EXPERT SOCCER TIPS: EPL

Brentford v Manchester United

Betting Strategy

BACK: Over 3.5 Goals (Under/Over 3.5 goals) for 3 units (Rated at $2.60)

It’s not been a great start for either side, but United have definitely shown more promise. It’s a tricky game though that will have goals. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 11/18 Brentford home matches. Man Utd have conceded first in 7/10 away matches. That last stat makes it hard to back Manchester United as they are likely to go behind early. But if we look at goals, we don’t mind which side scores first. The past three meetings confirms the dilemma, with a win, draw and loss for each side. Brentford won the last meeting, 4-3 and they lost 1-2 at Old Trafford. The home game before that was a 1-1 draw so any outcome is likely. Six of the eight Head to Head meetings went Over 2.5 goals and in five games this season, Brentford fixtures had 4,4,3,1,and 4 goals. The past three Manchester United games ended 2-1, 0-3, and 3-2, so I will go with the Over 3.5 goals here at $2.60

Tony Hargraves

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Chelsea v Brighton

Betting Strategy

BACK: Chelsea (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $1.85)

This really should be a home win. Chelsea have won 11/14 home matches against middle-third teams while Brighton have lost 12/17 away matches against top-six teams. Chelsea have won the first half in 10/13 home matches against middle-third teams, and when they lead at half time, they usually finish the business. The Head to Head shows them with three wins in the past four meetings, however, they lost the most recent meeting 0-3. The past games were 0-3, 4-2, 2-1, 3-2, 1-2 and 1-4, so there are usually goals and rarely a draw. It’s been 3, 6, 3, 5, 3, 5 goals between them, which is why the Over 2.5 goals is just $1.55. Chelsea would be better value at $1.85. Chelsea have one win from two home games so far, and the other game was a 0-0 draw with Palace. Brighton have two losses away from home, 1-2 to Bournemouth and 0-2 to Everton. Chelsea for the win here, in a match between two teams yet to find their mojo.

Tony Hargraves

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Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Betting Strategy

Lay: Liverpool (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.00)

Liverpool look a great price at even money to win at Crystal Palace. There are however, a few issues and the price makes sense once you see them. Palace have scored first in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have drawn 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. That makes backing them tough if they are likely to concede first. Looking at the Head to Head, Liverpool have won just two of the past six games, with three draws and one loss. Liverpool were leading at half time in just one of those six games, making them very difficult to back. They have won their first five games of the season, however, Crystal Palace are yet to lose, with two wins and three draws so far. They sit in fifth place, and along with Liverpool, are the only unbeaten sides in the Premier League this season. I can see them getting a draw here, and we can either back Both Teams to Score (Yes) or lay Liverpool. Palace have conceded just two goals this season with three clean sheets, whereas Liverpool have conceded five goals. Palace have two 0-0 draws, so I will go with the lay rather than both teams scoring.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Betting Strategy

Lay: Liverpool (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.00)

Liverpool look a great price at even money to win at Crystal Palace. There are however, a few issues and the price makes sense once you see them. Palace have scored first in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have drawn 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. That makes backing them tough if they are likely to concede first. Looking at the Head to Head, Liverpool have won just two of the past six games, with three draws and one loss. Liverpool were leading at half time in just one of those six games, making them very difficult to back. They have won their first five games of the season, however, Crystal Palace are yet to lose, with two wins and three draws so far. They sit in fifth place, and along with Liverpool, are the only unbeaten sides in the Premier League this season. I can see them getting a draw here, and we can either back Both Teams to Score (Yes) or lay Liverpool. Palace have conceded just two goals this season with three clean sheets, whereas Liverpool have conceded five goals. Palace have two 0-0 draws, so I will go with the lay rather than both teams scoring.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Leeds v Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back: Bournemouth (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.50)

Leeds start has been fair if not amazing. Two wins, two losses and a draw has them in 12th place and going nicely enough. Bournemouth will be a challenge, as they have three wins, one draw and just one loss. The only two recent meetings were in season 2022/23, with scores of 1-4 and 4-3, so both had a stack of goals. The goals are not flying in Bournemouth games this season, with scores of 0-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-4. Leeds are hit and miss, with scores of 3-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-5 and 1-0. Bournemouth have scored in four games and Leeds just two, so I am siding with an away win here and will get on Bournemouth to continue the good run.

Tony Hargraves

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Manchester City v Burnley

Betting Strategy

BACK: No (Both Teams to Score) for 3 units (Rated at $1.80)

This will be a home win no doubt. Burnley punch above their weight, and have a win a draw and three losses so far, but City are in a different class. Man City have won 10/10 home matches against promoted teams, and that won’t change here. City have won the past six meetings, by an aggregate of 17-1, so this could be a long day for Burnley. I can’t see Burnley scoring. At least it isn’t a long drive home for them.

