Cricket Trading Tips: Expert Trading Selections

Matt Barker, a pro cricket trader will be providing his best cricket trading tips and analysis for selected games during the summer, as well as his thoughts at the end of play on days one and three of Tests.

For pre-match analysis of the Indian Tour of Australia, our analysts are covering every game on the Betfair Hub.

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

This game has similar vibes to last night’s dead rubber across the Tasman. Australia have rested two of their best players, Warner and Cummins (one forced and one chosen) and there’s a fair chance their intensity will dip a tiny bit.

India aren’t as far off as the opening two games have looked on paper and the odds should be a lot closer together than the current 1.6x Aus. I have it around $1.80 Aus, $2.20 India.

It’s anyone’s guess as to what the pitch will be like as this is the first game in Canberra this year, but it tends to be very flat at Manuka so that would be my first thought. India may well want to bat first if they win the toss and Aus may want to test themselves chasing so they could bowl first anyway.

I fancy India will be pretty competitive all game. They’ve made 308 and 338 and would likely have made more than that if batting first / not chasing such huge totals. A fair few of their wickets have been playing shots that the situations required, that they wouldn’t play in a normal situation.

I would have no problem backing either team’s overs 300-312 ish as an opening line. Once again it is difficult to guess where they will open, however, bear that in mind at 2.40pm tomorrow.

Anyone on Smith top Aus bat for the series, he’s 35 runs in front of Finch who is his only competition. Smith has already beaten Warner head to head and the Aus to win the series bet is also home.

Betting Strategy

BACK — India to win the third ODI $2.50+ (I’d be looking for a trade sub $1.60 but it’s a good bet irrespective of what you do after)

BACK — First innings runs over at around 310 or below at evens

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

We had a fill up on Sunday and hopefully, everyone’s pockets are flush after a good start to the summer! This is properly tricky tonight, with a dead rubber T20 and plenty of Kiwi eyes on the Test series, starting Thursday.

The Black Caps have sent Southee, Jamieson and Taylor to link up with the Test squad, so they won’t take part. They’re already short of Williamson, Boult, Munro, De Grandhomme amongst other regulars. Santner will captain and if the West Indies fancy it, they actually have a chance in game three.

They’ll still struggle to contain anyone with the ball, but there are some B team names in this squad. Phillips seemed to aggravate his kneecap again during that century yesterday so even he isn’t guaranteed a start.

The Bay Oval played exactly as expected and NZ were far too good. This feels like an exhibition match to be honest, so I’d expect big runs again. The sixes line is 19-20, which feels about right but we can go with West Indies most 6s again (TBTNL™) with relative confidence after one win and one 14-14 tie.

The market was extremely bullish on the West Indies (with the ball?!?) early in the second T20 so it’s hard to recommend specifics pre-off as when someone with so much cash is so far off the mark you simply have to oppose, but I’ll probably be looking to be pro bat again tonight.

Neither bowling side inspires confidence and with a low-intensity game, we sometimes see silly scores. Keep stakes sensible though as I’m much less confident this game than any of the four games I’ve previewed so far this summer.

I’ll be back Wednesday for the third ODI preview before the NZ v WI test Thursday and Aus v India T20 series kicking off Friday night. We’re cooking now, let’s get it!

Betting Strategy

BACK — West Indies most 6s $1.60+ (some $1.72 out there if you look hard enough)

If trading the game, have positions that are positive on the batting side and negative on the fielding side.

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

The opening game of the summer went pretty much as expected. I said in the preview that if Shami and Bumrah don’t perform to their absolute best, India will be in trouble in the field. They combined for 20 0 132 4, but this certainly flattered them.

India didn’t take a wicket until the 28th over and didn’t get their second until the final ball of the 40th over, by which time the hosts were off and gone on 264. They plundered 110 off the last 10 thanks to Smith and Maxwell and the contest was effectively over. India reached a respectable 308 in reply, but they will struggle to chase big totals without their second-best player, Rohit Sharma, who is still recovering from injury.

On Sunday they simply have to find ways to get into the Australian middle order quickly and limit the upside to 300-330. The forecast is fine and hot so we can expect 600+ runs again. The market was extremely bullish on Australia from around the 5th over and it was spot on.

We can expect something similar on Sunday so if they bat first it makes sense to be on the Aussies again. There’s no reason India can’t put up 300+ batting first, so if that’s the case I’d be waiting for something odds against before backing Australia. Anyone that took the Aussies to win the series before game one is sitting pretty and Smith top bat / Smith > Warner is in excellent shape too.

Betting Strategy

BACK —If Australia bat first back them $1.65+ for a trade to $1.1x

BACK — If India bat first wait for $2.20+ on Australia (or scale in from $2.0-3.0)

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

We learnt a few things on Friday night, but generally what happened just reaffirmed my initial thoughts:

  • The West Indies bowling is a joke
  • Hamish Bennett isn’t very good
  • Lockie Ferguson is very good

It’s usually a good idea to disregard most of what happens at Eden Park, such is the unique nature of ground and boundary dimensions. The Windies took 29 off Bennet’s first over and were 55/0 after 3 overs at that point. They belted 12 sixes in total (NZ hit 11 so The Bet That Never Loses ™ didn’t lose!)

We move from the smallest boundaries in New Zealand to probably the biggest for games two and three so a line will be drawn under this game, aside from the fact that I just can’t be with WI below around $3-5 in play. They lost 5 wickets for 1 run in 17 balls on Friday night. They’re impossible to trust.

