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EXPERT AFL TIPS: ROUND 21

Best Bets

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Joel Cashman

BACK: (Handicap) Fremantle -22.5 for 1 unit (Rated at $1.85)

Since their round eight loss to St Kilda, the Dockers did eventually turn their season around, now on a five game winning streak and average winning margin of 28 points. Their form at home is also strong with six wins in their last seven. St Kilda have only won two of their last 10 matches and their eight losses have been quite concerning with the Saints failing to cover the line in any of these losses.

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Melbourne v West Coast

Betting Strategy

BACK: (Handicap) Melbourne -41.5 for 0.5 units (Rated at $1.85)

West Coast has an 0-8 record in interstate matches this season, with an average losing margin of 41 points during this period. In the last two seasons, the Eagles have an 0-6 record at Marvel Stadium, losing these matches by an average margin of 53 points.

Gold Coast v Richmond

Betting Strategy

BACK: (Handicap) Gold Coast -50.5 for 0.75 units (Rated at $1.82)

Gold Coast are a much better performed side at home compared to away, with a 16-3 record at home compared to away. Across the last two seasons when starting as the favourites at home, they have a 10-4 record at successfully covering the line. In the last six weeks, the Tigers have lost their last four matches against top-9 sides by an average margin of 63 points.

Sydney v Essendon

Betting Strategy

BACK: (Handicap) Sydney – 46.5 for 0.5 units (Rated at $1.82)

Essendon’s season has turned from bad to worse in recent weeks, clocking their eighth consecutive loss and their injury list mounting. The Bombers have failed to cover the line in six weeks and have lost their last five matches when starting as the underdog by an average margin of 63.6 points.

Collingwood v Brisbane

Betting Strategy

BACK: (Handicap) Brisbane +7.5 for 0.5 units (Rated at $1.82)

In five of the last seven matches Collingwood has played at the MCG, they have been unable to cover the line, starting as the favourite on all of these occasions. It is very rare that the Lions have started as the underdog in a match in the last two seasons, but the last eight occasions this has happened, they have covered the line all eight times.

BACK: (Total Points) Under 156.5 for 0.5 units (Rated at $1.82)

Eight of the last 10 matches Collingwood have played have gone under the total, with an average total points of 156.5. The last three times these sides have played each other, the match has gone under the total.

AFL TIPS AND BETTING STRATEGIES

Welcome to Betfair’s AFL Tipping page for 2025! You will find AFL previews, betting tips and strategies for the 2025 premiership season from our team of footy experts. With 18 teams in the AFL, 24 rounds this season made up of 207 matches, the team at Betfair is here to help you navigate the season from a betting point of view. We’ll be providing our expert picks for every game and once the regular season is over and we are left with 8 finals teams, the tips don’t stop there as we’ve got you covered for the finals series as well.

Each week, we’ll be putting out betting advice for every game of the round including best bets for the week, value picks, lay tips and player prop selections. These will range from margin picks, first goal scorers, who to bet at the line and of course who the Betfair team think will win each game. When making their weekly AFL tips, our experts will look at recent form, statistics from throughout the season, historical trends and rely on their developed betting knowledge giving you informed selections backed up by data.

The latest AFL tips will be posted on this page each week as teams get released for the round as the in and outs of each team can dramatically impact who wins a game of football. This is why it’s also important to keep an eye out for late changes teams may swing, and adjust your betting strategies accordingly. For example, if a key defender is out, the opposing team’s key forward might be due for a big game.  

A great feature of Betfair is that you’ll be able to put our tips on the Betfair Hub to use on the Betfair Exchange as not only does Betfair provide expert betting content, we are also a betting exchange where punters can bet against each other. You’ve got a wide range of AFL markets on the exchange which our tips cover including futures markets like the premiership market, top 4, top 8, wooden spoon and much more. 

Click here to view all the AFL futures betting markets – plus every game of every round – on the Betfair Exchange.

Our tipping content is tailored to the unique features you’ll only find on the Betfair Exchange making it the perfect place to action the tips you’ll find on this page. Simply click on the blue and pink widgets next to the tips depending on whether you want to back or lay the tip, and you’ll be taken straight to the correlating market on the exchange where you can place your bets.

Not only have we got weekly footy tipping content, but Betfair also has a wide range of AFL related betting articles that’ll keep you informed throughout the 2024 football calendar which you can find here. So what are you waiting for? Kick your AFL season into gear with premium AFL betting tips thanks to the Betfair Hub. Play your way with Betfair.

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