AFL: BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR

Betfair’s unique Brownlow Medal predictor offers game-by-game analysis and vote predictions for every round of the 2022 AFL premiership season. Need a Brownlow tracker? View the interactive Brownlow Medal predictor leaderboard below, where you can sort the vote allocations by every individual team.

The Brownlow Medal predictor has successfully tipped the winner of the Brownlow Medal for the past three consecutive seasons. So if you’re looking for the best insights on future Brownlow Medal betting – look no further than Betfair’s Brownlow Medal predictor!

Click here to view the Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange.


2022 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR | HOW IT WORKS?

Voting Method

This is how Betfair’s Brownlow Tracker works. Six Brownlow Medal votes are assigned to each game, however, the Betfair predictive method does not follow the 3-2-1 formula of the AFL. Votes vary from 0.5 to 3, allowing for more than three players to be acknowledged. This means less players are overlooked, and when the model is confident, more Brownlow votes can be allocated to a particular player. The trap of allocating 3-2-1 is that there are many matches with few standout players, and impactful 3s and 2s can be allocated to players that the umpires didn’t notice. Brownlow tracker & predictions below. 

Voting Tiers

3 votes: Clearly the best player on the ground

2.5 votes: Questionably the best player on the ground

2 votes: Clear second best player on the ground or possible best in a crowded field

1.5 votes: Potentially second best player on the ground, often shared by multiple players

1 vote: Likely third best, but can be shared by multiple players

0.5 votes: Wasn’t the standout but their influence should be acknowledged


 

2022 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR | LEADERBOARD TRACKER

 

2022 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR | WEEKLY ANALYSIS | ROUND 15

Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions

2 – Jack Viney
1 – Christian Petracca
1 – Luke Jackson
1 – Jake Lever
– Clayton Oliver

There were plenty of contributors for the Demons in their return-to-form match against the Lions, but none were more damaging than Jack Viney. The Melbourne tough nut had 34 disposals, seven tackles – including the hit of the year that led to a goal – eight clearances, a game-high ten inside 50s and 19 contested possessions.

Midfield duo Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver were brilliant with 31 and 35 disposals respectively, winning plenty of contested ball and clearances.

In the absence of Max Gawn, Luke Jackson stepped in without missing a beat, winning 21 disposals, nine tackles, 18 hitouts and a goal. With Steven May back in the side, Jake Lever’s intercept game was back to its best, finishing with 15 intercepts and 20 disposals at 90% efficiency.

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Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn

2 – Tom Liberatore
2 – Marcus Bontempelli
1 – Josh Dunkley
– Jack Macrae

All the Bulldogs midfielders were lining up against the Hawks, winning their fair share of the football and dominating the game.

Tom Liberatore was sensational on the inside with 30 disposals, 11 clearances, 16 contested possessions and 12 score involvements – including a goal.

Marcus Bontempelli played his one of his best games of the season playing back in the guts. He finished with 27 disposals, eight clearances, 11 inside 50s, 13 score involvements and a goal. Six of his clearances were straight out of the centre!

Josh Dunkley was crucial in the third term when the scores were tight. He had 27 disposals and kicked two goals. Meanwhile Jack Macrae had his 100th 30+ disposal game, accumulating a game-high 31 disposals, 12 contested possessions and six clearances.

Click here to view the Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange.


West Coast Eagles vs Essendon

3 – Josh J. Kennedy
2 – Willie Rioli
1 – Dylan Shiel

The Eagles were able to win their second game of the season and their first at home, thanks to a fully stacked forward line. Josh Kennedy led the charge and was at his best, kicking five goals straight.

Willie Rioli is now a chance to poll in both of West Coast’s wins this season, kicking three goals to go with 19 disposals.

Dylan Shiel can hold his head high for the Bombers, winning 26 disposals plus a game-high nine clearances and seven inside 50s. He was best of all the midfielders.

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Carlton vs Fremantle

3 – Sam Walsh
1.5 – Charlie Curnow
1.5 – Sam Docherty

Sam Walsh is a near-certainty to collect the three Brownlow votes after his career-high 40 disposal game against the Dockers. He also had seven clearances and 11 inside 50s. This kid is a star.

Charlie Curnow kicked four goals in a low-scoring game to sit atop the Coleman Medal leaderboard.

Sam Docherty rarely ever has a bad game – and this game was no exception. Thirty disposals and 14 marks for the general down back.

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Geelong vs Richmond

2 – Tyson Stengle
2 – Tom Stewart
1 – Jeremy Cameron
– Liam Baker

Tyson Stengle has been one of the pick-ups of the year and is exactly what the Cats need if they’re to win a Premiership, providing pressure and kicking ground-level goals. Stengle kicked three goals from 18 disposals, as well as seven score involvements.

Tom Stewart may have been reported, but the Cats couldn’t have won the game without him. A game-high 29 disposals, 737 metres gained and 17 intercepts for the 3x All Australian.

Jeremy Cameron continues to poll and push up the leaderboard without having to kick bags of goals. His elite kicking and work rate were on full display as he pushed up the ground, finishing with three goals from 16 disposals.

The Tigers’ best player in a close loss was definitely Liam Baker, who had 24 disposals, a game-high 14 contested possessions, eight inside 50s, a team-high seven clearances and a goal.

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Sydney Swans vs St Kilda

3 – Jake Lloyd
2 – Tom Hickey
1 – Nick Blakey

Jake Lloyd was flying against the Saints, playing a season-best game that saw him pick up 39 disposals, nine marks and 10 intercepts in a defence that kept St Kilda to just 32 points.

Tom Hickey is a barometer for the Swans, playing a crucial role in the ruck and winning plenty of the footy. A neat performance with 22 disposals, 15 contested possessions, seven clearances, 17 hit outs and a goal.

