Betfair’s internal team of Data Scientists have created an AFL Prediction Model. The model creates probabilities for every game. Including finals. You’ll often notice discrepancies between the AFL odds on the Betfair Exchange and the probabilities.
The AFL model uses a number of features, including the team’s recent out-performance of the line, the team’s overall player rating relative to the opponent, a rating of the worst 25% of players in the team, ground specific home ground advantage and an Elo rating feature.
These features are then used in a stacked machine learning model, which outputs the probabilities for each team winning and are then converted to odds.
If you’re interested in creating a similar resource, we strongly recommend checking out Betfair’s Github. You can find resources there that will help you create your own AFL Prediction Model.