AFL PREDICTIONS MODEL
The AFL Predictions model uses a number of features, including the team’s recent out-performance of the line, the team’s overall player rating relative to the opponent, a rating of the worst 25% of players in the team, ground specific home ground advantage and an Elo rating feature.
These features are then used in a stacked machine learning model, which outputs the probabilities for each team winning and are then converted to odds.
If you’re interested in creating a similar resource, we strongly recommend checking out Betfair’s Github. You can find resources there that will help you create your own AFL Predictions Model.
AFL PREDICTIONS MODEL
Most people who have taken part in an AFL footy tipping competition would have at one time or another used ‘gut feeling’ or some other inexact method to make their round-by-round selections. We might have tipped based on club colours. Or because of a personal dislike for a player or club. Or by using some other obscure idea. And for the most part, we more than likely would have been wrong! Betfair’s cutting-edge AFL Prediction Model takes the guesswork – and randomness – out of making AFL predictions. The AFL Prediction Model is yet another example of why Betfair is the industry leader when it comes to putting punters first by arming them with the type of information than can significantly enhance their wagering considerations.
Built by Betfair’s resident data scientists using a range of facts and figures including historic game results and more recent game and player trends, the AFL Prediction Model creates probable outcomes for the 198 home-and-away matches played over 23 rounds each season, plus the nine finals including the AFL Grand Final. What exactly goes into determining these probable outcomes designed to help punters make their AFL predictions? Betfair’s data experts source and consider a range of factors, including teams’ recent performances relative to betting lines, how each team’s selected 22-man squad stacks up against its opponent based on player ratings, how the bottom 25 per cent of each team’s squad rates relatively, and team form at specific venues including home-ground advantage. This data is then fed into a state-of-the-art machine learning system to determine the probable outcomes of games.
These probable outcomes are illustrated via an expected score for each team in each game of the 2024 AFL season including finals. The AFL Prediction Model then calculates
‘model’ odds based on the expected scores that enable punters to assess the value of a betting consideration by comparing these odds with the market odds on offer via the Betfair Exchange.
Bettors will note that there are often discrepancies between the AFL Prediction Model odds and the odds offered for games on the Betfair Exchange. It’s important to understand that the AFL Prediction Model provides a price it thinks a team should be set at, based on crunching of the critical data. For example, once the data for a game has been calculated, the AFL Prediction Model might set ‘Team A’ at $2.20. The market, however, might start ‘Team A’ at longer odds, say $3.00, which would suggest to punters that ‘Team A’ could provide excellent betting value.
This innovative ability to allow punters to make these types of comparisons when considering AFL tipping is yet another reason why Betfair – Australia’s largest betting exchange – continues to enhance its reputation for putting bettors first. Betfair’s AFL Prediction model and its associated score predictor is the optimum tool for punters looking to refine their AFL wagering strategies and extract maximum value from their AFL betting predictions. And don’t forget, Betfair also provides punters with the choice of either backing or laying a team in an AFL match, an option that underlines Betfair’s punter-first philosophy.
Betfair has all the necessary tools – created by combining critical data analysed scientifically and the informed opinions of savvy sports betting experts – to help guide punters with their AFL tipping. To start taking advantage of what’s on offer, including the unique AFL Prediction Model, sign up to Betfair today.
