GOLF MODEL TIPS: THE RYDER CUP

Just a couple of years shy of celebrating its 100 birthday, the Ryder Cup is a very different take on golf. Every two years Europe and the United States turn a gentleman’s game into a street fight and every drained putt sees players channelling their inner Lleyton Hewitt. Players who already have green jackets in their closets often admit that what happens in this competition is what they’re remembered for. There’s no prize money on the line, just continental pride.

For the current crop of stars, it’s as much about legacy as it is about golf. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm see it as a fifth major. Scottie Scheffler, usually ice-cold, admits the Ryder Cup nerves hit differently. Rookies like Ludvig Åberg are getting tossed straight into the fire.

This year’s battleground is Bethpage Black on Long Island. It’s a 7,400-yard par-71 with rough that swallows golf balls whole and bunkers that are near impossible to escape from. The famous sign at the first tee warns the track is “extremely difficult” and not recommended for average golfers. That’s an understatement. Long hitters have the advantage here, but accuracy still matters, and the fiery New York crowds will make sure the visitors feel every rimmed out putt.

Bethpage rewards having a bomber teeing off the odd holes in alternate shot, which is why Europe can’t afford to try and recapture the 2023 magic of the short hitting Lowry and Straka. Instead, the optimal lineup runs through McIlroy, Rahm, Åberg, and Hovland as the big stick swingers, with Fleetwood, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, and MacIntyre complementing them. Unfortunately Hovland is in the middle of a statistically horrible driving season. If he doesn’t find something on the range, Europe’s last foursomes pairing could be badly exposed. If he does, their foursomes chances improve dramatically.

A rough model put together for this event shows that pairing complementary skills-like bombers with putters or wedge players—only adds small gains, no more then 0.1-0.2 strokes per round. That means this Ryder Cup, like most, won’t be decided by clever pairings but by which players hit some positive variance at the right time. In 2023, Europe won by five points not because of strategy, but because Rahm, Rory, Åberg, and Hovland were lights out with the driver all week.

This event has certainly captured the interest of bettors, with flows well above a normal Tour week. The US team are the clear favourites and have been backed in hard across August and September driven mostly by the continued fall of Hovland along with the improvement of Ben Griffin and Russell Henley. The current $1.72 offers a tiny shred of value, but the big play is on the tie, which should be trading closer to $13.

For live betting opportunities, the key is to track Europe’s big four closely – especially Hovland. If he finds his driver, Europe is up for it. If not, Bethpage could be another American party, and the parochial New York crowd will make sure Europe hears about it every step of the way.