2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor

Betfair’s pro punting team, The Analysts, have created a 2021 Brownlow Predictor. You can see the leaderboard below, which can be sorted by team if you prefer. Plus, underneath the Brownlow Predictor is the allocated votes for every game.

You can expect the votes to be up to date Monday each week.

Lastly, if you’re curious, you can see who our Analysts tipped before the 2019 and 2020 seasons.


2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor Leaderboard




RICHMOND 134 ST KILDA 48

Shane Edwards 2
Dustin Martin 1.5
Shai Bolton 1.5
Jack Riewoldt 1

The choice of continuing with the floating fixture is about to be justified. Removing St Kilda from prime time will be first cab off the rank and rightly so. For the second time in three weeks they were listless and dismantled with ease and this time it was the Tigers turn to feast. One of four have claims for the three but 29 & 1.1 from Shane Edwards looks the most likely.


WEST COAST 103 COLLINGWOOD 76

Dom Sheed 2.5
Jack Redden 1.5
Andrew Gaff 1
Oscar Allen 0.5
Liam Duggan 0.5

What is it about Dom Sheed and playing Collingwood? 3 goals in a row in the third term to go with 28 touches adds just a little more salt into the gaping wounds inflicted from 2018.


WESTERN BULLDOGS 118 GOLD COAST 56

Marcus Bontempelli 3
Josh Dunkley 2
Adam Treloar 1

No need to worry about others taking votes off the Bont when the statline reads: 33 disposals, 3 goals, 798 metres gained & 5 clearances.


GWS 71 SYDNEY 69

Josh Kelly 2
Lance Franklin 2
Jacob Hopper 1.5
Will Hayward 0.5

Josh Kelly’s move to a more fwd/ mid role certainly paid dividend’s in this one. Johnny on the spot to kick the winner and putting his 26 disposals up in lights to be the frontrunner for best on.


PORT ADELAIDE 96 CARLTON 68

Karl Amon 2.5
Ollie Wines 2
Sam Walsh 1
Travis Boak 0.5

Hindsight is a lovely thing. Port Adelaide jumped $1.9 vs Carlton. How the hell did we miss that one?! In a cakewalk, it was the smooth moving Karl Amon (28 disposals, 1 goal) that should land the three.


BRISBANE 102 ESSENDON 45

Lachie Neale 2
Hugh McCluggage 2
Joe Daniher 1
Jarryd Lyons 1

2020’s Brownlow Medallist is finally on the board! 38 disposals, 8 clearances and 2 goals was a welcome return to form for the Lion star.


FREMANTLE 84 ADELAIDE 72

Andrew Brayshaw 3
David Mundy 2
Rory Laird 0.5
Paul Seedsman 0.5

33 Disposals, 7 clearances, 4 tackles & 517 metres gained. Andrew Brayshaw’s star continues to rise and so does his position on our leaderboard.


MELBOURNE 104 HAWTHORN 54

Max Gawn 3
Christian Salem 1.5
Clayton Oliver 1
Ed Langdon 0.5

The test comes next week. Beat the Tigers and the Dees confirm they’re a contender. On a roll and all contributing but it’s the form of Max Gawn that is standing out. Perennially under-performing on Brownlow night, surely the umpires haven’t missed this 26 disposals/ 1 goal game!


GEELONG 77 NORTH MELBOURNE 47

Tom Stewart 2.5
Brendan Parfitt 1.5
Sam Menegola 1.5
Jack Ziebell 0.5

We have a new contender for worst game of the year. Shocking. It was a win, but the Cats have concerns. Away from a vintage intercepting game from Tom Stewart (14 intercept possessions), they looked slow and without any flair.

SYDNEY 83 ESSENDON 80

Luke Parker 2
Zach Merrett 1.5
Callum Mills 1
Jordan Ridley 1
Nick Hind 0.5

You can throw form and ladder positions out the window when these two go at it. Almost guaranteed a close one. For the fifth time in their past seven contests the game was decided by 10 points or less and this time around it was the Swans who took the chocolates. Their midfield was strong in the contest and there was no more dominant than the ever-reliable Luke Parker. 16 contested possessions in amongst his 31 touches looked the standout performance.


PORT ADELAIDE 79 RICHMOND 77

Travis Boak 2
Ollie Wines 1.5
Dan Houston 1
Alir Alir 1
Jayden Short 0.5

A small consolation for their Prelim loss but some revenge nonetheless for the Power. Undermanned and limping to the line it was Travis Boak’s dominance around the centre square (7 clearances) that was vital in stemming the tide.


