NBA Betting Tips: Expert NBA Analysis

Josh Lloyd from Basketball Monster will be providing expert NBA betting tips for the entire 2020/21 season.

Utilising projections from Basketball Monster, Josh will provide free NBA picks for the big NBA Games on Wednesdays and Fridays.

Check out Basketball Monster and the Locked On Fantasy Basketball Podcast for more from Josh.

Go where the value is on the NBA this season and head to the Betfair Exchange.


Phoenix Suns Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks ‘bucked’ the trend, winning the first road game of the NBA Finals and now they have a chance to close out the Finals at home in Game 6. Rightfully so, the market has Milwaukee as favourites, this time by five points.

I fully expect the Bucks to be able to close out the championship here in this game, but the five points is a little tougher to wrap my head around.

There is a risk of a huge blowout if Milwaukee gets up early as Phoenix may just lose all hope and pack it in, but if it remains competitive, I think five is too much. I expect Phoenix to come out firing, so I do think they can cover, but the Bucks still get the win and end up champions.

BACK — Suns +5

Get ready for the weirdest NBA season in recent memory. From a condensed NBA Draft, free agency period, and training camp, with no Summer League for young players and nine new coaches in place, to the Toronto Raptors playing in Tampa, players and teams having to navigate COVID-19 and playing in arenas with no fans, this season promises to throw up some surprises.

So let’s take a look at how this season may play out across the major futures markets and where value may be presenting itself.


MVP

Giannis Antetokounmpo is your back to back reigning MVP. But, after successive playoff failures and the narrative that perhaps Giannis winning the MVP last season didn’t look great with how Milwaukee was bundled out by the Miami Heat. So, winning three in a row, no matter how dominant Giannis is, is going to be tough. Luka Dončić is currently the favourite for the MVP, in his third season, and honestly, it’s not a crazy play.

LeBron is going to be great, but you can see going a bit easier in the regular season. James Harden could be playing for a different team, or not playing at all in a month. Luka is going to carry the load for Dallas with Kristaps Porziņģis out for at least the first month of the season and if he takes his game to a new level, the MVP is within his grasp.

There is some value in Luka at $4.40, but the guy I want to take a look at that is at longer odds, is Damian Lillard. In the Orlando bubble, Lillard was playing like the best player in the league to get the Blazers into the playoffs. What usually holds him back is that the Blazers aren’t good enough to get the attention from national media to get those MVP votes.

But, with the concerns around LeBron, Harden, Giannis, and Anthony Davis perhaps resting, Lillard has a shot. Importantly, the Blazers made big moves to make their team a legitimate chance to be a top-three seed in the West. Adding Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr to the forward rotation, and getting back Jusuf Nurkić and Rodney Hood is almost as good of an offseason you could hope for, and they got rid of Hassan Whiteside.

So, if the Blazers can put together a run and get to the top of the West, Lillard is going to be right up there in people’s minds for the MVP. At around $17, Lillard looms are great value.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Damian Lillard to win the MVP at $17.00+


Eastern Conference

Last season, the Heat surprised everyone to get the Eastern Conference title. Can they repeat? I doubt it. Last season’s playoffs in the bubble was unique and the Heat team seemed perfectly set up for that environment. Despite what you hear, the East isn’t a cakewalk. The Celtics were close to the Finals, losing to the Heat. The Bucks were the NBA’s best team in the regular season. The Raptors had the NBA’s second best record last season.

But, the Celtics lose Gordon Hayward and have an injured Kemba Walker. The Raptors lose Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. The Bucks got Jrue Holiday, but lost all of their depth, while the Heat losing Jae Crowder is an underrated absence, given how he played against Milwaukee in particular.

So, I think the East is going to have a new representative in the NBA Finals. The Brooklyn Nets will now have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant on the same team. Both players looked great in the first preseason game, and while the injury is a massive worry, the Nets could be dynamic.

They have Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert as well as Jarrett Allen in the paint to go with DeAndre Jordan and they are rightfully priced at around $3.60 to win the East, behind the Bucks, and I think it’s a great pick.

If you want to go a little deeper, the 76ers, under the stewardship of Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey, have great value at $8. The team has shooting with Seth Curry and Danny Green replacing Al Horford and Josh Richardson and that could be what Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid need. Plus, they are threatening to be a James Harden destination.

Betting Strategy

BACK — The Brooklyn Nets to win the Eastern Conference at $3.60+


Western Conference

It’s tough to repeat. The Lakers at under $2 is a strong pass for me. There isn’t value there for a team that is going to be exhausted and may find themselves out of the home court advantage business if they go easy in the regular season.

The Clippers have been lambasted all offseason. Paul George, aka Wayoff P, got an extension that ‘The Internet’ killed and there seems to be consistent chatter about the issues in the locker room. Montrezl Harrell is gone, but Serge Ibaka replaces him, which may be a better fit and Luke Kennard is a clear upgrade over Landry Shamet.

Not many are talking about the Clippers, which might be enough, under new coach Ty Lue, to allow them to channel their disappointment into an historic Finals run. The value at $4.60 looks pretty good for me.

If you want a deeper option, the Mavericks, with potential MVP Luka Dončić, could be a team that moves forward ahead of their timeline. If Porziņģis can return at full health, this Mavericks team, which challenged the Clippers last year with an injured Porziņģis, could be a surprise squad to make the NBA Finals in Dončić’s third season. And the value at $13 is very nice.

Betting Strategy

BACK — The LA Clippers to win the Western Conference at $4.60+


NBA Championship

So, I’m picking the Clippers and the Nets to win their respective conferences, and both of their prices for the title look like they are providing good value. Last season, I picked the Clippers and that wasn’t great in hindsight. So, have I learned my lesson?

Absolutely not. The Clippers at $8.20 are my pick for the NBA title for the 2020-21 season. If this doesn’t work out, I am never picking the Clippers again.

Betting Strategy

BACK — The LA Clippers to win the NBA Championship at $8.00+


2019-21 Results

All bets are 1 unit.

Total Units Staked: 293.00

Total Units Returned: 329.49

ROI: 12.45%


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