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BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR

BROWNLOW MEDAL PREDICTOR

ROUND 1

Round 1 – Brownlow Votes and Article

 

CARL V RICH
PATRICK CRIPPS 2
JAGGA SMITH 2
JAYDEN SHORT 1
SAM WALSH 1

 

The Blues midfield were much stronger than their opening round efforts against the Swans, having the three most prolific ball winners and receiving predicted votes. Skipper and two-time Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps was the leading contested possession and clearance player with 19 and 9 respectively from his 32 disposals.

Jagga Smith proved once again why he is the short-priced favourite for the Rising Star, having an equal game high- 32 disposals and 11 score involvements in his second game of football.

Sam Walsh was effective with 30 disposals, 6 clearances and 480 meters gained in the Blues first win of the season.

Experienced Tiger- Jayden Short was the most influential player for his side, winning 29 disposals, taking 10 marks and making a game high- 753 meters as well as kicking a goal.

 

ESS V HAW
JACK GUNSTON 2.5
NICK WATSON 2.5
CONNOR MACDONALD 1

 

The Hawks responded in a big way back at the MCG, with a 62-point win to get their season back on track. The Hawthorn forward line had a big impact on the match, with three-time Premiership player- Jack Gunton kicking 5 goals and taking 8 marks for the match.

Nick Watson continues to improve year on year, kicking 4 goals from 17 disposals and being involved in 11 scores.

Connor MacDonald has taken on increased responsibilities and picking up 24 disposals, 7 inside 50s, 12 score involvements and kicked 2 goals.

 

WB V GWS
MARCUS BONTEMPELLI 3
AARON NAUGHTON 2
TOM LIBERATORE 1

 

Marcus Bontempelli continues to prove himself as one of the very best players in the competition, despite falling short of a Brownlow Medal on multiple occasions. The Bont was at his scintillating best with 33 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 11 inside 50s (all game highs) to go with 3 brilliant goals.

Aaron Naughton was the focal point up forward, kicking 6 goals and taking 11 marks, with 10 of his 15 disposals leading to scores.

Tom Liberatore was important at the coal-face with 29 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal and a game high- 12 score involvements.

 

GEEL V FRE
MAX HOLMES 2
BAILEY SMITH 2
SHANNON NEALE 1
LUKE JACKSON 1

 

Geelong revived their season after falling flat in their opening game and conceding eight goals in the first term this week. Max Holmes and Bailey Smith were back to their 2025 form that helped the Cats get to a Grand Final.

Holmes was the most prolific player on the ground with 32 disposals, also having 11 contested, 8 tackles, 7 inside 50s and 10 score involvements. Meanwhile, Smith had 31 disposals, 7 marks, a game high- 673 meters gained and kicked a goal.

Shannon Neale kicked an equal career high- 5 goals against a usually strong Fremantle defence.

Fremantle weapon- Luke Jackson- proved he will be a handful this season with a new role roaming the midfield as well as the ruck, collecting 27 disposals, a game high- 18 contested possessions and 10 clearances, as well as 22 hitouts and a goal.

 

SYD V BL
JOEL AMARTEY 3
ERROL GULDEN 1.5
TOM MCCARTIN 1.5

 

Joel Amartey was the main man in the Swans attack despite boasting a two-time Coleman Medallist in the same forward line. Amartey booted 5 goals and took 8 marks for the match.

Errol Gulden was one of the most impactful players on the ground in limited game time due to injury. In just 65% of game time, Gulden had 20 disposals at 85% efficiency, 7 score involvements, 8 tackles and a goal.

Sydney full-back Tom McCartin had a career best- 27 disposals which was the second most of any Swan on the ground. McCartin used the ball at 85% efficiency and had an equal game high- 10 intercept possessions.

 

COLL V ADE
NICK DAICOS 2
WAYNE MILERA 2
RILEY THILTHORPE 1
ALEX NEALE – BULLEN 1

 

Nick Daicos has started the season on fire with predicted votes in the opening two matches. He was the Magpies best performer in a two-goal loss with 33 disposals, 10 inside 50s, 790 meters gained and kicking 2 goals.

Wayne Milera was eye-catching with a game high- 34 disposals and using the ball at 94% efficiency, making 673 meters gained and being involved in 8 scores.

All-Australian forward- Riley Thilthorpe picked up 15 disposals, 6 inside 50s, took 7 marks and kicked 3 goals. Whist Alex Neale- Bullen continues to be a handy pick up over the last 12 months with 26 disposals, 6 inside 50s, a game high- 12 score involvements and kicking a goal.