WESTERN BULLDOGS 73 BRISBANE 54

Adam Treloar 2.5
Jack Macrae 2
Tim English 1.5

Fair to say Adam Treloar is settling in nicely down at Whitten Hill. Sitting pretty on top and now contributing with an increased workload post-injury. 29 disposals to go with 5 clearances makes it a strong fortnight for the Ex-Pie.


ST KILDA 102 WEST COAST 82

Jack Steele 3
Brad Hill 1
Max King 1
Brad Crouch 1

Trailing by 33 points, it was looking grim for the Sainters. Staring down the barrel of another thumping they were able to find their mojo when it all looked lost. A scintillating 3rd quarter on the back of a barnstorming game from captain Steele (33 disposals & 1 goal) saw them collect the all-important W.


CARLTON 70 GOLD COAST 59

Ed Curnow 3
Hugh Greenwood 2
Liam Jones 0.5
Jack Bowes 0.5

One that wouldn’t have broken any ratings records, but it’s 4-point banked for the Blues and that’s all that matters. With Cripps and Walsh kept somewhat quiet, it was Ed Curnow who took charge. 32 disposals and 8 clearances land him the three in our eyes.


GWS 90 COLLINGWOOD 60

Toby Greene 3
Callan Ward 1.5
Lachie Ash 1.5

Adam Treloar would be a handy recruit right about now. Taylor Adams goes down and so did a Pies outfit without any sort of Plan B or flair. Outplayed from the outset it was the stand-in skipper who was the central figure to the Giants first win of the season. Toby Greene’s 5 goals steered his side to a vital win.


ADELAIDE 109 NORTH MELBOURNE 68

Lachlan Sholl 2.5
Rory Laird 2
Reilly O’Brien 1
Paul Seedsman 0.5

Lachie Sholl is a running machine. Averaging over 16km’s a game, he notched up 17.3km in this one, all while collecting 31 disposals. A 2nd Rising star nod is on the horizon.


MELBOURNE 85 GEELONG 60

Christian Petracca 3
Clayton Oliver 1
Jack Viney 1
Max Gawn 0.5
Bailey Fritsch 0.5

27 years since the Dees have opened a season with 4 wins. Surely it’s only a matter of time before they let their long-suffering supporters down…? With Petracca on fire, maybe not? We’ve got the Dees superstar polling every game thus far.


FREMANTLE 96 HAWTHORN 81

Nat Fyfe 2.5
David Mundy 2
Tom Mitchell 1
Sean Darcy 0.5

Nat Fyfe and 3 votes in a win is usually a lay down misery. Does inaccuracy play a part in this one though? With 0.6 we’ve allocated the 2.5.

BRISBANE 73 COLLINGWOOD 72

The Footy Gods spoke. Zac Bailey got his goal after the siren. Huge win for the Lions top 4 hopes on the back of a huge last quarter from Hugh McCluggage. 28 disposals but it was the 11 touches and 232 metres gained when the game was on the line in the last that should catch the umpires eye.

Hugh McCluggage 2
Brodie Grundy 2
Daniel Rich 1.5
Jarryd Lyons 0.5


WESTERN BULLDOGS 167 NORTH MELBOURNE 39

Credit where credit is due. Steve Hocking may have revived the big forward! 10 goals to Josh Bruce made the 128-point drubbing worth watching.

Josh Bruce 3
Adam Treloar 2
Josh Dunkley 1


ADELAIDE 95 GOLD COAST 85

Taylor Walker’s resurgence is the story of 2021. You could have written your own ticket for him to be the Brownlow leader after 3 rounds, but he is. 6.3 with 23 disposals has him in the box seat to poll another 3.

Taylor Walker 3
Rory Sloane 2
Rory Laird 1


SYDNEY 117 RICHMOND 72

Speaking of resurgence. The Swans didn’t spend too long in the rebuilding wilderness. 3 and zip and flying! Sam Wicks, another young Swan who looks a likely type and with 3.2 and 21 touches he should be one of many young Swans to poll early.

Sam Wicks 2
Callum Mills 2
Luke Parker 1
Tom Papley 0.5
Chad Warner 0.5


ESSENDON 143 ST KILDA 68

34 touches, 9 marks, 10 clearances, 16 pressure acts and a career best 542 metre gained. Amazing what playing a player in their preferred position can do. Darcy Parish take a bow.

Darcy Parish 2.5
Zach Merrett 2
Jordan Ridley 1
Jake Stringer 0.5


WEST COAST 108 PORT ADELAIDE 71

It’s a shame Luke Shuey’s hamstrings are put together by papier Mache as he’s a vital cog to the Eagles success. With 28 disposals he’ll go close to polling 3 before having 3 on the sidelines.

