2019 Brownlow Medal Predictor

Betfair’s pro punting team, The Analysts, have created a 2019 Brownlow predictor. You can see the leaderboard and every vote below.


2019 Brownlow Predictor

Without further ado, please enjoy Betfair’s 2019 Brownlow Predictor. The Analysts have assigned votes to every single game and our populated leaderboard can be sorted by team votes.

You’ll notice that 2019 Brownlow Predictor skews towards midfielders and winning teams. A ruckman, power forward or key defender hasn’t won the award for 26 years, which is why The Analysts are more likely to Lay Max Gawn and Brody Grundy, rather than back them.

If you want to see our Analyst’s preview of who they tipped before the season, click here.


2019 Leaderboard




Round by Round Predictions

Adelaide 101 v Richmond 68 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Reilly O'Brien2
Brad Crouch2
Dustin Martin1
Josh Jenkins1

Fair effort by the undermanned Tigers but it always felt like it was just a matter of time. The experience of the Crows took over in the 2nd half running away with a comfortable 33 point win. Surprisingly though, it was the most inexperienced, unheralded player of the lot that was the catalyst. With only 13 games under his belt, big Reilly O’Brien dominated, scoring an astonishing 182 Supercoach points in the pivotal victory.

Essendon 96 v Hawthorn 77 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Zach Merrett2
Conor McKenna2
Michael Hurley1
Adam Saad1

Winner gets another week of clinging to finals hopes. Loser is cooked. Hawthorn…..you’re nicely done. In what was a relatively tight affair, it was the rebounding from defense that proved the difference with the likes of Conor McKenna and Adam Saad bouncing the Dons to a crucial win.

Gold Coast 76 v St Kilda 80 – Riverway Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Billings3
Tim Membrey1.5
David Swallow1.5

Jack Billings is the barometer of St Kilda success. We have the classy midfielder polling in five of St Kilda’s six wins and with 33 disposals and two goals, he’ll land the 3 in this one.

Fremantle 100 v Port Adelaide 79 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Michael Walters3
Nat Fyfe2
Travis Boak1

25 disposals, 6 goals and 5 clearances. It’s three votes to Michael Walters.

Carlton 100 v Western Bulldogs 103 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Josh Dunkley3
Charlie Curnow2
Patrick Lipinski0.5
Jack Macrae0.5

The 3 votes come down to a 41 disposal, 6 clearances and one goal game vs a 7 goal and 17 disposal game. Always leaning towards the winning team, we’ve got Josh Dunkley edging out the electrifying Charlie Curnow….just!

North Melbourne 68 v GWS 91 – Blundstone Arena

PlayerProjected Votes
Josh Kelly2
Zac Williams1.5
Tim Taranto1
Stephen Coniglio1
Jacob Hopper0.5

Good luck allocating the votes in this one. Anyone of 8 GWS players have a genuine claim to 3 votes. Taranto’s 31 and a goal? Zac William’s 28 and a goal from defence? Coniglio’s 27 and two goals? We’re throwing a dart at Josh Kelly’s eye catching 35 disposals and one goal game as best.

Richmond 37 v Geelong 104 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Dangerfield2.5
Tim Kelly1.5
Mitch Duncan1
Gary Ablett1

The Geelong Brownlow quinella is on.  12 rounds in, Tim Kelly & Patrick Dangerfield are atop the leader board.  With another 70 disposals and two goals between them, they’ll be in the votes again.

Carlton 78 v Brisbane 63 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Cripps3
Sam Walsh1.5
Edward Curnow1.5

Arguably one of the great individual performances of the modern era.  If allocating 6 votes to one player was a thing, Patrick Cripps would be $1.01 for the 6 votes.  38 disposals, 4 second half goals, 8 clearances, 193 SC points and most importantly a win has him a certainty for 3 votes.

Gold Coast 72 v North Melbourne 99 – Metricon Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Ziebell2.5
Ben Cunnington2
Jared Polec1.5

The Kangas maintained their perfect record under new coach Rhyce Shaw and in his milestone game, Jack Ziebell lead the way with 28 touches and two goals.

Adelaide 82 v GWS 61 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Josh Kelly2
Brad Crouch2
Matt Crouch1
Tim Taranto1

The Crows boosted their top four chances with a late surge but don’t be surprised if Josh Kelly polls the 3.  His 34 disposal and two goals looked a class above.

Sydney 116 v West Coast 71 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Papley3
Lance Franklin2
Jake Lloyd1

Last time the Eagles won at the SCG Scott Cummings lined up at full forward and Troy Luff polled a Brownlow vote.  Unfortunately for West Coast, that hoodoo will extend into 2020.  Five goal hauls from Lance Franklin and Tom Papley helped the undermanned Sydney record their best win of the season.

Collingwood 98 v Melbourne 57 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Adam Treloar2
Max Gawn2
Steele Sidebottom1
Jaidyn Stephenson1

Without Max Gawn, Melbourne would be deplorable.  34 disposals, 10 clearances and 33 hitouts for the All Australian ruckman kept the Dees within touching distance the entire afternoon before being outclassed by the relentless Pies.

North Melbourne 99 v Richmond 62 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Ben Cunnington2
Ben Brown1.5
Shaun Higgins1
Bachar Houli1
Dustin Martin0.5

Rhyce Shaw pushed his case for the North Melbourne coaching job beyond this season with a dream start defeating the more fancied Tigers in a major upset. The Shinboner spirit was on full display with no better example than contested bull Ben Cunnington racking up 31 touches, of which 20 were contested.

