Your Expert AFL Tips for 2019

The Analysts have years of AFL betting experience to go along with their own database. They’ll be posting their AFL Tips each week for the entire 2019 AFL Season. There’s in-depth analysis, betting strategy and reasoning behind each of their selections.

Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute AFL odds.

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 27

Total Units Returned: 32.15

ROI: 19%

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide

Saturday 25 May, 1:45pm

Port Adelaide are typically strong plays as an underdog interstate so are in a good spot against Hawthorn. The Power in their last 29 are 18-11 ATS as an interstate outsider. Hawthorn have covered just one of six as a favourite and favourites off scoring 60 or fewer cover at just 45%. The Hawks have covered just two of eight day games this year.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Port Adelaide +4.5

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Saturday 25 May, 2:10pm

The Western Bulldogs have been poor favourites covering at just 41% when the popular elect. The Dogs have covered just five of their last 18 when favoured by the market and are 14-25 against the line as a favourite at Marvel Stadium since 2012. North Melbourne have covered 20 of 28 as an underdog of a goal or more at Marvel while they have covered 10 of 15 after being held to 80 points or fewer.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – North +6.5

St Kilda v Carlton

Sunday 26 May, 3:20pm

Carlton have served bettors an absolute treat this year and look a good play as an underdog. The Blues cover at 65% when an underdog of 12.5 or more in Victoria while in that situation in day games they are 30-10 against the line. The Saints have covered just 12 of 29 as a favourite of more than two goals and have covered just six of 18 off a loss.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Carlton +17.5

Collingwood v St. Kilda

Saturday 18 May, 1:45pm

Collingwood are in a strong play-against spot as a big favourite. They are 22-36 against the spread when favoured by more than two goals and just 13 of 40 as a favourite in day games. They have covered just six of 22 as a four-goal favourite at the MCG. The Saints have covered seven of nine at the MCG and six of nine day games.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – St Kilda +27.5

GWS v Carlton

Sunday 19 May, 4:40pm

Carlton have been good to punters this year but are in a play against spot. The Blues have covered just four of 13 interstate getting more than four goals and just nine of 29 interstate overall. GWS have covered six of seven in Sydney and they are 26-15 against the line after scoring 60 or fewer points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – GWS -37.5

West Coast v Melbourne

Friday 17 May, 8:10pm

It is impossible to go past West Coast in this spot. The Eagles have covered 31 of 47 when favoured in Perth by more than three goals. They have covered 10 of 16 in Perth off a win of 18 or more. Melbourne have covered just two of seven as a double digit underdog and have covered just four of 13 after scoring 65 or fewer.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast -21.5

North Melbourne v Geelong

Sunday 12th May, 1:10pm

North Melbourne have been extremely reliable in Melbourne as a big outsider covering 18 of 27 when getting a start of 18.5 or more. At Marvel Stadium they are 13-5 against the spread in the spot while they have covered 20 of 27 at the venue getting more than a goal. Geelong have covered just 12 of 28 at Marvel and have covered at just 40% when favoured in Victoria by more than two goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – North Melbourne +20.5

Hawthorn v GWS

Sunday 12th May, 7:50pm

Hawthorn have been highly reliable as an underdog covering at 58% as an outsider including 11 of 18. GWS have covered just 5 of 14 when favoured by more than two goals and have covered just 7 of 18 interstate.

The Hawks are in a desperation spot here after a bad loss to Melbourne so expecting them to lift this week.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Hawthorn +13.5

Carlton v Collingwood

Saturday 11th May, 13:45pm

Bets don’t come any better than Carlton getting a huge start here. The Blues are 42-18 ATS getting 18.5 or more in Melbourne and 7-4 ATS getting 40. Getting 18.5 or more in day games, Carlton are 24-9 ATS while in day games at the MCG they are 15-2 against the line.

Collingwood are 22-32 against the spread in day games at the MCG and have covered just 6 of 21 when favoured by more than five goals including a 0-7 ATS record in day games.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Carlton +46.5

Western Bulldogs v Richmond

Saturday 4th May, 19:25pm

The Tigers have been highly reliable of late, covering nine of 15 when favoured by more than three goals. The Tigers go a treat at Marvel Stadium with six wins in their last nine at the venue and have covered 10 of 15 off a win of 40-plus. The Bulldogs have covered just 6 of 15 as an underdog of three or more goals and just seven of 18 at Marvel Stadium.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Richmond –21.5

West Coast v Gold Coast

Saturday 4th May, 20:10pm

West Coast are money as big favourites in Perth, going 21-7 against the spread when favoured by more than 30 while they are 12-3 against the line laying 40 or more points. The Eagles have covered at a rate of 65% when playing in Perth off a loss of more than five goals. The Suns have covered just seven of 17 interstate games and just six of their last 18 interstate getting a start of more than five goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast -45.5

Collingwood v Port Adelaide

Friday 3rd May, 7:50pm

Collingwood are always a bet against team as a sizable favourite, covering just 37% of games when favoured by more than two goals since 2012 and just 15 of 45 when favoured by more than three goals.

