Your Expert AFL Tips for 2020

The Analysts have years of AFL betting experience to go along with their own database. They’ll be posting their AFL Tips each week for the entire 2020 AFL Season. There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections.

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Richmond v Geelong

Richmond defeated Geelong just once between 2001 and the 2017 finals but since then the Tigers have gone on to win two premierships and over that run and have defeated the Cats in five of six. Among those wins were a 51-point victory in the 2017 qualifying final and a 19-point triumph in last year’s preliminary final. The Tigers were comfortable winners when the teams met in Round 17.

Richmond go into this with a major advantage over the Cats and should be able to keep the upper hand off a highly impressive preliminary finals win against Port. The Tigers have won eight of nine with seven of those by double digits. The Cats cover at just 41% off a win of 40-plus. The Tigers project as significant value in this one as a favourite of anything short of 9.5 points.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Richmond -3.5


NORM SMITH

For those tackling this market, we’ll chase some value on both sides.

On the Geelong front, we love Cam Guthrie. He’s had a remarkable season and that was reflected by his inclusion in the All-Australian side. This bodes well given the winner of this award is also selected by industry personnel.

Guthrie polled three votes on four occasions on Brownlow Night and enters the Grand Final averaging the most disposals of any player from both sides. I’m expecting the Tigers to have a plan in place to slow down Patrick Dangerfield, whilst Guthrie should be able to get his usual ball out wide and through the midfield.

He’ll likely rely on Geelong coming out winners on the day, but at $26, he presents great value.

If you like Richmond to win it, the obvious selection here is Dusty. If the Tigers are winning their 3rd Flag in 4 years, he is playing a big part in it. He is one where even if he doesn’t play amazing, he’ll attract the eyes of the voting panel as we saw last year. But he’s very short and not one you can pile in too.

Shai Bolton looks the value pick. He’s in very good form, slick conditions will suit him to find plenty of the ball, he can sneak forward to impact the scoreboard and in what is shaping up to be a tug of war, he could be the difference. He looks great odds at almost $30 on the Exchange.

Brisbane v Geelong

Geelong are always a play as an underdog. They cover at 61% when an outsider dating back to 2012. That bumps up to 67% when an underdog off conceding 40 or fewer. The Cats travel well and their experience will hold them in good stead here.

The Cats have covered 10 of 12 against the Lions and thumped them when they met earlier in the year. Few teams are better prepared for a game of this magnitude. The Cats were magnificent against the Magpies in what was a genuine flag performance.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Geelong +4.5


Port Adelaide v Richmond

Port Adelaide get the benefit of a home ground prelim and that is significant against the defending premiers. They have won seven straight at the Adelaide Oval and have really made their base a fortress. All-time, though, the Power are just 51-32 with a -16% POT but that has turned around in 2020.

More notably, however, is Richmond’s horrid record at the ground with just two wins in their last 10 at the venue. Port blasted the Tigers by 21 points when the teams met in Round 11 and the Tigers have a shocking record as an underdog with just four covers in their last 11.

Port have covered 10 of their last 14 off winning by two-plus goals. This is all lining up for a Power win.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Port Adelaide -1.5

Geelong v Collingwood

There was plenty of chatter last week that “nobody” thought Collingwood could win against West Coast. The Magpies have somehow managed to cast themselves as a major underdog. Betting, of course, does not reflect this but taking odds against and/or any plus is absolutely a play in this semi against the Cats.

Collingwood have covered nine of the last 13 against Geelong and with the last 10 going under the total, the plus is a play in a projected low-scorer. Collingwood have covered 11 of 15 as an underdog and cover at 58% as an underdog since 2012.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Collingwood +5.5


Richmond v St Kilda

St Kilda have performed very well against Richmond in recent years with six covers in their last nine. The Saints won just two of those but they roundly thumped the Tigers when the teams met this season.

The Tigers have failed to cover their last four when favoured by more than three goals. The Saints have covered eight of 12 as an underdog. The four finals last week were all decided by fewer than three goals and this one should be too.

Betting Strategy

BACK — St Kilda +18.5

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

This game is a clear play-against the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs cover at just 41% when favoured. They have also dropped the last two against Saints with St Kilda covering 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Saints have covered seven of their last nine when an outsider.

