2020 Brownlow Medal Predictor

Betfair’s pro punting team, The Analysts, have created a 2020 Brownlow Predictor. You can see the leaderboard below, which can be sorted by team if you prefer. Plus, underneath the Brownlow Predictor is the allocated votes for every game.

You can expect the votes to be up to date Monday each week.

For our betting preview for this year’s Brownlow Medal, head here.

Lastly, if you’re curious who our Analyst’s tipped before the 2019 season, click here.

2020 Brownlow Medal Predictor Leaderboard

St Kilda 73 v Carlton 55 – Marvel Stadium

Jack Steele did a number on Brownlow fancy Patrick Cripps all while collecting 23 touches himself. With 28 pressure acts (double his next teammate) and 9 tackles was it enough though to beat Rowan Marshall’s seven clearances (#1 in game), five I50s (#1 in game), twelve contested possessions (#1 in game) & 403 metres gained (#3 in game)? We’ve got the gun ruckman just.

PlayerProjected Votes
Rowan Marshall3
Jack Steele2
Jack Billings0.5
Nick Coffield0.5

Essendon 63 v Collingwood 48 – MCG

Is Dylan Shiel a Brownlow Medal smoky? He’s averaging 26 disposals, 7 clearances and 3.8 I50s. We’ve got him on six but with a game up his sleeve he has to be in the conversation as a contender if this form continues.

PlayerProjected Votes
Dylan Shiel3
Jake Stringer1.5
Adam Saad1
Brayden Maynard0.5

West Coast 77 v Sydney 43 – Metricon Stadium

Finally a hub win for the Eagles. With their season on tenterhooks the Eagles of old were unleashed. Elliot Yeo and Nic Naitanui combined in the middle to dominate the clearances (36-23) and look most likely to poll the 3 & 2.

PlayerProjected Votes
Elliot Yeo2
Nic Naitanui1.5
Dom Sheed1.5
JJ Kennedy0.5
Oscar Allen0.5

Geelong 89 v Gold Coast 52 – GMHBA

Before this game, Matt Rowell had polled perfect 10s in three of his first four AFL games in the AFL coaches votes. The fewest career games in history was 31 (Tim Kelly) before that. The Brownlow chat midweek was warranted but unfortunately, a shoulder injury looks to have cut the unlikely dream short. That unfortunate incident aside, The Cats were too good with Tom Hawkins’ 17 disposal/ 3 goal game the standout.

PlayerProjected Votes
Tom Hawkins3
Sam Menegola2
Mitch Duncan1

Brisbane 85 v Port Adelaide 48 – Gabba

Lachie Neale is averaging 29.4 Disposals/ 6.8 clearances/ 3.8 I50s and 1.2 goals a game. His team is winning and we’ve got him locked in for three 3 vote games and polling 4.5 in the other two. He’s going to take some catching on this form.

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Jarryd Lyons2
Hugh McCluggage1

Western Bulldogs 87 v North Melbourne 38 – Marvel Stadium

Their swagger is back. Took them a few rounds to find it but the Dogs are well and truly back in the finals race. Tim English backed up with another strong performance (22 touches) but with six goals, Josh Bruce should poll the three.

PlayerProjected Votes
Josh Bruce3
Tim English2
Jason Johannisen1

Fremantle 54 v Adelaide 34 – Metricon Stadium

Who doesn’t love David Mundy. Arguably one of the most underrated careers of recent memory, he gives 100% every week and without Fyfe, took the lead role in the midfield to be best afield. With 25 touches and six clearances his game looked slightly more eye-catching than Andrew Brayshaw’s 23 touches and 8 marks.

PlayerProjected Votes
David Mundy2
Andrew Brayshaw2
Darcy Tucker1

Richmond 79 v Melbourne 52 – MCG

2018 was the outlier. Case closed. The Dees are 6 wins and 22 losses since winning back to back finals and all they’ve got going for them is the ability to play another team back into form. This week it was the Tigers turn. Despite some late injuries, the defending premiers looked unchallenged all day and with a 3 goal/ 27 disposal game, Kane Lambert polls the three.

PlayerProjected Votes
Kane Lambert3
Max Gawn2
Christian Petracca0.5
Michael Hibberd0.5

GWS 83 v Hawthorn 49 – Giants Stadium

Beware the sleeping Giants. Two on the trot and with a conversion rate of 72% of I50s hitting the scoreboard, they’re extremely dangerous. When up and running they’re also difficult to allocate votes for. Nick Haynes was superb down back, taking 11 marks and finishing with 21 disposals but you cant ignore the contributions of Josh Kelly (30 disposals), Harry Perryman (28 disposals) and Lachie Whitfield (28 disposals) either. A tough one.

