J Sinner vs C Alcaraz
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Games) Under 41.5 games (recorded at $1.93) for 0.5 units (Rated at $1.86)
The main bet from the semi final was Alcaraz to win outright, so I’m happy to take that into the final here at a nice price compared to the current market. Also happy to make a small addition here with total games under 41.5, a total which all three set results and potentially some four set results (like their Wimbledon match) can go under as well.
MEN’S OUTRIGHT MARKET
Betting Strategy
BACK: (MEN’S OUTRIGHT MARKET) Carlos Alcaraz to win tournament (recorded at $2.76) for 1.5 units (Rated at $2.34)
I don’t feel as though Carlos should be this long in the outright market. I think he wins here against Novak, but I have no strong desire to get involved in being against Novak with a large game handicap or with the total where it is currently set.
US OPEN OUTRIGHT PREVIEW AND TIPS
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Taylor Fritz (recorded at $32) for 0.5 units (Rated at $24.00)
BACK TO LAY – Don’t mind the early draw of Fritz compared to some of the other big names in the market. We saw the US Open throw up some surprises early last year (see Alcaraz losing to BVDZ, Djokovic losing to Popyrin), so I am happy to consider a back-to-lay of Fritz here.
HISTORICAL PROFILE BY DARREN PARKIN
The US Open is nearly upon us, as the tour descends on Flushing Meadows in New York City for the final major of the season.
Each of the four Slam events has its own special mystique about it, and the US Open, at times, can be known for a rock concert-type vibe and rowdy crowds. However, it is forging a different type of identity in recent years, and that is the most open of the four majors.
This century, 32 different players have won the US Open combined across the men’s and women’s draws, compared to 24 at the Australian Open, 26 at the French and 23 at Wimbledon.
It is a broad event that is becoming even more unpredictable, with six different individuals winning the last six instalments of both the women’s and men’s draws.
The last time six different men won any other major was at the French Open between 1994 and 1999.
For the women, Wimbledon has an active streak of nine different winners, but before that, you have to go back nearly half a century to find it at any of the four majors.
Never in the history of the sport has that happened at the same time on both the men’s and women’s draws at any major.
Over the last decade, nine different women have taken the 10 US Open titles, with only Naomi Osaka winning it twice during that tenure. 17 different women have occupied the 20 places in the final over that period, with only Osaka, Serena Williams and Sabalenka appearing in two US Open finals over the past decade.
On the men’s side, seven individuals (Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, Thiem, Alcaraz, Sinner and Wawrinka) have won the US Open in the last decade, compared to four, four and five at the other majors. 13 different men have occupied a place in the final at Flushing Meadows over that same journey.
Four-time champion Djokovic probably best encapsulates the unpredictable nature of the US Open.
He is lauded for his remarkable feat of winning 10 Australian Open crowns, yet he has also reached 10 US Open finals, winning just the four of those, and losing to first-time US Open winners Murray, Wawrinka, Medvedev and Nadal.
If we look at players who have emerged at Slams or produced the peak moment of their career, the US Open again plays a key role.
Players this century to win the only major title of their career at the US Open on the men’s side are Andy Roddick, Daniil Medvedev, Marin Cilic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Dominic Thiem. Whilst Andy Murray and Carlos Alcaraz both won the first of many titles in New York.
Remarkably, those five players who clinched their only Slams at the US Open since 2003 compare to none at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and two at Roland-Garros, which came in 2003 and 2004, so none in 21 years at any of the other Slams.
The likes of Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev have all appeared in US Open finals in recent times without having claimed a career major.
It is similar for the women, with Samantha Stosur, Emma Raducanu, Bianca Andreescu, Flavia Pennetta and Sloane Stephens all winning the only major (so far in some cases) of their career at Flushing Meadows. These five winners compare to three at Wimbledon and the Australian Open and just one at the French Open in the same time frame.
Naomi Osaka, Coco Gauff and Kim Clijsters launched successful careers in New York by winning their first Slam titles.
Others to make the final without having claimed a major title were Roberta Vinci in the all-Italian decider of 2015, Leylah Fernandez, KarolĂna PlĂšková, Jessica Pegula and Ons Jabeur.
So why is it that the US Open has become largely unpredictable? A few factors could be at play.
One being the hard court design of the US Open is considered to be the most neutral surface in the world, and thus brings more players into the equation.
Coming at the end of a long season can lead to increased fatigue, and players producing stronger results earlier in a season. Stefanos Tsitsipas is a classic example of a player whose fortunes contrast from one half of the year to the next. (51 wins at the Australian Open and French Open, compared to 15 at Wimbledon/US Open).
Variations in weather (a very humid event generally) and changes in the ball can also be legitimate reasons.
So who could be in the frame this year?
Could Ben Shelton or Jack Draper, who have the talent and the growing experience, be the ones to grab their moment?
In the women’s section, we could see young gun Mirra Andreeva break through, or Wimbledon finalist and comeback queen Amanda Anisimova could find her way through to claim the prize.
It is the tournament that throws up the unexpected. What will be served up in 2025?
