FEATURE PREVIEWS: TANCRED STAKES
TANCRED STAKES
Group 1 | Standard WFA, 3YO+ | $1,500,000 | Rail: +5m | Track Conditions: Soft-Heavy
11 3YO’s and 11 mares have won this race. Duais was the latest mare in 2022 but the 3YO’s have not won this race since Fiveandahalfstar in 2013.
Historical Profiling (last 12 years)
1st/2nd up (0/14), 3rd up (3/36), 4th up (6/47), 5th up (3/18), 6th up+ (0/10)
7-day break (3/28), 14-day break (7/67), 21-day break (1/14)
Settled 1st-3rd (4), Settled 5th-6th (5), Settled 8th-9th (2)
Geldings (6/70), Horses (2/31), Mares (4/22)
3yo (1/4), 4yo (5/28), 5yo (3/32), 6yo (2/32), 7yo+ (1/29)
Average Prizemoney Index 5-50k (2/77), 60k+ (10/48)
Barriers 1-6 (10/72), Barriers 7-14 (2/53)
Bowman (3), Mcdonald (3), Mcevoy (1), Rawiller (1), Nolen (1), Parr (1)
SP Rank 1-2 (11/24), SP 3-14 (1/101)
SP $1.60-$5.50 (11), $14 (1)
Same jockey last start No (3/61), Yes (9/64)
Won at Rosehill No (4/81), Yes (8/44)
Last start favourite No (7/104), Yes (5/21)
Last start finishing position 1 (7/20), 2-4 (5/51), 5+ (0/56)
Last start class G1 (10/68), G2/G3/LR (2/52), Other (0/5)
Last start state VIC (4/26), NSW (8/89), Other (0/10)
Hard fit on pacers with proven G1 staying ability at 2400m+ come to the fore in this race.
11 of the past 12 winners have come out of the Ranvet or Australian Cup
5 of the last 11 winners were leading on the turn, with no winner worse than 7th on the turn.
PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY
Kalapour’s victory last year was a magnificent result for Betfair punters.
The $50 BSP was 36.4% higher than best tote after commission was factored in. The best tote price was $34, meaning a $110 benefit for a $10 outlay.
Arapaho’s victory in 2023 was also lucrative, with the $18 BSP dwarfing best tote ($13) by 24.9% post commission.
In 2022 it was Duais who got up as favourite, the most recent top elect to do so. The $2.58 BSP was on parity with corporate average.
SPEED MAP
The leader doesn’t look clear cut here and the conditions may play a part. DUKE DE SESSA kicks up from barrier 2, LAND LEGEND works across from wider. ARAPAHO handy and CIRCLE OF FIRE trying to slot in from a sticky gate also.
TANCRED STAKES | RACE PREVIEW
What a fascinating race and a world class event with the presence of #1 DUBAI HONOUR, #14 RIVER OF STARS along with the stablemate #5 ZAZIR, the New Zealander #13 LA CRIQUE and even the new Aussie #2 VAUBAN. We have seen #1 DUBAI HONOUR come here and beat up on our best gallopers and we have seen him do it on wet tracks. Haggas is a genius and Marquand knows this horse so well. DUBAI HONOUR is an old pro know and loves travelling, and with a query on #2 VAUBAN on a wet track #1 DUBAI HONOUR does look the obvious on top selection.
#14 RIVER OF STARS is a big watch. Has quality Group form overseas and while she hasn’t won below 2400m, we know what these Australian trainers can do at injecting a bit more speed into their legs – VAUBAN the perfect example over 2000m on debut for Waterhouse/Bott. McDonald rides which is a tick. The negative may be that she is yet to win on a wet track, albeit she has run some good races.
With the rain around, expecting #3 ARAPAHO to turn the tables on #2 VAUBAN. ARAPAHO was brilliant last start in the Sky High and looks the pick of the local gallopers. He is an absolute mudlark.
#13 LA CRIQUE is a star in her own right. Loves the sting out and rarely runs poorly.
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
#1 DUBAI HONOUR
#14 RIVER OF STARS
#3 ARAPAHO
#13 LA CRIQUE
BETTING STRATEGIES
Big market watch on #14 RIVER OF STARS. The market could tell a story here with varying levels of fitness, let alone what the conditions are like. #1 DUBAI HONOUR on top and if right, he could be a play. Follow The Trial Files on the Betfair app.
**The Trial Files monitors market fluctuations, track conditions, weather, scratchings, stewards’ notifications, and general news before submitting their betting strategies for NSW Group 1s. Make sure you’re following The Trial Files on the Betfair App and turn on notifications to get alerted when they share their strategies—sometimes as close as 30 minutes before a race.**
Tancred Stakes Betting Tips – Expert Predictions and Insights
The Tancred Stakes stands as one of Australia’s premier staying contests, run over 2400 metres at Rosehill Gardens. As the only Group 1 weight-for-age race over this distance in the Sydney Autumn Carnival, it’s a true test of stamina, class, and strategy. If you’re keen to find an edge this season, our Tancred Stakes betting tips are designed to give you a clear advantage.
Each year, this prestigious event attracts elite gallopers, seasoned stayers, and international raiders, all vying for their share of the substantial prize pool. Whether you’re looking for longshot value or confident selections, our team of analysts provides accurate and profitable Tancred Stakes tips. It’s not just about picking a favourite. Our expert team takes a deep dive into the form guide, watching trials, studying track conditions, and factoring in how each horse is likely to perform based on history, data, and the setup of the race.
With years of industry experience, we bring a sharp eye for detail and a proven approach to each race. Our racing tips focus on delivering high-quality information so that punters of all levels—from recreational to professional—can make informed decisions.
With our race previews, Betfair looks at:
- Recent form and fitness
- Historical performance at the track and distance
- Jockey-trainer combinations
- Speed maps and predicted race tempo
- Track condition trends and bias
The Tancred Stakes often features complex form lines with horses coming through the Australian Cup, Ranvet Stakes, or other key lead-up races. That’s why our predictions are built on a combination of analytics and on-the-ground intelligence. We consider how each runner is tracking through their campaign and look for horses ready to peak on Tancred day. Sometimes that means siding with the favourite, and other times it means identifying a roughie ready to surprise. Our best bets are chosen not just based on winning chances, but on value and market opportunity. We keep an eye on fluctuations, early market moves, and tote trends to help you get the best bang for your buck.
Here’s what you can expect in our betting strategy:
- Win bets: Our top pick to take out the Tancred Stakes
- Place and each-way bets: Ideal for backing consistent types or value runners
- Roughies to watch: Longshots that could surprise based on pace or conditions
Because the race often features a tactical pace and staying test, betting strategy plays a huge role. Backmarkers can feature prominently if the speed is strong, but if the tempo slackens mid-race, leaders may dominate. The Tancred Stakes is a highlight of the Autumn Carnival, and we’re here to help you capitalise on it. With expert analysis, updated markets, and trusted opinions, our page will remain your go-to source for consistent, well-researched racing tips. Betfair has Rosehill betting tips all season long on.
Whether you’re chasing the favourites or betting on an outsider, trust our team to bring you Tancred Stakes betting tips that make a difference.