The Magpies have covered just six of their last 24 when favoured by 18 or more points off a win, a heinous record. Port are excellent travellers, covering 16 of 22 interstate when getting two or more goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Port Adelaide +22.5

Hawthorn v Carlton

Sunday 28 April, 15:20pm

Carlton are very reliable when a big underdog with a 47-29 cover record when getting at least three goals. That number jumps to an incredible 24-9 cover record when an underdog of at least three goals in a day game.

Hawthorn have covered just 4 of 16 when a favourite of more than three goals and just 1 of 7 in Launceston when favoured by 18-plus points. The Blues to get the job done again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Carlton +21.5

Richmond v Melbourne

Wednesday 24 April, 19:35pm

Richmond are in a good spot here. The Tigers have covered 12 of their last 15 at the MCG when favoured by 18 points or fewer. Off a win in the spot they are 7 of 9 against the spread. The Demons have covered just 7 of 17 at the MCG and have covered just 12 of 31 at the ground off a loss of 40-plus.

The Demons have covered just 6 of 16 after being held to 60 points or fewer. Internal problems at the Demons do little to inspire any hope of a turnaround this week.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Richmond –11.5

Essendon v Collingwood

Thursday 25 April, 15:20pm

Collingwood are in a major bet against spot here with the Magpies a poor 27-40 against the spread as a favourite at the MCG.

That number falls to 15-30 against the spread when they are favoured by double digits and 5-15 against the line when they are favoured by double digits in day matches. The Bombers have covered 13 of 20 day games at the MCG.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Essendon +11.5

Western Bulldogs v Carlton

Sunday 21 April, 1:10pm

The line is too big in this Melbourne clash between the Bulldogs and Blues. Carlton are always in a good spot playing in Victoria, covering at 57% over the last eight seasons.

They are in a top echelon spot though as a big outsider, going 41-18 against the spread getting three or more goals and 22-6 against the spread in getting three or more goals in day games. The Bulldogs have covered just 5 of 21 as a favourite of three or more goals in Melbourne.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Carlton +18.5

North Melbourne v Essendon

Friday 19 April, 4:20pm

North Melbourne were off the map when hosting Adelaide last week and after falling behind early, did right by bettors. Expecting a similar pattern this week. The Kangaroos have opened 10.5-point underdogs against rivals Essendon and that puts them in an excellent spot.

North are just money at Etihad Stadium when an outsider of more than a goal, covering 20 of 27 (with 11 straight-up wins). Off a win in the spot they are 10-4 against the line. Essendon have covered just 6 of 15 at Marvel and are 4-10 against the line since 2011 at the ground off scoring 110-plus points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – North Melbourne +9.5

West Coast v Port Adelaide

Friday 19 April, 8:10pm

West Coast are absolute money when favoured in Perth by a big number. When the popular elect by four goals or more, they have a remarkable cover rate, covering 25 of 32 dating back to 2011. They have covered 11 of their last 15 in Perth overall and they cover at 61% at home off a strong defensive showing where they concede 70 points or fewer. Port Adelaide have covered just 4 of 12 interstate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast -27.5

North Melbourne v Adelaide

Sar 13 Apr, 7:25pm

North Melbourne have typically been strong plays at Marvel Stadium, covering 23 of 38 as an outsider at the venue as an underdog. The real angle comes though when they are getting more than a goal: they are 20-7 against the spread. As an underdog off a loss at Marvel, the Roos have covered 12 of 18. The Crows have covered just 6 of 15 interstate. The Kangaroos are in a good betting spot here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – North Melbourne +9.5

Sydney v Melbourne

Thurs 11 Apr, 7:20pm

Sydney have been very poor bets at the SCG recently with not a single cover and just one win in their last six at the ground. The Swans are a poor 2-9 against the spread at their home ground in their last 11. They have covered just two of their last eight at the ground off a win and have failed to cover five on the trot there when favoured by two goals or fewer. The Demons have covered 10 of their last 17 interstate games and have covered six straight away from the MCG after scoring 110-plus.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne + 5.5

