EXPERT RUGBY TIPS: STATE OF ORIGIN GAME 3
STATE OF ORIGIN III PREVIEW AND TIPS | RUGBY / NRL | WEDNESDAY JULY 9TH 2025
New South Wales v Queensland
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Queensland +8.5 for 3 units (Rated at $1.70)
Despite us heading into a decider at Accor, it is hard to make a case that the Blues have not dominated the series. They have dominated possession, have run for at least 150 metres and 100 post-contact metres more each game and have dominated tackle breaks. The series is level though. Part of that goes down to a 10-2 penalty count but part of it goes down to the wastefulness of the Blues and what has really been some disappointing spine play from the Blues. That is unlikely to be remedied in the decider with Laurie Daley not making any changes, a Hallmark of his first stint that saw one win from five series at the helm. Luai and Robson are hardly reliable propositions in a big decider while Nathan Cleary has yet to leave an imprint on the Origin stage. The Maroons have made two key positive changes led by the return from retirement of prop Josh Papalii, exactly what the Maroons need. Queensland have a great record in deciders, winning seven of nine, while the last four deciders have been decided by 10 or fewer. Queensland are also 5-3 in the last eight live matches at Accor. The 8.5 points just seems too big.
BACK: (Total Points) Under 43.5 for 2.5 units (Rated at $1.70)
There is no doubt that State of Origin has taken a small turn in terms of style the last two years with three of the last five hitting 48 points or more. This is a decider though and a low-scoring match is very much on the cards. The opening two matches of last year sailed over the total before an 18-point decider. Deciders are low-scoring matches with seven of the last nine finishing 34 or fewer. The under 43.5 is a very nice bet.
BACK: (Player of the Match ) Harry Grant for 1 unit (Rated at $9.00)
Spine members have won 14 of the last 18 Origin Man of the Match awards and if Queensland are to win, Harry Grant looks their key. The Maroons will get more punch with Josh Papalii in the team, giving Grant more space to operate. He plays huge minutes – he could play 80 – and gets through a ton of work, usually important. Cam Munster would be the worry but it is incredibly rare a player wins the gong back-to-back with Sam Backo the last two do it within a series in 1988. Expect a big performance from Grant.
BACK: (To Score A Try) Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow for 2 units (Rated at $2.30)
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has an astonishing tryscoring record at Origin level with 11 tries in nine games. His 47 tries in 61 games at fullback is better than his record at centre and wing.
Want to learn how to lay bet?
When you place a lay bet, you are betting on something not to happen. Let’s think about the Melbourne Cup again. Remember: there can only be one winner. But what about the others trailing behind them? If you place a lay bet in a “Win” market, you can celebrate if the runner tails off at the back of the field.
STATE OF ORIGIN TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betfair’s State of Origin Tips
Are you ready to take your State of Origin betting to the next level? The State of Origin series is back in 2025, promising electrifying rugby league action as the Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues renew their fierce rivalry. As a Betfair enthusiast, you’re in the perfect position to make the most of this thrilling sporting event. Here, we’ll provide you with expert tips and strategies to enhance your State of Origin betting experience and increase your chances of success.
Before diving into the tips, let’s quickly recap the significance of the State of Origin series. Originating in 1980, this rugby league spectacle features three matches between Queensland and New South Wales. The series is known for its intense rivalry and passionate atmosphere, with players representing their state with immense pride.
To make informed betting decisions, it’s crucial to conduct thorough research and analysis. What better place to start that right here on the Betfair Hub! Our experts will focus on games 1, 2, and 3 of the 2024 series, analyzing the previous head-to-head records between Queensland and New South Wales to identify any trends or historical advantages. We also offer betting tips across all NRL matches.
They’ll also include key player statistics in their past performances in the State of Origin series, look for standout performers, and assess their potential impact on the upcoming games. Additionally, they’ll pay attention to external factors such as weather conditions, as they can significantly influence gameplay and outcomes, the importance of home-ground advantage, and the impact of injuries or suspensions on team dynamics.
Now that you have a solid foundation of knowledge, let’s explore some effective State Of Origin betting strategies on the Betfair Exchange.
Types of Bets
- Moneyline bets: This straightforward bet involves wagering on the overall match winner.
- Point spread bets: Consider handicapping and bet on whether a team will win by a certain margin.
- Over/under bets: Wager on whether the total number of points scored in a match will be over or under a specified amount.
Tips for Successful Betting - Stay informed: Continuously research and stay updated on team news, recent form, and player performances.
- Historical trends: Examine past State of Origin outcomes to identify any recurring patterns.
- Assess team morale: Consider team dynamics, motivation levels, and the impact of key players on team performance.
Money Management
- Set a budget: Allocate a specific amount for your State of Origin bets to avoid overspending.
- Avoid chasing losses: Don’t let emotions dictate your betting decisions. Stick to your strategy and avoid reckless betting to recover losses.
- Practice responsible gambling: Enjoy the State of Origin matches responsibly and bet within your limits.
While predictions can never be entirely certain, they can provide valuable insights into potential outcomes and betting opportunities.
Throughout the series, keep an eye on this page for information regarding key players who have historically performed well in State of Origin matches. Also keep an eye out for updates to strategies and game-changers that could shape the games. Remember, it’s essential to consider multiple viewpoints and sources to make well-informed decisions.
For this State Of Origin, there is only one location to keep you equipped with the top expert tips and strategies to elevate your wagering IQ. As you gear up for the highly anticipated State of Origin series, remember to head to the Betfair Hub and this page for the latest research, analysis, and betting strategies, and if you’d like to place a bet, head to the Betfair Exchange now!
