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EXPERT SOCCER TIPS: EPL

Bournemouth v Leicester

Betting Strategy

LAY: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $1.50)

Jamie Vardy won’t be available for the final game as he requested to finish his career at 500 games last week at home, so that removes the only goal threat Leicester have in their bag of tricks. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 6/6 Leicester away matches against middle-third teams and Over 3.5 goals in 4/6 Leicester such matches. Bournemouth have scored first in 9/16 home matches. With nothing to play for, you can make a case for goals, but without Vardy, Leicester will struggle. The average of a regular Premier League season is 2.7 to 3.0 goals per game. Data from the past 25 seasons show the final day is around 3.2 to 3.5 goals per match. The final day in 2022-23 season saw 35 goals across the 10 games. The past five games between these sides ended 0-1, 1-0, 2-1, 4-1 and 3-1. The past 12 home games for Bournemouth saw the Over 2.5 land just three times, and whilst it is 14/18 for Leicester away games, only three of the past six went over. The Over 2.5 is just $1.50 here and I am going to take it on, as I can’t see Leicester scoring and Bournemouth just want the season to end.

Fulham v Manchester City

Betting Strategy

LAY: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $1.60)

Manchester City were really good in their win over Bournemouth on Tuesday, and they didn’t let the disappointment of the FA Cup final defeat to Crystal Palace affect them. Omar Marmoush was excellent, they created lots of chances and defended strongly. City only need a point to secure a top-five finish and maintain their ever-present record in the Champions League since 2011 but, with the way Fulham play, they are in for a tough time at Craven Cottage. We should see goals here and also both teams should get on the score sheet. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 13/14 Fulham home matches against top-six teams and in 11/15 Man City away matches against middle-third teams. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 7/9 Fulham home matches against top-six teams. In the seven meetings since Fulham returned to the Premier League, City have won all seven by an aggregate of 21-5. The scores were 2-3, 0-4, 1-5, 1-2, 1-2, 0-3 and 0-2. The huge concern on goals here is the past four City away games were 0-0 at half time and ended 0-0, 2-0, 0-0 and 0-1. They have stopped scoring. The past three at home for Fulham ended 1-3, 1-2, 3-2, so plenty of goals there. City just need a draw, so I am laying the Over 2.5 at a short price.

Ipswich v West Ham

Betting Strategy

BACK: West Ham (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.20)

A final hurrah for Ipswich fans at home, before they sink back to the Championship. They have won only once at home all season, while West Ham have been woeful for weeks now and will be glad to see the back of this campaign too. Both sides just want the end now, and any result is possible here. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 7/11 West Ham away matches. Even against other bottom six sides, Ipswich have lost 4/5 home games. With very little interest in the game, apart from die-hard fans of both clubs, I can see West Ham coming away with a win in what has been a very disappointing season for both sides. Ipswich have lost 13/18 home games and 11 of the past 12, and West Ham beat Manchester United 2-0 in their past away game. They are the best option of two terrible teams.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

Betting Strategy

Lay: Liverpool (Match Odds) for 3 units (Rated at $1.43)

Champions versus the FA Cup winners, in a game which neither team really care about the result. The only real interest is in seeing if Mo Salah can score and break some Liverpool records. Liverpool have pretty much been on the beach since they secured their title at the end of April, while Palace left out several first-team players in their win over Wolves on Tuesday, with Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta only coming on for the last 10 minutes. The Head to Head is probably no help as this is not a normal game. It shows Liverpool winning just two of the past five meetings, with one loss and two draws. The past two at Anfield ended 0-1 and 1-1. Liverpool had won seven straight home games, before the 2-2 draw with Arsenal two weeks back. Palace beat Tottenham away, but failed to win any of the previous four away games. At the prices with nothing on the line, I have to take on Liverpool at a very short price.

Manchester United v Aston Villa

Betting Strategy

BACK: Aston Villa (Match Odds) for 3 units (Rated at $1.80)

I am not sure how much further Manchester United can sink, after one of their worst seasons in decades. To see Aston Villa odds on favourites, at Old Trafford is a sign of how far they have fallen. Villa of course, have everything to play for here, with a Champions League place on the line. Man Utd have conceded first in 9/11 home matches while Aston Villa have won 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 14/19 Aston Villa away matches. A Villa win would see them finish sixth at worst, but if Newcastle or Chelsea slip up, they would be in the Champions League. After a moral sapping defeat to Spurs on Wednesday, I am happy to take the $1.80 on a Villa win to complete the humiliation for Manchester United. Ruben Amorim just has not adapted his tactics for English football, and the club have gone backwards under his tenure. I expect a loss here to be his last game in charge.

