Your Expert AFL Tips for 2021

The Analysts have years of AFL betting experience to go along with their own database. They’ll be posting their AFL Tips each week for the entire 2021 AFL Season. There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections.

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St Kilda v Carlton

Carlton hardly come into this one in overly convincing form after being roundly smashed by North Melbourne last week but they are a bet here in this spot. The Blues cover at 58% when a double digit underdog but that goes to 61% in Melbourne.

Carlton also cover at a clip of 60% when in Melbourne off a loss and 68% in Melbourne when off a loss of 30-plus. The Saints have covered at a clip of just 41% when favoured by double digits in Melbourne

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +10.5


North Melbourne v Geelong

North Melbourne have been cash money of late and can be trusted again here. The Roos have won three of their last five and have not lost by more than 30 since Round 10.

North have covered seven straight and covered 10 of their last 11. Geelong cover at just 35% when favoured by more than four goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK – North Melbourne +25.5


Collingwood v West Coast

Collingwood are in an absolutely magnificent spot here. The Magpies are an excellent 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 when an underdog of more than 10 points in Melbourne off a loss.

Collingwood have managed just one win in their last five but get a West Coast side that have won just two of their last five themselves. West Coast have covered just 5 of their last 14 at the MCG.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Collingwood +12.5

Port Adelaide v Collingwood

Collingwood are typically an excellent play when an underdog and they are this week. The Pies cover at 57% as an outsider. Collingwood are an excellent 16-8 against the spread when getting more than three goals.

The Power have covered just 2 of 9 off a win of more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Collingwood +21.5


Carlton v North Melbourne

North Melbourne has quickly flipped to become one of the best betting propositions in the AFL as the market continued to underrate them. The Kangaroos have covered six straight and nine of their last 10. North have covered five of their last six against Carlton. The Blues have covered just 6 of 18 when favoured.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Roos +7.5


Brisbane v Gold Coast

Brisbane has covered 12 of 18 against their Queensland rival including the last four. The Lions have covered four of six when a double digit favourite. Brisbane have also won seven of their last nine by more than 23 points. Gold Coast cover at just 41% when a double digit underdog.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Lions -27.5

Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs

Gold Coast have covered just 6 of 15 as a big underdog at Metricon where they are getting at least four goals but they have found some form with back-to-back wins over Richmond and GWS. Gold Coast have covered three of their last four at home off a win. The Bulldogs have covered just 5 of their last 16 when favoured by more than four goals.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Gold Coast +25.5


Richmond v Brisbane

To paraphrase REM, it’s the end of the world as we know it for the Richmond Football Club. Their title defence looks to be in tatters following four straight losses. Their capitulation against Collingwood only confirmed that the magic is gone.

The Tigers have now covered just 5 of 16 games. The Lions had a three-game win streak ended by the Saints last week but they are simply a cut above Richmond. The Lions have covered six of eight at night this year.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Brisbane -12.5


Fremantle v Geelong

Fremantle have a good record against Geelong and can carry that on at Optus on Thursday. The Dockers have covered nine of the last 13 against the Cats with six wins in that span.

Geelong cover at just 45% as a favourite and have covered just 6 of their last 17 went sent out the elect. That falls to 42% when favoured by double digits and 38% when favoured by double digits interstate. Freo have covered 8 of 12 at Optus.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Fremantle +11.5

The AFL season is nearly upon us and there is plenty of value to be found in futures markets.

PREMIERSHIP WINNER

There is no reason to look beyond the obvious. Richmond have won three of the last four flags and look primed for a fourth. Tigerland has become a winning machine and with Damien Hardwick, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin at the helm, that will not change anytime soon.

No team can peak at the right time better than the Tigers. There have been no notable changes to their list and the fact is the AFL is built for dynasties to last. The Tigers are favourites but they still present plenty of value in the premiership market.

If one team can leap from outside the Top 8 to become genuine title contenders it is Melbourne. They have been major disappointments in the last few years but their percentage last year was good enough to match a number of teams in the Top 8.

The addition of key forward Ben Brown gives the Demons some much-needed goalkicking impetus and if the midfield can show just marginal improvement then the Dees can offer plenty in 2021.

BACK — Richmond at $5.20

BACK — Melbourne at $36


MINOR PREMIERS

The Cats come into this season off an impressive Top 4 finish in 2020 and yet another Grand Final appearance. The Cats project to be the biggest Pythagorean improvers in 2021 from inside the Top 8 and they were not far off the minor premiership last season.

They were then uber-aggressive in the trade period, landing Jeremy Cameron as well as Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins. The Cats are talented and deep and look primed for another big season.

BACK — Geelong at $4.90


TOP 4

Success is built on defence and West Coast and the Eagles certainly are building from the defensive side of the ball under Adam Simpson. The Eagles have made the playoffs in six straight seasons and have finals wins in four of those years. Tim Kelly was an outstanding pickup last offseason and the list is well balanced. A little more attacking flair and West Coast are in the top echelon of title contenders.

BACK — West Coast at $3.05


TOP 8

The Blues have long been underrated and can finally emerge with a talented young list. The Blues should have played finals football last year but lost key matches in the back half of the season that cost them dearly with poor periods in games the difference for them. The Blues have a talented young list led by Patrick Cripps and the team has a lot of upside under the astute David Teague.

Collingwood are typically a play-against betting proposition, a terribly overrated public team. They do look to be well on the slide too. The offseason dramas had to have taken some toll, particularly on a coaching staff that had to front up to much of it.

Adam Treloar and Jaidyn Stephenson have been moved on and the list is aging and not gracefully. The Pies finished eighth last season and it is hard to see any improvement coming from a team that has not brought in any AFL-ready talent.

BACK — Carlton at $2.28

LAY — Collingwood at $2.02


Least SEASON WINS

The Bombers were horrendous at the backend of last season and there were few excuses to justify just a single win in their last 10 matches. They are clearly looking to blow things up. John Worsfold has moved on as coach with Ben Rutten taking over.

Veterans Adam Saad, Joe Daniher and Orazio Fantasia are among a host of senior players moving on. The third-worst percentage last year showed that the Bombers’ 13th placing last year well and truly inflated their true showing.

BACK — Essendon at $8.00


COLEMAN MEDAL

One thing you will be sure to get with West Coast big Josh Kennedy is a sight. The two-time Coleman Medal winner has been in the Top 7 nine times in the last decade. The Eagles big man is one of the few players in the AFL still capable of kicking a bag. He is excellent value on a team that will be returning to the finals.

BACK — Josh Kennedy at $10


BROWNLOW MEDAL

The No.1 pick in the 2019 AFL draft certainly delivered for the Gold Coast in a sublime debut season. The crafty midfielder played just five games for the Suns but accumulated nine Brownlow votes and marked himself as an out-and-out star of the future. The Suns are a team on the up and Rowell is their star.

BACK — Matt Rowell at $23


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 57.00

Total Units Returned: 51.35

ROI: -9.91%


Extra Betting Resources

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