Cricket Trading Tips: Expert Trading Selections

Matt Barker, a pro cricket trader will be providing his best cricket trading tips and analysis for selected games during the summer, as well as his thoughts at the end of play on days one and three of Tests.

For pre-match analysis of the Indian Tour of Australia, our analysts are covering every game on the Betfair Hub.

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

End of day 2 review

Score: Aus 338ao, Ind 96/2

We have some game on here in the middle of some series. Matthew Wade has an awful lot to answer for after one of the worst shots I’ve seen since Jason Roy did something similar to another spinner in another crucial moment at Edgbaston 2019 (and cost me the GDP of a small country!).

Context: Australia were batting India out of this Test and out of the series at 230/3, even after Labuschagne had cut a ball straight to Rahane at slip. There were 20 deliveries left until the new ball when Wade lost his head and his wicket, dancing down the track to Jadeja and playing a horrific slog across the line when not reaching the pitch. This exposed the middle/lower order to Bumrah and he caused total chaos, getting Green and Paine before some tail-end hitting got Australia to at least respectability at 338.

Smith played a knock that we haven’t seen in a long time on these shores and, despite some stupidity, I think Aus probably have just about enough to get the job done from here. The deck certainly has something in it and, with 3 full days in prospect, I fancy it will start to go up and down and take sharper turn. Lyon will be a handful and the three seamers are all elite.

I think the market could shift quite quickly tomorrow so we’ll split stakes in half and take half pre-off and leave half to be matched in play.

Betting Strategy

LAY — The Draw at $4.70 (and $4.20 in-play) 1u stake for around 3.5u liability

BACK — Australia $1.64 (and $1.80 in play) 2u total stake

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

End of day 2 review

Score: Pak 297ao, NZ 286/3

There was a real good game in prospect here after a thriller in the first test. NZ looked set to be reduced for 70odd/4 when Nicholls edged to slip, but Shaheen had overstepped and the hosts never looked back from there. Pakistan tried hard but were just too loose at key times and the best test player in the world currently punished them. Kane is in unreal form and looks almost impossible to remove at the moment.

I managed to get against the tourists at the right time, but from here the play seems to be getting on to the Black Caps at an acceptable price.

I suggest a similar strategy to when they played the West Indies earlier in the summer in a similar situation which ended up with us collecting a good profit. Scaling into New Zealand slowly if Pakistan begin ok with the bat. The deck does look ok to bat, but scoreboard pressure and the elite New Zealand attack should be good enough to get them the win.

The current odds on New Zealand don’t make for exciting reading but there is potential in the third inns for some Pakistan partnerships and the odds on New Zealand becoming more palatable. Hopefully the good tipping form continues!

I’ll be back probably after Day 3 with a trading update.

Betting Strategy

BACK — New Zealand $1.40/$1.50/$1.60 (split your stake into 3)

Market favourites – Melbourne Stars

I thought the Stars were just about rightful favs when they had Bairstow to open with Stoinis, Pooran and Maxi. The English star has been recalled to the England test squad and with confusion reigning on those upcoming series, the likelihood is that he will just go home and spend some time with family out of a bubble, like Banton and Curran.

Their fast bowling stocks look awful and I can’t possibly have them as favs.

My favourites – Perth Scorchers

Perth looks absolutely stacked in the bowling ranks. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Cam Green as even if he isn’t picked for the Test series he could well be unavailable for the Scorchers, but even without him they probably have the best-balanced attack in the comp.

Batting wise, they have added some star power with Roy and Munro. That lineup is still fearsome pretty much anywhere in the country. They will need Roy to find some form, as he has struggled at the top level recently. A drop down the grades could well be what he needs though.

My value – Melbourne Renegades

They were pretty useless last year, but have recruited well and I fancy they could perform a lot better than their odds north of $9 suggests. The batting spine is rock solid with Finch, Harris, Marsh, Nabi and they have added a star in Roussow and an extremely shrewd operator in Wasim.

Dan Christian is a loss without doubt, but Benny Howell is a real clever bowler and will complement Richardson, Nabi, Pattinson, Wasim etc well.

Best of the rest – Hobart Hurricanes

Hobart could cause some proper chaos with the bat in hand. Short, Wade, Malan, Ingram are all extremely good players (Malan is the number 1 t20 bat in the world) and they could chase or set silly totals.

They may well need to though, as despite what Shane Warne says, Riley Meredith is rubbish and Lamichane won’t be there until January at the earliest. The bowling stocks look weak but they will be a fun watch.

The rest

Adelaide will miss Rashid for the business end of the tournament and are nowhere near good enough without him. The Sixers will be missing T Curran and that’s a big loss for a side lacking in bowling quality.

The Thunder are interesting at a big price but are probably also short a bowler or two. I fancy Hales could go mental and he’s backed up well by Uzzie and Billings. They’re probably a touch big but I’ll leave them alone.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Perth Scorchers at $6 for 2 units

BACK – Melbourne Renegades at $9 for 1 unit

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