Tony Hargraves

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Nottingham Forest v Sunderland

Betting Strategy

BACK: Yes (Both Teams to Score) for 2 units (Rated at $1.60)

I think our best option here is goals. With Big Ange at the helm, there are usually a few hitting the net at either end. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 6/8 Forest home matches against promoted teams. They drew 1-1 against Burnley and lost 0-3 to Arsenal and West Ham in the two before that. Sunderland are coming off 1-1 and 0-0 draws against Villa and Palace. The choices here are clearly yes in the Both Teams to Score market and Over 2.5 goals. The BTTS is $1.95 and the Over 2.5 is $2.10 so that’s where we can go for this one. We need to see a few more games for Forest under Ange and just a few more Sunderland games to see if there is improvement. Forest should win, but we can’t trust them yet as they are only two games into a totally new system, which is diametrically opposite of what they have been doing for a long time.

Tony Hargraves

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Tottenham v Wolves

Betting Strategy

BACK: No (Both Teams to Score) for 2 units (Rated at $2.10)

This should be a home win, as Spurs have won 16/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Wolves have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. Wolves have lost 5/5 this season and will be relegated with West Ham and one other side, yet to be determined. In fact, Wolves have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head tells a totally different story, with Wolves winning four of the past five meetings. The other game was a draw. The scores (Spurs first) were 2-4, 2-2, 1-2, 1-2 and 0-1. Wolves were doing a lot better in those times and Spurs were struggling. Under the new manager, Spurs have scored in 4/5 games and conceded in just two games, with three clean sheets. They are 10-3 for goals scored/conceded and Wolves are 3-12 so far and have failed to score three times. I am going with Both Teams to Score (No) in this one as I don’t see Spurs conceding to this Wolves side.

Tony Hargraves

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Aston Villa v Fulham

Betting Strategy

LAY: Aston Villa (Match Odds) for 2 unit (Rated at $2.40)

The stats say Aston Villa have won 6/8 home matches against top-half teams while Fulham have conceded first in 7/10 away matches. That does not reflect what we have seen this season. There are serious issues at Aston Villa and no obvious reason for them or how to fix them. The main one is, they can’t score. They should relish this match up, as they have won 7/8 meetings in the Head to Head with Fulham. They have outscored them 16-7 in those games. They have won five straight. I have zero confidence they can make it six. Six of those eight games went Over 2.5 goals, but I can’t see this game doing that, unless Fulham get all three goals (possible). Both scored in 4/8 and again, I don’t see that happening. I can see it ending in a draw, or a Fulham win, but I cannot see a home win, when Fulham have scored in 4/5 games this season, with six goals and Aston Villa have four blanks and just one goal in five games. No, they are in big trouble and might soon part ways with their manager. Laying the Villa.

Tony Hargraves

lay

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Newcastle v Arsenal

Betting Strategy

Back: Under 2.5 Goals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $1.85)

Newcastle are still out of sorts and not settled into their rhythm yet. They are down in 13th position and quickly losing touch with the top four. One win in five games is not the form to get you into a Champions League place, so things need to change quickly. I am not so sure it will be this week. Arsenal are trying to hold onto Liverpool, and are already five points behind them on 10, tied with Spurs and Bournemouth. As both of those sides are likely to win this weekend, they need three points here, after only taking a point from the City game. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 12/15 Newcastle home matches and Over 3.5 goals in 5/10 Newcastle home matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head shows Newcastle LWLWL, but the very telling stat from the 10 meetings, shows us in only one game did both teams score. Last season, both teams won the home game 1-0. The season before it was 1-4 and 1-0, again both home teams winning. In 22/23, Newcastle lost 0-2 at home and drew 0-0 away. So they are tight games. I am going with another very tight game, and will back Under 2.5 goals.

Tony Hargraves

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Everton vs West Ham

Betting Strategy

BACK: Under 2.5 Goals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $2.00)

I suspect this will be the last game for Graham Potter. A loss to Everton and the owners will have to act. Nuno should be the man to replace him. Everton have won the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while West Ham have conceded first in 10/20 away matches. Everton have won 9/13 home matches against bottom-six teams. The Head to Head shows two draws last season, 1-1 and 0-0. The year before Everton lost 1-3 at home and won 1-0 away. Five of the past six meetings were 0-0 at half time, so I don’t expect the keepers to be too busy. This season, three of the five West Ham games were 0-0 at half time, as were two of the five Everton games. West Ham have four losses and one win this season, and I have them nailed on for relegation unless they change manager before Halloween. Everton have not started great with two wins, two losses and a draw. I can’t take them at $1.85 here, but we can get on Under 2.5 goals at $2.00.

Tony Hargraves

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EPL TIPS