PlayerProjected Votes
Nick Haynes2
Harry Perryman1.5
Lachie Whitfield1.5
Josh Kelly1

Western Bulldogs 67 v Sydney 39 – SCG

The Bont was the man for the big moment on Thursday night. In an inspired performance, and arguably his best as captain, the gun midfielder carried his side to victory with two crucial goals amongst 19 quality touches to be best afield in a big away win for his club.

PlayerProjected Votes
Marcus Bontempelli3
Tim English2
Tom Papley1

GWS 66 v Collingwood 64 – Giants Stadium

A bit of a deja vu in this one with a similar result. Like the prelim, the Giants held on under immense pressure leaving the Pies with plenty of questions to answer. Pendles was the standout for us but we’re hesitant to give him the three votes in a losing game. With 19 touches and three goals, Toby Greene deserves to edge him out but will the Umpires see it that way?

PlayerProjected Votes
Scott Pendlebury2
Toby Greene2
Lachie Whitfield1
Josh Kelly1

Port Adelaide 89 v West Coast 41 – Metricon Stadium

Port Adelaide have never lost when Charlie Dixon kicks 4 goals or more. He kicked 6.2 and is a moral for the three votes.

PlayerProjected Votes
Charlie Dixon3
Brad Ebert1.5
Luke Shuey1
Andrew Gaff0.5

St Kilda 93 v Richmond 67 – Marvel Stadium

If you get the 3/2/1 right in this one you’ve done well. In what looks an impossible game to allocate correctly we’re leaning towards Rowan Marshall’s two goal, 15 possession, (10 contested) and 25 hitout game. The acquisition of Paddy Ryder in the off-season surprised many but with his late withdrawal, Marshall relished the opportunity to play ruck one-out and looked the most influential.

PlayerProjected Votes
Rowan Marshall2.5
Dan Butler1.5
Trent Cotchin0.5
Brad Hill0.5
Toby Nankervis0.5
Jack Billings0.5

Carlton 52 v Essendon 51 – MCG

Sam Docherty could well be the difference between Carlton having a 2-2 record compared to 0-4. Stood up when counted and with 29 of his 32 disposals considered effective, he was the standout in the nail-biting win.

PlayerProjected Votes
Sam Docherty2.5
David Cunningham2
Levi Casboult1
Michael Gibbons0.5

Gold Coast 64 v Fremantle 51 – Metricon Stadium

He’s played just 4 games but Matt Rowell is currently the 4th favourite to win the Brownlow. Let that sink in.

PlayerProjected Votes
Matt Rowell3
Touk Miller1.5
Brandon Ellis1
Jarrod Witts0.5

Brisbane 83 v Adelaide 46 – Gabba

Lachie Neale anytime goalscorer backers in a coma. 0.6 is a bad beat. Lachie Neale Brownlow backers however are daring to dream. With another 31 disposal game he’s the leader after 4 rounds.

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Hugh McCluggage2
Jarrod Berry1

Geelong 47 v Fremantle 44 – MCG

If this one had a crowd, I wonder how many would have gone home at H/T? We’re getting some stinkers this year and the first half of this one surely takes the cake. To top it off it looks a lottery allocating the votes. With a goal each and 46 touches between them, Danger & Cam Guthrie look the most likely.

PlayerProjected Votes
Cameron Guthrie2
Patrick Dangerfield2
Sam Menegola1
Max Gawn0.5
Clayton Oliver0.5

Hawthorn 58 v North Melbourne 54 – Marvel Stadium

Chad Wingard has kicked 3+ goals five times since 2017. Three of those have come in the first four rounds of this year. We’ve got him 3rd behind Neale & Rowell. Fair start to the season from the ex-Power star.

PlayerProjected Votes
Chad Wingard2.5
Shaun Higgins1.5
Tom Mitchell1
Todd Goldstein0.5
James Worpel0.5

Hawthorn 71 v Richmond 39 – MCG

Ahhh to be a Hawks supporter. It’s been an arduous re-build for the once mighty club. One entire week to be precise, but they’ve come out of the slump looking like world-beaters. The unsociable Hawks are back and there’s none more unsociable than James Sicily. Racking up 23 disposals at 87% disposal efficiency with 6 intercepts, the much-maligned defender looked a class above all night and should find himself with a vote in what looks a difficult game to allocate.

