EXPERT SOCCER TIPS: EPL

Liverpool v Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back: Over 3.5 goals (Under/Over 3.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $2.10)

The past six meetings with Liverpool have been horrendous for Bournemouth, conceding 21 goals and scoring just two. The past three meetings were 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0, and a similar outcome can be expected here, especially at Anfield, where they are unbeaten in 17 matches since the shock loss to Nottingham Forest last September. They have not lost on opening day since 2012, and that is a Premier League record, currently at 12 games. Bournemouth are unbeaten in seven games on opening day, and I can’t see that run continuing, as they have taken just one point in the past 24 on offer at Anfield. It will be an emotional day at Anfield after the loss of Diogo Jota, which will still be on the minds of the players and fans. I think the new look Liverpool attack will cause chaos for the Bournemouth defence and I see at least four goals in this opening game. Get on the Over 3.5 goals market.

Tony Hargraves

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Aston Villa v Newcastle

Betting Strategy

Back: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 4 units (Rated at $1.70)

Aston Villa have won 9/13 home matches while Newcastle have lost 10/12 away matches against top-six teams. They really do struggle away from home, and with the conflict over want away striker Alexander Isak won’t help the situation here. In the past 10 meetings, Newcastle have won five, yet they have all been in the past seven matches. The most recent meeting, which was at Villa Park last season, ended 4-1 to Villa. With Newcastle having so much upheaval, on and off the pitch, I can see Villa taking this opening day win. Nine of the 10 meetings between the sides had a first half goal, and the past six matches all went Over 2.5 goals. The scores were 4-1, 0-3, 1-3, 1-5, 3-0 and 0-4. The Over 2.5 looks the best bet as we need to learn a few things about both sides before we can be certain about them. How this Newcastle side will perform away, is a bit of a guess right now. But there will be three goals.

Tony Hargraves

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Brighton vs Fulham

Betting Strategy

Back: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 3 units (Rated at $1.80)

I was considering backing Brighton for the win, but I see they have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against middle third teams, and that is enough to scare me off. Fulham are a decent side, with goals in them, and there have been Over 2.5 goals in 6/8 Fulham away matches against top-half teams. Added to that, Brighton have won just one of the past eight meetings, although it was the most recent one, a 2-1 home win. Before that, there were four losses and three draws. The past three meetings have all gone Over 2.5 goals, and two of them had two goals by half time. Seven of the past eight Brighton home games went Over 2.5 and the one that didn’t was 1-1 against Newcastle. Six of the past eight Fulham away games also went over, so I think that is a very safe bet here.

Tony Hargraves

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Sunderland vs West Ham

Betting Strategy

Back: Under 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $2.00)

It is a huge leap from the Championship to the Premier League, and I suspect Sunderland will struggle. Last season, they had 12 wins, seven draws and just four losses at home, and three of those four losses were the last three home games. The last meeting was April 2017, so there is no head to head to go on here. I give West Ham a 40% chance of winning (2.50 on Betfair) and Sunderland 30% (3.33 on Betfair) but I can’t predict a winner until I see Sunderland play a few games. Sunderland will certainly have a defensive mindset and will set up accordingly, and their recent goal average is 0.3 at home, and West Ham are 1.80 away. I could go for a West Ham win, as they have won 6/8 away matches against promoted sides, but I think the best bet on opening day is to go with Under 2.5 goals, as it could well be a low scoring tight match, which neither side will want to lose. Both would be happy to start the season with a point.

Tony Hargraves

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Tottenham vs Burnley

Betting Strategy

BACK: Under 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 1 unit (Rated at $2.30)

A new era for Spurs with both Ange Postecoglou and captain Son leaving the club, and experiencing the high of a Europa Cup win and the low of a 17th place all at the same time. They could not ask for an easier start to this season. They face a Burnley side that has come up from the Championship, and Spurs have won five of the past six meetings by an aggregate of 13-4. The past three at home for Spurs against Burnley ended 2-1, 1-0 and 4-0. They will be far better defensively under the new manager, and should have won the Super Cup midweek, after leading PSG (probably the best side in the world right now) 2-0 after 85 minutes, yet conceded two very late goals and then lost on penalties. That is typical Spurs. Burnley are no PSG, but they are also very good defensively. I am going to keep it small here, and will go with Under 2.5 goals.

