EXPERT TIPS: US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
RECENT MARKET MOVES
Money has hit hard for Kamala Harris over the last 72 hours with Donald Trump out from a low of $1.45 midweek to around the $1.80 mark. Driven by early voting trends, the highly respected Selzer Poll in Iowa and increasingly desperate messaging from Republicans around electoral fraud in key battleground states has seen a huge surge of wagering support for Harris over the last three days. Harris is currently into $2.24 with all the momentum.
BETFAIR ELECTION UPDATE (ELECTION DAY)
After a huge rally for Kamala Harris across the weekend, Donald Trump has firmed from $1.80 to $1.62 to reclaim the Presidency over the last 48 hours of the election. The move comes in the face of Nate Silver’s final simulations that gives Harris a razor-thin edge.
With Election Night upon us, here is what to watch for:
Turnout
At a base level, the higher the turnout, the better the result is likely to be for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. This is not entirely true though. Look for increased turnout in urban areas and areas with disproportionately large African American populations to boost confidence in Harris. Look for increases in rural and suburban counties as a suggestion Trump will win.
Polls Closing
Polls close across the US at different times. First polls close at 11am Australian Eastern Daylight time including Georgia. Others close 30 minutes later including North Carolina. Sixteen states close at midday including key state Pennsylvania. Michigan closes at 1pm Nevada at 2pm. California closes at 3pm while Hawaii closes at 4pm.
Exit Polls
Look for signs in exit polls. Look for Democrats who have switched to Trump (or vice versa) or non-voters who have turned out this time. Anger as a reason for voting will usually lead to support for Trump. Fear will favour Harris.
Jill Stein
Jill Stein, the Greens candidate, is going to have a huge impact on the election outcome. The more her vote increases, the more she is likely to steal votes from Kamala Harris. Michigan, in particular, is well worth watching.
Georgia
Georgia is the first swing state to close its polls. The Democrats were surprise winners of Georgia in 2020, the first time the state had gone blue since 1992. The counties to watch include Washington and Baldwin counties, that slightly went to Biden in 2020, and Fayette County, in the Atlanta suburbs, has seen a huge influx of college educated voters. Trump won Fayette County by 19 in 2016 and 7 in 2020 but Harris will need to go close to winning to claim Georgia.
North Carolina
Trump is a firm favourite to claim North Carolina but the big watch here will be the turnout of African-American voters that will dictate the state. Keep an eye on Mecklenburg and Wake Counties to garner the enthusiasm for Harris as turnout has typically been low in the two blue counties. Nash County is a bellwether county with the winner of it claiming the state at the last three elections.
Michigan and Wisconsin
The ‘Blue Wall’ has voted together since 1992 so both will be watched closely as not only battleground states within themselves but as part of a greater picture. Muskegon County in Michigan has seen Democrat support fall but is viewed as a good guide for how working class women view Harris. Saginaw County was narrowly claimed by Biden last election but is a view of working class whites on Trump. Harris needs to win big i Dane and Milwaukee Counties if she is to take Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is the most important battleground state and the winner of the state will almost certainly claim the presidency. Bucks County is one to watch. It is a white working class county that has only recently seen voter registration flip to the GOP. It is a seat that will give indicators as to how Harris resonates with white working class voters. Cumberland County has been tracking for improved Democratic results and Harris will need a good turnout. Northampton County has been a bellwether that has voted for the President all but three times over the last century and has a large hispanic population. Berks County is another with a large hispanic population.
Nevada and Arizona
Maricopa County in Arizona and Washoe County in Nevada will be the key counties to watch in the Western battleground states. Maricopa was close last time and was a central hub for claims of voter fraud after it went to Biden by 2.2 points. Harris needs to outperform in Washoe County with Clark County expected to go heavily in favour of Trump.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Democrats to Win Iowa @ $3.25 or Larger
The Republicans remains firm favourites to retain Iowa with few considering the state to be in play but following the recent Selzer poll in Iowa and given it has been 80 years since Iowans have gone back-to-back without voting for the President, the Dems are over the odds and worth a small play.
