Your Expert AFL Tips for 2019

The Analysts have years of AFL betting experience to go along with their own database. They’ll be posting their AFL Tips each week for the entire 2019 AFL Season. There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections.

Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute AFL odds.

Collingwood v Geelong

Geelong have been a highly reliable proposition as an underdog, covering 13 of their last 18 when going in as an outsider. The Cats were an underdog six times last season and covered four. Since 2011, they cover at 59%, the second best record of any outsider in the AFL. Collingwood cover at just 41% as a favourite at the MCG and are just 20-32 against the spread when favoured by more than a goal at the ground.

BACK – Geelong +8.5

Brisbane v West Coast

West Coast are an extremely poor plays when travelling interstate as a favourite. When favoured by three goals or fewer outside of Perth, they are a poor 6-16 against the spread since 2011. Brisbane have covered four of their last six at home getting more than two goals. The Lions are also 13-8 against the line at home when an underdog at night.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane +13.5

Carlton v Richmond

Richmond have won seven straight against Carlton and the two teams are looking at very different realities in 2019 but fancy the Blues can keep this within the monster line. The Tigers have just one win greater than six goals over the Blues since 2007.

Carlton are also absolute money as a big underdog at the MCG, covering 17 of 20 when getting four goals or more at the home of football. Richmond are 8-20 against the line when favoured by 24.5 or more points at the MCG. This is as close as the two teams will be all year so very happy with the six goals and the Blues.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +36.5

AFL Season Preview

The AFL season is nearly upon us and there is plenty of value to be found in futures markets.

Premiership Winner

Expectations are as high as they have been in a generation for the Demons following a stellar 2018 season that saw them finish fourth after 11 straight seasons without finals footy. Having been without a flag since 1964, the club is no doubt trying to keep a lid on it. With one of the most impressive lists led by a midfield that oozes class – and one that has been bolstered by some astute backline recruiting – even the departure of star forward Jesse Hogan won’t worry the Dees.

Each of the last three premiers rose sharply to title success after either a sustained run of outs or floating around the fringe of the finals, so the Demons shouldn’t be discounted in the slightest. The Dees don’t have an easy draw but have the talent to post a Top 4 finish and will be far better for last year’s finals experience.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne to Win the Flag

Top of the Ladder

The Tigers are the standout play in minor premiership betting. Richmond won the flag two years ago before finishing top of the ladder last year. Minor premiers have a strong history of staying at the top for multiple seasons.

Over the last two decades, five teams have gone either back-to-back or three-peated. Of the last five teams to win the minor premiership by eight points or more, three have gone on to win it again the next season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Richmond to Win the Minor Premiership

Top 4 Value

The AFL Top 4 historically doesn’t have a lot of turnover and the best bet is nearly always the defending premier. What is most surprising this year is the price available for West Coast to post a Top 4 finish.

They possess one of the best home ground advantages in the AFL, going 35-9 over the last four regular seasons. They’ve lost none of their core and remain a defensive powerhouse with the right list balance.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast to finish in the Top 4


The Bombers won another off-season. Adding Dylan Shiel to the 2017 acquisition class of Adam Saad, Devon Smith, Jake Stringer. With the natural improvement in Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, and the healthy return of Joe Daniher, you can understand their optimism.

However, their top four case isn’t as strong as Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide, and potentially GWS and Geelong. Of the seven teams mentioned, Essendon has the weakest home ground advantage. We’re also unconvinced that they have the leadership to challenge the competition’s best. They’re simply under the odds to finish in the top 4 during 2019.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Essendon to finish in the Top 4

Top 8 Value

Geelong have played finals football in 13 of the last 15 seasons. As an organisation, there are few more reliable. Yet the Cats are forecast by the market to just miss out in 2019. Geelong have won fewer than 15 regular season games just twice in the Chris Scott era, a remarkable effort over his eight years in charge.

Gary Rohan and Luke Dalhaus have added depth to an already impressive list led by Patrick Dangerfield. The Cats can press for a Top 4 spot.

One thing going against the Cats is their opening seven weeks. They’ll have to play Collingwood, Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon and Adelaide on the road in that opening block and will naturally drift in price if they start poorly. A lay to back strategy seems appropriate here.

Betting Strategy

 LAY TO BACK – Geelong to finish in the Top 8

Wooden Spoon

Taking the shorts about a bet that will take close to seven months to settle but there is only one team who will be taking home the wooden spoon in the AFL this year. The Suns have surprisingly claimed only one wooden spoon but that will be added to in 2019.

They have finished bottom four in each of the last four seasons, including second-last the previous two seasons. The Suns list is about as bad as they come with hardly a single noteworthy player to call on.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Gold Coast to Win the Wooden Spoon

Brownlow Medal

After a breakout 2017 where he polled 21 Brownlow votes to finish fifth and won All-Australian honours, Josh Kelly’s 2018 season never really got going as the weight of expectation seemed to weigh heavily on both him and the Giants.

Kelly has incredible class and is hoping for an injury-free run this year after missing games in 2018. The departure of Tom Scully has Kelly the clear top man and in a contract year he will be looking to impress.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Josh Kelly to Win the Brownlow Medal

Coleman Medal

The departure of Jesse Hogan from the Demons has made Tom McDonald the main man and he ticks a lot of boxes when it comes to looking at him for the Coleman. McDonald booted 53 goals in 20 games for the Dees last year.

He is set to again play for a Top 4 team with the last six winners all coming from teams who finished sixth or higher on the ladder. The Demons kicked more goals than any other team in 2018. At double figures he is very much a bet of high confidence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tom McDonald to Win the Coleman Medal

Rising Star

Nick Blakey was projected to be top 3 for a long time before a few injuries set him back, especially around the Draft Combine. When healthy, he’s shown he can play multiple positions around the ground and have an impact.

He’ll play mainly forward for the Swans and with the main defenders going to Franklin and Reid, he should have a relatively easy time finding his space to lead into. So many key forwards are drafted to be the savior of their forward lines but Blakey has got all the time in the world to develop and that takes a lot of pressure off him.

At $26, with Longmire known to trust his draft picks to play early, he’s a massive price too win it.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Nick Blakey to Win the Rising Star

Extra Betting Resources

If you’re looking to improve your AFL betting, we recommend checking out the following resources as well:

Related Articles

2019 Brownlow Medal Predictor

For your complete guide to the 2019 AFL Brownlow, check out Betfair's Predictor. You'll find assigned votes for every ...

How to Manage Your Own Brownlow Speadsheet

The Brownlow Medal is the biggest punting day on the AFL calendar.

AFL Betting – Products and Resources

At Betfair, we want winners. Aided by a catalogue of information provided in the previous AFL Betting Strategies articles, you have ...