Collingwood 75 v Fremantle 79 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Nat Fyfe2.5
Scott Pendlebury1.5
Bradley Hill1
Michael Walters1

Michael Walters has ice in his veins and the Dockers have now knocked off two premiership contenders on the road. Not bad for a side that wasn’t rated pre-season. In what was a gutsy win, Nat Fyfe was at his influential best collecting 32 touches in a best on ground performance.

GWS 126 v Gold Coast 43 – Spotless Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Stephen Coniglio3
Josh Kelly2
Jeremy Cameron1

In what was another comfortable win, Stephen Coniglio became one of only 6 players since records were kept to collect 35 disposals, 10+ contested possessions, 8+ tackles and 3+ goals in a game. It’s a 3 vote game if we’ve ever seen one.

Geelong 85 v Sydney 63 – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Dangerfield2.5
Tim Kelly1.5
Luke Parker1
Tom Hawkins1

The Cats have quite the depth running through their midfield. John Longmire makes the call to tag Brownlow fancy Tim Kelly and in-form midfielder Mitch Duncan only to see little known midfielder Patrick Dangerfield pop up collecting 29 disposals and kick the lazy two goals.

Brisbane Lions 85 v Hawthorn 66 – The Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Jarryd Lyons2.5
Harris Andrews1.5
Lachie Neale1
Lewis Taylor1

Jarryd Lyons (33 disposals and 12 in the last quarter) had one of his best games for his new club, in what was another impressive come from behind win at home. Just like they did in round one when spotting West Coast a 27-point quarter-time lead before over-running the premier, the Lions trailed by 25 points at the first break before running over a cooked Hawthorn side.

Melbourne 88 v Adelaide 90 – Marrara Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Lynch2
Brad Crouch2
Clayton Oliver1.5
Josh Jenkins0.5

Counting our lucky stars we’re not Melbourne supporters. The Dees have now won the I50 count in 8 of their 11 games yet sit a measly 16th on the ladder. Difficult one to allocate with Brad Crouch (29 disposals, 3 goals & 7 clearances), Tom Lynch (26 disposals, three goals & 13 marks) and Clayton Oliver (34 disposals, 8 clearances & a goal) looking the obvious choices.

St Kilda 69 v Port Adelaide 139 – Jiangwan Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Travis Boak3
Robbie Gray2
Rowan Marshall1

China-Australia relations are at an all-time low after this one. We sold them a dud. In front of a huge crowd of empty seats the match didn’t reach any great heights away from a Travis Boak and Robbie Gray masterclass.

Essendon 74 v Carlton 33 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Dyson Heppell2.5
Darcy Parish2
Andrew McGrath1.5

A genuine candidate for worst match of the year and not surprisingly Carlton were involved. In what was a real stinker, Dyson Heppell was a class above the entire afternoon.

West Coast 133 v Western Bulldogs 72 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Darling2.5
Andrew Gaff2
Luke Shuey1
Josh Dunkley0.5

In form and back in the top 4 the Eagles did it easy against the Dogs. Starting to look ominously like 2018, it was on the back of a return to form of Jack Darling kicking six and the ever-reliable Andrew Gaff dominating with 36 touches.

Sydney 73 v Collingwood 80 – SCG

Player Projected Votes
Brodie Grundy2
Sam Reid2
Scott Pendlebury2

Dane Rampe running 20 metres over the mark is the stupidest thing we’ve seen since some bloke climbed a goal post.  That goal assist was enough to give the Pies the edge to record their 7th win on the trot with big man Brodie Grundy once again, contributing heavily to the win.

Hawthorn 80 v Port Adelaide 49 – UTAS

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Gunston3
Ricky Henderson2
James Sicily1

A win and 6 goals to Jack Gunston can’t be a good thing for Jarryd Roughead’s hopes of a quick return to the senior side.  The half forward relished the space and will be a short price for the 3 votes.

Western Bulldogs 90 v North Melbourne 115 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Todd Goldstein3
Shaun Higgins1.5
Ben Cunnington1.5

It only took for their coach to be shown the door for the Kangas to finally turn up.  In a bittersweet victory, the Kangas played inspired footy to record their third win for the season and it was on the back of a PB from big Todd Goldstein collecting an impressive 28 touches.

Adelaide 73 v West Coast 85 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Luke Shuey2.5
Andrew Gaff1.5
Dom Sheed1
Cam Ellis Yolmen0.5
Rory Sloane0.5

Adelaide vs West Coast at Adelaide Oval is fast becoming an away game for the Crows.  Not for the first time between these two sides, the Eagles flew home for a gutsy comeback win on the back of a Luke Shuey masterclass.

Gold Coast 64 v Geelong 91 – Metricon Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Tim Kelly2.5
Mitch Duncan2
Tom Hawkins0.5
Cam Guthrie0.5
David Swallow0.5

Not for the first time this year, we’ve got Tim Kelly leading the count.  With 35 touches and 8 clearances he’ll go very close to polling another 3 votes.

Richmond 73 v Essendon 50 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Bachar Houli3
Dustin Martin2
Darcy Parish1

Ex Bomber Bachar Houli won the Yiooken Award for his 37 possession performance and should edge out Dusty’s 35 disposal game for the 3.

Melbourne 68 v GWS 94 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Josh Kelly2
Lachie Whitfield2
Max Gawn1
Harry Himmelberg0.5
Tim Taranto0.5

Put your cheeseboards out for the MFC.  They’re cooked.  The 26 point margin was extremely flattering to the Dees who were smashed all day by a GWS team hellbent on winning at the G.  With key contributors around the ground, it’ll probably come down to the classy Josh Kelly & Lachie Whitfield who racked up 60 touches and 3 goals between them who’ll poll the 3 & 2 respectively.

