EXPERT RACING TIPS: DUBAI WORLD CUP NIGHT

DUBAI WORLD CUP NIGHT OVERVIEW

RACE 1 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

LAY: 7. SAUDI CROWN (WIN) for 5 units (Rated at: $3)

5u liability lay on Saudi Crown here. Meydan has different dimensions to Riyadh and if Saudi Crown runs the same race he won’t win here despite this being significantly weaker. Most of the big guns didn’t fire in the Saudi Cup and I’m not sure the step down in trip is ideal being drawn wide. I fully expect his price to balloon.

BACK: 10. SWING VOTE (WIN) for 1 units (Rated at: $5)

Swing Vote is forgiven for being drawn wide and being set an impossible task last time. Drawn much better in 5 this time around and is taken to bounce back having notched a hattrick prior.

BACK: 5. QAREEB (WIN) for 0.5 units (Rated at: $10)

QAREEB is flying this campaign and ran a storming 2nd behind Laurel River in the Burj Nahaar, a repeat of that performance can land him in the top three from the economical draw.

RACE 2 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 16. TOWER OF LONDON (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at: $3)

This horse seems to be the heir apparent to Kyprios. His dry track form is outstanding and he was charging home late last start to win at the Saudi Cup meeting. He’s drawn awkardly once more and will be ridden for luck but I think he’s got more upside than these and can improve past them all. He’d be unbeaten on good ground if not for Ryan Moore dropping the whip at Newmarket.

BACK: 11. SISKANY (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at: $4)

Siskany was a tragedy last year hitting 1.09 in the run and being steamrolled by Broome late on. He comfortably accounted for the rest of the field and gets a much more economical run from 6 compared to his market rivals. He’ll sit handy and look the winner and challenge Tower Of London to run him down.

RACE 3 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. SIGHT SUCCESS (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at: $7)

SIGHT SUCCESS was the best of the near-side runners last year, finishing 4th but the first of his group. It was a rare occurrence of the wide barriers being slower than the inside barriers and only three horses drawn inside 6 have won this race since its inception. I’d love for the far side runners to run a separate race to the near side as I believe the stand’s rail is the A1 position. It’s not likely to be the case though as the pace is all drawn low. If Moore is brave, he may reap the rewards.

BACK: 12. STAR OF MYSTERY (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at: $2.5)

STAR OF MYSTERY is a much better horse than this lot and only the barrier beat her last time. She was rocketing home past the field and only had Frost At Dawn on the other side of the track who had pinched 4L ahead of her. This is extra distance which will test the legs of the numerous 1000m types in this field but also the sharpness of the 1400/1600 American and Hong Kong runners. If she stalks the pace pack, she wins. If she comes stand’s rail or middle without a bunny to chase, she loses.

BACK: 11. FROST AT DAWN (WIN) for 1 units (Rated at: $5)

She pinched the Nad AL Sheba last time with a rail-hugging ride from the front. Likely to repeat that judging by barrier draws. Should be in a world of pain come the final furlong, particularly after paddling late at the end of her sole 1200m run. She’ll make this field earn it with a solid clip, the question is which lane she comes up. All her pace rivals are drawn right near her.

RACE 4 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. GEORGE TESORO (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at: $4)

GEORGE TESORO is going to bounce out and attempt to make all, much like his compatriots last year. He’s probably got the best early toe in this field and if he doesn’t have to work too much from barrier 6 to cross he can lead them all a merry dance. This track is much easier to lead and win on than some of the Japanese circuits.

BACK: 10. MENDELSSOHN BAY (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at: $7)

MENDELSSOHN BAY was impressive in both wins here and is drawn to get the ideal run in behind the speed. He will loom up at some point if the pace isn’t too hot and should have something to offer with the favourite attempting to storm down the outside. Hopefully pinches a winning lead before that happens.

BACK: 3. ROCK WALK (WIN) for 0.5 unit (Rated at: $10)

It will be a tall task for the southern hemisphere Olascoaga string having to lump 4.5kg extra for being 6 months older than their rivals, but ROCK WALK feels the most capable of doing so. Didn’t seem to relish racing beyond 2000m back home so 1900m is in the wheelhouse here with Moreira on board.

RACE 5 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. IGNITER (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at: $5)

The form of IGNITER below a mile is outstanding: 112113115513111 meaning he has a 50% win rate at seven furlongs or less. He is a tough on-pacer/front-runner and from the inside gate he is going to be in the thick of the action. He conquered Remake two starts ago and that horse has come up half the price and favourite for this off the back of his Saudi win, despite drawing poorly. Barrier 1 won up the fence here last year and could be key once more so I’m having a very confident each-way play at double figures here.

BACK: 11. REMAKE (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at: $7)

REMAKE blasted past most of these on a track suited to doing so last time. He was drawn in 9 in this last year for a fast-finishing 5th down the outside when the race was all over. It is much harder to win off the pace at Meydan vs Riyadh so I am backing in-play and hoping for a bigger price. Set 1u in-play $7, set 1u in-play $10.

RACE 6 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. MEASURED TIME (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at: $3.5)

MEASURED TIME is the best horse Charlie Appleby has in his stable. He bolted in the G1 Jebel Hatta here over track and trip, and is poised to do so once more from an ideal draw. Only condition beat him when very heavy this prep at Kempton, otherwise nothing has looked like beating him in his five other starts. This could be the race that catapults him into stardom against some flashy older campaigners.

BACK: 4. DANON BELUGA (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at: $6)

DANON BELUGA was a tragedy beat last year and reeled off the 2nd best L400 of the entire card from last. The blinkers go on and he might have a say if he doesn’t get crowded for room and have to check off heels like he did last year.

RACE 7 | SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 12. LIBERTY ISLAND (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at: $2.5)

LIBERTY ISLAND pummelled F&M grade in Japan before tackling Equinox and sweeping all comers bar the undisputed champion of the world. He won this race in 2nd gear last year, breaking the track record in the process in an arrogant front-running display. If she brings her form that chased his shadow, she wins this as Auguste Rodin is reliant on things unfolding at a slow tempo and finding luck in running.

BACK: 4. REBEL’S ROMANCE (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at: $7)

REBEL’S ROMANCE has completed 8 races on turf, winning 6 of them. He bounced back to form in a big way when dancing clear by 3L in Doha last time. He’ll have been primed for this and he wants even tempo rather than a brutal gallop or a crawl, and that is what we are likely to get here.

RACE 8 |SELECTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. KABIRKHAN (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at: $3.5)

The manner in which KABIRKHAN tanked around the Al Maktoum challenge and his barrier draw has me full of confidence that he can continue his rapid progress and establish himself as a force to be reckoned with on the dirt. He could have won by as far as he liked, but cruised to the line last time. He’s been kept fresh for this and will sit handy to the speed and look the winner on the corner. The dangers will be the Japanese and Americans trying to run him down but he might be off and gone by then.

BACK: 7. LAUREL RIVER (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at: $7)

LAUREL RIVER is a solid each way play here and I don’t mind the wide gate as long as he can cross to lead. He made a sustained early burst from barrier 14 last start to skip out in front, never looking like getting beat at any point in the race. Total unknown at the trip, but could be a menace leading all of the way at odds, especially if he can pinch another 5L break on the bend. His cruising speed is electric.

BACK: 11. USHBA TESORO (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at: $6)

I think USHBA TESORO is going to get well back in the run here and his priced will balloon, therefore it doesn’t seem sound to take the $3.5/$4 here and instead back him above $6 in the run. He was explosive winning this last year but got a good clip to run at, and may face some better front-runners this year.