2019 Brownlow Medal Predictor

Betfair’s pro punting team, The Analysts, have created a 2019 Brownlow predictor. You can see the leaderboard and every vote below.

2019 Brownlow Predictor

Without further ado, please enjoy Betfair’s 2019 Brownlow Predictor. The Analysts have assigned votes to every single game and our populated leaderboard can be sorted by team votes.

You’ll notice that 2019 Brownlow Predictor skews towards midfielders and winning teams. A ruckman, power forward or key defender hasn’t won the award for 26 years, which is why The Analysts are more likely to Lay Max Gawn and Brody Grundy, rather than back them.

If you want to see our Analyst’s preview of who they tipped before the season, click here.

2019 Leaderboard

Round by Round Predictions

Sydney 78 v Melbourne 100 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Nathan Jones2
Max Gawn1.5
Isaac Heeney1
Oliver Florent1
Clayton Oliver0.5

Fact: Buddy Franklin has never beaten a Melbourne side with Brayden Preuss playing. Melbourne have finally unlocked the secret. 3 goals to captain Nathan Jones in what was an inspiring performance also may have helped the cause.

Collingwood 78 v Bulldogs 64 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Brodie Grundy2.5
Marcus Bontempelli2.5
Tom Phillips0.5
Caleb Daniel0.5

Brodie Grundy won 87.9% of the games hit outs. No one else in the AFL era has gone above 77.8%. 23 disposals to add to that tally has the big man edging out a BONT masterclass for the 3 votes.

Geelong 75 v GWS 79 – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Whitfield2.5
Stephen Coniglio2
Josh Kelly1
Tim Taranto0.5

Geelong made it 0/2 for the remaining undefeated sides on Saturday going down to a courageous GWS and with another 31 disposal game, our 80/1 value pick preseason may just be winning the vote count 4 rounds in.

Essendon 112 v Brisbane 65 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Anthony Mcd-Tipungwuti3
Zach Merrett2
Mitch Brown1

It’s Jekyll and Hyde type stuff for the Bombers. This week they turned up and put an undefeated Brisbane to the sword and with a personal best 7 goals, Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti is polling the 3.

Port Adelaide 92 v Richmond 99 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Brandon Ellis2
Dylan Grimes1.5
Tom Rockliff1.5
Tom Lynch1

Against all the odds, the Tigers looked to re-discover their 2017 pressure game with a stirring 7 point win away from home. Dylan Grimes was arguably the most influential on the ground however Brownlow votes and defenders rarely go together. Tom Lynch’s 6 goals will go close to the 3.

North Melbourne 71 v Adelaide 59 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Shaun Higgins3
Jared Polec1.5
Rory Laird0.5
Matt Crouch0.5
Ben Brown0.5

Brad Scott’s Kangaroos are finally off the mark in 2019, but it wasn’t without some nervous moments. Going down by 4 goals early in the 3rd term the Kangas looked dead and buried before an inspired Ben Brown performance allowed the winless side to find momentum and come from behind to win.

West Coast 69 v Fremantle 56 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Shannon Hurn2.5
David Mundy1.5
Andrew Gaff1
Jack Redden1

Eagles Captain Shannon Hurn won the Glendinning-Allan Medal for the 3rd time and with 33 disposals it’s hard not to see him collecting 3 votes come September either.

Gold Coast 59 v Carlton 57 – Metricon Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Cripps2.5
Touk Miler2
David Swallow1
Sam Walsh0.5

Death, taxes and Patrick Cripps best on in another Carlton loss. Standard. The Suns snatched it at the death in another thriller and probably only Touk’s 31 possessions could snatch the 3 from Cripps.

St Kilda 74 v Hawthorn  69 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Seb Ross2.5
Jack Billings1.5
Tom Scully1
Ricky Henderson0.5
Jack Newnes0.5

The dam wall finally collapsed. In a tense final quarter, St Kilda were able to take advantage of an injury depleted Hawthorn to notch up their 3rdstraight victory at Marvel. With 39 possessions and a goal, Seb Ross led the Saints all day and is the short priced favourite for best on.