Betting Strategy

BACK — St Kilda +3.5


West Coast v Collingwood

West Coast are normally highly reliable as a big home favourite but Collingwood are the play in this one. The Magpies have an outstanding record as a big outsider, going 27-11 against the spread since 2012 when getting more than two goals.

West Coast have fallen to 5-5 against the number at Optus when favoured by more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Collingwood +13.5


Port Adelaide v Geelong

The Cats are the clear play here. They are an excellent 32-20 against the spread when $1.85 or longer in betting so they tend to play well in hard matchups and when their backs are against the wall.

Port have covered just 4 of their last 11 when favoured and will be feeling the pressure as they play just their second finals campaign since 2014. Experience should shine here.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Geelong +1.5

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Fremantle have looked vastly improved and that has culminated in back-to-back wins. The Dockers have a good cover record off a big win, making the nut at 59% when off a 60-plus win.

The Bulldogs are a major take-on team when favoured. They have covered at just 41% when favoured by the market and at just 37% when favoured by more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Fremantle +12.5


Brisbane v Carlton

We welcome back an old favourite this week as we steam into Carlton getting a big plus. The Blues cover at a clip of 63% when an outsider of four goals or more. When the Blues are an underdog of more than four goals off a loss they make the nut at a remarkable 73%.

The Lions are streaking and are a very hard beat this year but the resilient Blues are in a spot too good to pass up.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Carlton +25.5


North Melbourne v West Coast

West Coast need to win to be any hope of finishing inside the Top 4 and getting two bites at the cherry so look to be in a smash spot here against a Kangaroos team who could claim the wooden spoon.

The Shinboners have been in freefall of late and come into this off a 64-point loss to Fremantle. They have lost six of their last seven by 30. West Coast are 29-15 against the spread since 2012 when favoured by more than five goals so they have a ruthless bully streak that will serve them well here.

Betting Strategy

BACK — West Coast -38.5

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

The Western Bulldogs are in a huge lay spot here. They cover at just 41% when favoured and just 37% when favoured by double digits.

Hawthorn have covered four of the last six against the Bulldogs and cover at a very strong 65% when an underdog of more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Hawthorn +17.5


North Melbourne v Fremantle

North Melbourne have lost their last three and five of their last six by 30-plus points. Fremantle cover at 57% when favoured.

The Dockers are in a great spot here and are far too tough for a North team that have packed it in.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Fremantle -10.5


Port Adelaide v Essendon

Essendon have an excellent record against Port Adelaide with seven covers in their last nine meetings. The Bombers are also super reliable as an underdog. They have covered at 61% when an underdog of more than three goals.

Port Adelaide have covered just two of their last 13 when favoured by more than four goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Essendon +28.5

Melbourne v Fremantle

Fremantle have covered eight of 11 against Melbourne and matchup well. The Dockers come off pushing Richmond while the Dees were humiliated by the Swans. Melbourne cover at just 44% when favoured. It is hard to lay points with the Dees after their most recent diabolical effort.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Fremantle +4.5


Western Bulldogs v West Coast

The Bulldogs cover at just 45% off a loss. West Coast have covered an incredible 13 of their last 15 when favoured by fewer than two goals so are clearly in a good spot in this one. The Eagles have also won five on the hop against the Bulldogs, covering their last four with the last three wins all coming by 50-plus.

Betting Strategy

BACK — West Coast -7.5


North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

North Melbourne have a tremendous record as a big outsider. Getting more than four goals the Roos cover at 61%. Underdogs of more than four goals off a loss of 40-plus points cover at a very good 56%. Port have covered just one of their last six when favoured by more than five goals. North can scrap and keep this close.

