MEN’S US OPEN PREVIEW AND TIPS | TENNIS | SATURDAY AUGUST 30TH 2025
A Bublik vs T Paul
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Match Odds) Paul to win (recorded at $2.18) for 1.5 units (Rated at $1.98)
This feels like a genuine coin flip, so naturally I will defer to the player longer than $2 here. I do think Paul’s resilience/determination on return of serve over the best of 5 in the night session with the crowd at his back will be a very tough task for Bublik. The one question mark is Paul backing up off a long 5-setter the other night, however still happy to make a small play here.
J Sinner vs D Shapovalov
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Match Odds) Shapovalov to win (recorded at $28) for 1.5 units (Rated at $12.00)
Going to take a deep breath and make a play on Shapovalov here. I am not sure he should be $25+ against anyone in any match of any surface, such is his ceiling. To challenge Sinner, you need to have a high ceiling and play an aggressive game. Shapo fits the bill here, particularly if Sinner’s first serve percentage floats in the 50%’s as it has across the last couple of weeks. Don’t think the day conditions do Denis any harm either. A win is unlikely, but it is a price I’m comfortable taking.
L Noskova vs K Muchova
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Match Odds) Muchova to win (recorded at $1.94) for 1.5 units (Rated at $1.82)
This sets up as a tantalising match-up between two Czech’s. In terms of the player that I trust more at the moment at this stage of a grand slam? My preference strongly lies with Muchova, and enough for a 1.5 unit selection at the current prices. I loved her composure late against Cirstea in what was a massive danger game, and I like to her progress here.
D Parry vs M Kostyuk
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Kostyuk -4.5 games (recorded at $1.94) for 1.5 units (Rated at $1.83)
Kostyuk missed the cover by 0.5 games in her previous round, however, this is a better hardcourt match-up for her in my opinion. Happy to back her in again here.
US OPEN OUTRIGHT PREVIEW AND TIPS
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Mirra Andreeva (recorded at $17) for 0.75 units (Rated at $12.50)
BACK-TO-LAY: Shapes up as a potential grand slam breakthrough tournament for Andreeva here. Barring a shocker first-up against the up-and-down Parks, I’d be backing her through to the semi finals here at least.
BACK: (Winner) Coco Gauff (recorded at $13) for 0.75 units (Rated at $9.60)
BACK-TO-LAY – I won’t be getting invovled in her round 1 match…BUT…if her serve looks more solid, I think she only comes in from this price.
BACK: (Winner) Taylor Fritz (recorded at $32) for 0.5 units (Rated at $24.00)
BACK TO LAY – Don’t mind the early draw of Fritz compared to some of the other big names in the market. We saw the US Open throw up some surprises early last year (see Alcaraz losing to BVDZ, Djokovic losing to Popyrin), so I am happy to consider a back-to-lay of Fritz here.
BACK: (Winner) Tommy Paul (recorded at $300) for 0.25 units (Rated at $180.00)
BACK-TO-LAY: May be able to challenge some of the bigger names in the second half of the tournament. I don’t see him winning the tournament, but there may be a back-to-lay possibility at this price heading into a 4th round with Sinner.
HISTORICAL PROFILE BY DARREN PARKIN
The US Open is nearly upon us, as the tour descends on Flushing Meadows in New York City for the final major of the season.
Each of the four Slam events has its own special mystique about it, and the US Open, at times, can be known for a rock concert-type vibe and rowdy crowds. However, it is forging a different type of identity in recent years, and that is the most open of the four majors.
This century, 32 different players have won the US Open combined across the men’s and women’s draws, compared to 24 at the Australian Open, 26 at the French and 23 at Wimbledon.
It is a broad event that is becoming even more unpredictable, with six different individuals winning the last six instalments of both the women’s and men’s draws.
The last time six different men won any other major was at the French Open between 1994 and 1999.
For the women, Wimbledon has an active streak of nine different winners, but before that, you have to go back nearly half a century to find it at any of the four majors.
Never in the history of the sport has that happened at the same time on both the men’s and women’s draws at any major.
Over the last decade, nine different women have taken the 10 US Open titles, with only Naomi Osaka winning it twice during that tenure. 17 different women have occupied the 20 places in the final over that period, with only Osaka, Serena Williams and Sabalenka appearing in two US Open finals over the past decade.
On the men’s side, seven individuals (Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, Thiem, Alcaraz, Sinner and Wawrinka) have won the US Open in the last decade, compared to four, four and five at the other majors. 13 different men have occupied a place in the final at Flushing Meadows over that same journey.
Four-time champion Djokovic probably best encapsulates the unpredictable nature of the US Open.
He is lauded for his remarkable feat of winning 10 Australian Open crowns, yet he has also reached 10 US Open finals, winning just the four of those, and losing to first-time US Open winners Murray, Wawrinka, Medvedev and Nadal.
If we look at players who have emerged at Slams or produced the peak moment of their career, the US Open again plays a key role.
Players this century to win the only major title of their career at the US Open on the men’s side are Andy Roddick, Daniil Medvedev, Marin Cilic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Dominic Thiem. Whilst Andy Murray and Carlos Alcaraz both won the first of many titles in New York.
Remarkably, those five players who clinched their only Slams at the US Open since 2003 compare to none at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and two at Roland-Garros, which came in 2003 and 2004, so none in 21 years at any of the other Slams.
The likes of Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev have all appeared in US Open finals in recent times without having claimed a career major.
It is similar for the women, with Samantha Stosur, Emma Raducanu, Bianca Andreescu, Flavia Pennetta and Sloane Stephens all winning the only major (so far in some cases) of their career at Flushing Meadows. These five winners compare to three at Wimbledon and the Australian Open and just one at the French Open in the same time frame.
Naomi Osaka, Coco Gauff and Kim Clijsters launched successful careers in New York by winning their first Slam titles.
Others to make the final without having claimed a major title were Roberta Vinci in the all-Italian decider of 2015, Leylah Fernandez, KarolĂna PlĂšková, Jessica Pegula and Ons Jabeur.
So why is it that the US Open has become largely unpredictable? A few factors could be at play.
One being the hard court design of the US Open is considered to be the most neutral surface in the world, and thus brings more players into the equation.
Coming at the end of a long season can lead to increased fatigue, and players producing stronger results earlier in a season. Stefanos Tsitsipas is a classic example of a player whose fortunes contrast from one half of the year to the next. (51 wins at the Australian Open and French Open, compared to 15 at Wimbledon/US Open).
Variations in weather (a very humid event generally) and changes in the ball can also be legitimate reasons.
So who could be in the frame this year?
Could Ben Shelton or Jack Draper, who have the talent and the growing experience, be the ones to grab their moment?
In the women’s section, we could see young gun Mirra Andreeva break through, or Wimbledon finalist and comeback queen Amanda Anisimova could find her way through to claim the prize.
It is the tournament that throws up the unexpected. What will be served up in 2025?
