Josh Lloyd from Basketball Monster will be providing expert NBA betting tips for the entire 2020/21 season.
Utilising projections from Basketball Monster, Josh will provide free NBA picks for the big NBA Games on Wednesdays and Fridays.
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
It hasn’t been an excellent start for the Denver Nuggets. They are 5-4 in January, but it must be said that they have been dealing with Michael Porter Jr.’s absence during this stretch — not that Porter is a cure-all and it doesn’t matter for this game, as he isn’t likely to be returning from his COVID-19 diagnosis. That said, to be a top tier NBA team, they need to make light work of a Thunder team designed not to win.
But, the Thunder have had some wins, notably beating the Nets a week or so ago, and coming back to beat the Bulls on the weekend. It is worth noting that six of the last nine Thunder games have been decided by at least 10 points and we don’t even know if Al Horford will be playing in this matchup. The market has Denver favoured by 9.5. And I think if they win, it will be by more than that.
BACK — Nuggets -9.5
New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
The Jazz had a horrible New York back-to-back about two weeks ago, losing to the Nets and Knicks by a combined 46 points. Since then, the Jazz have been rolling, and it hasn’t really been noticed. They have won games by 13 (against the Bucks), 10, 30, 24, and then by four against the Nuggets.
The Pelicans haven’t quite been as successful. Prior to the win against the Kings, the Pels had lost five straight, and a five-point win against Sacramento isn’t the panacea for a bad NBA team. The Kings had no chance of stopping Zion Williamson, but I don’t think Rudy Gobert will have those same issues and the Pelicans could also once again be without Lonzo Ball. I think the Jazz will be too good here.
BACK — Jazz -6.5
Get ready for the weirdest NBA season in recent memory. From a condensed NBA Draft, free agency period, and training camp, with no Summer League for young players and nine new coaches in place, to the Toronto Raptors playing in Tampa, players and teams having to navigate COVID-19 and playing in arenas with no fans, this season promises to throw up some surprises.
So let’s take a look at how this season may play out across the major futures markets and where value may be presenting itself.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo is your back to back reigning MVP. But, after successive playoff failures and the narrative that perhaps Giannis winning the MVP last season didn’t look great with how Milwaukee was bundled out by the Miami Heat. So, winning three in a row, no matter how dominant Giannis is, is going to be tough. Luka Dončić is currently the favourite for the MVP, in his third season, and honestly, it’s not a crazy play.
LeBron is going to be great, but you can see going a bit easier in the regular season. James Harden could be playing for a different team, or not playing at all in a month. Luka is going to carry the load for Dallas with Kristaps Porziņģis out for at least the first month of the season and if he takes his game to a new level, the MVP is within his grasp.
There is some value in Luka at $4.40, but the guy I want to take a look at that is at longer odds, is Damian Lillard. In the Orlando bubble, Lillard was playing like the best player in the league to get the Blazers into the playoffs. What usually holds him back is that the Blazers aren’t good enough to get the attention from national media to get those MVP votes.
But, with the concerns around LeBron, Harden, Giannis, and Anthony Davis perhaps resting, Lillard has a shot. Importantly, the Blazers made big moves to make their team a legitimate chance to be a top-three seed in the West. Adding Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr to the forward rotation, and getting back Jusuf Nurkić and Rodney Hood is almost as good of an offseason you could hope for, and they got rid of Hassan Whiteside.
So, if the Blazers can put together a run and get to the top of the West, Lillard is going to be right up there in people’s minds for the MVP. At around $17, Lillard looms are great value.
BACK — Damian Lillard to win the MVP at $17.00+
Eastern Conference
Last season, the Heat surprised everyone to get the Eastern Conference title. Can they repeat? I doubt it. Last season’s playoffs in the bubble was unique and the Heat team seemed perfectly set up for that environment. Despite what you hear, the East isn’t a cakewalk. The Celtics were close to the Finals, losing to the Heat. The Bucks were the NBA’s best team in the regular season. The Raptors had the NBA’s second best record last season.
But, the Celtics lose Gordon Hayward and have an injured Kemba Walker. The Raptors lose Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. The Bucks got Jrue Holiday, but lost all of their depth, while the Heat losing Jae Crowder is an underrated absence, given how he played against Milwaukee in particular.
So, I think the East is going to have a new representative in the NBA Finals. The Brooklyn Nets will now have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant on the same team. Both players looked great in the first preseason game, and while the injury is a massive worry, the Nets could be dynamic.
They have Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert as well as Jarrett Allen in the paint to go with DeAndre Jordan and they are rightfully priced at around $3.60 to win the East, behind the Bucks, and I think it’s a great pick.
If you want to go a little deeper, the 76ers, under the stewardship of Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey, have great value at $8. The team has shooting with Seth Curry and Danny Green replacing Al Horford and Josh Richardson and that could be what Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid need. Plus, they are threatening to be a James Harden destination.
BACK — The Brooklyn Nets to win the Eastern Conference at $3.60+
Western Conference
It’s tough to repeat. The Lakers at under $2 is a strong pass for me. There isn’t value there for a team that is going to be exhausted and may find themselves out of the home court advantage business if they go easy in the regular season.
The Clippers have been lambasted all offseason. Paul George, aka Wayoff P, got an extension that ‘The Internet’ killed and there seems to be consistent chatter about the issues in the locker room. Montrezl Harrell is gone, but Serge Ibaka replaces him, which may be a better fit and Luke Kennard is a clear upgrade over Landry Shamet.
Not many are talking about the Clippers, which might be enough, under new coach Ty Lue, to allow them to channel their disappointment into an historic Finals run. The value at $4.60 looks pretty good for me.
If you want a deeper option, the Mavericks, with potential MVP Luka Dončić, could be a team that moves forward ahead of their timeline. If Porziņģis can return at full health, this Mavericks team, which challenged the Clippers last year with an injured Porziņģis, could be a surprise squad to make the NBA Finals in Dončić’s third season. And the value at $13 is very nice.
BACK — The LA Clippers to win the Western Conference at $4.60+
NBA Championship
So, I’m picking the Clippers and the Nets to win their respective conferences, and both of their prices for the title look like they are providing good value. Last season, I picked the Clippers and that wasn’t great in hindsight. So, have I learned my lesson?
Absolutely not. The Clippers at $8.20 are my pick for the NBA title for the 2020-21 season. If this doesn’t work out, I am never picking the Clippers again.
BACK — The LA Clippers to win the NBA Championship Conference at $8.00+
All bets are 1 unit.
Total Units Staked: 22.00
Total Units Returned: 28.16
ROI: 27.98%
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