The run-and-carry from Nick Blakey was important, finishing with his first ever 30-disposal game of his career. He tallied 31 disposals, eight score invovlments, 11 intercepts and a career-high 28.2 AFL Player Rating points.

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North Melbourne vs Adelaide

3 – Taylor Walker
2 – Rory Laird
1 – Darcy Fogarty

Taylor Walker made the most of their easy match-up with North Melbourne, kicking six goals from his 12 disposals. The last 10 times Walker has kicked 5+ goals in an Adelaide win, he has polled Brownlow votes.

Rory Laird was sensational again in the midfield, with a team-high 34 disposals, 11 clearances and 22 contested possessions, as well as 11 tackles and eight score involvements.

Darcy Fogarty played his best game in a long time, kicking four goals from 20 disposals.

Click here to view the Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange.


Collingwood vs GWS Giants

2 – Darcy Cameron
2 – Stephen Coniglio
1 – Steele Sidebottom
– Jesse Hogan

It was a very even contribution from the Magpies, whose inaccuracy almost cost them, kicking 11 goals 22 behinds and winning by 11 points.

Darcy Cameron was the pick of the Collingwood players, standing up in the ruck with 17 disposals, 23 hit outs, eight marks and 2 goals. A great Brodie Grundy replacement.

Stephen Coniglio was brilliant for GWS with 31 disposals, six tackles, six inside 50s, a goal and two goal assists.

Collingwood wingman Steele Sidebottom was busy early and had a team-high 26 disposals, eight score involvements and a goal. Jesse Hogan proved to be a handful for Collingwood’s defence, with four goals and 17 disposals.

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Port Adelaide vs Gold Coast Suns

3 – Connor Rozee
1 – Dan Houston
1 – Jarrod Witts
– Izak Rankine

Backing up from his brilliant performance against the Swans, Connor Rozee didn’t skip a beat against the Suns in another best-on-ground game. Playing mostly through the midfield, Rozee had 24 disposals, 11 contested possessions and two clutch goals against the flow of play.

Dan Houston was important with ball in hand, finishing with 30 disposals (22 kicks and eight handballs), seven marks and went into the contest for four clearances.

Jarrod Witts was dominant against Finlayson and Dixon in the ruck, winning 41 hit outs to go with 20 disposals (18 contested) and seven score involvements.

Izak Rankine was in blistering form with exciting goals, breathtaking runs and exquisite ball use. He had seven score involvements from 12 disposals and kicked three goals. His run along with wing to take three bounces and hit a player on the chest was one of the highlights of the match.

Karl Amon is stiff to miss out on votes with a rare “triple-double”: 26 disposals, 10 marks and 10 tackles!

Click here to view the Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange.


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WHAT IS THE BROWNLOW MEDAL?

The Brownlow Medal is the AFL’s most prestigious individual prize. The medal, known formally as the Charles Brownlow Trophy, was first presented in 1924, in honour of the former Geelong player and club and league administrator. The Brownlow medallist is recognised as the League’s fairest and best player, as judged by the umpires.

In recent years, the Brownlow Medal count has attracted significant interest as a major event on footy’s social calendar, while also continuing to draw massive patronage from bettors. With wagering interest in the Brownlow skyrocketing, punters are increasingly looking for accurate and updated information and insights to help shape their Brownlow tipping strategies.

Betfair’s unique Brownlow Medal predictor provides expert analysis for each of the 198 AFL home-and-away matches played during the 2022 season including a list of players it predicts will likely have earned the umpires’ votes. Consider the fact Betfair’s Brownlow Medal predictor has successfully predicted the past three winners (Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines in 2021, Brisbane’s Lachie Neale in 2020 and Fremantle’s Nay Fyfe in 2019) and you can understand why it’s considered the leading tool of its type in the AFL wagering space.

Under the current Brownlow Medal voting system, the three field umpires confer after each game and award six votes to the three players considered the fairest and best, on a 3-2-1 basis. However, under the innovative system that underpins Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor, more than three players per match can be identified as predicted vote-winners, ‘earning’ a minimum of 0.5 votes and a maximum of 3 from a six-tier voting scale. Betfair’s data scientists and betting analysts believe this broader vote allocation system better captures more players’ valuable or outstanding performances while simultaneously lessening the impact of the narrow 3-2-1 system than can, by its nature, ignore impactful players who might not necessarily have caught the umpires’ attention, particularly in games dominated by one or two individuals.

After each round, a leaderboard showing how many votes Betfair’s Brownlow predictor tips players to receive is updated, with individual Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange adjusted accordingly. This ‘live’ feature enables punters to stay updated with predicted player movement up and down the leaderboard, providing them with ample opportunity to adjust their Brownlow wagering strategies throughout the course of the AFL season.

Under contemporary Brownlow rules, multiple winners are declared when two or more players finish with the same number of votes. In 2003, for example, Adelaide’s Mark Ricciuto, Collingwood’s Nathan Buckley and Sydney’s Adam Goodes each polled 22 votes and were declared Brownlow medallists. This element of the award broadens punters’ options and allows for more intricate wagering strategies, particularly when using Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor as a guide. It’s also worth noting that although players who have been suspended for on-field indiscretions during a season can still receive votes for their performances, they are ineligible to win that year’s Brownlow Medal.

Importantly, as part of Betfair’s approach of putting bettors first by giving them multiple options to capitalise on their investments, punters can choose to back or lay any player as part of their Brownlow wagering considerations.

As Australia’s largest betting exchange, Betfair continues to broaden its wagering options and expand the cutting-edge information, expert analysis and data it offers punters who are keen to extract maximum value when investing. To take advantage of tools including the innovative Brownlow Medal predictor, sign up to Betfair today and start realising the benefits.

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