Betting Strategy

BACK — North Melbourne +32.5

Sydney v Melbourne

Melbourne has become an exceptional betting proposition of late. They have covered seven of their last nine and have downed two Top 8 teams in the last three weeks. Sydney has lost four of their last five and are entrenched in the bottom four. Melbourne should do a job on the poor Swans.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Melbourne -16.5


GWS v Carlton

Carlton has a tremendous cover rate as a big outsider, making the number at a clip of 58% when an underdog of 10 or more points. Off a loss of more than four goals as a double-digit underdog, the Blues cover rate jumps to a highly impressive 66%. GWS has covered just three of nine as a double-digit favourite.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Carlton +10.5


Hawthorn v Adelaide

The Crows have just a single cover all season and are a bet against team the entire way through. They are winless and are historically poor defensively. The Hawks have won 10 of 11 against the Crows and covered six of the last eight. The Crows have covered just two of 13 getting more than two goals. The Hawks all the way.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Hawthorn -15.5

Melbourne v St Kilda

Saturday 29th August, 7:40pm

St Kilda have covered just six of their last 17 when favoured so the Demons look the play in this one. The Demons have covered six of their last nine off a loss of 24 or more and they have covered three of their last four interstate.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Melbourne +2.5


Western Bulldogs v Geelong

Friday 28th August, 7:50pm

The Cats are in a good spot here. Geelong have covered 9 of their last 12 when favoured by fewer than two goals. Geelong have also won their last four by 28-plus points and have covered four of their last six against the Bulldogs.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Geelong -9.5


Hawthorn v Essendon

Thursday 27th August, 4:40pm

Essendon are the worst favourites in the AFL since 2012 so are in a prime play-against spot. The Bombers have covered at just 37% when the elect in betting. When favoured by more than a goal, the Bombers make the nut at just 32%.

The Hawks cover at 53% when an underdog and they have covered six of nine against Essendon.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Hawthorn +6.5

Collingwood v North Melbourne

Monday 24th August, 7:10pm

North will be up and about after nearly rolling the high-flying Lions last week. Collingwood have lost three of their last five with their two wins against the struggling Swans and the hapless Crows.

The Magpies cover at just 43% when favoured and just 38% when favoured by more than two goals. North have covered 12 of 18 when an underdog of more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – North Melbourne +15.5


Adelaide v Geelong

Sunday 23rd August, 1:05pm

The winless Crows have remarkably covered just 1 of their last 12 games this year. They are losing by an average margin of nearly 40 points. They got thumped by 57 last week by the Bulldogs and they have lost three of their last four by 50-plus points.

The Cats are 8-4 against the spread this season and come off three straight wins of 33-plus. This is going to get messy.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong -33.5


West Coast v GWS

Sunday 23rd August, 6:10pm

West Coast are highly reliable as a big favourite in Perth. They cover at 63% when favoured by more than two goals in WA. They have covered six of their last seven. West Coast have covered 11 of 16 off a win of 30-plus.

GWS were embarrassed by the Swans and the Eagles have covered 8 of the last 10 against the Giants.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -18.5

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

Sunday 16th August, 1:05pm

The Crows are an absolute mess at present. They are winless in 11 games. They have covered the start just once this year. They have not broken 60 points since Round 1. They have conceded 129 more points than the next worst defensive side.

The Bulldogs have lost their last three but they were against the top two teams and the defending premiers. This could get ugly.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Western Bulldogs -34.5


West Coast v Hawthorn

Sunday 16th August, 6:10pm

This is a magnificent spot for West Coast, who have a remarkable record as a big favourite in Perth. The Eagles cover at 63% when favoured by more than two goals and 69% when favoured by more than four goals.

The Hawks have just a single win in their last six and were exceptionally poor against Freo.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -27.5


Geelong v Port Adelaide

Friday 14th August, 7:50pm

Geelong are always a good bet as an underdog so look an outstanding play here. The Cats cover at 59% when an outsider and have covered 10 of their last 15. As an interstate underdog, Geelong cover at 71%.

The Cats have won 8 of their last 10 against Port and can continue that strong run this week.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong +4.5

Port Adelaide v Richmond

Saturday 8th August, 4:35pm

Richmond have covered three of their last four against Port Adelaide and have covered six of their last seven off a win so look to be in a prime spot.

Port have covered just five of their last 18 off a win of two or more goals. The Tigers are starting to get hot and can be ridden here.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Richmond -2.5


West Coast v Carlton

Sunday 9th August, 3:35pm

West Coast have an outstanding record in Perth when heavily favoured. They cover at a clip of 62% when favoured by more than two goals and 64% when favoured by three goals. The Eagles beat the Blues by 24 when they last met.