St Kilda 68 v Carlton 55 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jade Gresham2.5
Patrick Cripps1.5
Jack Steele1.5
Sam Walsh0.5

After ruining Friday nights last year, Carlton are really starting to stink up the Sunday mid-afternoon timeslot.  Wonder if  Gil will consider an 11am Tuesday timeslot as an option next year?  Good luck allocating the votes in this one.  Possibly Gresham’s 29 disposals was the most eye catching.

Fremantle 73 v Brisbane Lions 72 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Bradley Hill2.5
Michael Walters2
Nathan Wilson1
Nat Fyfe0.5

It was fitting for Michael Walters to have the last kick of Sir Doug Nicholls round.  With 25 disposals, two goals and the winning point after the siren, the classy forward was one of best in the comeback victory.

West Coast 85 v Melbourne 69 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Elliot Yeo2
Shannon Hurn2
Dom Sheed1.5
Andrew Gaff0.5

Just 6 of 64 teams have played finals since 1990 after a 3-6 start to a season. Mount Hotham lift passes are about to skyrocket in sales. Meanwhile, Elliot Yeo is about to skyrocket up the leader board with 26 touches and a whopping 16 tackles.

Collingwood 112 v St Kilda 71 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Brodie Grundy2.5
Steele Sidebottom2.5
Adam Treloar1

Brodie Grundy’s timing is impeccable.  Two days after announcing he wants to wait and assess his options with a new contract he goes and polls 3 votes with 24 disposals, 49 hitouts (ten to advantage), seven clearances, six tackles and four marks.

Brisbane Lions 93 v Adelaide 92 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale2.5
Rory Sloane1.5
Daniel McStay1
Hugh McCluggage1

We have a new leader. Lachie Neale is polling 3 with a stat line that reads: 39 disposals, 22 contested, 12 clearances, 6 tackles, 4 I50s, 2 marks and all while going at 85% efficiency.

Geelong 133 v Melbourne 89 – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Mitch Duncan3
Mitch Wallis1.5
Tom Stewart0.5
Patrick Dangerfield0.5
Jack Macrae0.5

The last time the Dogs triumphed at the Cattery, the Bont was just 8 years old. Sadly for Dogs fans, that stat remains true.  The Cats were too classy from start to finish with All Australian candidate Mitch Duncan continuing his strong form kicking 3 goals and collecting 25 disposals.

Essendon 60 v Fremantle 53 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Zach Merrett2
Dylan Shiel2
David Mundy1.5
David Zaharakis0.5

Hard to provide an argument for either side making the finals after watching this one. The Dons limped to the line and with his first two goals for the club, it was Dylan Shiel’s goal kicking accuracy ended up the difference.

North Melbourne 72 v Sydney 77 – Blundstone Arena

PlayerProjected Votes
Luke Parker2.5
Jack Ziebell2
George Hewett1
Jake Lloyd0.5

The Swans were without their six most experienced players (1571 games) but managed to hold on in a heartstopper.  Difficult one to allocate with Ziebell’s 35 disposals looking the best individual performance however with a W next to his name, Luke Parker’s 28 touches may edge him out.

Port Adelaide 89 v Gold Coast 51 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Travis Boak2.5
Brayden Fiorini2
Sam Gray1
Connor Rozee0.5

It was ugly. But Kenny Hinkley won’t mind winning ugly when it means your side is back in the 8. The Power kicked away late and with another 30 possession game, Travis Boak will be a short price for 3 votes come September.

Richmond 95 v Hawthorn 59 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Dustin Martin3
Bachar Houli2
Brandon Ellis1

If Dusty is back than we have another genuine contender for the flag. It was a vintage display all day by the 2017 Brownlow medallist collecting 37 touches in a best on ground performance.

GWS 138 v Carlton 45 – Giants Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Whitfield3
Josh Kelly1
Tim Taranto1
Jeremy Cameron0.5
Toby Greene0.5

GWS had 12 players collect more than 20 touches. Carlton had one and it was their designated kicker from fullback.  Fair to say this was an annihilation and with a lazy 40 disposal/ 3 goal game, Lachie Whitfield is getting 3.

Sydney 77 v Essendon 72 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Luke Parker3
Zach Merrett1
Andrew McGrath1
George Hewett0.5
Michael Hurley0.5

With one win from their last 6 games vs teams sitting 18th on the ladder you can see why the Dons haven’t won a final for 5,363 days.  Nevertheless, the Swans deserved the win and Luke Parker should land the 3, collecting 33 disposals and dominating In the clinches.

Western Bulldogs 92 v Brisbane 76 – Mars Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Josh Dunkley2
Marcus Bontempelli1
Jack Macrae1
Lachie Hunter1
Hugh McCluggage0.5
Dayne Zorko0.5

The Western Bulldogs are back in the finals race again and not for the first time, it was thanks to a dominant midfield display from the likes of Hunter, Macrae and Bontempelli.  However when allocating the votes, we’ve gone the unheralded Josh Dunkley with his 36 touches and a goal as the most likely to poll the 3.

Carlton 87 v Collingwood 106 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Cripps2
Brodie Grundy2
Adam Treloar1
Tom Phillips0.5
Steele Sidebottom0.5

Patrick Cripps must have sore shoulders carrying 21 blokes every week.  Arguably the best the player in the league, he’d be a Winx price for the Brownlow if Carlton could just learn how to play.