PlayerProjected Votes
Jaegar O'Meara2
Isaac Smith2
James Sicily1
Chad Wingard1

Western Bulldogs 57 v GWS 33 – Marvel Stadium

With the obvious drop in revenue streams this year, you bet the AFL are hoping for a GWS v WBD final. The fines they receive from this matchup might just make it a profitable year. Fines aside though, it was a lopsided affair all night against an all too familiar injury-plagued Giants. Jack Macrae (25 disposals, seven tackles) racked them up at will and should poll well in what was a crucial win for the Dogs finals prospects.

PlayerProjected Votes
Jack Macrae2
Tom Liberatore1.5
Caleb Daniel1.5
Harry Perryman1

Sydney 71 v North Melbourne 60 – Marvel Stadium

The so-called AFL pundits out there had the Kangas as genuine contenders last week. Hearing crickets now. 11 points was flattering to them; outclassed from qtr time onwards. Difficult one to allocate but hard to look past the Swans usual suspects. Josh Kennedy (22 disposals, six clearances), Luke Parker (19 disposals, five clearances) & Isaac Heeney (18 disposals, one goal) should poll the 3/2/1.

PlayerProjected Votes
Isaac Heeney2
Josh Kennedy2
Luke Parker2

Collingwood 81 v St Kilda 37 – MCG

Another hype-team out of Rnd 2 were the mighty Saints. Now somewhere on the ocean floor after going down like a lead balloon. Outclassed all day by a Collingwood team that is rightfully premiership favourite. The Pies look slick and there’s no one slicker than the classy Steele Sidebottom. His 126 Fantasy points would equate to 157.5 under the regular format and is the obvious choice for 3 votes.

PlayerProjected Votes
Steele Sidebottom3
Brayden Maynard1
Brodie Grundy1
Scott Pendlebury0.5
Taylor Adams0.5

Carlton 79 v Geelong 77 – GMHBA

Maybe Clarko was right? The Cats aren’t that good. It’s been 4 years since the Blues kicked nine goals in the first half and they managed to do so at GMHBA with shortened quarters. Work that out! Was great seeing Eddie do his thing ( two goals/ seven score involvements from 12 disposals) but hard to go past Brownlow fav P.Cripps who kicked two crucial goals and collected a team high 24 touches to lead his team to their first win of the season.

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Cripps2.5
Eddie Betts1.5
Sam Docherty1
Levi Casboult1

Brisbane 74 v West Coast 44 – Gabba

Lachie Neale is on a tear and looks the obvious leader in the count after three rounds. With SC scores of 157, 171 & 164 there’s a chance his collected 9 votes after 3 games.

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale3
Hugh McCluggage2
Andrew Gaff0.5
Jarryd Lyons0.5

Gold Coast 82 v Adelaide 29 – Metricon Stadium

Fair play to the Crows. They’ve managed to create the blueprint on how to totally ruin a football club within the space of three years. They’re officially cooked while the Suns are just heating up. Hard not to be excited about their list and especially so, their #1 pick.

Money is coming in thick and fast for him to pull off the unthinkable….. winning the Brownlow. He laid more tackles than the Crouch brothers and Rory Sloane combined whilst kicking two goals and collecting 20 disposals in a 53-point thumping. He’s odds on to collect his 2nd three vote game in only his 3rd AFL game.

PlayerProjected Votes
Matt Rowell2.5
Touk Miller2
Lachie Weller1
Darcy Macpherson0.5

Port Adelaide 70 v Fremantle 41 – Metricon Stadium

Once again… where do you fit Nat Fyfe? 23 disposals (17 contested), 6 score involvements, 1 goal and a game high 166 SC points has him polling, it’s just a matter of where? We’ve landed on two.

PlayerProjected Votes
Travis Boak2.5
Nat Fyfe2
Michael Walters1
Ollie Wines0.5

Collingwood 36 v Richmond 36 – MCG

Footy…is…back! Not the greatest of spectacles to get us started but when the alternative is Escape to the Chateau, give us a lacklustre draw any day. In what seems a fitting result in this unique, COVID-impacted season, the Pies somehow held on for a draw despite not kicking a goal for 67 consecutive minutes. Without a lean to a winning side, it was Pendles’ game high 31 disposals and insanely smooth moving that was the standout game for us.

