EXPERT RACING TIPS: BALAKLAVA

BALAKLAVA PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | WEDNESDAY AUGUST 21ST 2024

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Wild Winner (WIN) for 2 units

Wild Winner last start when held up for runs but worked home well for 2L 5th. Jason Holder sticks the ride and blinkers go on first time. Can improve again.Small field but quality event to kick off the day. Big Brute looks to have some talent and is coming off and excellent closing 2nd at Flemington behind the ultra talented Detroit City. Has the best race day form and is proven over the 1400m. Loved the debut of Discreetly Blue who settled a long way off them and powered home into 0.6L 3rd behind the talented Duchess Of Sussex. Will take benefit from that and appreciate stepping up from the 1050m to 1400m. Looks promising.. Can improve again. Queenoftheair was a dominant winner 2nd up in a hot race at Morphettville Parks. She’s done nothing wrong in both career starts and should be around the mark again. City quality race.

Betting Strategy

Peta’s Heart was excellent on debut making up good ground at Balaklava on a leader bias surface for a close up 3rd.Will derive benefit from that and is in the correct powerful stable for sharp improvement. Draws well and Eaton sticks. Thinkininetynine was racing in god from but didn’t have much go right the past two starts. Should appreciate dropping back from metro grade here and has excellent form here at Balaklava. Extra Bounce is working towards a win without much luck the past two starts. Draws for a soft run and gets in light with the claim. Hard Leaf is racing well without winning. Like the fact a senior is going on for the first time in a while. Should be around the mark.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 13. Little Princess (WIN) for 2 units

Think Little Princess is working towards that MDN win with a couple of excellent placings since joining the Clarken/Oshea camp.The most recent was a narrow 2nd at Morphettville metro level when only just grabbed on the line by the very talented Duchess Of Sussex. This is clearly a massive drop in grade and looks the one to beat. Prodical Lad was OK at Strathalbyn for 0.7L 4th. Looks all over a winner but just wiltered in the final few strides. Has yet to place in 6 career runs but is never far off them at the finish with four fourths to the horse name. Dubai Focus returns from a spell and raced without success in some pretty handy juvenile races last prep. This is an easier task here and looks solid enough at the recent trials. Is in the right yard to show up fresh. Sav On Ice makes his debut here after trialing 5 times before race debut. Obviously has needed time to mature so perhaps watch any market moves fresh. Nice 4kg claim too!

Betting Strategy

Shocking staying MDN but one horse will eventually finally break through. Think that horse is Mandino. He’s 9 placings from 12 starts and the only horse that races in any sort of consistent fashion. Missed by a whisker at Strathalbyn behind Savsonic. Surely goes one better here. Bush Influence was luckless two back and proved that was strong form when starting big odds last start and worked home well for 3rd a couple of lengths behind Mandino. Last three runs have been full of merit. Holder sticks and should be around the mark here. Rhinestone Rory is another racing OK without winning. All 5 runs of late have been close up and solid efforts. Should be thereabouts again. Draws well. Normie No Show is a bit hit and miss with form but is in the right stable to make vast improvement stepping up to the 2100m. He’s a bit of a grinder so the extra trip helps.

Betting Strategy

One of those mid-week staying shockers clogging up the card! Puissay Galore was extremely disappointing as favourite but did have a few little traffic issues at the start of the race and never got into contention after that. Happy to forgive that and previous form at metro level was solid enough for a weak race like this. D’Isles is racing pretty well this prep. A 2nd and a dominant winner at Gawler on soft/heavy tracks followed up by an OK effort in a much stronger race than this. Obviously drops in class here and reunites with Rochelle Milnes who has a good record on the horse. King Of Avalon is racing in consistent fashion this prep. Led them up here three back and was close up for 3rd. Followed up by a couple of honest 3rds. Looks the likely leader here and they will prove hard to run down if the track plays to it’s likely bias. Tametoto is on the 4 day back up after giving a sight in town rolling in-front before fading badly. Drops in class here and might imply the same tactics and prove hard to get past.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Everglade (WIN) for 2 units

Brilliant effort by Everglade at metro level last start when slow out and was making inside runs from well back and really pounced through the line well for 4th in tough conditions. He’s done nothing wrong in all 4 starts for the Aaron Bain/Ned Taylor stable. Drops in grade, draws for a soft run and Stubby Holder sticks the ride. Ticks a few boxes. Santastico has had a handful of starts across on the Ballarat synthetic track to obviously avoid the wet and wintery tracks of Adelaide so the trainer should be stoked to see Balaklava has come up with a good 4 surface. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race and is 1/1 at Balaklava. Can win again. Katim’s Club is another horse with a brilliant record at Balaklava with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 attempts here. Ran a narrow 2nd at Naracoorte resuming but will take benefit from that. 2nd up form reads well, draws well and goes well with Sam Payne aboard. Mr Trafficanti was a dominant first up winner for Grant Young after being transferred across from the Gavin Bedggood yard. Proved he was upto city level last start with a nice run on effort for 3L 7th in a hot race. Drops back in grade and can win again.