Gold Coast 60 v Melbourne 61 – Metricon Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Clayton Oliver3
David Swallow1.5
Darcy Macpherson1
Jake Melksham0.5

In what was the craziest ending to a game this year, Tom Mcdonald’s one effective kick (off knee) of the year has been the Dees most crucial.  That kick probably won’t surpass Oliver’s 38 disposals and 9 clearances as best on in the eyes of the umpires though.  

St Kilda 70 v West Coast 80 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Luke Shuey2
Shannon Hurn1.5
Andrew Gaff1.5
Elliot Yeo0.5
Jack Billings0.5

Not one for the highlights reel but if you’re a West Coast fan, it’s another crucial 4 points away from home. Difficult to allocate with each of Hurn, Gaff and Shuey having genuine claims for best on.

Port Adelaide 68 v Adelaide 88 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Alex Keath2.5
Tom Lynch1.5
Rory Laird1
Tom Rockliff1

26 touches, 14 contested, 12 intercepts, 7 rebound 50s, 5 marks, two tackles and a showdown medal is a fair stat line for a righthand batsman. Alex Keith was brilliant.

North Melbourne 80 v Geelong 104 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Tim Kelly3
Shaun Higgins1.5
Mitch Duncan1
Gary Ablett0.5

Geelong need to seriously consider moving the footy club to WA next year if it means keeping Tim Kelly. 36 possessions, 11 clearances and two goals could see him leading the Brownlow eight rounds in.

Hawthorn 71 v GWS 38 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Ricky Henderson2.5
James Sicily2
James Cousins1
Josh Kelly0.5

Since 2016, GWS have only won an alarming one game at the MCG.  Despite it being a low scoring affair they were never in this one with Ricky Henderson continuing his massive 2019 collecting another 36 disposals in a best afield performance.

Fremantle 86 v Richmond 111 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Nat Fyfe2
Bachar Houli2
Brandon Ellis1.5
Shai Bolton0.5

A depleted Richmond provided us with a timely reminder of just how good they are.  And in terms of the Brownlow, is Nat Fyfe in trouble for another errant elbow..?

Collingwood 108 v Port Adelaide 69 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Scott Pendlebury3
Darcy Moore1.5
Adam Treloar1
Steele Sidebottom0.5

Scott Pendlebury is now one of 8 players in history to have had 35+ disposals, 5+ marks and 5+ tackles in consecutive matches. The Pies are good and so is their captain and he’ll poll 3 votes for the second week running.

GWS 114 v St Kilda 70 – Giants Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jeremy Cameron2.5
Zac Williams2
Nick Haynes1
Tim Taranto0.5

Is 100 goals in a season still a thing? With another 6 goal bag, Jeremy Cameron now has the most goals through 7 rounds since Brendan Fevola and Lance Franklin in 2008. With 15 possessions and 11 marks also, he should poll the 3 just ahead of Zac Williams’ 30 touches.

Melbourne 79 v Hawthorn 74 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
James Harmes2.5
Jack Gunston1.5
Liam Shiels1
Michael Hibberd0.5
Clayton Oliver0.5

The Dees have a heartbeat and with 31 disposals and a goal, all while stopping the damaging Jaeger O’Meara, James Harmes should poll the 3.

Brisbane 103 v Sydney 81 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Dayne Zorko2.5
Hugh McCluggage1.5
George Hewett1
Tom Papley0.5
Lachie Neale0.5

Dayne Zorko is thanking his lucky stars Lachie Neale came to Brisbane. The Ex Docker took what would usually be his tag relishing the open air, becoming one of only 3 players in modern history with 10+ clearances, 10+ tackles & 10+ inside 50s in one game.

Western Bulldogs 99 v Richmond 52 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Aaron Naughton2.5
Marcus Bontempelli2
Jack Macrae0.5
Caleb Daniel0.5
Josh Dunkley0.5

It was a fair night for Aaron Naughton. Not only did he go past Chris Grant’s club record of 7 contested marks in a game, but he’s also now the youngest player & first teenager to take nine contested marks in a match since the stat was recorded. 3 votes Aaron Naughton.

West Coast 80 v Gold Coast 57 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Elliot Yeo2
Andrew Gaff1.5
Luke Shuey1
Dom Sheed1
Brad Sheppard0.5

The victory steadied their season after two concerning defeats to Port Adelaide and Geelong by a combined 100 points but the Eagles were far from convincing. A difficult one for us armchair experts to watch but an even harder one to allocate. Possibly Elliot Yeo’s 26 touches from qtr time might see him edge out a few others.

Carlton 62 v North Melbourne 120 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Trent Dumont2.5
Cameron Zurhaar1.5
Shaun Higgins1
Ben Brown0.5
Patrick Cripps0.5

Kangaroos supporters around the nation rushed to their respective AFL fixture fridge magnets post game to check if they play Carlton again. Their beloved ‘shinboners’ were made to look like premiership contenders from the opening bounce of yesterday’s game with Trent Dumont in fine touch collecting 38 touches in a solid return to form.

Geelong 86 v Essendon 54 – MCG 

PlayerProjected Votes
Tim Kelly2.5
Gary Ablett2
Tom Stewart1
Zach Merrett0.5

Making light work of the Dons, the Cats outplayed Essendon after quarter time with another strong showing from future Eagle Tim Kelly.

Adelaide 51 v Fremantle 34 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Matt Crouch2
Tom Lynch1
Cam Ellis-Yolmen1
Rory Sloane1
Nat Fyfe0.5
David Mundy0.5

Good luck allocating votes however with 39 touches, Matt Crouch should feature heavily.

