EXPERT RUGBY TIPS: STATE OF ORIGIN

Queensland have not lost a decider at Suncorp Stadium since 1994 when it was called Lang Park and Mal Meninga was captaining the Maroons. History is very much on the side of the home team. Had Billy Slater optimised his selections, confidence would be even higher than it already is on a Queensland win.

Overlooking David Fifita to start Kurt Capewell is one of the more questionable Queensland Origin selections in history. Under no measurement is Capewell better. The decision has given the Blues an out when there shouldn’t be any with their dominance on the edge extreme.

It is hard to knock any of his other calls. Selwyn Cobbo and Dane Gagai were the natural replacements for injured duo Murray Taulagi and Xavier Coates. Kalyn Ponga is an elite talent who adds wildcard value from the bench.

New South Wales have replaced the injured Latrell Mitchell with Bradman Best while Mitch Barnett is a very astute inclusion at the expense of Haumole Olakau’atu.

While the Blues have probably come out ahead at the selection table, the weight of the situation makes Queensland a very good bet.

The Maroons have been near unbeatable at Suncorp for a generation, winning 14 of the last 17 at the ground. The home team have won nine straight Game 3s with the Game 2 loser winning eight of the last 10 final games of the series.

The home team and Queensland have each won seven of the last eight deciders.

It is impossible to go past the weight of history. Queensland are the bet.

The over has hit convincingly in the opening two matches of the series with totals of 48 and 56 but the under looks the top play in the decider.

Ashley Klein has officiated seven straight Origins that have gone north of 34 but there is a lot of room between that and the 41.5-point total.

Suncorp has typically been a low-scoring ground at Origin level with none of the last eight at the ground surpassing 38 points. Only one Game 3 since 2015 has gone over 38 points with the last four tallying 38 or fewer.

The under is a very nice play in Origin III.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is one of the premier tryscorers in the game and he has brought that to State of Origin level. In his six Origin games he has scored a remarkable nine tries, including last game after returning to the field following an AC joint injury. He has scored at least one in every appearance. He has nine tries in seven games for the Dolphins this season and just continues to get better. The best bet in the game is The Hammer crossing.

D. Edwards – A fullback has won in four of the last six series and after a stellar debut must be considered one of the Blues’ best hopes.

B. Too – Wingers rarely win the award – just once since 2010 – so as impressive as To’o is, a win is unlikely.

S. Crichton – The best centre in the game but on an underdog and not getting the ball enough, looks unders.

B. Best – Knights behemoth was good on debut last year and has been in good nick for the Knights but has too many errors in him.

Z. Lomax – High risk/high reward player who has had a good first series but wingers just don’t win the award.

J. Luai – The Panthers pivot comes off his best Origin game but was nowhere near man of the match. Not winning.

M. Moses – Moses was absolutely brilliant in Game 2, setting up the win in all facets but no player has won two gongs in a series since 2011 and Greg Bird is the only player since 1993 to win back–to-back awards.

J. Trbojevic – Won a Man of the Match gong in 2019 but played just 29 minutes in the opener and 33 mins in Game 2. No impact, limited minutes.

R. Robson – Robson played 80 minutes in the opener but minutes reduced in Game 2. Hard worker but does not stand out.

P. Haas – Haas was chastened into his best Origin performance where he ran for 186m, had two tackle breaks and four offloads. Will be right in the mix if the Blues win.

A. Crichton – It took an historic performance from Mitch Moses to take the award off him last game. Playing well enough to win outright but if close can get it for series showing.

L. Martin – Played 11 straight Origins and has become more a focal point this time around but is not someone who shows up enough on the stats sheet to be a real hope.

C. Murray – The best lock forward in the world and it was surprising to see him get 62 minutes in the opener. With those kind of minutes he is one of the best Blues hopes.

I. Yeo – Played 14 Origins with some good numbers and not won and from the bench it is highly unlikely.

M. Barnett – Hard-as-nail Warrior who debuts. Has the right mix of workrate and impact but is unlikely to get enough minutes.

S. Leniu – High impact player who has been absolutely super in his debut series but is highly unlikely to get enough minutes to win.

C. Watson – Watson was fantastic off the bench in his first game but got only 17 minutes and minutes will likely again be a factor.

R. Walsh – Walsh has been central to the narrative of this series from being knocked out in the opener to having a shocker in Game 2. Is the most likely Maroons gamebreaker. Huge show.

S. Cobbo – The Broncos flyer has had an ordinary season by his lofty standards and got dropped for Game 2. Recalled but a highly unlikely candidate for man of the match honours.

D. Gagai – Veteran outside back recalled for his first game since the 2022 decider. Only one try in last 11 Origins, has a horror matchup and defensive form is poor. No.

H. Tabuai-Fidow – The Hammer has scored in every Origin match he has played, including scoring after damaging his AC joint in Melbourne. Genuine gamebreaker. Some hope.

V. Holmes – Not won the award in 19 career Origin appearances and is playing as bad as he has throughout his career.

T. Dearden – Dearden never stops trying and has plenty of admirers but has a second fiddle role and even that has been clouded by Kalyn Ponga’s inclusion on the bench.

D. Cherry-Evans – A half has won eight of the last 14 Man of the Match awards but DCE won in the opener and players rarely win twice in a series.

R. Cotter – Game one Man of the Match last year and is playing huge minutes for a prop with 69 and 70 respectively this series. A huge runner if this is a tough defensive contest.

B. Hunt – Won a Man of the Match gong in 2021 but his split role with Harry Grant all but rules him out of another one and Ponga on the bench almost ensures he does not play in halves.

L. Collins – The best player throughout the 2023 series but form has been down this year and minutes limited. Was excellent for the Chooks last week but happy to leave out.

K. Capewell – Stunning selection over David Fifita. Is as likely to win player of the match honours as Bugs Bunny or Hulk Hogan.

J. Nanai – Tryscoring edge who played 80 minutes in both games and has been racking up big defensive numbers but is found out too often and lacks the workrate of some teammates.

P. Carrigan – Absolute workhorse who will win one of these Origin man of the match gongs soon. Gets through a huge amount of work and it is quality work.

H. Grant – The best hooker in the game but his split role with Ben Hunt severely damages his chances and he has been without club football due to an injury.

M. Fotuaika – Strong prop but is too anonymous to threaten from the bench.

F. Kaufusi – Old timer who has stunningly been picked to play in all three games. Absolutely zero chance from the bench.

K. Ponga – Genuine star who won the Dally M Medal but minutes are unlikely to be big, particularly if Queensland are ahead, and he looked rusty returning from injury against the Raiders.