Read our AFL expert tips and analysis for every game in Round 22 of the 2022 premiership season with Betfair’s AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Includes game summaries, AFL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. AFL expert tips for Round 22 of the AFL season are online now!
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AFL EXPERT TIPS | ROUND 22
BEST BACK OF THE ROUND: Hawthorn vs Richmond – Total Points over 170.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Hawthorn vs Richmond – Total Points market
BEST LAY OF THE ROUND: Essendon at < $1.91
St Kilda vs Brisbane Lions
St Kilda have fallen off a cliff post bye round, falling out of the top eight after winning three of their last 9 matches. Two of those wins came against 17th-placed West Coast (28 points) and 13th-placed Hawthorn (12 points).
St Kilda haven’t scored 100+ points in this nine-week block. They average 74.8 points in the last six weeks alone.
Brisbane, meanwhile, have been going in all-out attack mode, scoring more points for than any team this season. Their high-scoring brand has left them vulnerable in defence, but they have averaged 103 points in their last six – with their lowest score being 90.
The Lions also have a decent record at Marvel Stadium, winning their last four games at the venue.
Purely based on ability to score bulk points, the Lions should come out on top with a spot in the top four on the line.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Brisbane Lions at $1.66+
Bet now: St Kilda vs Brisbane Lions markets
Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants
The Western Bulldogs may have stumbled against the Dockers last week but are firm favourites in this must-win match.
The Dogs have won seven of their last 9 games at Marvel Stadium, including wins against Melbourne, Collingwood and Sydney. They defeated the Giants back in Round 14 by 20 points. GWS haven’t scored more than 100 points since.
The Giants performed well last week against Essendon. However, they have lost their last four home-and-away games to the Bulldogs. GWS are 13-0 against this season’s finals contenders (sides in the top 10).
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Western Bulldogs at $1.22+
Bet now: Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants markets
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
North Melbourne were able to cover the line of +45.5 last week, but this shorter line of +31.5 could be more difficult. The Kangaroos have lost by 38+ points in 14 of their last 16 matches, covering the line only four times.
Adelaide are a much better side at home, defeating Carlton and Richmond as well as a five-point loss to Collingwood. The Crows have covered the line in their last three games at Adelaide Oval.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Adelaide -31.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Adelaide vs North Melbourne markets
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Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong
Geelong are on an 11-game winning streak that many think will take them all the way to a Premiership. The Cats have covered the line in ten of their last 11 matches, including their last seven straight.
Geelong have won their last five games against Gold Coast by an average margin of 57 points. Their closest encounter was a 27-point win back in 2019.
Five of Geelong’s last six games have been won by 28+ points. Their streak of covering the lines should continue for at least one more week.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Geelong -20.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong markets
Melbourne vs Carlton
Carlton only need one more win to secure a spot in this year’s finals series, but it doesn’t look like it will be this week. The Blues have won two of their last six, with wins over West Coast and GWS at home.
Without George Hewett and Matt Kennedy, the Blues will be vulnerable in the centre, which happens to be the Demons’ strength.
To top it off, Carlton haven’t covered the line as an underdog since Round 2 this season.
Melbourne had one of the great first halves against the Magpies last week, but failed to put it on the scoreboard. They finished the game with +22 clearances and +24 contested possessions. Against any other team this would be a thrashing.
If the Demons can sustain this and kick straight, they will win comfortably.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Melbourne -21.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Melbourne vs Carlton markets
Fremantle vs West Coast Eagles
Fremantle are 13-0 when scoring 10+ goals in a match. West Coast has conceded 10+ goals in all 20 matches this season!
West Coast’s line has shortened compared to earlier in the season; however, their last two games against top eight sides have seen them lose by 63 and 35 points. It took a Josh Kennedy bag of eight goals in his farewell game to come within 16 points of 15th-placed Adelaide just last week.
Fremantle defeated the Eagles by 55 points back in Round 3 and seem to have found their form, defeating the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium whilst scoring an impressive 95 points.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Fremantle -34.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Fremantle vs West Coast Eagles markets
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Richmond vs Hawthorn
Richmond and Hawthorn have regularly had high scoring matches this season.
Both clubs rank second and third for games going over the total (with 14 and 13 respectively) and average 176.7 and 171.6 total points each. Meanwhile, six of the last 7 Richmond games have gone over the total.
Back in Round 9, when these teams last played each other – also at the MCG – the total points were 211!
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Total Points over 170.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Richmond vs Hawthorn markets
Sydney vs Collingwood
Two of the most in-form sides in the AFL are facing each other in a pivotal top four clash. Although I believe the Swans have a better form line, the Pies are hard to pass up at this line.
Collingwood have been the underdog in all seven games against top eight sides this season. The Pies covered the line in six of these games.
It’s well known that Collingwood love a close game this season. Their last seven wins have been by two or less goals. But they also have a history of tight games with Sydney. The average margin between Sydney and Collingwood for their last five encounters is 9.8 points.
I’m expecting another tight contest that should see the Pies cover the line with ease.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Collingwood +14.5 at $1.87+
Bet now: Sydney vs Collingwood markets
Essendon vs Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide’s win-loss column is looking bleak at this stage of the season, losing four games on the trot, but their brand of footy hasn’t been bad.
The Power have won their last seven straight games against bottom-10 sides, including against Essendon in Round 11.
This is Port Adelaide’s first game at Marvel Stadium this season. Last year, they had a remarkable six-from-six record at the ground!
Essendon looked like they had turned a corner after the bye, but couldn’t have played much worse against GWS last round, losing by 27 points.
Finals is out of reach for both clubs and Port Adelaide’s game is in much better order.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
LAY: Essendon at < $1.91
Bet now: Essendon vs Port Adelaide markets