 

NM V PORT
DYLAN STEPHENS 2.5
HARRY SHEEZEL 2.5
LUKE PARKER 1

 

Dylan Stephens had arguably the best game of his career in what could be a breakout season, leading all players for meters gained (536) and score involvements (9) as well as kicking a classy goal from his 29 disposals.

Harry Sheezel was the most prolific player on the ground with 31 disposals, taking 8 marks and having 8 score involvements in the Kangaroos rare win.

Former Swan- Luke Parker was important through the midfield with 24 disposals and using the ball at 100% efficiency as well as taking 8 marks and kicking a goal.

 

MEL V STK
MAX GAWN 3
JACOB VAN ROOYEN 2
MAX HALL 1

 

This generations greatest ruckman- Max Gawn- has proved that he is still the benchmark in the competition. The Melbourne captain dragged his side over the line with 22 disposals, 13 contested possessions, 8 score involvements, 36 hitouts and a goal as arguably the best player on the ground.

We may have witnessed a coming-of-age game for Jacob Van Rooyen, who after an ordinary 2025 season, came out of the blocks in 2026 with six goals.

Max Hall was one of the best performed St Kilda players with 26 disposals, 6 clearances, 8 inside 50s, 13 score involvements and kicking 4 goals in a tightly contested loss.

 

GCS V WCE
CHRISTIAN PETRACCA 3
NOAH ANDERSON 2
JARROD WITTS 1

 

Christian Petracca couldn’t have asked for a better start to his season in Suns colours, backing up his 3-vote performance in Opening Round with 23 disposals, 12 contested possessions, 8 inside 50s, 14 score involvements, 537 meters gained and 4 goals in what should be another 3 votes!

Noah Anderson was the most prolific player on the ground with 34 disposals, having 12 contested, 11 score involvements and kicking a goal of his own.

Jarrod Witts made an impact in the ruck with 20 disposals, a game high- 16 contested possessions, 7 clearances and 51 hitouts as well as a goal.

ROUND 0

SYD V CARL

JUSTIN MCINERNEY

3

ERROL GULDEN

2

BRODIE GRUNDY

1

The Swans took a half of footy to kick into gear and play their traditional style of game, led by elite runners- Justin McInerney and Errol Gulden. McInerney played a career best game with a team high- 31 disposals, game high- 14 score involvements to go with 461 meters gained, 6 inside 50s and 3 goals!

Errol Gulden proved himself as one of the game’s best players, finishing with 27 disposals, 11 tackles, 8 inside 50s, 10 score involvements and picking up 12 possessions in the crucial third term when the Swans were able to establish a massive lead.

Brodie Grundy’s work in the ruck made an impact with 16 disposals, 46 hitouts, 7 score involvements and 1 goal.

GCS V GEEL

CHRISTIAN PETRACCA

3

TOUK MILLER

2

BAILEY HUMPHREY

1

Christian Petracca couldn’t have scripted his Suns debut any better, with a clear best on ground performance and proving his best footy is still ahead of him. The four-time All- Australian led the Suns with 34 disposals, 15 contested possessions, 6 clearances, 10 inside 50s, 678 meters gained and most importantly kicking 3 goals and using the ball at 82% efficiency. Already pushed himself into the top handful of Brownlow favourites.

Touk Miller played an important role in the Suns 56-point victory with 30 disposals, 11 contested possessions, 6 tackles and kicking a goal.

Dynamic forward Bailey Humphrey had a major impact on the result of the game, with three first quarter goals from six disposals to set up a strong lead that the Cats couldn’t come back from. Humphrey finished with 4 goals from 15 disposals.

GWS V HAW

JAKE STRINGER

3

FINN CALLAGHAN

1.5

CLAYTON OLIVER

1.5

GWS walked away with the four points despite the injury woes and coming into the game as underdogs, largely thanks to Jake Stringer’s impact forward of centre. The Hawks didn’t have a matchup for the All-Australian as he kicked five goals from 14 disposals and was involved in a game high- 11 scores.

The Giants midfield dominated the Will Day-less Hawks, with Clayton Oliver proving his worth as a handy pick up during the off season. Oliver was the leading contested possession and clearance player on the ground with 19 and 10 respectively, also finishing with 26 disposals and kicking a goal.

Finn Callaghan picked up where he left off last season with 26 disposals, – the equal second most on the ground- 9 inside 50s and 735 meters gained- both the most on the ground.

