US OPEN PROFILE PREVIEW
The US Open dates back to 1895 when Englishman Hotace Rawlins won in Newport, Rhode Island and has been won by all of the game’s greats – Hagen, Sarazen, Jones, Nelson, Hogan, Palmer, Nicklaus, Watson, Woods, Koepka. The United States’ national open returns to Oakmont for a record 10th time, extending its run as the most visited course in tournament history with Pennsylvania behind only New York for most visited state. Scottie Scheffler is looking for his first US Open and fourth major. Rory McIlroy is chasing his second major of the season after completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta in April. Bryson DeChambeau is looking to become just the fourth player since World War II to win three US Opens, as is Brooks Koepka. We are in for a magnificent week on a course that has long been regarded as the sternest test in championship golf.
COURSE OVERVIEW
Oakmont is revered as the preeminent US Open course, staging the event more than any course with the 10th running this week. It has three more future dates locked in over the next quarter-century and it has held a US Open every decade back to the 1940s. Designed in 1903 by Henry Fownes, it is link-like in nature with very few trees and no water hazards since the move in recent decades to move the course back to the ethos and look of Fownes, capped by a stunning Gil Hanse renovation two years ago. Famous features of the course include the famed church pew bunkers. Distance is crucial but it must be weaved with accuracy with the rough exceptionally high and incredibly penal. The primary defence of the course though are the famed green complexes that run as fast as any in golf. Combined with vicious slopes and small wrinkles such as gullies that run through them, they are unique and incredibly difficult. If the weather is dry and the winds get up, the winning score will be over par.
WINNING PROFILE
The US Open, despite being played on wildly different courses, has traditionally been a true test and experience matters. Winners have traditionally played between five and eight US Opens when winning while they have usually had a US Open Top 10 on their resume prior to victory. Elite golfers, as they have been for a long time now, nearly exclusively win majors. Form is also critical with golfers who have a Top 10 in one of the two majors this year favoured as well as someone who has posted a Top 12 in one of their two most recent starts.
Key Statistics
● Driving Distance
● Bogey Avoidance
● Total Driving
● Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
● All-Around
● GIR
● Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
● Scrambling
Key Correlation Courses
● Augusta National
● Colonial Country Club
● LA Country Club
● The Country Club, Brookline
● Southern Hills Country Club
STATISTICAL LEADERS
Driving Distance
PGA Tour
2. Niklas Norgaard
3. Rory McIlroy
7. Rasmus Hojgaard
8. Min Woo Lee
11. Chris Gotterup
12. Gary Woodland
LIV
1.Bryson DeChambeau
3. Joaquin Niemann
8. Jon Rahm
Bogey Avoidance
PGA Tour
1. Scottie Scheffler
6. Sepp Straka
10. Chris Gotterup
12. Nick Taylor
15. Shane Lowry
LIV
1. Jon Rahm
2. Tyrell Hatton
3. Joaquin Niemann
6. Patrick Reed
Total Driving
PGA Tour
5. Taylor Pendrith
9. Victor Perez
11. Scottie Scheffler
13. Erik Van Rooyen
14. Daniel Berger
LIV
*Not Available
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
PGA Tour
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
4. Taylor Pendrith
6. Niklaas Norgaard
10. Corey Conners
12. Ludvig Aberg
LIV
1. Bryson DeChambeau
2. Jon Rahm
4. Joaquin Niemann
All-Around
PGA Tour
1. Scottie Scheffler
3. Sepp Straka
5. Justin Thomas
6. Rory McIlroy
8. Sam Burns
9. Patrick Cantlay
12. Keegan Bradley
13. Jordan Spieth
14. Si Woo Kim
15. Erik Van Rooyen
LIV
*Not Available
GIR (Greens In Regulation)
PGA Tour
1. Sepp Straka
3. Patrick Cantlay
5. Nick Taylor
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Taylor Pendrith
9. Chris Gotterup
12. Victor Perez
13. Corey Conners
LIV
1. Jon Rahm
2. Joaquin Niemann
4. Tyrell Hatton
Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
PGA Tour
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Shane Lowry
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Sepp Straka
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Daniel Berger
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Justin Thomas
10. Rory McIlroy
11. Patrick Cantlay
LIV
*Not Available
Scrambling
PGA Tour
2. Scottie Scheffler
9. Chris Gotterup
14. Rory McIroy
LIV
1. Bryson DeChambeau
6. Patrick Reed
7. Jon Rahm
8. Cameron Smith
9. Richard Bland
10. Joaquin Niemann
BEST BACK BET
Betting Strategy
BACK: Bryson DeChambeau to win (Rated at $10)
Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is chasing his third US Open and Oakmont will play right into DeChambeau’s strengths. DeChambeau played here in 2016 as a 22yo and finished T-15. He leads LIV in Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Scrambling, he has a great US Open pedigree and form at Augusta National. Tremendous bet.
