EXPERT GOLF TIPS: THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP TIPS AND PREVIEW
The Open Championship returns to Northern Ireland with Royal Portrush hosting the fourth and final major of 2025. It is a red-hot field as one would expect from a major. Scottie Scheffler is the standout favourite ahead of Rory McIlroy, who is chasing a measure of redemption for his disappointing showing in 2019 when the Open returned to his homeland for the first time in 68 years. With wind in the forecast and history in the air, we are in for an almighty major.
COURSE OVERVIEW
Royal Portrush hosts its third Open Championship this week, first hosting the Open in 1951 before the tournament returned in 2019. The flamboyant Max Faulkner won the inaugural staging back in 1951, famously signing a ball before the opening of the final round ‘Max Faulkner – Open Champion’, before Irishman Shane Lowry won in 2019. Royal Portrush is an incredible venue, hillier than other rota courses but a remarkable test whose best defence will be the wind. It is a course that rewards good shots and punishes bad. Look for the difficult, undulating greens to play a key role. Form from the tee is irrelevant here – strong iron shots, form around the green and a hot putter will determine the winner.
Key Statistics
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- GIR
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 3 Scoring
- Putting: Slow Greens
Key Correlation Courses
- Any links course – so look to the Alfred Dunhill Links, past Open Championships, the Scottish Open and the 2019 Irish Open
WINNING PROFILE
No major is better set up for older players than the Open Championship with experience and patience two key characteristics required. Form at the Open is a must with a prior Top 10 needed. Recent form is ideal so looking for a player with a Top 3 in one of their previous eight starts as well as being a winner in 2024. Majors form is usually a good guide so looking for a Top 20 at the PGA Championship or US Open in the last two months. Majors are won by elite players so looking to the Data Golf rankings and their Top 35.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Open Championship 2025 – Winner) Jon Rahm (Rated at $10+)
It has been a while between drinks for two-time major winner Jon Rahm but this looks like a great setup for him and with his form improving he is right in the mix here. His recent major form has been excellent with back-to-back Top 8 finishes while he has finished Top 10 in six of his last 10 major starts. He comes off a 2nd in Andalucia while he has finished Top 14 in 23 of his last 24 events. He leads LIV in GIR and ranks third in Scrambling and given his history at The Open, looks a great pic.
BACK (Open Championship 2025 – Winner Victor Hovland (at $26+)
Viktor Hovland has a great record in the Open Championship and given his return to form looks like one of the better plays this year. He has played the Open Championship four times and has finished inside the Top 13 on three of those occasions. The Norwegian won the Valspar in March and his major form this year has been good with three Top 25 finishes including a third at the US Open. His 2nd ranking in Strokes Gained: Approach on the PGA Tour has him right in the mix.
BACK (Open Championship 2025- Winner) Sepp Straka (at $34+)
There is an element of trust needed here given how poorly Sepp Straka has performed in majors this year – he has missed the cut on all three occasions – but his numbers dictate he must be a bet this year. The Austrian finished T-2 in the Open in 2023 and has a lovely profile, ranking Top 7 in Putting Average, GIR, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, Strokes Gained: Approach and Par 3 Scoring.
LAY (Open Championship 2025- Winner) Bryson DeChambeau (at $31 or Shorter)
Arguably the most popular golfer in the world, Bryson DeChambeau’s form since the US Open has been poor and given his poor record at the Open Championship, he is worth taking on. In seven Open Championships, DeChambeau has finished better than T-33 just once. In his start at Royal Portrush, he missed the cut. Not going well enough.
BACK-TO-LAY (Open Championship 2025-Winner- Justin Rose (Back at $61 or Better, Lay at $21 or Shorter)
Best In-Play Trading Opportunity
Justin Rose is typically a fast-starter in majors and despite having never won here, is rarely far away. Last year he finished T-2 and was right in the throes until the death. He comes into this off a sixth in the Scottish Open. Unlikely to win another major so cash in after his fast start.
BACK (Open Championship 2024- Make the Cut) Matteo Manassero (at $1.70+)
Manassero is a short-game wizard who leads the PGA Tour in Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Around The Green. He loves putting on slow greens too. Looks a super bet to make the cut.
BACK (Open Championship 2025-Top English player) Harry Hall (at $6+)
There is a large contingent of Englishmen lining up with the regular crew at the top of betting. Harry Hall looks great value though as an elite putter.
