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EXPERT RUGBY TIPS: STATE OF ORIGIN

2024 STATE OF ORIGIN – GAME 1

The 2024 State of Origin series marks a new beginning for New South Wales. After six seasons of underachievement and failure, astonishingly losing three of the last four series when heavily favoured, Brad Fittler was forced out as coach. Unfortunately for the Blues faithful, Michael Maguire has seemingly adopted a similar policy of selection madness that has crippled New South Wales so often in the past.

There were some selection calls that could be justified. Jarome Luai edged out Matt Burton. Zac Lomax pipped Josh Addo-Carr. James Tedesco has been outstanding but there can be no criticism of Dylan Edwards.

More prevalent though were a raft of bizarre selection calls. Reece Robson over Api Koroisau is utter madness. Starting Cameron McInnes over Isaah Yeo is crazy, particularly with McInnes serving as backup hooker. Only one prop was selected despite having not a single back on the bench. Rugby-bound Joseph Suaalii is a middle-of-the-road centre at best. Spencer Leniu has barely played this year.

It has Queensland entering a series in the rare spot as favourites but a position the state absolutely deserves.

Billy Slater’s team has lost Kalyn Ponga and Cameron Munster in the backs and will be without forwards Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Tom Flegler and Tom Gilbert through injury while David Fifita was a stunning omission but the Maroons team is much better balanced and far more settled.

The bench, in particular, provides a huge edge on the Blues and should be able to take advantage of a tiring Blues pack that lacks impact both on and off the bench. Harry Grant and Selwyn Cobbo are going to wreak havoc.

The last three Origins played in NSW and Queensland have been won by the home state but Accor has not been the happy hunting ground for the Blues it once was. NSW won the dead rubber last season but lost the series opener in 2022. Since 2013, NSW holds a 7-5 edge. In live matches though, it is 5-5.

Also notable is the fact Queensland have won four of the last five game ones – and the last four when Origin was played in its traditional mid-year slot.

Queensland hold a talent edge. They hold an edge in the key positions. They hold a coaching intelligence edge. They hold a continuity edge. The Maroons are the only way to bet this game.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Queensland at $1.65+

The change of coach with the Blues will result in a change of style and Michael Maguire is expected to be far more defence-oriented than his predecessor, far more in line with Ricky Stuart and Laurie Daley than Brad Fittler.
The team selection of the Blues is indicative of a focus on defence. Tackling workrate seems to be the key criteria for forwards. Accor has tended to be an under ground at Origin level. In the last 14 Origins at the ground, 12 have tallied 34 or fewer. In the last 13 Origin series openers, 11 have tallied 34 or fewer. The under is a very good bet.

BACK: Under 36.5 at $1.75+

BACK: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try at $2.25+

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is an elite tryscorer and he has taken that to the Origin arena. In his four Origin games – all at centre- the Hammer has crossed five times. He is in great tryscoring nick for the Dolphins with eight tries in his last six games including three in two games since returning from injury. He gets a great matchup against the defensively poor Joseph Suaalii. He looks perhaps the best bet of Origin I.

Want to learn how to lay bet?

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When you place a lay bet, you are betting on something not to happen. Let’s think about the Melbourne Cup again. Remember: there can only be one winner. But what about the others trailing behind them? If you place a lay bet in a “Win” market, you can celebrate if the runner tails off at the back of the field.

STATE OF ORIGIN TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

State of Origin Tips: Betfair

Introduction

Are you ready to take your State of Origin betting to the next level? The State of Origin series is back in 2024, promising electrifying rugby league action as the Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues renew their fierce rivalry. As a Betfair enthusiast, you’re in the perfect position to make the most of this thrilling sporting event. Here, we’ll provide you with expert tips and strategies to enhance your State of Origin betting experience and increase your chances of success.

Understanding the State of Origin

Before diving into the tips, let’s quickly recap the significance of the State of Origin series. Originating in 1980, this rugby league spectacle features three matches between Queensland and New South Wales. The series is known for its intense rivalry and passionate atmosphere, with players representing their state with immense pride.

Research and Analysis

To make informed betting decisions, it’s crucial to conduct thorough research and analysis. What better place to start that right here on the Betfair Hub! Our experts will focus on games 1, 2, and 3 of the 2024 series, analyzing the previous head-to-head records between Queensland and New South Wales to identify any trends or historical advantages.

They’ll also include key player statistics in their past performances in the State of Origin series, look for standout performers, and assess their potential impact on the upcoming games. Additionally, they’ll pay attention to external factors such as weather conditions, as they can significantly influence gameplay and outcomes, the importance of home-ground advantage, and the impact of injuries or suspensions on team dynamics.

Betfair Betting Strategies

Now that you have a solid foundation of knowledge, let’s explore some effective State Of Origin betting strategies on the Betfair Exchange.

Types of Bets

  • Moneyline bets: This straightforward bet involves wagering on the overall match winner.
  • Point spread bets: Consider handicapping and bet on whether a team will win by a certain margin.
  • Over/under bets: Wager on whether the total number of points scored in a match will be over or under a specified amount.
    Tips for Successful Betting
  • Stay informed: Continuously research and stay updated on team news, recent form, and player performances.
  • Historical trends: Examine past State of Origin outcomes to identify any recurring patterns.
  • Assess team morale: Consider team dynamics, motivation levels, and the impact of key players on team performance.

 

Money Management

  • Set a budget: Allocate a specific amount for your State of Origin bets to avoid overspending.
  • Avoid chasing losses: Don’t let emotions dictate your betting decisions. Stick to your strategy and avoid reckless betting to recover losses.
  • Practice responsible gambling: Enjoy the State of Origin matches responsibly and bet within your limits.

Expert Predictions

Now, let’s delve into some expert predictions for the 2024 State of Origin series. While predictions can never be entirely certain, they can provide valuable insights into potential outcomes and betting opportunities.

Throughout the series, keep an eye on this page for information regarding key players who have historically performed well in State of Origin matches. Also keep an eye out for updates to strategies and game-changers that could shape the games. Remember, it’s essential to consider multiple viewpoints and sources to make well-informed decisions.

Conclusion

For this State Of Origin, there is only one location to keep you equipped with the top expert tips and strategies to elevate your wagering IQ. As you gear up for the highly anticipated 2024 State of Origin series, remember to head to the Betfair Hub and this page for the latest research, analysis, and betting strategies, and if you’d like to place a bet, head to the Betfair Exchange now!

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