FEATURE PREVIEWS: QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

Group 1 | WFA, 3YO+ | $5,000,000 | Rail: +3m | Track Conditions: Good 4

One of the great races on the Australian racing calendar. Won last year in a dashing, dominant display by Pride Of Jenni and Declan Bates with many other jockeys coming under scrutiny for essentially being asleep at the wheel.

Dubai Honour is back after winning this race in 2023 and he looks a major player. Jockey Tom Marquand and William Haggas have had a stranglehold on this race, winning three of the last five. The mighty mare Winx and Hugh Bowman won the three years prior.

• 1^st up (0/4), 2^nd up (5/20), 3^rd up (2/14), 4^th up (4/55), 5^th up+ (1/28)
• 5-7-day break (1/32), 12-14-day break (2/32), 21-day break (8/38), 28-day break (1/11), 30+ day break (0/7)
• Settled 1st-3rd (5), Settled 4^th-7^th (4), Settled 10^th-14^th (2)
• Barrier 1-4 (7), Barrier 7-10 (4)
• 3yo (0/3), 4yo (2/36), 5yo (5/36), 6yo (3/18), 7yo (2/21), 8yo+ (0/7)
• Colt (0/3), Geldings (4/52), Mares (5/27), Entires (3/39)
• SP Rank 1-2 (10/12), 3-7 (2/60), 8+ (0/37)
• Last Start Distance 1500 (6/18), 1600 (1/42), 2000 (3/40), 2400 (2/20)
• Last Start Race Class G1 (12/100), Other (0/21)
• Second Last Start Race Class G1 (12/80), Other (0/41)
• Average Prizemoney $10k-$50k (0/39), $60k-$90k (2/27), $100k+ (10/55)
• Leadup race: Ranvet (3), George Ryder (5), Coolmore (1), Doncaster (1), Tancred (2)
• Official Handicap Ranking 1-3 (11/36), 4-5 (1/24), 6+ (0/61)
• Same Jockey Last Start No (3/59), Yes (9/62)
• Last 3 Starts Average Margin 0 (12/72), 1+ (0/49)

Pride of Jenni got the job done magnificently in 2024 with an $8 BSP. This price was 3% better than best tote after commission.

Dubai Honour got it done as favourite in 2023 with a price on parity with competition.

Think It Over was the blowout in 2022, getting up at $59.24, which post commission, dwarfed best tote by 30% ($41).

This equates to an extra $123 in the pocket for a $10 outlay.

DENY KNOWLEDGE looks the leader and she might be out to do something like Pride Of Jenni did successfully last year. She’s not quite at that level but it may mean the other jockeys disrespect her like they Pride of Jenni did last year. LINDERMANN will get the cart behind her you suspect. The favourite VIA SISTINA draws barrier 1, while her key rivals have drawn 13 (DUBAI HONOUR), 15 (CEOLWULF) and 12 (ROUSHAM PARK). Not sure barrier 1 will suit VIA SISTINA but McDonald is certainly the man for the job.

#12 VIA SISTINA is the best horse in Australia but do we take the price about her in one of Australia’s best races, that’s the question. Particularly from barrier 1 which is far from ideal. She has been winning, and clearly racing in good fashion, but is she an $1.70 chance against some world class horses now. Think VIA SISTINA is priced off her Cox Plate win which was a career peak and a huge spike in her ratings, and not what she has been doing this campaign. No doubt she can go to another level today in what is her grand final, for a trainer who does get them to peak, but we are more inclined to be against her at the price from the inside barrier than with her. Who beats her? That’s the other question. The beauty of Betfair is the pink button where you can lay and not worry about finding the winner. She is clearly the horse they have to beat it is just purely about price.

#1 DUBAI HONOUR is a champion in his own right. He won this race two years ago and returns to get the title back. Superb winner of the Tancred over 2400m last start and the query is whether that was his race, not the 2000m of this event. The stable has said he is a better 2400m now he is older and dropping back in distance has to be the query. He should get a genuine tempo here which will suit and at least the wide barrier will see him be able to wind up and blend into the race down the middle. #6 VAUBAN was good in that Tancred and a little unlucky. Another with a wide barrier who is back to 2000m.

#4 CEOLWULF won the G2 Sellwood by a pimple last time. He is a class galloper but just a query on him with an interrupted prep. A case could be made that the last start was just a trial for this and this is the race he was always aimed at. Can win but a wide barrier doesn’t help and don’t like backing horses in these grand final races that haven’t had a perfect (uninterrupted) prep.

#5 TOM KITTEN might be a better miler but convinced he is flying. Huge in a Doncaster, racing keen off a very slow speed and only beaten 0.91. On the back up, he looks an each way player.

#7 BUCKAROO ran well in a George Ryder despite finishing 9^th. He did enough late there but it is worth noting that he did have the fence in run which was a big plus. That race has seen the Doncaster winner come through it, but Stefi Magnetica was off fence.

#3 LIGHT INFANTRY MAN, #10 MIDDLE EARTH and #14 DENY KNOWLEDGE come through the Australian Cup. Not sure it is the right lead up.

Then we have the Japanese runners in #2 ROUSHAM PARK and #11 GEOGLYPH. At  least we have seen GEOGLYPH but the Doncaster was run at such a farcical speed that we didn’t learn much. We know how good these Japanese horses are and they do have to be respected.

#12 VIA SISTINA
#1 DUBAI HONOUR
#5 TOM KITTEN
#2 ROUSHAM PARK