We’re proud to present you with a 2016 Brownlow predictor. Associate Professor Michael Bailey has worked as a biostatistician for 20 years and has published over 400 manuscripts in peer reviewed medical journals that have been cited more than 14,000 times.
In 2005 he completed a PhD which outlined a statistical approach to predicting sporting outcomes and with a specific chapter dedicated to the Brownlow, he is the only known person to be awarded a PhD for the prediction of the Brownlow Medal winner.
Betfair has once again partnered with Associate Professor Michael Bailey to build a prediction model for the 2016 Brownlow Medal. The statistician known as ‘The Professor’ has this year’s Brownlow winner likely to be Patrick Dangerfield, with Dustin Martin and Dan Hannebery rounding out the top-3.
Dangerfield has an excellent track record on Brownlow night having polled at least 20 votes in each of the past four seasons.Prior to 2016, he had polled 97 Brownlow votes from 147 home and away matches for an average of 0.66 votes per game placing him in the top 10 current players. With 23 3-votes, 11 2-votes and only 6 1-votes, he has a remarkable ability to be rated by the umpires as the most influential player on the ground.
With a predicted total of 35 and his nearest rival 12 votes adrift, Dangerfield is given an 89% chance of winning, meaning his current price of $1.26 still represents value for punters that are prepared to take the short price.