The Blues have a shocking record interstate, covering just 38% after travelling outside of Victoria.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -19.5


Melbourne v North Melbourne

Sunday 9th August, 6:10pm

This looks a great spot for the Shinboners here. North cover at 59% when an underdog of more than a goal. Off a loss of more than three goals, that position bumps to 65%.

Melbourne cover at just 42% as a favourite and gave covered just three of their last 10 in the spot.

Betting Strategy

BACK – North Melbourne +10.5

Essendon v GWS

Friday 7th August, 7:50pm

GWS have a nice record against Essendon and can record a big win this week when the teams meet at Metricon. The Giants have won four of the last five meetings and have covered six of nine against the Bombers dating back to 2012.

Essendon’s only won in their last three was an unconvincing one against Adelaide. GWS have won their last two and four of their last six.

Betting Strategy

BACK – GWS -14.5


Adelaide v Melbourne

Wednesday 5th August, 8:10pm

The lowly Crows are just a pure bet against team this year. They have failed to win any of their first nine games. They have covered just one. They have a lowly percentage of 56.7.

Melbourne are 3-5 but have won two of their last four. The Demons have covered seven of their last eight against the Crows and the Demons have covered four of their last six off a loss of 30-plus.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Melbourne -14.5


Collingwood v Sydney

Thursday 6th August, 5:40pm

Collingwood will be looking to bounce back after a very disappointing loss following their coach being caught in a biosecurity breach that has rocked the club. They will be looking to put that disappointing loss behind them in a very winnable affair against the Swans.

The Magpies have covered five of the last seven against the Swans and have covered 12 of 18 off a loss. The Swans have won just 1 of their last 6 with four losses of 28-plus in that run.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Collingwood -16.5

St Kilda v Sydney

Saturday 1st August, 5:10pm

The Saints are poor favourites. They cover at just 43% when the elect in betting and at a poor 39% when favoured by double digits. When favoured by 10 or more points off a win the Saints have covered just 3 of 13. The Swans have covered 11 of their last 16 as an underdog and seven of nine getting double digits.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sydney +13.5


Carlton v Hawthorn

Friday 31st July, 5:40pm

Carlton have historically played Hawthorn well from a betting perspective with six covers in their last eight meetings and are playing in notably better form than a Hawthorn outfit that have put their most successful ever coach under pressure.

The Blues have covered three straight and have made the nut in seven of their last nine night games. The Hawks have failed to cover their last five as an underdog. They have not covered in six of their last seven.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton -10.5


Essendon v Brisbane

Friday 31st July, 8:10pm

Essendon are highly reliable plays as an underdog. The Bombers cover at 63% when getting more than two goals while they are 16-8 against the spread getting more than two goals off a win. Brisbane have lost just twice this year but have failed to cover their last three against the Bombers.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Essendon +15.5

Fremantle v Geelong

Mon 27th Jul, 8:10pm

The Dockers play the Cats particularly well from a betting perspective and look an outstanding bet with the game being played in WA. Fremantle have covered 9 of the last 12 meetings with Geelong including three of the last four in Perth. Geelong cover at just 41% when favoured by 10 or more points. The Dockers have just two losses this year by more than 13 points.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Fremantle +10.5


West Coast v Collingwood

Sun 26th Jul, 3:35pm

Very keen on the Eagles now they are back playing in Perth. They were super in annihilating the Dockers by five goals last week. They have now won three on the trot with all three wins coming by more than five goals. West Coast have a tremendous record against Collingwood with seven covers in the last 10 meetings, they are a standout play.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -5.5


Sydney v Hawthorn

Sat 14th Jul, 3:35pm

It is incredibly difficult to come into Hawthorn here as favourites. The Hawks have dropped all three since shifting to Sydney with all losses coming by 32-plus. Sydney have struggled this year with three losses at the SCG but those losses have all come to teams with a winning record. The Swans won both games against teams with a losing record.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sydney +6.5

Carlton v Port Adelaide

Sun 19th Jul, 1:05pm

The Carlton plus a play … who would have thought. The Blues cover at 58% as a double digit outsider and have covered six of their last nine off a win. The Blues have covered four of the last five against Port with three straight wins. Port have covered just six of 18 off a win of three of more goals. Carlton can be bet with confidence again.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +15.5