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

Fri 12 Apr, 7:50pm

Collingwood are poor betting propositions when favoured because they are such a public team. They have covered just 43% of games when the popular elect since 2011, bottom five in the AFL. When favoured by 18 or more they are 15-29 against the spread and they are 6-15 against the line when favoured by 30-plus. As a favourite of 30-plus at the MCG their cover rate falls to 25%. The Bulldogs have covered 11 of 16 at the MCG, including six of eight as an underdog.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Western Bulldogs +31.5

Carlton v Sydney

Sat 6 Apr, 1:45pm

The Blues are winless through two games but have covered against both the Tigers and the Power and look to be in an excellent spot to make it three straight. Carlton have covered a remarkable 28 of 39 day games when an outsider of two or more goals, including 27 of 35 when playing in Melbourne. The Swans have covered just 1 of 7 interstate off a loss.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Carlton +12.5

Collingwood v West Coast

Sat 6 Apr, 7:25pm

West Coast have been reliable as a big underdog in recent years, covering 9 of 12 when an underdog of two or more goals. As an interstate underdog of two-plus goals though, they have been money, going 16-4 against the line since 2011 with 10 outright wins. Collingwood are 21-34 against the spread as a favourite of 12 or more points while they are 11-23 against the spread at the MCG when favoured by two or more goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast +15.5

Adelaide v Geelong

Thu 4 Apr, 7:50pm

The Cats are absolute money as an underdog with a cover rate of 60% since 2011. They have covered 13 of their last 18 as an underdog and 8-4 against the line as an interstate underdog over the last eight seasons. They have covered 8 of 13 after scoring 120 points. Adelaide have covered just 4 of 10 after being held to 90 or fewer. Adelaide have covered just 3 of 9 at the Adelaide Oval. The Cats are in a super spot here to open the season three straight.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Geelong +2.5

Port Adelaide v Carlton

Carlton covered the big start in Round 1 but do not long in a good spot to be able to replicate that in Round 2 away to Port Adelaide. The Blues have covered just 4 of 15 interstate games when an underdog of more than three goals and have covered just 3 of 14 interstate games since mid-2015.

Port Adelaide are 18-13 against the spread at the Adelaide Oval when favoured by more than three goals. Carlton have covered just 4 of 16 away from the MCG.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Port Adelaide -30.5

West Coast v GWS

West Coast were dominant at home last year with a 9-4 cover record and have covered 63% of games in Perth across the last four seasons. The Eagles are 34-17 against the spread when favoured by more than two goals in WA and they are 12-6 against the line in their home state off a loss of 30 or more. GWS have covered just 7 of 19 interstate off scoring 100 and teams in that spot have covered at just 46% since 2011.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast -13.5

Richmond v Collingwood

Collingwood have been money as an underdog at the MCG in recent years with a 64% cover rate (16-9 against the line) in the spot since 2015. When they are an underdog off a loss at the MCG, Collingwood are 8-4 against the spread. Richmond have covered just 1 of their last 6 at the MCG as a favourite and just 1 of 6 off a win of 30 or more points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Collingwood +2.5

Brisbane v West Coast

West Coast are an extremely poor plays when travelling interstate as a favourite. When favoured by three goals or fewer outside of Perth, they are a poor 6-16 against the spread since 2011. Brisbane have covered four of their last six at home getting more than two goals. The Lions are also 13-8 against the line at home when an underdog at night.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane +13.5

Collingwood v Geelong

Geelong have been a highly reliable proposition as an underdog, covering 13 of their last 18 when going in as an outsider. The Cats were an underdog six times last season and covered four. Since 2011, they cover at 59%, the second best record of any outsider in the AFL. Collingwood cover at just 41% as a favourite at the MCG and are just 20-32 against the spread when favoured by more than a goal at the ground.

BACK – Geelong +8.5

Carlton v Richmond

Richmond have won seven straight against Carlton and the two teams are looking at very different realities in 2019 but fancy the Blues can keep this within the monster line. The Tigers have just one win greater than six goals over the Blues since 2007.

Carlton are also absolute money as a big underdog at the MCG, covering 17 of 20 when getting four goals or more at the home of football. Richmond are 8-20 against the line when favoured by 24.5 or more points at the MCG. This is as close as the two teams will be all year so very happy with the six goals and the Blues.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Carlton +36.5

AFL Season Preview

The AFL season is nearly upon us and there is plenty of value to be found in futures markets.