Adelaide 75 v Geelong 99 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Dangerfield3
Brad Crouch1.5
Tim Kelly1
Rory Sloane0.5

As we flagged in our pre-season preview, Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield is among a crop of top-tier footballers who will reap the benefits of the AFL’s 6-6-6 rule.  The Brownlow medal favourite collected another 32 disposals and 10 clearances relishing his newly found freedom and should be leading the Brownlow after 3 rounds.

Melbourne 112 v Essendon 130 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Dyson Heppell2
Angus Brayshaw1.5
David Zaharakis1.5
Dylan Shiel1

Titus O’Reilly said it best – ‘Melbourne will have no trouble filling their banner next week.’  The stakes were high and the Dees weren’t up to it.  By contrast,  Essendon relied on another trial by media to find a win.  Led by Dyson Heppell’s 27 possessions the Dons are on the board.

Carlton 74 v Sydney 93 – MCG

PLayerProjected Votes
Isaac Heeney3
Josh Kennedy1
Patrick Cripps1
Ed Curnow1

A win isn’t far away for the poor ol Blues. Gallant In defeat, it was the likes of Isaac Heeney and Josh Kennedy that proved the difference in a tight contest.

GWS 125 v Richmond 76 – Giants Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jeremy Cameron3
Lachie Whitfield2
Jeremy Finlayson1

Led by tall forwards Jeremy Cameron (seven goals) and prolific midfielder Lachie Whitfield, GWS came up trumps against an injury depleted Tigers outfit. With a statline that reads 42 disposals, 12 marks and eight inside 50s, Lachie Whitfield may still finish runner-up for the 3 votes after Jeremy Cameron kicked 7 goals collecting an astonishing 30 disposals while doing so.

Brisbane 107 v Port Adelaide 90 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Connor Rozee1.5
Eric Hipwood1.5

3 Rounds in and Lachie Neale is the recruit of the year. Averaging a lazy 38.3 possessions, he’s a short price to be leading the Brownlow. Oh, and Brisbane are 3 and zip.

Collingwood 76 v West Coast 98 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Andrew Gaff2.5
Dom Sheed1.5
Shannon Hurn1
Jamie Cripps1

Andrew Gaff is a handy inclusion to a side that are defending premiers. 35 disposals and five clearances, the classy midfielder hardly put a foot wrong in front of the 60000 strong MCG crowd. Amazing what winning a Grand Final can do to a team’s confidence playing away from home.

Western Bulldogs 68 v Gold Coast 73

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Martin2
Marcus Bontempelli1.5
Tom Liberatore1
Jack Macrae1
Brayden Fiorini0.5

Gold Coast are fast becoming everyone’s 2nd favourite team and a gutsy win away from home only enhanced that.  Difficult one to allocate when the losing side has 4 of the top disposal winners though.  Jack Martin no certainty for three but looks the best chance with 23 touches and 5 shots on goal.

Hawthorn 87 v North Melbourne 71

PlayerProjected Votes
Jaegar O'Meara2.5
Shaun Higgins2
Jack Ziebell0.5
Jasper Pittard0.5
Luke Breust0.5

Overcoming a sluggish start, Hawthorn rolled over the top of a marshmallow-like Kangaroos side who struggled to go with the Hawks after the pressure went up a notch. Jaeger O’Meara continues to enhance the reputation of Hawthorns rehab team with another dominant 31 possession game and should go close to best on in the impressive come from behind win.

Fremantle 71 v St Kilda 66 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Michael Walters2.5
Luke Ryan2
Ed Langdon1
Jack Billings0.5

Nathan Fyfe got knocked out and wont poll a vote. What the first half also provided was proof when Michael Walters is invested and playing midfield he’s a dangerous proposition. 

Richmond 66 v Collingwood 110 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Adam Treloar2
Scott Pendlebury1
Jordan De Goey1
Jack Crisp1
Dayne Beams1

If you’re a fan of Supercoach you’d understand that if the top 12 individual scores were attributed to one team, the other side probably didn’t go so well.  That side is Richmond and you can forget about them polling a Brownlow vote in this one. Adam Treloar’s going to feature with 39 possessions and a goal with De Goey’s 5 goal masterclass possibly falling in behind him.

