EXPERT SOCCER TIPS: EPL

Chelsea v Fulham

Betting Strategy

Back: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $1.80)

On paper, this is a straight forward home win. Chelsea have won 10/13 home matches against middle-third teams while Fulham have lost 13/19 away matches against top-six teams. Chelsea have have won three of the past four meetings over the past two seasons, but the two games at Stamford Bridge ended 1-2 and 1-0, so this could be a tricky fixture. Fulham have won just one of their past seven away games, but did draw both games so far this season, 1-1 away at Brighton and 1-1 at home to Manchester United. Chelsea drew 0-0 in their first home game against Crystal Palace, but clicked into gear against a woeful West Ham, winning 5-1. Chelsea are just $1.59 to win and the Over 2.5 is much better value at $1.80 as this game should see at least three goals.

Tony Hargraves

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Manchester United vs Burnley

Betting Strategy

Lay: Manchester United (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $1.40)

A real banana skin is this for Manchester United. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 9/11 home matches against promoted teams. There is no way they should be $1.38 to win though, and Burnley beat fellow promoted side Sunderland 2-0 last week so will be confident of a good showing. They have not played Manchester United since season 23/24 and have not won in six meetings, with two draws and four losses. The past three meetings were 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1, so there may not be a lot of goals either. United have won just three of their past 13 home games, and the past five home matches had half time scores of 0-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-0 so at $1.38 they are worth a lay for sure. They are in a very deep hole and their season might even be defined by the outcome here.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Sunderland vs Brentford

Betting Strategy

Back: Sunderland (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $3.00)

Sunderland started life back in the Premier League with a 3-0 home win against West Ham. Then they got done over by Burnley away. Back at the Stadium of Light against a Brentford side with a new manager, they have a real shot at another win. Brentford have won just two of their past six away games, and in their only away match this season, lost 1-3 to Nottingham Forest. Obviously it is very early days, but Sunderland will be very keen to get some early season points in the bag to take any relegation pressure off the table. With a raucous home crowd, they could do the business here at a nice price.

Tony Hargraves

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Tottenham vs Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back: Over 3.5 goals (Under/Over 3.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $2.50)

You can only go with a Spurs win here after two wins, and two clean sheets in two games. To go to Manchester City and win to nil, makes Bournemouth at home look a huge drop in class. But it is Spurs, and they well known for beating teams like Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal, and then losing to Fulham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. The goals look a far safer option. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 14/18 Spurs home matches and in 8/9 Bournemouth away matches against top-six teams. Bournemouth looked excellent away at Liverpool despite losing 4-2, and I can see a similar outcome here, and six goals would be no shock. The Head to Head past six had scores of 2-2, 0-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-3 and 3-2. So four of those six games had four or five goals. I am going with at least four goals here and will jump on the Over 3.5 goals market.

Tony Hargraves

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Wolves vs Everton

Betting Strategy

Lay: Draw (Match odds) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.40)

Wolves are 0-2 after two games and this won’t be easy either. They have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-half teams while Everton have scored first in 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. David Moyes has improved Everton massively, but the fact remains they have won once at Molineux in their past eight attempts. They have five losses and one draw. Wolves will fancy this. They only lost 1-0 away to Bournemouth last week, and Everton are on par with them class wise. Everton somehow lost away to Leeds 1-0, but finished last season with two away wins against Newcastle and Fulham. Everton are usually the draw specialists, but have not drawn any of their past six away games, and Wolves have drawn just three of their past 20 at home. There will be a winner, so I am laying the draw. If you want a bit of cover, maybe back 1-1 and 2-2 in the Correct Score market, but we should be fine.

Tony Hargraves

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Leeds vs Newcastle

Betting Strategy

Back: Over 4.5 goals (Under/Over 4.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $6.00)

This would have been game of the round had it not been for Liverpool v Arsenal. This will be a cracker of a game, and it looks tricky on paper for Leeds. Newcastle have won 9/11 away matches against promoted teams, and they played brilliantly against Liverpool on Monday night and almost pulled off a miracle. They have not met since season 22/23 but in the six meetings they had, five were a draw at half time and three ended that way, with one Leeds win and two Newcastle wins. We need to see more of Leeds, but the way they play, and the way Newcastle will play, I am going big on goals here and will look at us seeing at least five. This is a game not to be missed. Leeds got pumped 5-0 by Arsenal last week and Newcastle went down 3-2 to Newcastle. That’s 10 goals in their two matches, and we only need five here. Leeds also lost to Sheffield Wednesday in the EFL Cup, so will be looking for a far better performance here.

