TRB Race Assessment: Free Horse Racing Tips

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3:05 14 Nov20 Sandown Hillside Race 6 1600m 3YO Gp2 SW

Weather — Partly cloudy 19c

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail true

Track Pattern — Expect EVEN (per this meet 2019)


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 93+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
1Aysar1.6He's impossible not to have as the dominant favourite here. He may have been beaten LS behind Cross Haven, but he showed a genuine turn of foot and sprinted some quality sectionals off the soft early pace, indicating far more ability than any of these have shown in their career so far. His 96 rating was a solid supporting figure to his 97 prior in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and sits 3 lengths clear of the best we've seen from the others. If he holds something close to that level of performance then he almost certainly win this. There is of course some risk that he fails or something else really jumps out of the ground, which is the same in any race, but even allowing for that, he still profiles as a clear odds-on chance. My $1.60 price suggests he wins a race in this scenario 62.5% of the time and is beaten 37.5% of the time. It's far from a certainty, but when it's expressed in those terms, it's hard to make a case to say he should be any longer.
2Captain Canuck18Ran 88.2 winning his maiden at MV last start, leading at a soft speed, ramping up the speed from the 800m and sustaining a decent run home. I'm not sure the win was as impressive as it visually appeared though. A bit of softness in his last 200m after getting such an easy time to the 800m may be highlighting some limitations to his level. That rating is very competitive with the others away from Aysar, but given he's already had four runs this prep, it's hard to think he could suddenly improve again.
3Horrifying10Ran 91 in the Carbine Club last start, which measures up well against the others behind Aysar here. However he was 50/1 in that race and was only 0.5L off Aysar at the 400m, ending up 3L behind him at the finish. His issue in that race was a lack of acceleration. He was outsprinted in the early part of the straight and then actually stuck on OK late. If he gets more pressure in the middle stages here then that would likely help him narrow that margin.
4Allibor26He's quite one paced and was strong at the end of 1400m last Saturday, suggesting a step to 1600m is in his favour. However he needs to make significant improvement from his 83.8 last start to be competitive.
5Furioso201Won a very weak Maiden at Cranbourne last start and does have some upside after only two starts, but the leap to measure up here looks far too great.
6Raphael201Had every chance racing outside Captain Cannuck last start and was weak late. He's totally outclassed.
7Talamo67He went way too fast on the lead last start over 1800m at Morphettville (the race won by Aintnodeeldun) and prior to that didn't have the clearest path. He's certainly better than those two runs suggest, but his best in Australia so far (ex NZ) is only 84.5
8Sweet Reply7Last start in the Fillies Listed race on Cup day was a total forgive, she arguably should have won. Prior to that she ran 89.7 over 1400m at the Kensington track when beaten 0.3L and should have won there as well after being held up in the straight. Off that 89.7 base with some subjective allowance for that interference, she measures up very well against the others behind Aysar. This is her first time to 1600m as well, which also provides some element of new peak potential. She seems the one most likely to mount a challenge to the favourite.
9Valanetti101She's improved at both runs this preparation and looks suited up to 1600m. However her 81 rating base is a long way below being competitive in this race.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

BACK (WIN) — Aysar (stake 2% of your bank)

4:25 14 Nov 20 Sandown Hillside Race 8 2400m Gp2 WFA

Weather — Partly cloudy 19c

Track Condition — Good 4 | Rail true

Track Pattern — Expect EVEN (per this meet 2019)


Speed & Assessed Price Summary


Winning Standard

A rating standard of 99.5+


Assessed Prices and Comments

In our assessed price order.

