Read our AFL expert tips and analysis for every game in Round 9 of the 2022 premiership season with Betfair’s AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Includes game summaries, AFL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. AFL expert tips for Round 9 of the AFL season are online now!
AFL ROUND 9 | BEST BETS OF THE ROUND
BEST BACK OF THE ROUND: Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions – Total Points over 168.5 at $1.86+
Click here to view the Total Points market for Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions on the Betfair Exchange.
BEST LAY OF THE ROUND: Gold Coast Suns at < $2.80
Click here to view the market odds for Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle on the Betfair Exchange.
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AFL EXPERT TIPS | ROUND 9
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
Collingwood matches have scored more Total Points than any side in the AFL, averaging 183.6 points in their 8 games this season. This is thanks to their strong attack (ranked 4th) and so-so defence (ranked 13th).
The Bulldogs have struggled at times to find avenues to goal. However, with Marcus Bontempelli a likely inclusion and playing under the roof at Marvel (where they average 100.75 points this year), this shouldn’t be an issue in Round 9.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Total Points over 167.5 at $1.86+
Same Game Multi
Western Bulldogs 1-39pts, Jack Macrae 30+ Disposals, Aaron Naughton 2+ Goals
Expecting this to be a tightly contested game and can’t imagine the Bulldogs will get a chance to kick away in this matchup. The additions of Marcus Bontempelli and Alex Keath should give the Bulldogs the edge under the roof of Marvel, however the Pies are never out of the contest with their biggest loss this year being only 27 points to the high scoring Tigers.
Jack Macrae was the Bulldogs leading ball winner last week with 32 and has picked up 30+ disposals in 27 of his last 34 games. Meanwhile Aaron Naughton has kicked 2+ goals in 4 of his last 5 matches and is the Bulldogs main target in attack, kicking 19 goals in the first 8 games.
Click here to view markets for Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs on the Betfair Exchange.
Hawthorn vs Richmond
The Tigers are on a roll, winning their last 2 games and kicking an average of 21 goals per game. This has skyrocketed them to the 2nd best attack in the AFL, with Tom Lynch firing on all cylinders at the top of the Coleman Medal leaderboard.
Hawthorn have been a mixed bag this season and throughout games, struggling to put together 4 quarter performances or back-up impressive wins the following week.
Essendon’s kicking game last week generated plenty of inside 50s and set shots at goal against the Hawks, a very similar style to how Richmond play when at their best.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Richmond at $1.50+
Click here to view markets for Fremantle vs North Melbourne on the Betfair Exchange.
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
North Melbourne have had a shocker of a month, losing all 4 games by an average of 64 points, with their closest game being a 50-point loss to Carlton.
The Power are coming on the hop winning their last 3 in a row, sitting only one game and percentage out of the 8. Port Adelaide have beaten North by 52 and 36 points (in 20% less game time) in their last 2 matchups. They should cover the line of 34.5 with ease as they look for a percentage boost.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Port Adelaide -34.5 at $1.87+
Click here to view markets for North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide on the Betfair Exchange.
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St Kilda vs Geelong
It was the Cats of old in Round 8, with plenty of uncontested marks and controlling the tempo of the game, before finding the perfect target inside 50.
If they play the same way against the Saints, it will be another methodical victory, and the third loss in a row to the Top 8 hopefuls in St Kilda.
Geelong have an excellent record over the Saints, winning their last 6 in a row and Chris Scott, losing to them only once in 13 encounters – his best record against any side!
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Geelong at $1.76+
Click here to view markets for St Kilda vs Geelong on the Betfair Exchange.
Sydney vs Essendon
It’s been a theme of this season that Essendon games are free flowing and high scoring. This has been exemplified by the fact that 7 out of 8 Bombers games have gone over the Total Points.
Sydney rank fifth for attack this season, averaging 93 points, whilst the Bombers are the third-worst defence, conceding 102 points per game.
The Swans know the best way to beat Essendon is to win a shootout: their last encounter saw Sydney win 109 to 102.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Total Points over 173.5 at $1.86+
Click here to view markets for Sydney vs Essendon on the Betfair Exchange.
Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions
Adelaide games have been very high scoring in 2022, going over the line in 6 of their 8 this year including all 4 at Adelaide Oval.
They come against Brisbane who have the best attack in the AFL, averaging 106 points per game- 8.6 more than the next best side. With Eric Hipwood touted to return, Brisbane should have no trouble contributing to a high scoring game on the fast deck in Adelaide.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Total Points over 168.5 at $1.86+
Click here to view markets for Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions on the Betfair Exchange.
Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle
This matchup appeared to be a moral to go the unders at the start of the week, with Fremantle not hitting a total since Round 1. However, the Total Points have dropped to one of the lowest of the year in 146.5.
Knowing the way these two sides play and the conditions expected on the Gold Coast, it very well could still go unders. But the value for Fremantle is strong, considering they sit 2nd on the ladder with the best defence in the AFL.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Fremantle at $1.56+
LAY: Gold Coast Suns at < $2.80
Click here to view markets for Gold Coasts Suns vs Fremantle on the Betfair Exchange.
GWS Giants vs Carlton
This game’s odds have swung back and forth all week. I remained confident that a fit and firing Blues side should get the win with ease. However, the last news of Coleman Medallist Harry McKay being out injured – as well as GWS coach Leon Cameron coaching his last AFL game – has swung me towards the Giants.
Could we see a repeat of Nathan Buckley’s last game as coach, when the Pies secured a famous win over Melbourne in 2021?
If the Giants can’t get the win here, write them off for the year.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: GWS Giants at $1.78+
Click here to view markets for GWS Giants vs Carlton on the Betfair Exchange.
West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne
It’s 1st v 18th and the line is surprisingly low, considering how the Eagles have been tracking.
The Lions handed them a 75-point loss last week despite the wet weather in Brisbane. They have an average losing margin of 82.75 in their last month.
Playing at home should be assist the Eagles. However, they have lost all 4 of their games by 63.5 points at Optus Stadium – the same venue Melbourne won their Preliminary Final and Grand Final last year by 83 and 74 points respectively.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Melbourne -60.5 at $1.97+
Click here to view markets for West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne on the Betfair Exchange.
