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After a solid stint of clay tennis, the focus of the ATP and WTA tour now turns to Paris, with the second Grand Slam of the calendar year, Roland-Garros, kicking off its main draw this coming Sunday May 22.
It has been a rollercoaster year on both the men’s and women’s tour to kick off 2022, and it shapes to be a fascinating fortnight of main draw tennis. Let’s take a look at some of the key storylines as we look towards Paris.
Can anyone escape from Alcaraz?
After needing to make his way through qualifying in the 2021 edition of Roland-Garros, Carlos Alcaraz now finds himself at the top of the outright market with another Spaniard who I will discuss shortly.
Alcaraz bulked up over the tennis off-season and showed in the early stages of the year that he could match it with most players on the hardcourt. After losing to Seb Korda in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz has gone on an impressive run, including defeating Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back in Madrid, having started as a favourite in both matches.
The big question, given his short outright odds, is can he sustain it over best-of-5 for a Grand Slam fortnight?
Can Nadal do it again?
Spanish tennis has been in a great place for the last fifteen years thanks to Rafa, and looks to be in safe hands for the decade ahead. Nadal has won the title in Paris THIRTEEN times, owns the crowd support against almost any player, and commands respect given his record.
His chronic injuries flared up again in Rome versus Denis Shapovalov and he will be in a race against time to be at a physical level to handle a gruelling fortnight, so fast and early wins will be key.
With Nadal ranked at 5 and Alcaraz at 6, the draw is going to be crucial here, with the potential for both players to end up in the same quarter.
Novak under the radar
After commanding the attention of not only all tennis fans, but all Australians with the immigration issues in the lead-up to the Australian Open, it is a slightly more subdued lead-up to Roland Garros for Novak Djokovic.
He has only played a handful of tournaments, however he has built his form in each, culminating with winning the ATP Rome title last week.
At the end of the day, Novak is hunting Grand Slams, and is likely to build his way into the fortnight. He needs to be respected here, and where he draws in relation to Nadal and Alcaraz will be crucial.
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Beware the unseeded ATP floaters
When the draw comes out for the men, it is worth keeping an eye on the location of a number of unseeded players who could cause some genuine grief on the clay. These include
- Tommy Paul
- Aslan Karatsev
- Sebastian Baez
- Pedro Martinez
- Holger Rune
- Albert Ramos
- Cristian Garin
- Alex Molcan
- David Goffin
- Francisco Cerundolo
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Filip Krajinovic
- Fabio Fognini
- Laslo Djere
as well as a couple of former Grand Slam winners in Dominic Thiem and Stan Wawrinka.
This has all the makings of a super fortnight of men’s tennis!
Can anyone stop Swiatek?
It didn’t take the women’s tour all that long to find out who was going to take over from Ashleigh Barty at the top of the tour pecking order.
Iga Swiatek is now well clear on top of the rankings, winning titles in Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart and Rome. So… who can beat her? Maria Sakkari got the better of Swiatek on a damp day in Paris last year, and Swiatek’s most nervous looking appearances in 2022 came in the later stages of the Australian Open.
Can she handle the pressure as the fortnight unfolds and talk of her winning streak continues? It will be interesting to see her draw.
Will there be a surprise this year?
Ash Barty retired during her second round match last year as the number 1 seed, throwing the draw into disarray. There ended up being chaos at almost every turn of the women’s draw in 2021, with Barbora Krejcikova winning the final 6-1 2-6 6-4 against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
Not only were they first-time Finallists, but we also saw Maria Sakkari and Tamara Zidansek make deep runs to the semi finals.
Two players who lost epic quarter finals in Paula Badosa and Elena Rybakina are chances to feature again late in the fortnight this year, or could we see an Emma Raducanu-style run from someone off the radar?
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Will the number 2 WTA contender please stand up?
Since Barty retired, Swiatek is the only player who has been able to stand up and assert their dominance at the top of the tour. World number 2 Barbora Krejcikova hasn’t been playing a lot of tennis of late, and then those ranked 3 to 8 have one just Grand Slam final appearance between them (Karolina Pliskova last year).
Ons Jabeur has stepped up her level on the clay in the last month, whilst Paula Badosa has improved her big-game play over the last 12 months. Who can take a stranglehold on the number 2 position?
Beware of the conditions
It is worth considering the number of variables that can come into play on the outdoor clay.
Temperature can play a key role on how clay plays, as does moisture. The conditions may look incredibly lively in the heat of the day, and the next day rain may dampen things significantly (unless players are scheduled to play under the roof).
Wind can also play a role across the course of the fortnight, and it’s worth taking a good look at the conditions to consider the impact it can have on match-up styles.
New final set rules in play
New rules have come into play at Roland-Garros this year.
While we saw 9-7 and an 8-6 third set results in the women’s quarter finals last year, we won’t be seeing that again this year. All the Grand Slams have decided that the same rules are to apply across all Grand Slams, meaning we will see the match tiebreaks (first to 10) occurring in Paris in the same style to those we saw in Melbourne earlier this year.
Keep this in mind when considering in-play odds late in matches.
Beware of the long ATP head-to-head odds
As with other Grand Slams, you will notice some significantly one-sided odds match-ups in the early rounds of Grand Slams when the top men are in action.
While it can be tempting to jump into odds that you don’t see every week for standard tennis matches, it is worth remembering why the big names seem to make it deep into the fortnight so consistently. It is more difficult for the underdog players to knock off the top players, as they need to win over the larger sample of best-of-5 sets – just ask Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The Greek world number 5 led by two sets to 0 in the Final at Roland-Garros last year against Novak Djokovic before falling in five sets. Motivation should be high from all players for the fortnight.