PlayerProjected Votes
Scott Pendlebury2
Steele Sidebottom1.5
Jeremy Howe1
Trent Cotchin1
Taylor Adams0.5

Geelong 108 v Hawthorn 34 – GMHBA

A 3 month hiatus rolling into shortened quarters may just be a blessing in disguise for the ageing Cats. With a combined 49 disposals and 3 goals, Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett looked sharp all day, relishing the 16 minute quarters under the new format. With home games to be played predominantly at GMHBA Stadium as well, the Cats become an interesting prospect for futures bets.

PlayerProjected Votes
Joel Selwood2.5
Gary Ablett1.5
Rhys Stanley1
Patrick Dangerfield0.5
Gryan Miers0.5

Brisbane 81 v Fremantle 69 – Gabba

Warning. Nat Fyfe once again put his team on his shoulders, kicking 3 goals and collecting 24 disposals in a losing game. Allocate votes with caution.

PlayerProjected Votes
Lachie Neale2.5
Michael Walters1.5
Nat Fyfe1.5
Charlie Cameron0.5

Carlton 53 v Melbourne 54 – Marvel Stadium

Titus O’Reily said it best, ‘Both these teams wanted to celebrate the return of football in their traditional way, torturing their fans.’ And that they did. The Dees hung on in not so convincing fashion with the ever-improving Petracca playing a pivotal role in what would have been a massive sweat for their long suffering fans.

PlayerProjected Votes
Max Gawn3
Christian Petracca2
Clayton Oliver1

Gold Coast 90 v West Coast 46 – Metricon Stadium

Has there been a better 2nd game of AFL football than Matt Rowell’s? 26 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 11 ground balls, 7 tackles, 2 goals and 171 SC points is a 3 vote game any day of the week.

PlayerProjected Votes
Matt Rowell3
Lachie Weller2
Luke Shuey1

Port Adelaide 110 v Adelaide 35 – Adelaide Oval

Early days but 2020 is already looking grim for Adelaide. For Port Adelaide however, we continue to see the form that’s had them sitting on top of the ladder for 3 months. An exciting brand of football with none more exciting than Connor Rozee. The young gun may just pip the Showdown medallist Travis Boak with his eye-catching 8 clearances/ 17 disposal game.

PlayerProjected Votes
Travis Boak2
Connor Rozee2
Steven Motlop1.5
Xavier Duursma0.5

GWS 60 v North Melbourne 80 – Giants Stadium

Yeah, Kangaroos winning was impressive but has anyone ever seen a player shake a Matt De Boer tag like Shaun Higgins? The star midfielder amassed an impressive 28 disposals, six clearances against the games best tagger to be the most influential player in what was a stunning win for the Kangas.

PlayerProjected Votes
Shaun Higgins2.5
Todd Goldstein1.5
Jared Polec1.5
Callan Ward0.5

Sydney 73 v Essendon 79 – SCG

How many beers were had with the Kangas on the flight back? The Dons hung on to record their first win at the SCG for 11 years thanks to another Zach Merrett masterclass that proved the difference. With 29 disposals and a goal, the classy midfielder should land the 3 votes whenever that vote count may be.

PlayerProjected Votes
Adam Saad2
Zach Merrett2
Andrew McGrath1.5
Jake Lloyd0.5

St Kilda 88 v Western Bulldogs 49 – Marvel Stadium

Too early for panic stations? One of the pre-season hype teams sits dead last with a combined losing deficit of 91 points. The Dogs are without a bite in a season where you’re allowed little margin for error.

They need a win bad, while the Saints should be extending the contract’s of their recruitment department if Sunday’s game is anything to go by. All of a sudden they had speed to burn and there was no quicker than ex-Swan Zac Jones. The speedster impressed with 29 disposals and a goal and looked best on ground all day.

PlayerProjected Votes
Zak Jones2.5
Jack Billings2
Hunter Clark0.5
Dan Butler0.5
Bailey Smith0.5

Richmond 105 v Carlton 81 – MCG

For the traditionalists out there, the season opened as it should have. Carlton were sacrificed and supporters were seen walking away at halftime; albeit out of their own loungerooms. Cripps and Dusty will poll votes and the Tigers made it look easy. Standard season opener.

PlayerProjected Votes
Patrick Cripps2
Dion Prestia2
Dustin Martin1.5
Jack Martin0.5

Collingwood 86 v Western Bulldogs 34 – Marvel Stadium

One week in and the Bulldogs hype-train has lost most of its passengers. Brodie Grundy manhandled Tim English the entire night to be best on ground with 37 hitouts, one goal, and 19 disposals, reminding us that the Pies will be a force once again.