BL V WB

ED RICHARDS

3

LACHIE NEALE

1

MARCUS BONTEMPELLI

1

CHARLIE CAMERON

1

In what could eventually be the best game of whole 2026 season, the Lions and Bulldogs are sharing the votes in a tightly contested battle.

Ed Richards walked away with best on ground honours, with the Bulldogs Best and Fairest picking up 30 disposals, 10 inside 50s, 7 clearances, 726 meters gained and 16 score involvements including 2 goals of his own in the winning side.

Lachie Neale continues to be the dominant midfielder in a stacked Lions lineup, collecting a game high- 39 disposals, 15 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

Marcus Bontempelli may not have been the midfield maestro he usually is, but made a heavy impact in the forward half with 3 goals, 8 score involvements and 422 meters gained from 19 disposals and always attracts umpire attention.

After saving his best game for last year’s Grand Final, Charlie Cameron started 2026 with a bang- kicking four goals from 15 disposals and taking 7 marks.

STK V COLL

NICK DAICOS

3

JOSH DAICOS

1.5

JACK SINCLAIR

1.5

Nick Daicos was allowed to run around unopposed, picking up a game high- 41 disposals, 844 meters gained and 11 score involvements as the most likely to be best on ground. Is correctly rated as the Brownlow Medal favourite after finishing third, second and second in the last three seasons.

Josh Daicos was given plenty of space as well and made the most of his opportunities with 36 disposals at 80% efficiency, taking 13 marks and being involved in 8 scores.

Newly appointed Saints co-captain- Jack Sinclair was their best player on the ground in a 12-point loss, collecting 35 disposals at 94% efficiency, having 7 intercept possessions and making 560 meters in a composed performance.

BETFAIR’S BROWNLOW MEDAL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The Brownlow Medal is the AFL’s most prestigious individual prize. The medal, known formally as the Charles Brownlow Trophy, was first presented in 1924, in honour of the former Geelong player and club and league administrator. The Brownlow medallist is recognised as the League’s fairest and best player, as judged by the umpires.

In recent years, the Brownlow Medal count has attracted significant interest as a major event on footy’s social calendar, while also continuing to draw massive patronage from bettors. With wagering interest in the Brownlow skyrocketing, punters are increasingly looking for accurate and updated information and insights to help shape their Brownlow tipping strategies.

Betfair’s unique Brownlow Medal predictor provides expert analysis for each of the 207 AFL home-and-away matches played during the 2024 season including a list of players it predicts will likely have earned the umpires’ votes.

Under the current Brownlow Medal voting system, the three field umpires confer after each game and award six votes to the three players considered the fairest and best, on a 3-2-1 basis. However, under the innovative system that underpins Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor, more than three players per match can be identified as predicted vote-winners, ‘earning’ a minimum of 0.5 votes and a maximum of 3 from a six-tier voting scale. Betfair’s data scientists and betting analysts believe this broader vote allocation system better captures more players’ valuable or outstanding performances while simultaneously lessening the impact of the narrow 3-2-1 system than can, by its nature, ignore impactful players who might not necessarily have caught the umpires’ attention, particularly in games dominated by one or two individuals.

After each round, a leaderboard showing how many votes Betfair’s Brownlow predictor tips players to receive is updated, with individual Brownlow Medal market odds on the Betfair Exchange adjusted accordingly. This ‘live’ feature enables punters to stay updated with predicted player movement up and down the leaderboard, providing them with ample opportunity to adjust their Brownlow wagering strategies throughout the course of the AFL season.

Under contemporary Brownlow rules, multiple winners are declared when two or more players finish with the same number of votes. In 2003, for example, Adelaide’s Mark Ricciuto, Collingwood’s Nathan Buckley and Sydney’s Adam Goodes each polled 22 votes and were declared Brownlow medallists. This element of the award broadens punters’ options and allows for more intricate wagering strategies, particularly when using Betfair’s AFL Brownlow predictor as a guide. It’s also worth noting that although players who have been suspended for on-field indiscretions during a season can still receive votes for their performances, they are ineligible to win that year’s Brownlow Medal.

Importantly, as part of Betfair’s approach of putting bettors first by giving them multiple options to capitalise on their investments, punters can choose to back or lay any player as part of their Brownlow wagering considerations.

As Australia’s largest betting exchange, Betfair continues to broaden its wagering options and expand the cutting-edge information, expert analysis and data it offers punters who are keen to extract maximum value when investing. To take advantage of tools including the innovative Brownlow Medal predictor, sign up to Betfair today and start realising the benefits.

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