Tony Hargraves

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Brighton vs Manchester City

Betting Strategy

BACK: Manchester City (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $1.80)

Surely Manchester City have to bounce back this week after their ambush by Spurs. They have won 14/17 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/8 such matches. But are Brighton a bottom six team? Not really, but they are third from bottom after two games, with a draw and a loss. They drew at home to Fulham and lost to Everton away, and this City side is bound to click after that loss. They beat Wolves 4-0 away from home on opening day, and this could be a similar result. City did lose here last season (1-2) but won 4-0 the season before. Two years before that they won 4-1, so after a loss last year, they are due to hand out another four goal belting.

Tony Hargraves

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Nottingham Forest vs West Ham

Betting Strategy

BACK: Nottingham Forest (Match Odds) for 2 unit (Rated at $1.75)

I realise this is a huge call, but I am going to make it after two games. I think West Ham will be relegated. They play Forest, then Spurs, Crystal Palace, Everton and Arsenal, and I can’t see them winning even one of those games. Graham Potter has run out of ideas already. They haven’t strengthened their squad, and were poor last year. They lost 3-2 to Wolves in the EFL cup, and that’s three straight losses now. Even Jarrod Bowen nearly jumped the fence after being confronted by outraged fans, only to be pulled back by stewards and teammates. It’s a debacle. West Ham have lost 14/19 away matches against top-six teams. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 9/11 West Ham away matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head shows three straight Forest wins, 2-1, 3-0 and 2-0. I can only be on a home win, and $1.70 looks better than the $1.50 I expected.

Tony Hargraves

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Liverpool vs Arsenal

Betting Strategy

Lay: Liverpool (Match Odds) for 1 unit (Rated at $2.30)

What a game so early in the season! Liverpool looked shaky against Newcastle and only their class got them home with a 100th minute winner. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 10/13 Liverpool home matches and Arsenal have drawn 6/8 away matches against top-six teams. Arsenal will really want to make a statement here, and winning this would set them up for a real crack at the title. The confidence they would take, from a win at Anfield, would be immeasurable. In the Head to Head Liverpool had won four straight and then it all changed. They have not beaten Arsenal in six meetings since. Four draws and two losses. The scores were 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 1-1, 2-2 and 2-3. Arsenal just go to Anfield and set up to not lose now. They will do so again. The last Liverpool win here was that 4-0 thrashing in season 21/22 and that was that. Arsenal were humiliated and have done all they can to ensure there is not a repeat. Liverpool conceded twice against Bournemouth in their opening home game, and after conceding two goals at Anfield and two away at Newcastle, Arsenal are set to pounce before the Premiers get warmed up for the season. Arsenal beat Manchester United 1-0 and West Ham 5-0, and as they have not conceded, I am banking on them not losing again. I will lay Liverpool and keep the draw onside. It will be a rip snorter of a game. Don’t miss it.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

Betting Strategy

BACK: Over 2.5 goals (Under/Over 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $2.00)

A very tough game to finish match week three. Villa are even money and that looks a very shaky price. Neither side has won a game yet, and Palace have two draws and Villa have a draw and a loss. The 0-0 draw with Newcastle would still be 0-0 if they were still playing it was that bad. Then to lose 1-0 to Brentford left them with no goals after two games. That’s very unlike Aston Villa. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 7/12 Villa home matches against middle-third teams and Over 2.5 goals in 9/15 home matches. So what’s gone wrong? The Head to Head shows two Villa wins in the past three with scores of 4-1, 2-2 and 5-0. Before that was 1-3, so there are usually goals in this fixture. There were nine in the two meetings last season. Rather than trust Villa with the win at even money, we can get the same price for Over 2.5 goals. If history is anything to go by, we might be paid before half time. Get on the overs.

Tony Hargraves

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EPL TIPS