Richmond 85 v Melbourne 42 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Nick Vlastuin2.5
Bachar Houli2
Kane Lambert1.5

It had only been 4 days for Dees fans to recover before they received another dose of salt into the wound. A 43 point loss cementing their spot on the bottom of the ladder, has them, and the rest of us in shock. Nick Vlastuin’s performance, collecting 28 possessions and 13 marks rebounding off HB was the catalyst to the Dees 5th loss, however he’s a back, so we have no confidence allocating the full 3.

Essendon 69 v Collingwood 73 – MCG

Player Projected Votes
Scott Pendlebury3
Joe Daniher1.5
Dylan Shiel1
Brodie Grundy0.5

Scott Pendlebury is an Anzac Day specialist. Equaling James Hird on 3 medals, he was the best player all day and is a lock for 3 votes.

Port Adelaide 88 v North Melbourne 72 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Travis Boak2.5
Sam Gray2
Ben Cunnington1.5

If the season ended today, Travis Boak would be All-Australian. 38 possessions with 15 of them contested and 11 clearances should see him edge out Sam Gray’s 28 disposals and 4 goals for best on.

Gold Coast 62 – Brisbane 111 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Mitch Robinson2.5
Lachie Neale2
Charlie Cameron1
Jarryd Lyons0.5

Lachie Neale reinforced his brownlow credentials with another dominant display, collecting 28 disposals and leading the Lions to a comfortable 49 point win in his first Q Clash. New leader?

St Kilda 68 v Adelaide Crows 97 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Matt Crouch2
Taylor Walker2
Brodie Smith1
Rory Laird1

Adelaide brought St Kilda crashing back down to earth with a crunching win at Marvel Stadium. Tex Walker should poll his first votes of the season with 4 crucial guys and quiet achiever Matt Crouch will go close to best, with another 36 possession game.

Sydney 79 v GWS 120 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Stephen Coniglio3
Tim Taranto1.5
Jeremy Cameron0.5
Toby Greene0.5
Jacob Hopper0.5

Are the Swans finally bottoming out? Losing their fifth game in a row at the SCG for the first time in 25 years, it certainly feels that way. On the other side of the ledger, GWS looked in control for the entire night with Stephen Coniglio looking extremely comfortable as captain kicking 4 goals.

Fremantle 88 v Western Bulldogs 69 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
David Mundy3
Nat Fyfe1.5
Caleb Daniel1
Brandon Matera0.5

Fun Fact: Not only will David Mundy collect 3 votes in his 300th but he also became the second most travelled player (in planes) for AFL games reaching 749,278 kms in his most recent away trip.

Hawthorn 93 v Carlton 88 – UTAS 

PlayerProjected Votes
Jaeger O'Meara3
Liam Shiels2
James Sicily1

Kane Cornes circa 2017: ‘the Jaeger O’Meara trade could end up being one of the worst trades of all time’. Jaeger O’Meara 28/4/2019: 43 disposals, 24 contested possessions, 9 clearances, 6 inside 50s, 1 goal & 10 score involvements. Horrendous game.

Geelong 104 v West Coast – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Gary Ablett2.5
Patrick Dangerfield1.5
Gary Rohan1
Tom Stewart0.5
Mitch Duncan0.5

The little master sent a message to the competition. His not finished. Five goal assists, two goals and 28 disposals in a vintage performance should see Gary Ablett poll his first 3 votes for the year.

Brisbane 61 v Collingwood 123 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Adam Treloar2.5
Brody Mihocek1.5
Jack Crisp1
Jaidyn Stephenson0.5
Tom Langdon0.5

On Thursday night the Pies put the rest of the competition on notice putting away a lackluster Lions outfit to run away comfortable 62 point winners. It was a demolition across the board by the Pies, but with 35 disposals going at 80% efficiency, Adam Treloar should land the 3.

North Melbourne 58 v Essendon 116 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Dylan Shiel2.5
Zach Merrett2
Dyson Heppell1.5

3 wins and its mid-April. The lids off down at Windy Hill. In what was a surprisingly comfortable win on such a big occasion, it was won in the 2nd quarter when key midfielders Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel collected a combined 41 possessions between them to kick start a Bombers avalanche.

West Coast 53 v Port Adelaide 95 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Ollie Wines2.5
Sam Gray1.5
Travis Boak1
Sam Powell-Pepper1

3 wins and its mid-April. The lids off down at Windy Hill. In what was a surprisingly comfortable win on such a big occasion, it was won in the 2nd quarter when key midfielders Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel collected a combined 41 possessions between them to kick start a Bombers avalanche.

GWS 82 v Fremantle 106 – GMHBA

PlayerProjected Votes
Nat Fyfe2
Michael Walters2
Matt Taberner1.5
Stephen Coniglio0.5

2019 is fast becoming a tipster’s nightmare. The $5.5 outsider looked far from it, and triumphed late banging on 6 goals in a row to run out 24 point victors. Nat Fyfe could again see himself with 3 votes however there’s a fair argument that a combined 46 possessions and 6 goals from Michael Walters and Matt Taberner was more influential.

Melbourne 55 v St Kilda 95 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Billings2
Shane Savage1.5
Dean Kent1.5
Tim Membrey1

On what was their final performance of the Comedy Festival, The Dees didn’t disappoint. Arguably the most entertaining act of the festival, the once ‘premiership contender’ gave us one final laugh before signing off for another year. Seemingly never in it, the Dees were smashed from the outset and it was Jack Billings again who shone brightest. With another 28 disposal/ 2 goal performance we have him polling in his 5th game in a row. Leader?

Richmond 89 v Sydney 67 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Dustin Martin3
Dion Prestia2
Luke Parker1

Be warned. 2017 Dusty could be back and with 25 disposals and 3 goals so will it see him poll for the second time this year.

