THE NUMBER CRUNCH: RACING AND SPORT
NUMBER CRUNCH: SATURDAY
FLEMINGTON
Betting Strategy
BACK: (WIN) 10. Via Sistina
12 of last 13 winners have had more than 4 starts over the 2000m, 7 of the last 11 have drawn inside barrier 5. Strike rate of mares in this race is solid by comparison and last start Group 1 winner is a good historical pointer
BACK (PLACE) 5. Bella Nipotina for 1 unit
9 of last 12 winners finished top 2 at their previous start. and 11 of 12 finished top 2 the start before that. Bella won both.
7 of last 12 have won 10 or more times coming in.
5 of the last 7 came via the Everest.
Only query is Bella has placed 4 times at the track without a win, so place is the safer option
ROSEHILL
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) #2 Magic Time
Has gone 1/1 at the track and placed in 6/7 at the distance
Is third up and has won third up before
Drops 2.5kg from last start
Best Bets
Number Crunch
BACK (WIN) R2 #4 Little Jeanie
James McDonald has a 59% place strike rate this season at Warwick Farm and a 30% win rate, both ranked first. Chris Waller is the best performed trainer at the venue over the last 30, 60 and 90 days. The horse won her only start at the distance and placed her only time at the track.
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