EXPERT RACING TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT

ROYAL ASCOT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY JUNE 22ND 2024

Betting Strategy

BACK: 14. Bedtime Story (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.50)

Aidan O’Brien has won this six times and sends a smart filly out on her own. She rattled by the highly regarded stablemate on debut who will surely bolt up in a maiden next time, and the horse in 4th has won since. Assuming Ryan Moore has his skates on once more and he plots another course over to the stand’s rail she looks very hard to beat. Duke Of Monroth was a $500,000 breeze-ups purchase and is the unknown x-factor, whilst Pentle Bay was bought by Teme Valley and Aus connections after a storming debut win

Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. Middle Earth (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.50)

MIDDLE EARTH was electric winning on seasonal return with a gap back to Desert Hero and had the form boosted by runner up King Of Conquest winning at Goodwood cosily. He will have fitness on his side over Continuous and gets track conditions to suit having nearly sank into the mud in the St Leger. O’Brien also has no pacemaker here so there will be minimal tempo which suits the Australia-bound Roaring Lion colt.

BACK: 7. Isle Of Jura (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)

Isle Of Jura has been something of a revelation the last 12 months winning 7 of his last 9 races. The ground will suit nicely and he’ll be looming up at some stage, but the unknown will be the stiff track at this distance.

LAY: 2. Continuous (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at $5.00)

I’m inclined to think this is more of a prep run for Continuous who would have bigger G1 targets in mind, and I’m also against him for the fact that in his career he’s run largely on flat tracks and the only stiff track he has raced at was here when beaten 3.5L by King Of Steel. There is also minimal pace on here and he has benefitted greatly from good tempos in the past.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Kinross (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $4.00)

In the past I’ve knocked Kinross as just a wet tracker and whilst he is a sensation with cut in the ground he is still a force to be reckoned with on good ground. A Guineas 6th, 2x Duke Of York G2 wins, Breeders Cup Mile 3rd, and solid efforts in this race with excuses: he was drawn wrong side one year and last year he ran missing two shoes as he wasn’t reshod at the start. He was beaten at $1.01 in-play in the Champions Sprint here in October and a repeat of that run would win this now seemingly drawn the faster side.

BACK: 11. Washington Heights (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.00)

Washington Heights has been locking horns with Mill Stream who is the current fav for this. He turned him over first up, before being beaten 0.5L at York last time. I’m confident he can reverse the form again as Mill Stream seems to enjoy more cut in the ground and will likely be spotting Washington Heights a few lengths. He should provide a great tempo for the stand’s side horses to chase if he moves that way and doesn’t go gun-barrel straight from the off.

BACK: 8. Shartash (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.00)

Potentially drawn wrong but Inisherin belied that from stall 1 yesterday. Horse has been airborne since gelding and Wathnan picked him up for their assault on Royal Ascot which has proved very fruitful so far with a trio of winners and even more placegetters. Just needs to be careful he doesn’t get upset behind the gates so he is one to watch and back close to the jump.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 12. Never So Brave (WIN & PLACE) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00)

Saffie Osborne regains the ride here as Moore has to ride River Tiber. This horse was the best maiden in training at the start of this season and duly obliged, winning in electric fashion before backing it up at Chester as the cliched “group horse in a handicap.”
As a 2yo he ran 2nd to Vandeek who went on to win a G1, and then ran 2nd to Ancient Wisdom who also went on to win a G1. I think he should have been in the SJP on Tuesday or the Commonwealth Cup yesterday and this G3 is within reach.

BACK: 12. Never So Brave (WIN & PLACE) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00)

BACK: 14. River Timber (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.50)

RIVER TIBER won the Coventry last year and relished the track. He beat Haatem that day and they locked horns again in the Irish Guineas a few weeks ago where Haatem couldn’t be reeled in by the selection who was underdone and had the door shut late with no gap. They renew the rivalry here with River Tiber in receipt of 1.5kgs as Haatem is penalised for the Craven Stakes win. Racking and stacking proved advantageous on the round course in the Guineas but back to straight racing suits River Tiber better and I am happy to side with him. The pair have the best 3yo form in Europe by some distance having run 2nd and 3rd to Rosallion who scooted away with the SJP on Tuesday.

Betting Strategy

Another race where it is a lotto and I’m happy to sit out. No strong opinions other than watching what the out and out lunatic Cover Up will do will be exhilarating and/or disappointing. Entirely possible he runs a sub-10s furlong and also tosses the jockey off in the next furlong.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 13. Old Faithful (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00)

Should be ample pace on with numerous leaders engaged and this should set it up for the swoopers as has been custom this week. Cambridge likely to press on from wide and make it a good clip or at least rattle the cage of the likely leaders in Hand Of God, Approval, Black Run, Miletus and Grey Cuban.
This gives Moore a chance to deliver the quirky Old Faithful late on in the piece who does not enjoy vigorous riding or the whip. If he can find the run like Calandagan did he could blouse over the top late.

BACK: 1. Cambridge (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)

Tough task for Cambridge to cross and lead from out wide but if they don’t I’m not opposed to seeing him ridden stone cold. He brings elite form to this via the Dante 4th, and couldn’t match motors with Haatem over a mile at Newmarket in the Craven. His only career win has come on lightning fast ground so that could be key to him.

BACK: 9. Palace Green (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $8.00)

There is a case for Palace Green if finding a clear passage along the fence which has been difficult all week. He was a nutter as a 2yo, dumping the jockey on debut in a hot maiden, before a game 1L 2nd and then racing coltishly at Newmarket. He came back as a gelding with a rollicking 5L win and went to the Dante festival where he rocketed from last to first, hitting odds on before copping a bump and failing to see out the trip. I don’t think the long straight suited and he was going way too well and hit the front too soon. Down in trip back to 2000m should be ideal and he can be produced a little later with his cruising speed.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 1. Trueshan (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.00)

I’m confident Trueshan won’t run and if he does it will be because the rain has come for him. Happy to nibble each way and either get voided, or a live ticket at odds for a horse undefeated at 4000m. Connections are well on their way to making him the most scratched horse in racing history, not just Royal Ascot.

BACK: 1. Trueshan (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.00)

BACK: 6. Run For Oscar (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.50)

Run For Oscar was something licked in this last year and meets Dawn Rising 1.5kg better off this time. Prep run was solid and it is a whole new ball game at this distance in which he is proven and half this field are not. The main gripe I have is Maxime Guyon’s lack of tactical nous over 4400m, otherwise he is a rock solid bet with a saver on Dawn Rising.

BACK: 2. Dawn Rising (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.50)

Run For Oscar and Dawn Rising profile so similarly but I’ve just leaned to the former based on weight pull and the fact he was something licked last year. Dawn Rising the most likely winner on paper outside of him so happy to Dutch the race with the pair.

ROYAL ASCOT TIPS 2024