EXPERT RACING TIPS: BALAKLAVA

BALAKLAVA PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 4TH 2024

Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. Somewhere Soon (WIN) for 2 units

Somewhere Soon was a real eye-catcher last start when came from well back at Strathalbyn for 3rd when hard in the market. Draws to settle a bit closer here and the step up to the mile looks to suit. Lightly weighted with the 2kg claim. Looks hers to lose. Saint Boom ran 2nd on debut albeit 5L from a dominant winner in Sakusu. The form from that race is holding up very strongly. Will be better for the run and extra 20m looks to suit. Cracken Good Time has been OK lately and was a close 2nd at Gawler when leading last time out. Should race on pace and give a good sight with the 3kg claim. Giftera was pretty average on debut but is in the right stable for open improvement.

Lachlan Mosley

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Betting Strategy

Esky was heavily backed two back for a dominant win then just couldn’t get into things at Town last time out. This is a drop back in grade and gets in well with the claim for Brooke King. Stepping up in trip to the 2200m but has won over 2050m a few starts ago. Chosen Miss is another dropping back from metro level and while an 7th last start was only 2.2L away at the finish. She always puts in a good performance at this track/distance.The stablemate Got An Inspiration won nicely with ease at Murray Bridge last time out. Is 1/1 track/distance and gets a couple of kilos off. Can win again. Savatoff got moving late well first up for the in-form Paula Trenwith stable when 2nd at Strathalbyn. Will take improvement from that and Jake Toeroek sticks the ride.

Betting Strategy

This is a highly competitive MDN with some of these horses looking like they have a future. Purfect Line was in the market on debut but didn’t do much in a very strong metro MDN. Given time off and time to mature. They stable are very good at getting these new horses going for the races. Whine For Whine is another horse resuming from a strong metro MDN when made good ground late for 1.3L 4th. Given time to mature and the Andrew Gluyas yard is flying. Expect a forward showing. Cosmic Ride has fitness in the legs with two OK returns from a break. Draws well here and always respect a stable like Mick Price when he brings them over. Mystic Wonder trials like a superstar but he can’t bring it to the race track for some reason. Stable have a wrap on him but he just needs to bring it game day. Worth throwing in the exotics.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Guru Warrior (WIN & PLACE) for 2 units

Guru Warrior is open to improvement after a debut 4L 8th at Strathalbyn when the horse was slow into stride but made some good headway along the rails late. Will be fitter for it and gets a 2kg claim. Stable on fire! High Garden is a recent edition to the Bain/Taylor yard and ran really well on stable debut for a close 2nd at Gawler. Will be looking for this extra trip now and draws softly with Jason Holder aboard. Can go one better. Tennesee Magic was a bit plain late first up over the 1100m for 5L 7th when well found in betting after a recent trial performance. Will take benefit, be looking for this further trip and the winkers come off. Can bounce back. Respect S.P last time out. Gold Spy didn’t have a great deal of luck last start when che ked in running but came home well for 6th. Previous form warrants selection and rarely runs a bad race. Deserves to be this price.

Lachlan Mosley

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Betting Strategy

Royal Trapeze can go one better here after a really good closing 2nd at this track/distance last time out. The Stephen Theodore yard is on fire of late and the horse has never finished further back than 2nd in 3 career runs at Balaklava. Cuban Waters comes from the same race running 3rd albeit 3.9L away. Shes a pretty honest lightly-raced 5yo mare than draws well here. Should be around the finish. Winning Aura made good ground here late against the pattern over 1050m here. Steps up 150m in trip here and gets a 2kg claim for Caitlin Tootell. Shisuta Bo was in the market at metro level last start but lead and knocked up. The horse report said the horse was distressed in the run so it might be worth forgiving here right back in class. Draws well and Pannell sticks.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. Devil’s Dextar (WIN) for 2 units

Devil’s Dextar made good headway from a long way back at this track over 1400m for 4th. Will only be suited now to the step up to the mile and draws to settle much closer in the run. Ready to peak 3rd up. Prancing Countess has the right form lines with a win two back and a close 2nd here last start when 2nd to a pretty smart San Lucido. This probably is easier and has good form here at Balaklava. Hard to see her not figuring in the finish. Archdeacon is coming back from metro level when running OK at BM72 level. This is a clear drop in grade and previous form would warrant selections. Enlist is a bit of an enigma but does have the ability to figure in the finish here. Has a really honest record at Balaklava and has placed both times here over the trip.

Lachlan Mosley

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Betting Strategy

Not bet race to end the day. Garrire’s best is good enough but he’s changed hands as I actually used to own a clip of him because he was too unreliable. Noticed the horse has been met with early support. Has a good record here but take on trust. Derby Downs was a forgive performance at Gawler when raced in tight room but kept trying when the race was all over. He raced in some pretty strong metro races last prep so must be respected in a very low event like this. Deserves to be favourite. The Ladies Man was only 0.6L away from Flambard at this track last time out. Flambard is a genuine City horse when right. Thats a good strong form reference for this and Paula Trenwith is going well of late. Hasslefree ran a good 3rd here at odds last time out. A repeat of that would have him in the mix here but he does mix form.