesn't look like it will be run too quickly, especially in the first 1000m. He deserves plenty of respect as a potential winner.
13Warning18He looks to be building ideally for this race and the Melbourne Cup. He ran 100.4 over an unsuitable 1600m first-up and then 104.2 in the G1 Turnbull when running on very strongly late, with clear signs that he's looking for further. A step up to 2400m certainly gives him prospects to hit the 106 he ran winning the Derby as a 3YO, or even better. That was on Soft 7 ground, so a deteriorating track may actually be in his favour. The query is if he can do that from a draw that’s likely to see him have a tougher run than the Turnbull. On talent and the conditions of this race, he profiles as a good longshot that could figure somewhere in the finish.
5Mirage Dancer19He ran 104.2 to win the G1 Metropolitan last start and was hardly well suited by a below average speed. He was especially strong over the final stages and through the line, so he potentially had a bit more to offer in that race. He ran 106.2 in this race last year in his first run from overseas, so the talent is definitely there to run a very competitive race. The query is genuine wet ground. He handles it okay, but his very best ratings, including his run in this race last year are definitely on top of the ground.
10Prince Of Arran23He's a hard horse to assess. His form overseas since last Spring has been fair at best, but he's done that before and then grown a leg when he races in Australia. His ratings here in the past two years are right up to winning this race. Last year he can off mixed form overseas and then ran 105.8 and 106.1 in his first two runs here, both over 2400m, before running 108 when just nosed out in the Melbourne Cup. WIth that history it wouldn't surprise me at all if he won the race, but it's taking a big leap of faith to view him as a betting prospect.
8Dashing Willoughby26He brings ratings of 103.6 (3219m), 106.6 (3265m) and 104.6 (2414m) in his last three, so with 54.5kg he certainly has the talent to measure up. The query I have is whether he'll want further than the 2400m to run 106+ and by this stage of the day, barrier 1 is likely to be a disadvantage.
14Dalasan26Racing very well this prep and did run 105.4 in the G1 Turnbull last start. He did have an ideal run in that race though and will have to do a bit more here, plus cope with a step up to 2400m. The distance certainly isnt' beyond him, but it is a big query if he can run it will enough to elevate again to a 106+
18Chapada26With 50.5kg here his 2400m win last Saturday at this track returned a 104.8 and he has been as high as 105.3 before. He's in the type of form that can see him competitive so he's certainly no the worst, but I'm not sure if he can push to that next level that will be required to win.
22Le Don De Vie31Emergency - needs three more scratchings to gain a run. I think he's an improving stayer and with a big weight drop on recent runs he brings very competitive ratings from his last two runs overseas in the 105-106 range. The form / ratings around him has been solid, the query is that they've been in small fields run at moderate speed where he's raced close to the lead. A big field, wider draw and likely more genuine tempo present a different challenge. Still, if he gained a start, I wouldn't be surprised if he ran much better than his SP suggests.
2Avilius61A wet track will help him, but he's yet to run better than a 102.5 rating in the past 12 months. When he got to 2400m on wet ground in the Autumn, he still only ran a 102 rating. He may improve, but there's too much depth among others with superior recent form at the weights to consider him a contender.
21Oceanex67Emergency - needs two more scratchings to gain a run. With 51.5kg here, her best last prep was 104.9 and 104.4 in the 2500-2800m range. Her ratings up to 2000m this prep are around the 99 level, which is similar to last prep before she improved notably up in distance to the longer trip. I don't think she can win, but if she gains a start it wouldn't surprise me if she finished in the front half of the field.
15True Self71With just 52kg here, her two runs in Australia last Spring show 106.5 and 107.5 raings that could win this race. However in the 12 months since then she's not produced better than a 94.
3Vow And Declare81Likely to improve up to 2400m, but with 57kg he only brings ratings in the 99.5 to 101.5 range in 2020. I can't see him running 106+ here.
12The Chosen One126He has the odd rating in his history that is competitive, but most of his performances, including his last two are not competitive in a race like this.
20San Huberto126Emergency - needs one more scratching to gain a run. He failed last start at Deauville, but prior to that ran 104.5 at two prior over 2800-3000m. He needs to improve on that, which seems unlikely at 2400m.
6Mustajeer201Hasn't shown enough in three runs this preparation to think he could measure up to this.
19Raheen House201Has done nothing in two runs this prep and would need a clear new career peak. Looks outlcassed

