KALGOORLIE PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY OCTOBER 5TH 2024
RAIL: True TRACK: Good 4
Really fair track all season. Obviously, it isn’t a 4 back the fence type deck, but it’s been as reliable a track as we’ve seen in WA.
7. Ahrea
8. Polyanova
6. Please Mizter
1. De Zane Grey
Betting Strategy
Differing form lines make this race a nightmare to dissect. For most of the Kalgoorlie season, the visitors have dominated the maidens which gives me a lean toward Ahrea, who was a super effort with the apprentice fresh (albeit in a very weak maiden) and Polyvanova, who maps to stalk the speed and drops weight on what appears an easier assignment. That’s your starting point. Please Mizter should hold the top and wasn’t far from Science Degree (won by 32L on Wednesday) last time out. De Zane Grey is a 20 start maiden so the market won’t come for him, but he’s racing super and gets a nice map. Problem with 20 start maidens is they tend to become 21 start maidens.
1. Uncompromised
3. Don’t Wait For Luck
2. Decoration
5. Kolchino
Betting Strategy
The pads going on Don’t Wait For Luck hasn’t stopped punters diving in early (~2.7 to 1.9). Reckon I would have been the first queueing up for some $2.7 without the protective footwear, but with it, happy to let a good horse go around without mine. That move is pushing out Uncompromised to an EW (7 horse field, top 2 only) price. The effort in town was insanely good against some very sharp operators and his prior effort, at this deck, with this weight, sustaining a run against an in form Red Cadillac was huge. Monitor the price, shouldn’t be getting to $5+. Decoration gets a great map. He’s grittier than most of Benny Scarfs investments and won’t be easy to get past. Kolchino copped a Barry Crocker midweek. Loves Kal and has gone super off quick spins in the past. Just tend to think this might be out of his pay grade.
4. Secret Attraction
2. Exceltrain
1. Lord Gannicus
5. Mountain Ash
Betting Strategy
Secret Attraction might just about be the most exciting horse in WA. While she probably should have won a Belmont Oaks, she simply looks a different horse under the care of Peter Fernie and I wouldn’t blame him at aiming for the stars with her. Amazingly she’s one of 5 ex-Bob Peters runners on this program who will go around firm in the market (Uncompromised, Abloh, Ryewood & Secret Style the others). Not impossible the 5 of them earn the best part of 200k prize money on the day. Might be a good idea for Bob to pop to the movies for the arvo. Exceltrain is humming. Love the jump and run tactics – it’ll be interesting how it and Mountain Ash sort themselves out. Pretty thin from there, the $1.45 Secret Attraction is justified.
3. Pearly Nuggett
5. Full Of Merit
4. Secret Identity
1. Reign Of Fire
Betting Strategy
Few different ways to attack this race. Full Of Merit will understandably be popular. Pike, on speed, second up and the form has been franked (to a degree). I am just very wary that her favourite beverage is milk. Not a horse you’d trust with your life. Reign Of Fire has settled into Kalgoorlie seemlessly. Both efforts super/luckless behind Colossal. Just always wary with the apprentices on sit and sprinters. Pearly Nuggett draws wide, which may dictate their hand to lead this? In a race of battlers, being in front could be a huge positive (won her maiden leading @ 1300, hasn’t found the fence in front since). Secret Identity is a Kalgoorlie winner and maps well, while Ruling Dame won’t know herself from 1 (drawn 14, 9, 13, 10, 11 since arriving in the region).
3. Influencing
2. No Change
4. Abloh
1. Staralign
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. Influencing (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.50)
Influencing clearly enjoyed being back on top of the ground at her most recent after a couple of flat ones to kick off her prep. It only gets firmer in Kal, she’s a big weight dropper (carried 59-60 most of last prep beating horses like Bondi Plunge & Fly With Caution) and draws soft. The only caveat with her is that the other speed horses Counter Drive & Roey Clam will jump millions. Would love to see her hold the front and not end up behind them. Loved the effort of No Change in the Hannans on Wednesday. A mile out of his grade (73 rater in a 90+), he surprisingly led and stuck on well. Barely goes up in the weights, drops panels in class, gets the services of Chris Parnham and his last effort off 3 days was huge, carrying 64.5kg’s in Broome. Seems to go better ridden ugly, happy to save. Abloh will be hoping the 2 roughies cross to lead, setting it up for the backmarker, while Staralign was another who was a superb run in the Hannans midweek.