PlayerProjected Votes
Brodie Grundy2.5
Taylor Adams1.5
Scott Pendlebury1
Chris Mayne0.5
Jeremy Howe0.5

Essendon 63 v Fremantle 57 – Marvel Stadium

Essendon fans rejoice! September football beckons. Every club, of course, is in the same boat, but regardless, the lid’s off. Dylan Shiel amassed an impressive 35 disposals in the new shortened format in what was a clear best on ground display.

PlayerProjected Votes
Dylan Shiel3
Nat Fyfe1.5
Andrew McGrath1
Rory Lobb0.5

Gold Coast 29 v Port Adelaide 76 – Metricon Stadium

One for the purists. Without Travis Boak and a few support acts there wasn’t a lot of content we could use from this one. 25 Disposals (76% Disposal efficiency), 7 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements and 425 Metres Gained looks enough for the ex-Port skipper to poll the 3.

PlayerProjected Votes
Travis Boak2
Tom Rockliff1.5
Connor Rozee1.5
Darcy Byrne-Jones0.5
Robbie Gray0.5

Adelaide 71 v Sydney 74 – Adelaide Oval

New coach, same problems. Despite a last-minute shot to win it, the Crows looked flat and without any run. Outplayed from quarter time onwards, the Isaac Heeney-led Swans were a class above with the smooth moving forward kicking four goals and amassing a massive 152 SC points from just 16 touches.

PlayerProjected Votes
Isaac Heeney2.5
Luke Parker2
Josh Kennedy1
Wayne Milera0.5

GWS 105 v Geelong 73 – Spotless Stadium

Always depleted, GWS continue to prove they have the depth to plug the holes. If any team is going to benefit from this brief hiatus from matchplay, it’s the team from NSW. Harry Perryman and Toby Greene kicked 8 between them in what was a comfortable round 1 win, but add a Taranto and Callan Ward to this side and the future looks bright.

PlayerProjected Votes
Harry Perryman2
Toby Greene1.5
Stephen Coniglio1
Jacob Hopper1
Mitch Duncan0.5

North Melbourne 56 v St Kilda 54 – Marvel Stadium

Even in these bizarre times, some things will never change. St Kilda blowing a match-winning lead is one of them. A 31 point lead against an injury-depleted Kangaroos wasn’t enough against the courageous shinboners; and there was no more courageous than Ben Cunnington. Carrying the midfield on his back, the underrated Cunnington collected 25 Disposals, 4 Marks, 7 Tackles & 2 Goals in a match-winning performance.

PlayerProjected Votes
Ben Cunnington3
Jared Polec2
Jy Simpkin0.5
Jack Billings0.5

Hawthorn 90 v Brisbane 62 – MCG

Chad Wingard carried his late 2019 season form into the new campaign. Picking up from where he left off last year, the classy forward looked fit and ready for a season with more midfield time. Hawks fans will be hoping that his 20 disposals and 3 goals is just a small snapshot of what he’ll deliver on a consistent basis when play resumes.

PlayerProjected Votes
Chad Wingard3
Lachie Neale2
Tom Mitchell1

West Coast 78 v Melbourne 51 – Optus Stadium

The noise of affirmation wasn’t required. West Coast are just a better side than the Dees who looked no different to their 17th-placed 2019 team. Despite a gallant display by Jack Viney (34 disposals/ 1 goal), the game was won in the midfield for the Eagles. Andrew Gaff (30 possessions), and Luke Shuey (27 and five clearances) looked standouts in what was the last game we’ll see for quite some time. Dark days.

PlayerProjected Votes
Andrew Gaff2
Jack Viney2
Luke Shuey1
Dom Sheed0.5
Christian Petracca0.5

Voting Method

Six Brownlow Medal votes are assigned to each game, however, the Betfair predictive method does not follow the 3-2-1 formula of the AFL. Votes vary from 0.5 to 3, allowing for more than three players to be acknowledged. This means less players are overlooked, and when the model is confident, more Brownlow votes can be allocated to a particular player. The trap of allocating 3-2-1 is that there are many matches with few standout players, and impactful 3s and 2s can be allocated to players that the umpires didn’t notice.

Voting Tiers:

3 votes: Clearly the best player on the ground

2.5 votes: Questionably the best player on the ground

2 votes: Clear second best player on the ground or possible best in a crowded field

1.5 votes: Potentially second best player on the ground, often shared by multiple players

1 vote: Likely third best, but can be shared by multiple players

0.5 votes: Wasn’t the standout but their influence should be acknowledged

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