Betting Strategy

Dont really like this race. Not many horses in the event are going much good. Bangerang Redback was met with good market support first up for the Garrett Lynch yard and loomed up all over a winner but was just beaten in the final strides. Sure to have come on from that. is a 2x winner at the distance and is well placed with the claim for Tala Hutchinson. Belmont Avenue is going OK without firing a shot of late. Loomed to win in town last start but gave out late. Will find this easier for recent racing, draws well, nice claim and finished 2nd only start at Balaklava. Bywaters Road was a light-weight all the way winner here 2 back before being only fair last time out. Looks the likely leader here with the bias and claim and should give them something chase. Commanding Reign was OK here last time out for a close up 5th. Could improve in a race that lacks anything at all! Shocker

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Stokomo (WIN) for 2 units

A little bit better of a race here. Stokomo is lightly raced and has shown a bit of promise early in the career. Was in the market first up in town but only whacked away for 5L 5th. Perhaps he wasn’t suited to the Soft 6 fresh as all the horses career runs were on good surfaces. Forgiving that and expecting the horse to bounce back down in grade here. Jake Toeroek sticks.

BACK: 11. Pulambi (WIN) for 1 unit

Pulambi was excellent first up when running on solidly from the tail for 3rd over the 1100m. Fitter for that, goes well at Balaklava, draws well and 2nd up form good. Crowther sticks. Ticks plenty of boxes! Jacob’s Gate was a good winner here 3 back before being OK the past two. Like the fact Tegan Voorham gets back aboard (winner on him 3 back) Track stats very good. Allegedly was in great form running 3 placings in a row before copping some interference last start and throwing in the towel. Prepapred to forgive that effort and has placed only start at the track.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Arugamama (WIN) for 1 unit

Great race here. Form for the later spring should go well here. Second To Nun is the top weight and was the winner of the listed Leon MacDonald race leading into this but I think the track pattern and big weight swings vs key rivals might make the difference here. Arugamama is a talented mare who had absolutely zero luck last start behind Maracourt. She’s fitter for recent racing and could be the surprise packet here. She comes from the different form reference and meets Maracourt 2kg better at the weights.

BACK: 4. My Khalifa (WIN) for 1 unit

My Khalifa is racing very well this prep and is building a good association with Dom Tourneur in the saddle. Was a bit luckless behind Second To Nun but ran through the line nicely when it was all over. Well weighted and while he’s yet to place at the mile in 3 attempts, seems a more furnished horse this prep to do so.

BACK: 3. Air Assault (WIN) for 1 unit

Air Assault led them up on a hot speed and was a sitting duck late for 3.9L 10th. He’s drawn wide but is a natural front runner and will be suited by any Balaklava lane/track bias (which you know there will be) If he can stack them up for a couple of splits in running then he will be hard to run down.

BACK: 5. Lord Vladivostock (WIN) for 1 unit

Lord Vladivostock stuck on well for 5th in the same race. He’s very well treated at the weights dropping 5kg in weight and has excellent 2nd up form. Big improver.

Betting Strategy

Liked to have backed a winner in the Balaklava Cup so we don’t have to touch this. Jimmy’s Edge has the best Balaklava form only missing a place one here in 5 attempts. Was a bit slow out last start and forced to hunt up to the lead and was a sitting shot late. Looks well placed with the 4kg claim for new apprentice Sophie Mitchell and I dare say the horse will only have one tactic here on a bias surface. Madam Furphy doesn’t win out of turn but always runs good closing races from the tail. If they over-cook the speed then this is the one that could make good ground late. Generally pokes around at metro grade so might find this easier than recent racing. 900m to 1050m suits too. Tupoleu is dropping a fair way back in class after finishing last in a BM68 at Morphettville. Had no luck on that occasions so it might pay to forgive. Eastside Diamond is another horse that likes to lead and could match motors with Jimmy’s Edge here. 4kg claim brings her into calculations here and draws to get to the top fairly easily.