#HorsesPriceComment
1Avilius3.5Comes off a Melbourne Cup failure, where he got too far back to be a factor and the firm ground was also likely against, but there's still plenty to like about him in this race. At his prior start he ran 102 in the Caulfield Cup (Soft 6) when he should have finished closer and 100.5 before that over 2000m at Randwick on Good 4 ground. While his best no doubt comes on wet ground, he doesn't need to be anywhere near those peaks to win this race. His figures on Good tracks measure as very hard to beat, including that 100.5 three runs ago on Good 4 and a 101.9 last Spring on Good 3 ground at Caulfield. He also had an older 101.3 over 2500m at Flemington on Good 3 ground. One big key here could be barrier 5, which gives him the potential to settle closer than is typically the case (especially up to 2400m). The average of his 5 best ratings when <5L off the lead at the 800m is 103.4 (three of them on Good ground), when 5 to 8L back the average is 101.2 and when further than 8L back his best five average just 99.2. Can produce something good enough to win off a Melbourne Cup run? That's a natural query, but history shows that the Melbourne Cup has been the best form reference for this race. In the past 15 years, the Melbourne Cup has supplied just 21% of the runners in this race (29 of 134) and won 53% of them (8 of 15) for a +40% profit backing all. With that in mind and the fact that horse talent has to be the first priority in assessing a race, I have to mark Avilius as the one to beat.
2Levendi101He's had a stack of issues since his 3YO season and hasn't come back anywhere near the same horse. His best this prep is a 94.2 and that's also his best in the last 2 years.
3Brimham Rocks9He's been racing well this prep and comes off a 98 rating last start at Flemington. This time last year he ran a 102 and 99.7 as his peaks, which can win, but in the 12 months since his best is 98.5. He needs to find a little extra on that level to win this.
4Sound5.5He's racing in career best form this preparation. He ran 99.1 last start at Flemington when narrowly beaten by Ashrun, had excuses at MV the start before and prior to that he ran 99.9 and 98.7. Consistency around a rating level that puts him right in the finish of this race deserves plenty of respect in the market. It is worth noting though that he's yet to win in 19 starts since coming from overseas and hasn't yet broke the 100 rating mark, which may ultimately be needed to win this race.
5Future Score13He's another racing in career best form this preparation, running a 97.3 new peak winning the Cranbourne Cup and then 96.4 behind Ashrun last start in the Hotham. That's still 1.5-2L below the 99.5 standard for this race though, so I think he needs to improve again. That's not impossible, but I have to prefer others.
6Lord Belvedere4.8He ran 97 behind Persan last start, but pulled up lame. Prior to that he ran 100.3 over 2500m at Flemington when he produced outstanding sectionals to win from well back in the field. That was a new peak off a 70 day break with some indicators to say he could rate higher in the future. That suggests he certainly has the talent to win this race and I like that he's been freshened for this (42 days), where the others are all coming off the rigours of recent racing, deep into their preparation. His peak in his first Australian prep came off a 35 day break, a new peak the following prep came off a 49 day break and his latest 100.3 peak came off a 70 day break. He looks to have decent prospects here to return to something like that 100.3 performance or even better. Right among the top chances for me.
7Attorney26He trialled in great style on the 10th Nov at Randwick, but his best so far is only 95.8 which is a couple of lengths off measuring up to this. That did come last start, so he brings some potential to run another new peak, but quite a few others have to rate in front of him here.
8Princess Jenni12She relished a very fast run 2400m in the Bendigo Cup and won with a 102 rating. However it was a big spike on her form over the past 12 months and she was unwanted in betting at $26. While the quality of that win deserves respect, historically it's far more likely for a horse to regress a few points off such a performance than to hold their rating. That still gives her a chance, but her lack of consistency around the required level must be factored into the price.
9Scarlet Dream67Her best over the past 12 months has been in the 95-96 range and she's been a little below that level in her last two without an obvious excuse. She looks outclassed.

Betting Strategy

Race Appeal — Average

If you’d like to speculate on runners that look slight value:

BACK (WIN) — Avilius (stake 1.1% of your bank)

BACK (WIN) — Lord Belvedere (stake 0.7% of your bank)


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 121.25

Total Units Returned: 112.64

ROI: -7.10%


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