Luke Shuey 2.5
Andrew Gaff 2
Tim Kelly 1.5


CARLTON 109 FREMANTLE 64

2021…the year of the big forward. Harry McKay kicks 7.5 and we’ve wound back the clock 25 years.

Harry McKay 3
Patrick Cripps 2
Sam Walsh 1


GWS 102 MELBOURNE 68

Injury eventually took its toll and the undermanned Giants succumbed to a relentless Dees outfit. In an even spread of contributors it was Max Gawn’s 2.2 & 24 disposal game that looks the most likely for three.

Max Gawn 3
Toby Greene 1.5
Christian Petracca 1
Ed Langdon 0.5


GEELONG 69 HAWTHORN 64

11th game decided by less than a goal in the Hawkins/ Selwood era. Never disappoints. Guthrie was huge (43 disposals), O’Meara was huge (34 disposals) and Changkuoth Jiath (23 disposals & 445 metres gained) continues to dazzle and take the game on. Great watch.

Cam Guthrie 3
Mitch Duncan 1
Jaeger O’Meara 1
Changkuoth Jiath 1

COLLINGWOOD 106 CARLTON 85

If Darcy Moore doesn’t poll, you can shut the book on defenders polling for the rest of time. His 18 intercept possessions was second for most ever recorded by a Collingwood player and enabled his team to hold off a 3rd qtr Blues onslaught. Was the difference.

Taylor Adams 2.5
Scott Pendlebury 1.5
Darcy Moore 1.5
Jack Crisp 0.5


GEELONG 81 BRISBANE 80

It took winning a Brownlow for coaches to realise that Lachie Neale warrants attention. That’s two games now that the pre-season Brownlow fav has been stopped and the Lions have lost. Controversy aside, the game was a thriller and in Danger’s absence, their captain stood up. Forever the umpire’s friend, Joel Selwood was everywhere and with two goals to go with his 27 disposals (17 contested) he looks a big chance for 3.

Joel Selwood 2.5
Zach Tuohy 2
Cam Guthrie 1.5


SYDNEY 121 ADELAIDE 88

Two from two and suddenly a matchup vs the Tigers in Rnd 3 looks an intriguing one. The Swans have Buddy back, but it was the young guns who stole the show for a 2nd week in a row. Any one of multiple 2nd-gamers could poll but we’re leaning towards the 25 possession/708 metres gained from Braeden Campbell as the standout.

Taylor Walker 2
Braeden Campbell 2
Errol Gulden 1
Luke Parker 0.5
Josh Kennedy 0.5


PORT ADELAIDE 119 ESSENDON 65

Beaten by 41 points in the 2nd half last week, the Dons fell agonisingly short of beating that number in their next attempt at playing football. A 41-point drubbing in the first half vs Port put the game to bed pretty quickly and it was the emerging talent of Zac Butters (36 Disposals/1 Goal) that shone brightest.

Zac Butters 3
Ollie Wines 1.5
Dan Houston 1
Jordan Ridley 0.5


MELBOURNE 91 ST KILDA 73

Usually 37 disposals (21 contested) and 11 clearances in a winning side would land you the three without fuss. However, the 3 goal/24 disposal game from Jack Steele looms large to challenge Clayton Oliver.

Clayton Oliver 2.5
Jack Steele 2
Christian Petracca 1
Jade Gresham 0.5


GOLD COAST 98 NORTH MELBOURNE 39

Noah Anderson is going to be a star. A career-best 35 disposals made a bleak game somewhat watchable. When Matt Rowell finally gets some luck, look out.

Noah Anderson 3
Touk Miller 2
Lachie Wellar 1


RICHMOND 78 HAWTHORN 49

Dusty doing Dusty things. Standard. Someone put a man on him! 28 disposals and a goal puts him in poll for three.

Dustin Martin 2.5
Changkuoth Jiath 1.5
Tom Mitchell 1.5
Kane Lambert 0.5


WESTERN BULLDOGS 100 WEST COAST 93

In the best game of the year, the skipper produced a performance for the ages. 30 touches, 3 goals and the sealer to the Bont was a thing of beauty!

Marcus Bontempelli 3
Jack Macrae 2
Josh Dunkley 0.5
Bailey Smith 0.5


FREMANTLE 87 GWS 56

35 disposals at 35 years of age. A David Mundy masterclass late on a Sunday arvo is nothing new. Enough to beat Brayshaw’s 32 & two goals though?