Sydney 62 v Adelaide 88 – SCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Brad Crouch2
Rory Sloane1.5
Josh Kennedy1.5
Jake Lloyd1

Round 2 knee-jerk reaction: Sydney are cooked.  When they needed to up the tempo and chase down a deficit, the challenge looked beyond them.  Rory Sloane’s intensity was instrumental but with 26 disposals and a goal, we’re leaning towards Brad Crouch.

Essendon 65 v St Kilda 76 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Jade Gresham2.5
Jack Billings2
Dylan Shiel1.5

For St Kilda, it was consistency and an even spread of contributors that did the damage.  Jade Gresham’s two goals and 25 touches looks the most likely game for 3 votes.

Port Adelaide 88 v Carlton 72 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Rockliff2
Travis Boak2
Patrick Cripps1
Scott Lycett1

Gallant in defeat, the Blues fell just short of a Port Adelaide side surprising most with two wins to open their season.  The same Boak/Rockliff combo as round 1 were influential in  victory racking up 70 possessions between them and should land the 3 & 2 respectively.

Geelong 126 v Melbourne 46 – GMHBA Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Dangerfield3
Clayton Oliver2
Tim Kelly0.5
Tom Stewart0.5

Melbourne has setup a mouth-watering wooden spoon clash with their crosstown rivals Essendon by outdoing the Dons first two weeks efforts and losing by 80 points taking over bottom place on the ladder. Geelong dominated from the get go and with some new found space and time, Dangerfield flourished, collecting 37 possessions and kicking two goals.

West Coast 104 v GWS 52 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Luke Shuey2.5
Lachie Whitfield2
Dom Sheed1.5

Don’t be surprised if West Coast go through the season not dropping a game at Optus and don’t be surprised if Luke Shuey polls 20+ on Brownlow night. 28 possessions and two goals gets him top votes in this one.

North Melbourne 87 v Brisbane 107 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Ben Cunnington2
Shaun Higgins1

A maturing Lions outfit is fast becoming a scary proposition and with the likes of Lachie Neale at the helm collecting 40+ disposals, the sky is the limit!

Hawthorn 87 v Western Bulldogs 106

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Macrae2
Jaegar O'Meara1.5
Josh Schache1
Tory Dickson1
Tom Liberatore0.5

An exhilarating nine-goal final term sealed what was an extraordinary victory.  Five goals down at the final change the Dogs managed to secure a stunning 19-point victory over a Hawks side down to two on the bench and out on their feet.  Nine of their midfielders managed 20 disposals or more and hats off to the few who land the 3/2/1 in order. Macrae and O’Meara should feature though.

Gold Coast 61 v Fremantle 58

PlayerProjected Votes
Alex Sexton2
Jarrod Harbrow1.5
Bradley Hill1.5
Jack Martin0.5
David Swallow0.5

2019s easy beats are not so easy to beat. Alex Sexton leads the Coleman Medal. Could he be leading the Brownlow? Probably not but wowee!

Carlton 64 v Richmond 97 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Trent Cotchin2
Patrick Cripps1.5
Toby Nankervis1.5
Nic Newman1

20 mins in and it looked like Carlton’s JLT hype balloon was about to sink like a lead balloon.  But for the first time for what feels like an eternity, Carlton actually looked alright after a disastrous opening quarter.  Cripps of course fired again in another Carlton loss racking up 21 contested possessions however with the W, we’re leaning towards Trent Cotchin’s 31 possessions as the standout game.

Collingwood 65 v Geelong 72 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Tim Kelly2.5
Patrick Dangerfield1.5
Adam Treloar1
Gary Ablett1

You get the feeling every big game Tim Kelly plays will be a bittersweet one for the Cats faithful.  All but signed for the Eagles in 2020, it was the classy midfielders 31 possessions and 9 clearances that catapulted the Cats to a massive first up victory against premiership favourites Collingwood.

Melbourne 61 v Port Adelaide 87 – MCG

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Rockliff2.5
Justin Westhoff2
Travis Boak1
Christian Salem0.5

In what was the first of many boilovers for the opening round, Port Adelaide produced a flawless second half performance to stun the fancied Demons. With four debutants and another two playing their first game for the club, there was plenty to like about Ken Hinkley’s side on Saturday afternoon. Five goals to Justin Westhoff and 44 possessions to Tom Rockliff look to be the stand out performances in the 26 point win.