The Bay Oval is situated in the beachside resort of Mount Maunganui and really is a special place to visit and play cricket. The boundaries are large but the pitch is usually flat and we can expect big runs again. I fancy that the ground plays much more into the hands of the Black Caps and they should get the job done again. The market is yet to form, but we should be able to get north of $1.70 again and that’ll do me.

If New Zealand bat first, I’d be keen to back their overs on inns runs as they should be able to run the Windies ragged on a big outfield. It’s a guess where they set the line with no corporate lines up and obviously no liquidity yet on the exchange, but anything in the 160s up to 170 sounds good to me around even money.)

BACK — New Zealand at $1.70+

BACK — New Zealand over first inns runs 170 or lower

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

We are back! Summer has officially arrived and, after the worst year in recent memory, there is a sense of optimism surrounding the next few months. India have turned up and we’re set for a special summer between the best side in the world and the side with the world’s most formidable home record.

We have some hit and giggle to get through before the real stuff starts in Adelaide on December 17, but that’s ok as it gives everyone a chance to make some cash to lay the draw with (relax, Twitter. I’m joking. Sort of).

Australia

The batting starts and ends with a certain ex-captain here really. Smith has seven innings at home versus India in ODIs and has failed to surpass 40 just once, notching up two tons (105 and 149) at an average of 66.71.

By contrast, David Warner has nine home innings against India and has failed to get to 25 five times, with an average of 43.44. Smith to outscore Warner is odds against if you go hunting and Smith top series runscorer around the $4 mark seems good shopping to me.

Bowling wise, the Aussies have the edge in these conditions, without doubt. The ability to play three top-class seamers gives them an edge over everyone else in the world. Starc is not the type of seamer you want as one of two as he can be a touch erratic and lose you control. However, they have the luxury of using him as a strike weapon three or four times an innings with the extremely talented and highly consistent duo of Hazlewood and Cummins putting plenty of pressure on at the other end.

Zampa has come on leaps and bounds in the last few years (though I’m still not 100% convinced). The fifth/sixth bowler will depend upon the make-up of the side, however, India are going to have to target whoever it is hard.

India

Father-to-be Virat Kohli is around for all the white-ball stuff and it’s obviously imperative for India that he makes big runs or else they’re in all sorts. KL Rahul is world-class, but rumours he will bat at 4/5 mitigate his talent somewhat. Shikhar Dhawan will need to step up big time in the absence of Rohit Sharma. Virat can’t do it all on his own.

Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami are extremely talented bowlers but are going to need above-average performances all summer for India to be competitive. Yuzvendra Chahal is very talented but beyond that, I fear for them. Navdeep Saini has talent also but it’s a big ask to come here and step straight up to the plate and Kuldeep Yadav looks a shadow of his former self, even at the age of just 25.

Betting Strategy

The Aussies really should be far too good on home decks, unless it turns square in Sydney (there is certainly a chance of this if they use the same pitch for Friday and Sunday with weekend temps set to hit 36 degrees).

BACK — Australia to win the ODI series $1.80+

The market will probably set run lines pretty high for these two (they usually do) and there are a couple of ways to play the market if the initial line is 300+. You can either back overs early and lay a higher line in the first 10-15 overs (thus creating a middle where both of your bets could win) or wait for the lines to get well above opening line before laying that line (say 330-340 ish).

LAY — First innings runs 10-15% above opening line in the early part of the first innings.

To bet in-play, call our Telephone Betting line on 132 238.

In example number 4,286 of cricket being cricket, we have two International matches scheduled at the same time after no men’s International cricket for 10 weeks. That rant is for a different article, but it still infuriates me every single time.

Flicking through some stats for this series, I was amazed at the things I found. The Blackcaps have a hideous record in T20Is at Eden Park (P21 W6) and yet have a very good recent ODI record at the ground (lost once since 2014.) Another quirk is that there have been three ties in 21 T20s here. It’s a pretty small sample size but a tie at $34-50 pre-off may not be the worst bet for a tickle.

New Zealand should be able to dominate a pretty laughable West Indian bowling attack. Oshane Thomas is useless and the other seamers hardly instill fear in a batting line-up that, admittedly, is missing some class and quality due to the Test series upcoming in a week’s time.

Tim Southee, Lockie Ferguson, Mitch Santner, Ish Sodhi plus one other is a solid enough bowling line-up that should be able to deal with their opposition, especially as you can count on at least two brain fade wickets at the other end.

Note: The Bet That Never Loses™ is in operation in this game. For those that don’t know, the bet that never loses is West Indies to hit the most 6s. Back it, you won’t regret it. (It sometimes loses).

The West Indies have a very Windies looking line-up. Prodigious talents, mavericks, inconsistent types and players that will have people throwing things at TVs all summer (hi). They’re a side that are a good bet at odds in white-ball cricket but are impossible to back at anything approaching parity odds wise.

I’m happy to back New Zealand to improve on that hideous Auckland record with a low odds in-play lay ($1.10-ish) in case the Windies do something ridiculous to come back from the dead, as is their want.

BACK — New Zealand at $1.70+


Related Articles

Betfair Mobile App for Apple and Android

The Betfair App puts the power of the Betfair Exchange in your hands, faster and quicker than ever before. ...

Geeks Toy Betting App

Geeks Toy is a leading third party application for Betfair users. It is also the number one third party ...

Professional Cricket Trading Setup

Trading Cricket successfully can depend on how good your setup is. Caan Berry walks you through what you need ...