NEXT BEST BACK BET
Betting Strategy
BACK: Patrick Cantlay to win (Rated at $21)
Patrick Cantlay still has a bit to prove at major championship level but he does perform well on tough circuits and his US Open record is very good. He has finished Top 15 in each of the last four stagings including a T-3 at Pinehurst No.2 last year. He is in super form while he profiles well, ranking Top 11 in GIR, All-Around and Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
VALUE BACK BET
Betting Strategy
BACK: Keegan Bradley to win (Rated at $51)
US Ryder Cup skipper Keegan Bradley is playing at an elite level and is huge value this week. He loves North East golf. Bradley ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 12th in All-Around. He has form through three of the correlation courses. He has two US Open Top 7s including in 2022. Looks a very big price.
BEST LAY BET
Betting Strategy
LAY: Rory McIlroy to win (Rated at $21)
McIlroy’s form has gone dreadfully south since he won The Masters with a recent dispute over the legality of his driver seeing him miss the cut at the Canadian Open in his worst showing in a long time. Motivation is low and there is too much going on to consider him.
BEST TRADING OPPORTUNITY (BACK-TO-LAY)
Betting Strategy
BACK: Collin Morikawa to win (Rated at $21)
Morikawa is unquestionably an elite talent but he has not won a tournament the last three years and has found more suitable tracks than this. He ranks third in Round 1 scoring so should start fast but don’t fancy Oakmont will be to his liking. *Trade out when Morikawa hits under $17.
LAY: Collin Morikawa to win (Rated at $16)
BEST PROP BACK – FIRST ROUND LEADER
Betting Strategy
BACK: Jon Rahm 1st Round Leader (Rated at $26)
Rahm is typically a fast starter and he ranks fourth in this field in opening round scores. His worst result in his last 10 starts is a T-14 at Augusta. Rahm is absolutely flying and after slowish starts at the last two majors, will be keen to ping the lids
NEXT BEST PROP BACK – TOP REGION
Betting Strategy
BACK: Justin Rose Top English Player (Rated at $6.00)
We have 12 Englishmen teeing it up at Oakmont this week and there is value on who will finish on top with majors specialist Justin Rose. In the last five majors, Rose has finished Top 6 in three including a playoff at Augusta. He is a super bet to win this market.
Early Profile Backs
Betting Strategy
BACK: Scottie Scheffler to win (Rated at $3.25)
There is no profile in the field as good as Scheffler, who has all the skills needed to thrive at Oakmont. Short but arguably not short enough.
BACK: Joaquin Niemann to win (Rated at $21)
Niemann is long off the tee, a tremendous iron player and an out-and-out winner with four wins in eight LIV tournaments this year.
BACK: Sepp Straka to win (Rated at $31)
Straka is having an astonishing year with two wins including the elevated Truist three starts back. His all-around game, particularly his irons, have him in good stead.
Early Profile Lays
Betting Strategy
LAY: Xander Schauffele to win (Rated at $34)
Schauffele is still being priced on the form that won him two majors last year. His stats just aren’t anywhere near that in 2025.
LAY: Brooks Koepka to win (Rated at $101)
Five-time major winner Brooks Koepka would be 500-1 on his current form if he had a different name. Going far too ordinary to contend.