BACK: 2. No Change (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $4.80)
Loved the effort of No Change in the Hannans on Wednesday. A mile out of his grade (73 rater in a 90+), he surprisingly led and stuck on well. Barely goes up in the weights, drops panels in class, gets the services of Chris Parnham and his last effort off 3 days was huge, carrying 64.5kg’s in Broome
6. Eevalina
4. Dance Of Thunder
5. Dreamtime Jean
3. Laquetta’s Gift
Betting Strategy
BACK: 6. Eevalina (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.90)
I’ve had a theory most of the Kalgoorlie season that the 58+’s have actually been deeper than the 70+’s which really works in the favour of the mighty mare, Eevalina. Her efforts in those 58’s around Secret Style and Zing To Win have been enormous and her run on Wednesday was as good as you’ll see on a slow tempo with a big weight from a wide gate. Should land handier here, drops weight and is this any harder? I don’t think so. If she handles the quick back-up (always the unknown), she’s the one to beat. Dreamtime Jean loves this deck and looks your likely leader. Dance Of Thunder is honest and maps low for the flying Lucy Fiore while Pike will look to have the final crack with Laquetta’s Gift.
7. Ryewood
2. Zaza Rock
6. Deel Red
11. Olden
Betting Strategy
BACK: 7. Ryewood (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.50)
There should be reasonable tempo in this with Deel Red and Olden scooting along out in front. I’m hoping that genuine tempo does eventuate, as Ryewood can get a little keen at times when they put the brakes on. Given she settles, this looks a great setup for her. Maps to land in front of Zaza and Queen Of J and is arguably a better horse than that pair anyway. Happy to bet. Zaza Rock copped a 10 from Kyra beating a couple of battlers in Comealilbitcloser and Where’s My Lunch in the Toodyay Cup. Always respect G&A Williams improving stayers but the $1.9 looks thin from the widest alley. The old boy Deel Red will give a nice kick with Brad Parnham aboard. His 1 win from 37 goes at the track (in easier than this) doesn’t enthuse, however.
2. Starry Heights
5. Iowa
7. Stop Dreaming
3. Another Chino
Betting Strategy
The Secret Attraction – Starry Heights combo will be popular in a lot of multis and it’s understandable why. He simply went past this exact same field like they were standing still a fortnight ago and has probably earnt early Perth Cup favouritism on that run. Should win again. Iowa the obvious danger. I suspect the camp will go in with the mindset that the only way they beat him is to nick it from the front, so perhaps look for some more aggressive tactics here. Stop Dreaming is the POD runner. I actually thought he was a better run than Iowa when they met a month ago. The problem is the 6kg’s in Iowa’s favour…
12. Secret Style
3. Sunny Honey
2. Under Influence
7. Zing To Win
Betting Strategy
BACK: 12. Secret Style (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.30)
Secret Style has been simply dominant since landing in Kal. She is jumping in races chock-full of speed and leading comfortably, so despite the speed in this event, I suspect she can do the same here. While this is significantly harder, she gets in on the minimum and is winning like a horse who is nowhere near her mark. She can keep ‘The Ron’ local. Sunny Honey is in career best. 3rd to Toropa/Rope Them In is serious form. Just wary what type of traffic he finds in the run. Under Influence will be suited by the tempo in this. If it turns into a mess up front, look for him or Zing To Win to be the ones motoring out wide late. Found it very hard to map Pin Deep or Prospector’s Pick (presume they will have to ride the latter with cover?) to be competitive.