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Finche (stake 0.5% of your bank)

5:50 17 Oct 20 Caulfield Race 10 1400m 4YO+ Mares Gp2 SWP

Weather — 90% chance showers: 15-25mm

Track Condition — Soft 7 – Heavy 8 | Rail True

Track Pattern — Off-fence best as meeting goes on


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 97.5+ is usually required to win this race.


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

TabHorsesPriceComment
3Perfect Jewel3.5She was totally unsuited betting a long way back in a slow run race won by Sierra Sue last start, but still ran home with high ranking sectionals for the meeting to suggests she's going well. Prior to that she ran 99.2 over 1600m on Soft 5 at MV and had an earlier 99.5 over 1200m when first-up this prep. Thats strong form for this race and she loves it wet - her last five ratings on Soft ground read 99.2, 97.3, 100, 97 and 97.8. The only time she's raced on heavy ground was as a 2YO on debut where she naturally rated lower, but was a dominant 2.3L winner at Belmont. That's a very strong profile in a race where anything 97.5+ can win.
4Felicia3.8She's flying this preparation and has run three new peaks - a 96.9 first-up at MV, a 100.3 two starts ago and 98.2 last start, both over 1200m at Caulfield. The step to 1400m is the query, but I suspect her ability to handle that will come down to how easy of a time she gets on the lead. I'm forecasting that The Closer will press forward from wide to keep some tempo in the race, but that's no certainty. If Craig Williams can control this race and still be rolling along at a below average speed between the 800-600, like he did two starts ago (rating 100.3), then there's no doubt in my mind that she can sprint sharply over the final 600m, run out the 1400m and win. If there's a little bit of pressure before that then she may be vulnerable over the final 100m. The quality of her form, the seven day back-up and fact that she'll lead means she must rate a leading chance.
1Pretty Brazen8She's racing in great form this preparation and had no luck last start in the straight, so that run is a total forgive. Prior to that she ran 96.8 and 96.2 both over 1400m. That's her best so far, which is very competitive, but unlikely to be quite good enough to win. She needs to stretch to a new peak, which is not impossible, but $4.60 in the market seems short.
6She Shao Fly8She ran a new career peak when 2nd to Sierra Sue last start with a 97 rating. That's very competitive, but she is deep into her prep and will likely need to rate a touch higher again to win.
2Madam Rouge12Her form has been mixed this preparation. She had excuses first-up, ran a good 97.2 in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke second up, but then regressed last start to 93.8 when weak over the final 100m after having every chance behind Sierra Sue. At her best she's a 98-99 mare that can win this race, but I have a big query if she can do that on wet ground. Her 10 best career ratings are all on dry and her best on wet is 95.4, which is not good enough to win this race. Combined that with her plain last start run and I can't see why she should be $5.00 in the market.
9Rich Hips12Up in grade here, but did run 97.2 to win at this track and distance on Soft 7 last start, which is very competitive. Her next best of 96.9 came on a Heavy track first-up, so it's clear that she loves it wet. Many other runs that aren't competitive here drag her back a little, but she certainly has the talent to run a very good race at odds.
5Into The Abyss41Her best form in the last 12 months sits in the 93.5 to 95 range. That's not going to be good enough here.
8The Closer41She's had no luck in three runs this prep so far, but is generally inconsistent. Her best in the last two years in the 94-96 range. That's not good enough.
7Benitoite101Has done nothing this prep and needs to find a new career peak to win this.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

If you want to speculate on something:

BACK (WIN) — Perfect Jewel (stake 1.1% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Felicia (stake 0.4% of your bank)

2:00 17 Oct 20 Caulfield Race 4 2000m 3YO Gp3 SW

Weather — 90% chance showers: 15-25mm

Track Condition — Soft 7 – Heavy 8 | Rail True

Track Pattern — Off-fence best as meeting goes on


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 87+ is usually required to win this race.


