Trust your eye and do the work
In an age of so many opinions, and with data so readily accessible, is it still possible for punters to find a unique edge on the competition?
Matt Welsh is one of Australia’s leading form analysts and the founder of Betsy.com.au, and he believes there is. It comes down to the tried-and-true method, trust your eye and do the work.
“In a world where so many edges have evaporated, trials and jump outs are still one where it relies on good old-fashioned replay watching and things that models and machines can’t yet pick up on,” Welsh said on Lay Back.
Instinct and Knowledge will stand the test of time
The key to trial form is instinct, and unique knowledge, and the rise of technology may not be able to take that away according to Welsh.
“In time AI will probably do a lot of that replay watching for you, but whether it will be able to emulate some of the things that someone who is trained in it and has watched trials for a long time can find, that remains to be seen.”
Welsh also feels a lot of the major competition is overlooking this key aspect of form, and putting unraced runners in the too hard basket.
“Currently with a lot of the big teams not factoring in trials and jump outs with their betting, it is still a great opportunity.
“With debutants for example you are relying on trial form to assess them and not their race form. Particularly on Betfair those runners often drift heavily, particularly late.
“The market goes looking for runners that have form, speed maps and data profiles behind them,” he added.
The key to trials
But trials aren’t just crucial for debutants, resuming runners can improve significantly from one preparation to another.
“Horses don’t come back the way they went out for a spell, and much like humans we all develop at different rates. Some horses will develop early, and some will develop later.
“What a horse does from one prep to the next can be vastly different, and that’s where trials are key.”
Welsh broke down five of the key factors when it comes to assessing trial form, and the discipline it takes:
1. Ignore opposition – Don’t worry about the opposition. You can get sucked into the opposition and think ‘this maiden galloper beat Nature Strip in a trial’. Nature Strip could be half fit, and they could ask for 400m and that’s it. Look at times, sectionals and how much pressure a horse is under when running those times. Action is vital too. You want to see them change legs and see how they move in their action and cover the ground. That can also teach you a bit about how the horse might handle a wet track as well.
2. Fast horses are gold but relaxed fast horses are the real gold. If a horse over races and behaves poorly in a trial they’ll do that in a race.
3. Use the early part of a trial to map runners- Often in a form guide it will say, ‘can’t map this horse because they are on debut’. Use the start of a trial to help you map where the horse might land.
4. Every stable has its own fingerprint- Some stables you’ll see their runners are all ridden out, other stables they’ll be really flashy trials. Learn the stables finger print. Waller runners settle back, Tom Dabernig runners tend to look flashy and strong at trials, up on speed.
5. The trial doesn’t finish at the post. You’ve got to keep watching past the line because quite often the horse will be pushed for an effort after the line.