Andrew Brayshaw 3
David Mundy 2
Lachie Schultz 0.5
Adam Cerra 0.5

RICHMOND 105 CARLTON 80

All preseason Richmond insiders have said, Dusty is in the best condition his ever been. We quickly found out they don’t lie. 31 disposals, 2 goals, 8 I50’s & 619 metres gained. God help us all….

Dustin Martin 3
Sam Walsh 1.5
Jack Graham 1.5


WESTERN BULLDOGS 69 COLLINGWOOD 53

Brodie Grundy has polled 9 Brownlow votes from his last 3 matches vs the Dogs. He’s now polled 9 votes from his last 4 matches vs the Dogs. Along with the majority of his Pies teammates, the All-Australian ruckman was outplayed from the outset. In what was a midfield masterclass, Bailey Smith’s 36 disposals and two goals looked the standout in the lopsided affair.

Bailey Smith 3
Jack Macrae 1.5
Marcus Bontempelli 1
Darcy Moore 0.5


MELBOURNE 80 FREMANTLE 58

An undermanned Freo at the G is the type of game that makes Dees fans shiver. Thankfully for the long-suffering supporters, there was nothing to worry about. Steven May and Jake Lever intercepted everything down back but until we see votes for defenders, we’ll always lean to the mids. 35 touches to Clayton Oliver and 24 to Petracca with the two goals look the more likely games to land the three.

Christian Petracca 2
Clayton Oliver 2
Steven May 1.5
Tom McDonald 0.5


ADELAIDE 103 GEELONG 91

4 games in and we’ll be surprised if there’s a bigger upset in 2021. Tipped for back-to-back wooden spoons by many, the Crows did a number on one of the Premiership favourites. Insult to injury, Danger can say goodbye to any chance of the Brownlow. There’s no getting out of this one.

Taylor Walker 3
Rory Laird 2
Isaac Smith 0.5
Patrick Dangerfield 0.5


HAWTHORN 92 ESSENDON 91

What a comeback. What a game! All but over at H/T, we were reminded why Tom Mitchell has a Charlie. 17 touches in the 3rd quarter alone were the catalyst to the comeback and enough to warrant the three outright.

Tom Mitchell 2.5
Andrew McGrath 1.5
Zach Merrett 1
Jaeger O’Meara 1


SYDNEY 125 BRISBANE 94

It was the Swans who looked the Premiership fancies and not the Lions in this one. Playing a thrilling brand of football that produced 15 goals across the 2nd & 3rd Qtrs, it was arguably the performance of the week. The debutants dazzled but it was the move of Callum Mills to the midfield that paid the most dividends. 29 disposals at 86% efficiency with two goals was by far a best on ground performance.

Callum Mills 3
Errol Gulden 1.5
Luke Parker 1.5


PORT ADELAIDE 117 NORTH MELBOURNE 65

Travis Boak wants to play until he’s 40. In another instrumental performance that returned a stat-line of 27 disposals, two goals, 7 clearances and 12 score involvements, we don’t see why not?!

Travis Boak 3
Ollie Wines 1
Jaidyn Stephenson 1
Orazio Fantasia 1


ST KILDA 86 GWS 78

Gutsy win and one that looks hard to allocate the votes, but when a forward collects 21 disposals and three goals, surely, it’s not a midfielder in this one? Include the 586 metres gained and Tim Membrey should get the three.

Tim Membrey 2.5
Hunter Clark 1.5
Jade Gresham 1
Jack Billings 0.5
Tim Taranto 0.5


WEST COAST 83 GOLD COAST 58

Depth personified. No Yeo, No Shuey and Andrew Gaff well held. No worries. Dom Sheed (34 disposals) & Tim Kelly (28 disposals) step up.

Dom Sheed 2
Tim Kelly 2
Shannon Hurn 1
David Swallow 0.5
Oscar Allen 0.5


Voting Method

Six Brownlow Medal votes are assigned to each game, however, the Betfair predictive method does not follow the 3-2-1 formula of the AFL. Votes vary from 0.5 to 3, allowing for more than three players to be acknowledged. This means less players are overlooked, and when the model is confident, more Brownlow votes can be allocated to a particular player. The trap of allocating 3-2-1 is that there are many matches with few standout players, and impactful 3s and 2s can be allocated to players that the umpires didn’t notice.

Voting Tiers:

3 votes: Clearly the best player on the ground

2.5 votes: Questionably the best player on the ground

2 votes: Clear second best player on the ground or possible best in a crowded field

1.5 votes: Potentially second best player on the ground, often shared by multiple players

1 vote: Likely third best, but can be shared by multiple players

0.5 votes: Wasn’t the standout but their influence should be acknowledged


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