Geelong v Collingwood

Thu 16th Jul, 8:10pm

The Cats are a tremendous bet as an outsider this week … again. This match, naturally, takes place in WA. Geelong make the nut at a rate of 61% as an underdog since 2012, while they have covered 10 of 14 as an interstate outsider so travel poses no issue. Collingwood are poor favourites, covering at just 43% when starting odds-on. As a favourite off a win of five or more goals the Magpies are 12-22 ATS. Geelong should be favoured in this one.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong +4.5


Richmond v North Melbourne

Sat 18th Jul, 7:40pm

Richmond have a horrendous record against North Melbourne and the thinking is history will repeat itself again here. The Roos have won seven of the last 10 meetings with eight covers over that run including the last two meetings. North cover at a clip of 60% when an outsider of more than a goal.

Betting Strategy

BACK – North Melbourne +15.5

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

Sunday July 12th, 6:45pm

Carlton cover at 58% when a double-digit underdog and look in a good spot again against the Western Bulldogs. The Blues cover at 64% when a double-digit outsider off a loss of three or more goals. The Bulldogs cover at just 41% as a favourite and have made the nut in just 5 of their last 17 when favoured. The Blues are the bet … again.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +11.5


Geelong v Brisbane

Thursday July 9th, 7:40pm

The Cats take on the Lions this week … at the SCG. Such is 2020. More than happy to take the Cats as an underdog. They have covered at 60% as an outsider since 2012. As an interstate outsider, the Cats have covered 9 of 13 as an interstate underdog so they travel well. The Lions have covered just 1 of their last 5 as an interstate favourite and they have a poor 36% cover rate in night games.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong +5.5


West Coast v Adelaide

Saturday July 11th, 3:05pm

Adelaide are a complete and utter mess. They are winless and without a cover in five games this year. They have not lobbed within 20 points in their last four. West Coast seemed to have stemmed the bleeding this year with an impressive 34-point win over the Swans. The Eagles are 28-15 against the line when favoured by five goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -30.5

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Saturday July 4th, 7:40pm

The Western Bulldogs are poor favourites, covering at just 41% when the popular elect. In their last 17 when favoured in betting, the Bulldogs have covered just five. The Kangaroos are in the opposite boat. They cover at 60% when getting more than a goal and 62% when an underdog of more than a goal in Victoria.

Betting Strategy

BACK – North Melbourne +6.5


Collingwood v Essendon

Friday July 3rd, 7:50pm

Essendon have an outstanding cover record against Collingwood. They have covered nine of 15 against the Magpies including both matches last season. The Bombers have covered five of their last seven as an underdog and cover at 62% when an outsider of more than two goals, a clear indication the market usually gets them wrong. Collingwood cover at just 39% when favoured by more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Essendon +17.5


Carlton v St Kilda

Thursday July 2nd, 7:40pm

Carlton getting a start is nearly always a bet and so it is here against St Kilda. The Blues cover at 58% as an underdog and at 61% as an underdog in Melbourne. The Blues have covered two straight against the Saints and seven of the last 10. St Kilda are awful favourites, covering at just 42% and making the nut in just 1 of their last 8 when favoured in betting.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +8.5

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Sunday June 28th, 6:05pm

North Melbourne is 47-31 ATS as an underdog or more than a goal since 2012 and are perennially underrated by the market. At Marvel Stadium in the spot they cover at a remarkable 74%. Hawthorn has covered just two of their last seven as a favourite off a win. Good spot for the Roos here.