Tony Hargraves

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Wolves vs Manchester City

Betting Strategy

Back: YES (Both Teams to Score) for 2 units (Rated at $1.90)

This should be a routine win for Manchester City. Wolves have lost 12/17 home matches against top-six teams while Man City have won 14/17 away matches against bottom-six teams. In the last 10 meetings, Wolves have one win and nine losses, so there is no value in backing Manchester City to win. Wolves should score at home, and they are almost certain to concede, so I am looking at Both Teams to Score for this one. City are still missing Rodri and he won’t be back until late September at least, so I do see them conceding. Eight of the 10 most recent meetings went Over 2.5 goals. That is priced at $1.70, so I will take the better price of $1.90 for Both Teams to Score.

Tony Hargraves

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Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

Betting Strategy

BACK: YES (Both Teams to Score) for 2 units (Rated at $1.80)

Chelsea open their campaign with a cracking London derby against Crystal Palace at the Bridge on Sunday. They aim to build on their FIFA Club World Cup success, beating PSG 3-0, and wins over Bayer Leverkusen and AC Milan, and are on a seven game winning streak. They lost just twice at home last season, with 12 wins and five draws. Crystal Palace away from home had a fair season, with seven wins, seven draws and five losses. I can see them getting a draw here after beating Liverpool in the Community Shield last weekend. I think the Both Teams to Score and the Over 2.5 goals market will both be around the same price, and will probably both land. Just in case it ends 1-1, I will go with the Both Teams to Score here and back Yes.

Tony Hargraves

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Forest vs Brentford

Betting Strategy

BACK: Nottingham Forest (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.20)

I think Forest should win here for two main reasons. Firstly they lost just five of 19 home games last season, although three of them were in the last four home games for the season, and secondly, because Brentford have just lost their manager to Tottenham. Away last season, Brentford failed to win any of their first nine games, losing seven of them. However, they then went on a five game winning streak (away) and won seven of their last 10 away. But all that momentum is gone now, and the new man has to get his side settled into a new pattern and a different style of play. That takes time. Forest at home scored exactly one goal in nine of their home games last season, and no goals in five of them. So that’s just nine home goals in 14 home games. Not a great record by any stretch. We could easily get on the Under 2.5 goals here, or No in the Both Teams to Score market, but I see a win for Forest, either 1-0 or 2-0.

Tony Hargraves

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Manchester United vs Arsenal

Betting Strategy

BACK: Arsenal (Match Odds) for 3 units (Rated at $2.10)

The biggest game of opening weekend for sure. The entire Manchester United fanbase, players, managers, all the way down to the catering staff were glad to see the back of last season. I genuinely can’t believe we are being offered $2.10 on Betfair for Arsenal to win here. They have beaten United in four of the last five meetings, with the most recent ending 1-1. Both teams have scored in six of the past eight meetings, so expect that to land again, along with Over 2.5 goals. I just think Arsenal will have too much firepower for a still shellshocked Manchester United side, especially after the Europa League loss to Spurs. It could well end in a draw, but I am going with an Arsenal win to kick off their season. If they are any hope of winning the league this season, they surely have to beat the side that finished 18th last season.

Tony Hargraves

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Leeds vs Everton

Betting Strategy

LAY: Leeds (Match Odds) for 1 unit (Rated at $2.60)

What a great trade the Premier League made swapping Southampton for Leeds. It’s great to have Leeds back and they will cause trouble for a lot of teams. They were last in the Premier League in season 22/23 so this side has no resemblance to that one. Everton ended last season winning three of their last four away games, and the return of David Moyes has transformed the side. Moyes has overseen nine away games since his return, and won five, with two draws and two losses. He will have this marked down as a key game and one they should win, given Leeds are back in the big time and may take time to settle. The market, surprisingly has Leeds favourite at home, at $2.60 and Everton are $3.10 with the draw $3.40. It is tempting to back Everton at $3.10 but they do love a draw, so I am going to keep the draw onside and lay Leeds at home.

Tony Hargraves

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EPL TIPS