Premiership Winner

Expectations are as high as they have been in a generation for the Demons following a stellar 2018 season that saw them finish fourth after 11 straight seasons without finals footy. Having been without a flag since 1964, the club is no doubt trying to keep a lid on it. With one of the most impressive lists led by a midfield that oozes class – and one that has been bolstered by some astute backline recruiting – even the departure of star forward Jesse Hogan won’t worry the Dees.

Each of the last three premiers rose sharply to title success after either a sustained run of outs or floating around the fringe of the finals, so the Demons shouldn’t be discounted in the slightest. The Dees don’t have an easy draw but have the talent to post a Top 4 finish and will be far better for last year’s finals experience.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne to Win the Flag

Top of the Ladder

The Tigers are the standout play in minor premiership betting. Richmond won the flag two years ago before finishing top of the ladder last year. Minor premiers have a strong history of staying at the top for multiple seasons.

Over the last two decades, five teams have gone either back-to-back or three-peated. Of the last five teams to win the minor premiership by eight points or more, three have gone on to win it again the next season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Richmond to Win the Minor Premiership

Top 4 Value

The AFL Top 4 historically doesn’t have a lot of turnover and the best bet is nearly always the defending premier. What is most surprising this year is the price available for West Coast to post a Top 4 finish.

They possess one of the best home ground advantages in the AFL, going 35-9 over the last four regular seasons. They’ve lost none of their core and remain a defensive powerhouse with the right list balance.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Coast to finish in the Top 4


The Bombers won another off-season. Adding Dylan Shiel to the 2017 acquisition class of Adam Saad, Devon Smith, Jake Stringer. With the natural improvement in Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, and the healthy return of Joe Daniher, you can understand their optimism.

However, their top four case isn’t as strong as Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide, and potentially GWS and Geelong. Of the seven teams mentioned, Essendon has the weakest home ground advantage. We’re also unconvinced that they have the leadership to challenge the competition’s best. They’re simply under the odds to finish in the top 4 during 2019.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Essendon to finish in the Top 4

Top 8 Value

Geelong have played finals football in 13 of the last 15 seasons. As an organisation, there are few more reliable. Yet the Cats are forecast by the market to just miss out in 2019. Geelong have won fewer than 15 regular season games just twice in the Chris Scott era, a remarkable effort over his eight years in charge.

Gary Rohan and Luke Dalhaus have added depth to an already impressive list led by Patrick Dangerfield. The Cats can press for a Top 4 spot.

One thing going against the Cats is their opening seven weeks. They’ll have to play Collingwood, Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon and Adelaide on the road in that opening block and will naturally drift in price if they start poorly. A lay to back strategy seems appropriate here.

Betting Strategy

 LAY TO BACK – Geelong to finish in the Top 8

Wooden Spoon

Taking the shorts about a bet that will take close to seven months to settle but there is only one team who will be taking home the wooden spoon in the AFL this year. The Suns have surprisingly claimed only one wooden spoon but that will be added to in 2019.

They have finished bottom four in each of the last four seasons, including second-last the previous two seasons. The Suns list is about as bad as they come with hardly a single noteworthy player to call on.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Gold Coast to Win the Wooden Spoon

Brownlow Medal

After a breakout 2017 where he polled 21 Brownlow votes to finish fifth and won All-Australian honours, Josh Kelly’s 2018 season never really got going as the weight of expectation seemed to weigh heavily on both him and the Giants.

Kelly has incredible class and is hoping for an injury-free run this year after missing games in 2018. The departure of Tom Scully has Kelly the clear top man and in a contract year he will be looking to impress.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Josh Kelly to Win the Brownlow Medal

Coleman Medal

The departure of Jesse Hogan from the Demons has made Tom McDonald the main man and he ticks a lot of boxes when it comes to looking at him for the Coleman. McDonald booted 53 goals in 20 games for the Dees last year.

He is set to again play for a Top 4 team with the last six winners all coming from teams who finished sixth or higher on the ladder. The Demons kicked more goals than any other team in 2018. At double figures he is very much a bet of high confidence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tom McDonald to Win the Coleman Medal

Rising Star

Nick Blakey was projected to be top 3 for a long time before a few injuries set him back, especially around the Draft Combine. When healthy, he’s shown he can play multiple positions around the ground and have an impact.

He’ll play mainly forward for the Swans and with the main defenders going to Franklin and Reid, he should have a relatively easy time finding his space to lead into. So many key forwards are drafted to be the savior of their forward lines but Blakey has got all the time in the world to develop and that takes a lot of pressure off him.

At $26, with Longmire known to trust his draft picks to play early, he’s a massive price too win it.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Nick Blakey to Win the Rising Star

Extra Betting Resources

If you’re looking to improve your AFL betting, we recommend checking out the following resources as well:

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