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
5Cetshwayo4.4He's a lightly raced improver, who ran 87.7 winning over 1800m at Flemington last start in the Victoria Derby trial. I like how he chased when clear and was strong late, both very positive signs for a horse that was having just his second start. He has the potential for natural improvement off that run, is bred to handle wet, looks suited up to 2000m and is drawn much better here to settle closer, which is always a key positive in my book. He looks the one to beat.
10Let's Karaka Deel6He's tough to assess here because he started $5.00 second favourite in the race won by Cetshwayo, but never got a crack at them in the straight and went to the line untested. Prior to that he won his maiden at Swanhill with an 83.1 rating and signs that he could improve off that. At $3.80 the market is pricing him like he virtually won that last start race, which is certainly no guarantee. His SP out of that run suggests he must be among the leading chances and there's no doubt he can win, but there's nothing about him that the market is underestimating to create betting appeal.
11Tour Of Duty7He started long odds in the Cetshwayo race last start but was very good coming from well back, matching strides with the winner, just shaded in the final stages to finish a close second. The blinkers on for the first time and a better draw that will see him closer sets him up to run very well again. He's a genuine chance at good odds.
9Hit The Shot7.5He didn't have much luck in the straight behind Cetshwayo last start and hit the line strongly late when clear, so should have finished closer. His 86 rating with some extra merit added is very competitive here and the step to 2000m suits. He's among the chances.
2Albarado8.5Ran 86.6 behind Khoekhoe over 1800m at Flemington, which is very competitive and he did cover extra ground in the run. What I didn't particularly like is that he came from behind the winner and went past him in the straight, but then peaked late and wasn't particularly strong over the final stages. He's a competitive chance, but it's not the ideal type of profile I look for when a horse is going to 2000m.
3The Pres21Didn't have much luck behind Khoekhoe at Flemington last start so his 84.6 had extra merit. That deserves some respect in this market, however he was massive odds ($151) and he's well exposed this preparation. His overall form profile suggests it's a stretch to think he can run 87+ in this.
6Trodaire26He ran 82.2 in a very slowly run 1600m at Moonee Valley last start and while a more genuine 2000m will be to his liking, it's a stretch to think he will improve enough to run 87+
8Redwood Shadow26$8 in the market seems way too short to me. He won his Maiden at Echucha nicely last start, but only rated 81.3 and I felt he was a little one paced, which I never like to see in a horse when they're stepping up in grade. He needs to find 3+ lengths to get in the finish of this race and will likely give away a big start from a wide draw. The flip side to that is expected improvement at the 2000m trip, but I doubt if thats enough to create the level of improvement he needs to make, especially from back in the field. Backmarkers that need a big new peak to win are historically significant losers from a betting perspective, so I'll always take them on.
13Token Spirit26He ran 84.8 behind Cetshwayo last start and will settle much closer here, but was weaker than the others at the end of the 1800m. He's far from the worst, but has to rate as a longshot.
1Celestial Sol41This is his seventh run this prep and so far he's only rating in the 82-84 range. It's hard to make a case that he can suddenly improve to 87+
12Mr Roger67Having his fourth run in his first prep with a peak so far of 82.3. He doesn't look good enough.
7El Santo81Having his sixth run in this first prep and has a peak so far of 82.5. He looks outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Cetshwayo (stake 0.9% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Tour Of Duty (stake 0.4% of your bank)


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 100.95

Total Units Returned: 99.66

ROI: -1.28%


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