Western Bulldogs 57 v Carlton 101 – Marvel Stadium

Player Projected Votes
Sam Petrevski-Seton2
Harry McKay2
Patrick Cripps2

Not since Steve Waugh’s 2003 last over century has there been a more tense viewing experience. In this instance it was Carlton trying to notch up the elusive ton, and with 1 second left, they achieved greatness racking up their first 100 for 60 games. Huge performances from Harry McKay, Sam Petreski-Seton and Patrick Cripps were the difference in what ended up a surprisingly comfortable 44 point win.

Adelaide 119 v Gold Coast 46 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Brodie Smith2.5
Eddie Betts2
Rory Sloane1
Matt Crouch0.5

How can you not love Eddie Betts. In his 300th he gave us something special, rising to the occasion kicking 6 goals including a left-foot check-side to lead the Crows in a much needed 73 point thumping.

Hawthorn 90 v Geelong 113 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Tim Kelly2.5
Gary Ablett1.5
Ricky Henderson1
Patrick Dangerfield0.5
Joel Selwood0.5

Geelong refuse to bottom out. It’s quite annoying to be honest. Top of the table once more and with another dominant display through the midfield, Tim Kelly will be in contention for another 3 once more.

Sydney 78 v Melbourne 100 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Nathan Jones2
Max Gawn1.5
Isaac Heeney1
Oliver Florent1
Clayton Oliver0.5

Fact: Buddy Franklin has never beaten a Melbourne side with Brayden Preuss playing. Melbourne have finally unlocked the secret. 3 goals to captain Nathan Jones in what was an inspiring performance also may have helped the cause.

Collingwood 78 v Bulldogs 64 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Brodie Grundy2.5
Marcus Bontempelli2.5
Tom Phillips0.5
Caleb Daniel0.5

Brodie Grundy won 87.9% of the games hit outs. No one else in the AFL era has gone above 77.8%. 23 disposals to add to that tally has the big man edging out a BONT masterclass for the 3 votes.

Geelong 75 v GWS 79 – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Whitfield2.5
Stephen Coniglio2
Josh Kelly1
Tim Taranto0.5

Geelong made it 0/2 for the remaining undefeated sides on Saturday going down to a courageous GWS and with another 31 disposal game, our 80/1 value pick preseason may just be winning the vote count 4 rounds in.

Essendon 112 v Brisbane 65 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Anthony Mcd-Tipungwuti3
Zach Merrett2
Mitch Brown1

It’s Jekyll and Hyde type stuff for the Bombers. This week they turned up and put an undefeated Brisbane to the sword and with a personal best 7 goals, Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti is polling the 3.

Port Adelaide 92 v Richmond 99 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Brandon Ellis2
Dylan Grimes1.5
Tom Rockliff1.5
Tom Lynch1

Against all the odds, the Tigers looked to re-discover their 2017 pressure game with a stirring 7 point win away from home. Dylan Grimes was arguably the most influential on the ground however Brownlow votes and defenders rarely go together. Tom Lynch’s 6 goals will go close to the 3.

North Melbourne 71 v Adelaide 59 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Shaun Higgins3
Jared Polec1.5
Rory Laird0.5
Matt Crouch0.5
Ben Brown0.5

Brad Scott’s Kangaroos are finally off the mark in 2019, but it wasn’t without some nervous moments. Going down by 4 goals early in the 3rd term the Kangas looked dead and buried before an inspired Ben Brown performance allowed the winless side to find momentum and come from behind to win.

West Coast 69 v Fremantle 56 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Shannon Hurn2.5
David Mundy1.5
Andrew Gaff1
Jack Redden1

Eagles Captain Shannon Hurn won the Glendinning-Allan Medal for the 3rd time and with 33 disposals it’s hard not to see him collecting 3 votes come September either.

Gold Coast 59 v Carlton 57 – Metricon Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Cripps2.5
Touk Miler2
David Swallow1
Sam Walsh0.5

Death, taxes and Patrick Cripps best on in another Carlton loss. Standard. The Suns snatched it at the death in another thriller and probably only Touk’s 31 possessions could snatch the 3 from Cripps.

St Kilda 74 v Hawthorn  69 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Seb Ross2.5
Jack Billings1.5
Tom Scully1
Ricky Henderson0.5
Jack Newnes0.5

The dam wall finally collapsed. In a tense final quarter, St Kilda were able to take advantage of an injury depleted Hawthorn to notch up their 3rdstraight victory at Marvel. With 39 possessions and a goal, Seb Ross led the Saints all day and is the short priced favourite for best on.

Adelaide 75 v Geelong 99 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Dangerfield3
Brad Crouch1.5
Tim Kelly1
Rory Sloane0.5

As we flagged in our pre-season preview, Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield is among a crop of top-tier footballers who will reap the benefits of the AFL’s 6-6-6 rule.  The Brownlow medal favourite collected another 32 disposals and 10 clearances relishing his newly found freedom and should be leading the Brownlow after 3 rounds.

Melbourne 112 v Essendon 130 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Dyson Heppell2
Angus Brayshaw1.5
David Zaharakis1.5
Dylan Shiel1

Titus O’Reilly said it best – ‘Melbourne will have no trouble filling their banner next week.’  The stakes were high and the Dees weren’t up to it.  By contrast,  Essendon relied on another trial by media to find a win.  Led by Dyson Heppell’s 27 possessions the Dons are on the board.

Carlton 74 v Sydney 93 – MCG

PLayerProjected Votes
Isaac Heeney3
Josh Kennedy1
Patrick Cripps1
Ed Curnow1

A win isn’t far away for the poor ol Blues. Gallant In defeat, it was the likes of Isaac Heeney and Josh Kennedy that proved the difference in a tight contest.

