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FEATURE PREVIEWS: QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES PREVIEW

Track: Randwick | Distance: 2000m | Type: G1 WFA | Rail Position: +4m | Condition: Slow6 (Wednesday) | Prizemoney: $5,000,000

Around 7mm rain forecast for the rest of the week. Minimal back end of the week so despite being wet the Randwick track should play well.

Outstanding Group 1 race won in recent years by Reliable Man, It’s a Dundeel, Winx (3 times) & Addeybb (twice).

HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 11 YEARS)

  • Second up (4 winners), Third up (2 winners), Fourth up (4 winners), Fifth up (1 winner)
  • 7-day break (1 winner), 14-day break (2 winners), 21-day break (7 winners), 28-day break (1 winner)
  • Settled 1st-3rd in running (5 winners), Settled 4th-6th (3 winners), Settled 10th-14th (2 winners)
  • Barrier 1-4 (7 winners), Barrier 9-10 (3 winners)
  • 4yo (2 winners), 5yo (4 winners), 6yo (3 winners), 7yo (2 winners)
  • Geldings (3 winners), Mares (5 winners), Entires (3 winners)
  • Lead-up races: Ranvet Stakes (2 winners), George Ryder Stakes (5 winners), Coolmore Classic (1 winner), Doncaster Mile (1 winner), Tancred Stakes (2 winners)
  • Nine winners were priced either as favourite or second favourite on the Betfair SP.

SPEED MAP

Slow pace expected with Numerian and Unicorn Lion likely to set the tempo.

Anamoe, Gear Up, Protagonist, Mo’unga and El Patroness sit forward of midfield.

Alenquer, Hezashocka, Zeyrek, Montefilia and Dubai Honour worse than midfield.

Cascadian out the back.

QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES | KEY RUNNERS

1. Anamoe – Nine-time Group 1 winner, including a Cox Plate, who has won seven of his past 8 starts. Only career flop was on a bog track in this race last year. Was an impressive winner of the George Ryder last start after racing back and wide without cover throughout.

2. Dubai Honour – High class import with multiple Group 2 wins, a Group 1 second at Ascot and a fourth, beaten 1.3 lengths in the Hong Kong Cup. Bolted in to win the Ranvet Stakes for us last start by 4.4 lengths in a canter on a dry track with Ryan Moore. Is even better on the wet. However, Tom Marquand has ridden this horse five times without a win. Form lines and margins of the horses he thrashed in the Ranvet – who were not beaten anywhere near as far by Anamoe when they raced him – compare very favourably.

3. Alenquer – Talented entire with A-Grade Group 1 form in Ireland, France, England and Dubai. Flopped in the All-Star Mile, but track may have been too hard and tight. Wider expanses and softer ground at Randwick may suit. We saw My Oberon go from an All-Star Mile flow to nearly winning the Doncaster last week.

6. Numerian – Set a cracking speed in the Australian Cup and still managed to hold on for second. Is even better on the wet and can run a peak here.

7. Unicorn Lion – Japanese entire with a Group 1 second placing over there two years ago. Trainer won a Cox Plate here with Lys Gracieux so knows what it takes. Won a Group 3 over 2000m three starts ago in Japan. Mixes form and is a query on the wet, but have to respect.

8. Protagonist – Won the Group 3 Sky High Stakes first-up then plugged home in the Doncaster for 12th. Can improve back up in trip.

12. Montefilia –Ran a slashing 5th first up in the Chipping Norton this prep, then 2nd in the Ranvet & Tancred. Should run another good honest race here.

DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS

2 – Dubai Honour
7 – Unicorn Lion
1 – Anamoe
3 – Alenquer
6 – Numerian

QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES | BETTING STRATEGY

Dubai Honour destroyed them in the Ranvet Stakes and the form lines tie in strongly to make him the clear one to beat.

Unicorn Lion comes from Japan and the trainer has had big success here and globally previously.

Alenquer has exceptional overseas form and Numerian comes off a very strong run last start.

BACK: #2 Dubai Honour (WIN) for 2 units

BACK: #7 Unicorn Lion (WIN) for 1 unit

BACK: #3 Alenquer (WIN) for 0.25 units

BACK: #6 Numerian (WIN) for 0.25 units

RESULTS

Units Outlayed: 400.9
Units Returned: 445.4
Profit On Turnover: 11.1%

Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP)

2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69

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