BACK: Democrats To Win Pennsylvania @ $1.55 or Larger
No idea how the Democrats are pick ‘em/marginal underdogs in Pennsylvania. All early indicators suggest the Democrats are over-indexing in the state. Harris cannot be President if she does not win the state. The market seems off-kilter with early data.
BACK: Democrats To Win Wisconsin @ $1.35 or Larger
Wisconsin is the safest state in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ and the most likely to align with the recent Iowa poll. It is stunning that the Democrats aren’t shorter to win the state.
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2024
US Election Betting: Understanding the Odds and Tips
The United States’ presidential election is one of the most significant political events in the world. Every four years, millions of people from around the globe tune in to watch the process unfold. But it’s not just about politics; it’s also about betting. With so much at stake, US Election Betting is becoming increasingly popular. In this article, we will discuss everything you need to know about US Election Betting, including the odds, tips, and a brief history of each of the top candidates: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Kamala Harris.
Understanding US Election Betting on Betfair
US Election Betting with Betfair is a type of political betting that allows people to place bets on who they believe will win the presidential election. Not only this, but bettors can also place wagers on the winning political party, the popular vote winner, party of the popular vote winner, gender of election winner, who the Democratic & Republican nominee will be for President & Vice President, and if Ron DeSantis will run in 2024.
A Brief History of the Top Candidates
Joe Biden: Joe Biden is the current President of the United States and served as Vice President under Barack Obama. Biden was a senator for Delaware for over 30 years and has a long history of public service. In 2020, Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and went on to defeat incumbent Donald Trump in the general election.
Donald Trump: Donald Trump is a businessman and former television personality who served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump was the Republican nominee for President in 2016 and won the election, defeating Hillary Clinton. Trump is known for his controversial policies and actions while in office, including his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his impeachment by the House of Representatives in 2019.
Ron DeSantis: Ron DeSantis is the current Governor of Florida and a rising candidate in the Republican Party. DeSantis served in the US House of Representatives from 2013 to 2018 and was elected Governor of Florida in 2018. DeSantis is known for his conservative policies and close relationship with former President Trump.
Kamala Harris: Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States and the first woman, person of colour, and person of South Asian descent to hold the position. Harris served as Attorney General of California from 2011 to 2017 and was elected to the US Senate in 2016. In 2020, she was selected as Joe Biden’s running mate and was elected Vice President.
Why Betfair is the Best Wagering Platform for the 2024 US Presidential Election
Betfair is a leading online betting Exchange that allows users to bet against each other on sporting events, political outcomes, and more. With over 20 years of experience in the industry, Betfair has earned a reputation as the most reliable and trustworthy platform for sports and political betting.
One of the reasons Betfair is the best wagering platform for the 2024 US Presidential Election is its competitive odds. The platform offers some of the best odds in the industry, which can significantly increase your potential winnings.
Another reason to choose Betfair is its user-friendly platform. The website is easy to navigate, and placing bets is simple and straightforward. Additionally, Betfair offers a mobile app, allowing users to place bets from anywhere at any time.
Betfair also offers a wide range of US Election Betting markets, including the winner of the presidential election, the winning political party, and who the Democratic & Republican nominee will be. With so many options, you can find the market that best suits your betting strategy.
Conclusion
Betfair is here to provide the punter with the latest and most reliable information regarding the 2024 US Presidential Election. Our US Politics expert is an industry leader in politics wagering, with a wealth of knowledge for the US Political system. If you’re looking to place a bet on the 2024 US Election, then there really is no other place to go than the Betfair Exchange. The peer-to-peer betting platform means you get the best odds the market has to offer, and if you’re unsure on who to bet on, or how to find value in the market where others can’t, then head to the Betfair Hub today and take advantage of our US political expert’s tips and predictions.
