NSW STATE ELECTION PREVIEW
New South Wales residents head to the polls on Saturday, March 25 to decide on their next government.
The Coalition have won three straight elections with Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian all leading the Liberal Party to a victory at the polls with Dominic Perrottet looking to emulate his predecessors.
Four straight election victories for a party is not unprecedented though with Labor holding government from 1995 to 2011 while Neville Wran also led Labor to four straight election wins. Since 1976 voters have thrown the incumbent party out just three times. This is the longest period of conservative rule though.,
The current state of affairs sees the Coalition with 45 of the 93 seats following resignations that saw them lose three seats they won since 2019. Labor has 36 seats. Following redistribution, the Coalition has a notional hold on 46 seats with the ALP having 38.
Labor needs a swing of 5% to win more seats than the Coalition and 6.5% to win a majority Government.
BEST BETS: RESULT
Coalition Win at $3.50+
The ALP are insanely short given polling numbers. Most polls have Labor receiving a significant swing but are short of the required 5% to win more seats and certainly short of the 6.5% swing required for a majority. What throws this into more doubt is the move away from the major parties and a high level of vote exhaustion due to voters being able to stop votes after putting in their top candidate in the lower house. The Coalition are holding up reasonably well in the west of Sydney and if they can sandbag some ‘middle Sydney’ seats then all is not lost for Perrottet.
BEST BETS: MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
NO at $1.33+
Do not expect a majority government whatever way this election breaks. The NSW electoral system is favouring crossbench candidates more and more with 53% of votes not for the major parties exhausting. Mixed with the large swing required and the move away from major party politics over the last five years, anything better than $1.33 for a minority government is a tremendous bet.
BEST BETS: INDIVIDUAL ELECTORATE, ORANGE
Independent at $1.02+
There is a huge overlay in the seat of Orange where Phil Donato is expected to retain his seat despite leaving his party to run as an independent. He is loving nothing in advertising spend though, estimates suggesting he is outspending his National rival Tony Mileto by a factor of at least 2:1. There is approximately $1.20 on offer and that is a gift.
BEST BETS: INDIVIDUAL ELECTORATE, EAST HILLS
Labor at $1.35+
The Liberal Party holds East Hills on a margin of just 0.1% and even the most optimistic Liberal type would struggle to make a case that the seat is retained. Wendy Lindsay has not been a high profile MP and looks set to go under in the inevitable Labor wave.