GWS 125 v Richmond 76 – Giants Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jeremy Cameron3
Lachie Whitfield2
Jeremy Finlayson1

Led by tall forwards Jeremy Cameron (seven goals) and prolific midfielder Lachie Whitfield, GWS came up trumps against an injury depleted Tigers outfit. With a statline that reads 42 disposals, 12 marks and eight inside 50s, Lachie Whitfield may still finish runner-up for the 3 votes after Jeremy Cameron kicked 7 goals collecting an astonishing 30 disposals while doing so.

Brisbane 107 v Port Adelaide 90 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Connor Rozee1.5
Eric Hipwood1.5

3 Rounds in and Lachie Neale is the recruit of the year. Averaging a lazy 38.3 possessions, he’s a short price to be leading the Brownlow. Oh, and Brisbane are 3 and zip.

Collingwood 76 v West Coast 98 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Andrew Gaff2.5
Dom Sheed1.5
Shannon Hurn1
Jamie Cripps1

Andrew Gaff is a handy inclusion to a side that are defending premiers. 35 disposals and five clearances, the classy midfielder hardly put a foot wrong in front of the 60000 strong MCG crowd. Amazing what winning a Grand Final can do to a team’s confidence playing away from home.

Western Bulldogs 68 v Gold Coast 73

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Martin2
Marcus Bontempelli1.5
Tom Liberatore1
Jack Macrae1
Brayden Fiorini0.5

Gold Coast are fast becoming everyone’s 2nd favourite team and a gutsy win away from home only enhanced that.  Difficult one to allocate when the losing side has 4 of the top disposal winners though.  Jack Martin no certainty for three but looks the best chance with 23 touches and 5 shots on goal.

Hawthorn 87 v North Melbourne 71

PlayerProjected Votes
Jaegar O'Meara2.5
Shaun Higgins2
Jack Ziebell0.5
Jasper Pittard0.5
Luke Breust0.5

Overcoming a sluggish start, Hawthorn rolled over the top of a marshmallow-like Kangaroos side who struggled to go with the Hawks after the pressure went up a notch. Jaeger O’Meara continues to enhance the reputation of Hawthorns rehab team with another dominant 31 possession game and should go close to best on in the impressive come from behind win.

Fremantle 71 v St Kilda 66 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Michael Walters2.5
Luke Ryan2
Ed Langdon1
Jack Billings0.5

Nathan Fyfe got knocked out and wont poll a vote. What the first half also provided was proof when Michael Walters is invested and playing midfield he’s a dangerous proposition. 

Richmond 66 v Collingwood 110 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Adam Treloar2
Scott Pendlebury1
Jordan De Goey1
Jack Crisp1
Dayne Beams1

If you’re a fan of Supercoach you’d understand that if the top 12 individual scores were attributed to one team, the other side probably didn’t go so well.  That side is Richmond and you can forget about them polling a Brownlow vote in this one. Adam Treloar’s going to feature with 39 possessions and a goal with De Goey’s 5 goal masterclass possibly falling in behind him.

Sydney 62 v Adelaide 88 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Brad Crouch2
Rory Sloane1.5
Josh Kennedy1.5
Jake Lloyd1

Round 2 knee-jerk reaction: Sydney are cooked.  When they needed to up the tempo and chase down a deficit, the challenge looked beyond them.  Rory Sloane’s intensity was instrumental but with 26 disposals and a goal, we’re leaning towards Brad Crouch.

Essendon 65 v St Kilda 76 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jade Gresham2.5
Jack Billings2
Dylan Shiel1.5

For St Kilda, it was consistency and an even spread of contributors that did the damage.  Jade Gresham’s two goals and 25 touches looks the most likely game for 3 votes.

Port Adelaide 88 v Carlton 72 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Rockliff2
Travis Boak2
Patrick Cripps1
Scott Lycett1

Gallant in defeat, the Blues fell just short of a Port Adelaide side surprising most with two wins to open their season.  The same Boak/Rockliff combo as round 1 were influential in  victory racking up 70 possessions between them and should land the 3 & 2 respectively.

Geelong 126 v Melbourne 46 – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Dangerfield3
Clayton Oliver2
Tim Kelly0.5
Tom Stewart0.5

Melbourne has setup a mouth-watering wooden spoon clash with their crosstown rivals Essendon by outdoing the Dons first two weeks efforts and losing by 80 points taking over bottom place on the ladder. Geelong dominated from the get go and with some new found space and time, Dangerfield flourished, collecting 37 possessions and kicking two goals.

West Coast 104 v GWS 52 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Luke Shuey2.5
Lachie Whitfield2
Dom Sheed1.5

Don’t be surprised if West Coast go through the season not dropping a game at Optus and don’t be surprised if Luke Shuey polls 20+ on Brownlow night. 28 possessions and two goals gets him top votes in this one.

North Melbourne 87 v Brisbane 107 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Ben Cunnington2
Shaun Higgins1

A maturing Lions outfit is fast becoming a scary proposition and with the likes of Lachie Neale at the helm collecting 40+ disposals, the sky is the limit!

Hawthorn 87 v Western Bulldogs 106

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Macrae2
Jaegar O'Meara1.5
Josh Schache1
Tory Dickson1
Tom Liberatore0.5

An exhilarating nine-goal final term sealed what was an extraordinary victory.  Five goals down at the final change the Dogs managed to secure a stunning 19-point victory over a Hawks side down to two on the bench and out on their feet.  Nine of their midfielders managed 20 disposals or more and hats off to the few who land the 3/2/1 in order. Macrae and O’Meara should feature though.

