U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
2 Aug 2023
2024 US ELECTION PREVIEW
Americans will go to the polls on November 5 2024 to determine the next President of the United States, the 60th presidential election in the nation’s history. To win office, the winning candidate will require 270 Electoral College votes. There is plenty of water to go under the bridge in the next 18 months though with both parties needing to go through a rigorous 50-state primary and caucus season to determine the candidates for each party that will start on January 22 with the Iowa Caucus, go through Super Tuesday on March 5 and finish with the respective conventions on July 15-18 (Republicans) and August 19-22 (Democrats).
President Joe Biden was a convincing winner of the 2020 election, winning 306 Electoral College votes and the popular vote by 4.51%.
The six states expected to be decisive in the 2024 Presidential Election are North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Incumbent Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee for the Democrats after announcing he will run with a legitimate challenger highly unlikely, particularly from someone inside the administration. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic Party royalty Robert Kennedy Jr are the most likely challengers. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump is the front-runner with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis well in the mix. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has also announced her candidacy.
Best Bets
Joe Biden Popular Vote Winner at $1.20 +
Ron DeSantis to Win Republican Nomination at $2.50 +
Will Ron DeSantis Run in 2024 – Yes at $1.12 +
Gender of Election Winner – Lay Female up to $101
Kamala Harris Democratic Vice President Nominee at $1.04 +
TOP 5 SELECTIONS TO WIN THE ELECTION
1. Joe Biden
The incumbent overachieved in 2020 and then did so again in the midterms. Jimmy Carter is the only Democrat since 1932 to not win a second term. The election is his to lose even at the age of 80. He looks a very good bet to not only win but claim the popular vote.
2. Donald Trump
Trump left office in inglorious circumstances four years ago but has returned, as expected, to seek a second term in office. Trump remains incredibly popular with the Republican base but is a polarising figure who will drive Democrat voter turnout if nothing else.
3. Ron DeSantis
The Florida Governor has not declared yet but is already positioning himself as an ‘electable Trump’. He faces a vicious nomination campaign against an opponent who will stop at nothing to win but he has already raised significant money. Betting Yes at better than $1.12 in the ‘Will Ron DeSantis Ru in 2024?’is a quality bet.
4. Kamala Harris
Since 1800 only one sitting Vice President has challenged a sitting President for the nomination was when John Garner challenged FDR in 1940. He did not receive the nomination. Harris has only hurt her future Presidential aspirations in office so will likely follow a path of trying to maintain her position. Can be laid in every market.
5. Nikki Haley
Haley is barely registering on polls despite declaring her candidacy as she looks to become the first female President. While she is the best and only legitimate female chance, she will not be winning. Lay Female in the Gender of Election Winner market.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
Now that President Joe Biden has announced he will contest the 2024 Election, he is highly unlikely to be presented with any serious challenge. Only five times since World War II has a sitting president been seriously challenged and just three times for the Democrats. There were clear reasons for a challenge in all three: Harry Truman sought essentially a third term just after the passing of the two-term limit, Lyndon Johnson did so under the glare of the Vietnam War and Jimmy Carter ran in dreadful economic conditions. While Biden has been criticised for his age, he holds significant political capital for ousting Donald Trump and then outperforming the midterms. With a 39% approval rating, Biden is under no serious threat.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Joe Biden to WIN the Democratic nomination at $1.04 +
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
The Republican nomination is a fascinating affair with Donald Trump looking to become the second man ever to win a second non-consecutive term as President. He is the favourite to win the nomination but in the throes of myriad legal issues and a concern that he has alienated more moderate Republicans, alternatives are certainly a chance. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is running a ‘Trump-Lite’ campaign and is considered in markets the only serious challenger at this stage. He will bring in more moderates though his far-right leanings don’t make him the most attractive candidate. Nikki Haley, Larry Elder, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson and Vivek Ramaswamy are all running underdog campaigns with Haley the only one with any hope to lift to the next level. Mike Pence has not declared but could position himself as the anti-Trump alternative.
Trump is dominating the polls with a 52.2% to 22.8% chance over DeSantis. There are 16% undecideds while Pence is polling 5.5% and Haley 3.8%. The value though is with DeSantis, who does not have the same low floor Trump has. DeSantis is likely to receive the bulk of anti-Trump spend and is polling well this far out.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Ron DeSantis to WIN the Republican nomination at $2.50 +
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2024
US Election Betting: Understanding the Odds and Tips
The United States’ presidential election is one of the most significant political events in the world. Every four years, millions of people from around the globe tune in to watch the process unfold. But it’s not just about politics; it’s also about betting. With so much at stake, US Election Betting is becoming increasingly popular. In this article, we will discuss everything you need to know about US Election Betting, including the odds, tips, and a brief history of each of the top candidates: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Kamala Harris.
Understanding US Election Betting on Betfair
US Election Betting with Betfair is a type of political betting that allows people to place bets on who they believe will win the presidential election. Not only this, but bettors can also place wagers on the winning political party, the popular vote winner, party of the popular vote winner, gender of election winner, who the Democratic & Republican nominee will be for President & Vice President, and if Ron DeSantis will run in 2024.
A Brief History of the Top Candidates
Joe Biden: Joe Biden is the current President of the United States and served as Vice President under Barack Obama. Biden was a senator for Delaware for over 30 years and has a long history of public service. In 2020, Biden won the Democratic nomination for President and went on to defeat incumbent Donald Trump in the general election.
Donald Trump: Donald Trump is a businessman and former television personality who served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump was the Republican nominee for President in 2016 and won the election, defeating Hillary Clinton. Trump is known for his controversial policies and actions while in office, including his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his impeachment by the House of Representatives in 2019.
Ron DeSantis: Ron DeSantis is the current Governor of Florida and a rising candidate in the Republican Party. DeSantis served in the US House of Representatives from 2013 to 2018 and was elected Governor of Florida in 2018. DeSantis is known for his conservative policies and close relationship with former President Trump.
Kamala Harris: Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States and the first woman, person of colour, and person of South Asian descent to hold the position. Harris served as Attorney General of California from 2011 to 2017 and was elected to the US Senate in 2016. In 2020, she was selected as Joe Biden’s running mate and was elected Vice President.
Why Betfair is the Best Wagering Platform for the 2024 US Presidential Election
Betfair is a leading online betting Exchange that allows users to bet against each other on sporting events, political outcomes, and more. With over 20 years of experience in the industry, Betfair has earned a reputation as the most reliable and trustworthy platform for sports and political betting.
One of the reasons Betfair is the best wagering platform for the 2024 US Presidential Election is its competitive odds. The platform offers some of the best odds in the industry, which can significantly increase your potential winnings.
Another reason to choose Betfair is its user-friendly platform. The website is easy to navigate, and placing bets is simple and straightforward. Additionally, Betfair offers a mobile app, allowing users to place bets from anywhere at any time.
Betfair also offers a wide range of US Election Betting markets, including the winner of the presidential election, the winning political party, and who the Democratic & Republican nominee will be. With so many options, you can find the market that best suits your betting strategy.
Conclusion
Betfair is here to provide the punter with the latest and most reliable information regarding the 2024 US Presidential Election. Our US Politics expert is an industry leader in politics wagering, with a wealth of knowledge for the US Political system. If you’re looking to place a bet on the 2024 US Election, then there really is no other place to go than the Betfair Exchange. The peer-to-peer betting platform means you get the best odds the market has to offer, and if you’re unsure on who to bet on, or how to find value in the market where others can’t, then head to the Betfair Hub today and take advantage of our US political expert’s tips and predictions.