Betting Strategy

BACK – North Melbourne +7.5


Sydney v Western Bulldogs

Thursday June 25th, 7:40pm

The Swans are tremendous plays as outsiders in this spot. They have covered 10 of their last 12 as an underdog including twice this season. Off a win as an underdog, the Swans are 17-9 against the spread since 2012. The Bulldogs are poor favourites, covering at just 41%. The Bulldogs have covered just two of their last 12 interstate games. Happy to stick with the reliable Swans here.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Swans +3.5


GWS v Collingwood

Friday June 26th, 7:50pm

Collingwood is good travelers and that puts them in a nice spot on the road to a GWS team that is flailing since the season resumption. The Magpies are 22-11 against the spread interstate and were arguably the most impressive team of Round 3. The Giants have been hit hard by injury. Collingwood has covered six of nine against GWS.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Pies -6.5

Geelong v Carlton

Saturday June 20th, 7:40pm

Carlton getting a big plus is always welcome as it is typically tremendous value. That is no exception this week. The Blues were typically their gritty best late on in a one-point loss to Melbourne last week. Carlton cover at 62% when getting more than three goals start. In Victoria, Carlton cover at 70% when getting a handicap of 24.5 or larger. Since 2012 the Cats cover at just 37% when favoured by four-plus goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +28.5


North Melbourne v Sydney

Saturday 20th June, 1:45pm

The Swans have historically been very good travellers and that is cranked up when they are an underdog with the Swans covering at 60% as a travelling outsider. The Swans have also covered six of their last nine off a loss. North are poor favourites, covering just six of 18 when the elect by more than a goal. The Swans strike as tremendous value here.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sydney +9.5


Richmond v Hawthorn

Thursday June 18th, 7:40pm

Richmond have covered four straight against Hawthorn and look to be in a good spot to make it five. There was nothing pretty about their return draw with Colingwood, though that matchup is significantly more difficult than Hawthorn. The Tigers have won 17 of their last 18 at the MCG when favoured by more than two goals including six of their last seven. Hawthorn have covered just six of 16 as an underdog.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Richmond -14.5

Carlton v Melbourne

Saturday June 13th, 4:35pm

Carlton are in a great spot as an underdog in Melbourne against the Demons. The Blues cover at a stunning 61% in Victoria when an underdog. As a double-digit underdog in Melbourne the Blues have covered 10 of their last 16. The Demons have covered just five of their last 18 in Victoria and went a poor 1-6 against the spread in 2019 when favoured by the market.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +10.5


Geelong v Hawthorn

Friday 12th June, 7:50pm

Geelong are typically very hard to beat when playing at the Cattery and that advantage is sure to be heightened in this muddled-up season with a short preparation. Geelong have covered 10 of their last 14 at their home ground and cover at 60% at the ground when favoured by fewer than three goals. The Hawks have covered just six of their last 15 as an underdog.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Geelong -10.5


Richmond v Collingwood

Thursday June 11th, 7:50pm

Collingwood are always reliable plays when getting more than a goal. They have covered 60% getting a start of 6.5 or more since 2011. They have covered 11 of their last 15 at the MCG when an outsider of more than a goal. Richmond have covered just nine of 19 at the MCG. Collingwood have covered two of their last three against Richmond and in a cracking matchup to restart the season can win a close affair against the defending premiers.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Collingwood +7.5

West Coast v Melbourne

Sunday March 22nd, 6:40pm

West Coast is a highly reliable betting proposition as a big home favourite in Perth so more than happy to take the Eagles. West Coast is 33-19 against the spread when favoured by three or more goals in WA.

The benefit of not having to fly in these dangerous times only boosts confidence. Melbourne have covered just 3 of 11 night/twilight games.

Betting Strategy

BACK – West Coast -19.5

Richmond v Carlton


Thursday March 19th, 7:25pm

Carlton is always a play in Victoria as a big underdog. Since 2012, the Blues have covered at an incredible 68% when getting three or more goals in Melbourne. At the MCG they are in insane 26-5 against the line when bookies are handing out a start of 18.5 or more.

Carlton has covered the three meetings against the Tigers over the last two seasons and is a prime bet to cover the big number again with a win off the stick unsurprising over the defending premiers.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +19.5


Essendon v Fremantle

Saturday March 21st, 1:45pm

Since 2012, Essendon has been the worst favourites in the AFL. The Bombers have been a horrific 28-47 against the spread when favoured, a cover rate of just 37%. When favoured by more than two goals the Bombers have covered just 15 of 51.

Fremantle has covered six of their last nine interstate trips and are 14-8 against the line at Marvel Stadium over the last eight seasons.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Fremantle +15.5


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 61.00

Total Units Returned: 57.28

ROI: -6.11%


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