Gold Coast 61 v Fremantle 58

PlayerProjected Votes
Alex Sexton2
Jarrod Harbrow1.5
Bradley Hill1.5
Jack Martin0.5
David Swallow0.5

2019s easy beats are not so easy to beat. Alex Sexton leads the Coleman Medal. Could he be leading the Brownlow? Probably not but wowee!

Carlton 64 v Richmond 97 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Trent Cotchin2
Patrick Cripps1.5
Toby Nankervis1.5
Nic Newman1

20 mins in and it looked like Carlton’s JLT hype balloon was about to sink like a lead balloon.  But for the first time for what feels like an eternity, Carlton actually looked alright after a disastrous opening quarter.  Cripps of course fired again in another Carlton loss racking up 21 contested possessions however with the W, we’re leaning towards Trent Cotchin’s 31 possessions as the standout game.

Collingwood 65 v Geelong 72 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Tim Kelly2.5
Patrick Dangerfield1.5
Adam Treloar1
Gary Ablett1

You get the feeling every big game Tim Kelly plays will be a bittersweet one for the Cats faithful.  All but signed for the Eagles in 2020, it was the classy midfielders 31 possessions and 9 clearances that catapulted the Cats to a massive first up victory against premiership favourites Collingwood.

Melbourne 61 v Port Adelaide 87 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Rockliff2.5
Justin Westhoff2
Travis Boak1
Christian Salem0.5

In what was the first of many boilovers for the opening round, Port Adelaide produced a flawless second half performance to stun the fancied Demons. With four debutants and another two playing their first game for the club, there was plenty to like about Ken Hinkley’s side on Saturday afternoon. Five goals to Justin Westhoff and 44 possessions to Tom Rockliff look to be the stand out performances in the 26 point win.

Adelaide 55 – Hawthorn 87 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
James Worpel3
James Sicily1.5
Jaegar O'Meara1.5

Considering their own fans didn’t give them much of a chance, Hawthorns 22 point win proved to us all that maybe it’s best to see a sample of the real stuff before investing our hard earned. Another pre-season ‘hype’ team failed to deliver when it counted outclassed by yet another Alistair Clarkson masterclass. James Worpel’s two goals and 27 possessions was as impressive game as any in the round and will land him the three votes later in the year.

Bulldogs 82 v Sydney 65 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Marcus Bontempelli3
Jack Macrae1.5
Tom Liberatore1
Aaron Naughton0.5

A sluggish Swans left it too late falling short to a Bulldogs side much resembling their 2016 triumph. The young side dominated territory outnumbering Sydney at the contest allowing the likes of Bont and Jack Macrae to collect possessions at will.

Brisbane 102 v West Coast 58 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Hugh McCluggage2
Lachie Neale1.5
Dom Sheed1.5
Jarrod Berry1

If you went four from four in your tipping on Saturday you’ve got no idea… The Lions finished off what was a crazy day of results kicking 12 of the final 14 goals to run out comfortable 44 point victors against the defending premiers. An even spread of contributors makes this one hard to allocate however we’re expecting Hugh McCluggage’s 20 possessions/ 1 goal game and Lachie Neale’s 29 possessions to feature in the umpires voting.

St Kilda 85 v Gold Coast 84 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Seb Ross2
Jack Billings2
Alex Sexton1.5
Brayden Fiorini0.5

Alan Richardson was one relieved man come 4pm Sunday. 30 minutes earlier he may just have been clearing his schedule for a year’s holiday. Despite that and a nervous last term featuring plenty of fumbles, his side managed to scrap their way to victory and save him from any early scrutiny. You’ll be doing well to land the trifecta in this one but Seb Ross’s 27 possessions and Jack Billings 28 should see the two midfielders feature heavily in the 6 votes.

GWS 112 v Essendon 40 – Giants Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Stephen Coniglio3
Tim Taranto2
Lachie Whitfield1

Woosha must be starting to feel the pressure. No longer is the drug saga a reasonable excuse for insipid performances. A 72 point drubbing will have him and the underperforming Dons in the spotlight throughout the week. GWS on the other hand lead by a dominant Stephen Coniglio looked like a team that has plenty of depth regardless of an off season cleanout.

Fremantle 141 – North Melbourne 59 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Nat Fyfe2.5
Cam McCarthy2
Bradley Hill1
Darcy Tucker0.5

Once again, the punters took the Ross Lyon bluff. An uninspiring JLT and a less than ideal lead up looked to have counted for little as they made the Kangaroos look second rate in front of a packed crowd at Optus stadium. Usually this means 3 votes to Nat Fyfe and most likely in this case, yes, however Cam McCarthy’s 5 goals & 20 touches could genuinely challenge.


Voting Method

Six Brownlow Medal votes are assigned to each game, however, the Betfair predictive method does not follow the 3-2-1 formula of the AFL. Votes vary from 0.5 to 3, allowing for more than three players to be acknowledged. This means less players are overlooked, and when the model is confident, more Brownlow votes can be allocated to a particular player. The trap of allocating 3-2-1 is that there are many matches with few standout players, and impactful 3s and 2s can be allocated to players that the umpires didn’t notice.

Voting Tiers:

3 votes: Clearly the best player on the ground

2.5 votes: Questionably the best player on the ground

2 votes: Clear second best player on the ground or possible best in a crowded field

1.5 votes: Potentially second best player on the ground, often shared by multiple players

1 vote: Likely third best, but can be shared by multiple players

0.5 votes: Wasn’t the standout but their influence should be acknowledged


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