Adelaide 55 – Hawthorn 87 – Adelaide Oval

PlayerProjected Votes
James Worpel3
James Sicily1.5
Jaegar O'Meara1.5

Considering their own fans didn’t give them much of a chance, Hawthorns 22 point win proved to us all that maybe it’s best to see a sample of the real stuff before investing our hard earned. Another pre-season ‘hype’ team failed to deliver when it counted outclassed by yet another Alistair Clarkson masterclass. James Worpel’s two goals and 27 possessions was as impressive game as any in the round and will land him the three votes later in the year.

Bulldogs 82 v Sydney 65 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Marcus Bontempelli3
Jack Macrae1.5
Tom Liberatore1
Aaron Naughton0.5

A sluggish Swans left it too late falling short to a Bulldogs side much resembling their 2016 triumph. The young side dominated territory outnumbering Sydney at the contest allowing the likes of Bont and Jack Macrae to collect possessions at will.

Brisbane 102 v West Coast 58 – Gabba

PlayerProjected Votes
Hugh McCluggage2
Lachie Neale1.5
Dom Sheed1.5
Jarrod Berry1

If you went four from four in your tipping on Saturday you’ve got no idea… The Lions finished off what was a crazy day of results kicking 12 of the final 14 goals to run out comfortable 44 point victors against the defending premiers. An even spread of contributors makes this one hard to allocate however we’re expecting Hugh McCluggage’s 20 possessions/ 1 goal game and Lachie Neale’s 29 possessions to feature in the umpires voting.

St Kilda 85 v Gold Coast 84 – Marvel Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Seb Ross2
Jack Billings2
Alex Sexton1.5
Brayden Fiorini0.5

Alan Richardson was one relieved man come 4pm Sunday. 30 minutes earlier he may just have been clearing his schedule for a year’s holiday. Despite that and a nervous last term featuring plenty of fumbles, his side managed to scrap their way to victory and save him from any early scrutiny. You’ll be doing well to land the trifecta in this one but Seb Ross’s 27 possessions and Jack Billings 28 should see the two midfielders feature heavily in the 6 votes.

GWS 112 v Essendon 40 – Giants Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Stephen Coniglio3
Tim Taranto2
Lachie Whitfield1

Woosha must be starting to feel the pressure. No longer is the drug saga a reasonable excuse for insipid performances. A 72 point drubbing will have him and the underperforming Dons in the spotlight throughout the week. GWS on the other hand lead by a dominant Stephen Coniglio looked like a team that has plenty of depth regardless of an off season cleanout.

Fremantle 141 – North Melbourne 59 – Optus Stadium

PlayerProjected Votes
Nat Fyfe2.5
Cam McCarthy2
Bradley Hill1
Darcy Tucker0.5

Once again, the punters took the Ross Lyon bluff. An uninspiring JLT and a less than ideal lead up looked to have counted for little as they made the Kangaroos look second rate in front of a packed crowd at Optus stadium. Usually this means 3 votes to Nat Fyfe and most likely in this case, yes, however Cam McCarthy’s 5 goals & 20 touches could genuinely challenge.

Voting Method

Six Brownlow Medal votes are assigned to each game, however, the Betfair predictive method does not follow the 3-2-1 formula of the AFL. Votes vary from 0.5 to 3, allowing for more than three players to be acknowledged. This means less players are overlooked, and when the model is confident, more Brownlow votes can be allocated to a particular player. The trap of allocating 3-2-1 is that there are many matches with few standout players, and impactful 3s and 2s can be allocated to players that the umpires’ didn’t notice.

Voting Tiers:

3 votes: Clearly the best player on the ground

2.5 votes: Questionably the best player on the ground

2 votes: Clear second best player on the ground or possible best in a crowded field

1.5 votes: Potentially second best player on the ground, often shared by multiple players

1 vote: Likely third best, but can be shared by multiple players

0.5 votes: Wasn’t the standout but their influence should be acknowledged

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