Newcastle v Everton

Betting Strategy

LAY: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $1.60)

Newcastle at home should be a banker. However, there are serious doubts over Alexander Isak’s fitness which is a real worry. Added to that, Everton are always an awkward team to break down, and they also carry an attacking threat with Beto in such good form. Newcastle have won 9/11 home matches while Everton have lost 9/11 away matches against top-six teams. On those stats, you would wonder how Newcastle could lose. A win locks in Champions League football, a point won’t be enough if Chelsea and Aston Villa win. The Head to Head shows Newcastle have failed to win their past three, with scores of 0-0, 1-1 and 0-3. In the five meetings at St James’ Park in the past five seasons, the scores were 1-1, 1-0, 3-1, 2-1 and 1-2. I can see Everton getting a draw here, especially if Isak is out, and the price is brilliant for a side that has six draws in 18 away games, as that is 33% and a price of $3.00, and we can get $6.20 on Betfair. The problem of course, is Newcastle at home have drawn just two of 18 games. They have also won six straight at home, winning 2-0, 3-0, 5-0, 4-1, 2-1 and 4-3. That’s 20 goals scored and five conceded, so Everton will need to be at their best to get anything here. Only one of the past six Everton away games went Over 2.5 goals, so against a very nervy Newcastle side, I am happy to take that on.

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea

Betting Strategy

BACK: Draw (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $3.90)

Easily the game of the weekend and the one with the most riding on it. Forest have scored first in 10/15 home matches while Chelsea have lost 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. Chelsea have lost the first half in 7/11 away matches against top-half teams. That makes it surprising to see Chelsea favourites. Then when we look at the Head to Head and see Forest have just one win in the five meetings, we can see why. Scores of 1-1, 2-3, 1-0, 2-2 and 1-1, show the draw is a genuine chance here. This season at home, Forest have failed to win their past three, drawing 2-2 with a terrible Leicester side, causing the owner to walk onto the pitch to remonstrate with the manager at the end of the match. He blew up because he saw the multi millions of £ they will miss out on if they fail to make the Champions League blowing away in the wind. For them to make it now, they need to win this, and hope that one of Newcastle and Aston Villa do not win. Their big problem of course, is Chelsea are just as desperate for the three points. Forest are imploding with the recent home games against Leicester, Brentford and Everton, and they only have one point to show for them. They should be home and hosed already. The only two meetings at the City ground, were a 3-2 win to Chelsea and a 1-1 draw. This could well end in the result neither team want, a draw.

Southampton v Arsenal

Betting Strategy

BACK: No (Both Teams to Score) for 2 units (Rated at $2.10)

One last thumping for Southampton before the axe falls? They have lost 11/13 home matches while Arsenal have won 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Arsenal know their Champions League position is safe, and will be feeling sick knowing their main rivals won a trophy and they got a duck egg, despite having by far the better season. Incredibly, Arsenal have won just one of the past four meetings, which was a 3-1 win in London this season. Before that, it was 3-3, 1-1 and 0-1. In the past nine meetings between the sides, Saints have one win, four draws and four losses. They have just one home win this season, a 1-0 win against Everton. Arsenal have lost just two games away from home, but have four draws in their past five away from the Emirates. I can’t see Southampton scoring here, so in a totally meaningless game, I will back No in the Both Teams to Score market.

Tottenham v Brighton

Betting Strategy

BACK: Over 3.5 goals (Under/Over 3.5 goals) for 3 units (Rated at $1.90)

Spurs are a huge price here, at $4.50, and it is uncertain how the Europa League win hangover will affect them. Ange Postecoglou will want to finish the season with a win in front of the home fans, in what will likely be his farewell appearance, as with Champions League football, and over £100 million coming in, Levy will surely throw the baby out with the bathwater and get a new man in. It took Sir Alex Ferguson five years to win a trophy at Manchester United, and then he didn’t stop winning them for 20 years. These days, no manager gets five years. They are lucky to get five months before being replaced. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 11/14 Brighton away matches and Over 3.5 goals in 12/18 Brighton away matches against bottom-six teams. Spurs have conceded first in 10/12 home matches against top-half teams. As there is so much uncertainty around the team Spurs will put on the park, the best bet is to look at goals. Spurs had just 27% possession against Manchester United in the final, and they will have very heavy legs after that defensive effort. I am going with the Over 3.5 goals at $1.90 as the Over 2.5 is just $1.36 and the Over 4.5 is $3.00, but we probably won’t see five goals.

Wolves v Brentford

Betting Strategy

BACK: Brentford (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.40)

A Brentford win, and a loss for Brighton would see Brentford take eighth place and European football next season. Wolves have nothing on the line here, and will be happy to see the back of this season. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 13/20 Wolves home matches and in 7/8 Brentford away matches against middle-third teams, so goals are on the cards. The past three meetings ended 3-5, 0-2 and 4-1, so both teams will have a real crack in this. The past three home games for Wolves ended 0-2, 3-0 and 4-2, whilst Brentford away, have found their winning formula again, winning 7/9 away from home. Wolves have won three of their past four at home. The Over 2.5 should be around $1.65 and it is just $1.56 so there is no value and we have to pass on that one. Wolves were in great form at home, but I will back Brentford to get the job done here. Wolves were on a six game winning streak, but have lost three straight now, while Brentford have lost just one game away from home since Christmas. A 0-1 loss to Newcastle.

EPL TIPS

The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.

The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia’s largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.

To ensure you capitalise on the 2023/24 EPL season, be sure to follow Betfair’s latest updated expert EPL tips across the entire season. Betfair’s analysts provide head-to-head selections, total goals picks, goal scorer tips, advice on which individual players we think will play well, game previews, analysis plus much more!

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EPL Title:

2023/24: Manchester City

2022/23: Manchester City

2021/22 : Manchester City

2020/21: Manchester City

2019/20: Liverpool

2018/19: Manchester City

2017/18: Manchester City

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